COVID COVID-19 Coronavirus Containment Efforts

[Astronuc]

Università di Bologna - The six strains of SARS-CoV-2
https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2020-08/udb-tss080320.php

Researchers at the University of Bologna drew from the analysis of 48,635 Coronavirus genomes, which were isolated by researchers in labs all over the world. This study was published in the journal Frontiers in Microbiology. It was then possible for researchers to map the spread and the mutations of the virus during its journey to all continents.

. . .
Currently, there are six strains of coronavirus. The original one is the L strain, that appeared in Wuhan in December 2019. Its first mutation - the S strain - appeared at the beginning of 2020, while, since mid-January 2020, we have had strains V and G. To date strain G is the most widespread: it mutated into strains GR and GH at the end of February 2020.
. . .
In North America, the most widespread strain is GH, while in South America we find the GR strain more frequently. In Asia, where the Wuhan L strain initially appeared, the spread of strains G, GH and GR is increasing. These strains landed in Asia only at the beginning of March, more than a month after their spread in Europe.

Globally, strains G, GH and GR are constantly increasing. Strain S can be found in some restricted areas in the US and Spain. The L and V strains are gradually disappearing.

 

[Astronuc]

https://coronavirus.wa.gov/news/covid-19-still-rising-washington-no-turnaround-yet

COVID-19 transmission continued to grow across the state as of early July. Best estimates place the reproductive number (the estimated number of new people each COVID-19 patient will infect) above one across the state – it’s estimated at 1.19 in western Washington and 1.08 in eastern Washington.

Test positivity in eastern Washington has been slowly decreasing; however at 14.6% it remains very high and is over three times as high as in western Washington (4.2%). The recent concentration of new cases in young adults has continued to spread into younger and older age groups. As noted in last week’s report, this trend in age distribution reflects a similar trend in Florida, where a high concentration of cases in young adults spread broadly into other age groups.

 

[Borg]

Interesting way to get infection metrics.

Sewage testing for Covid-19 begins in England

Scientists discovered early in the pandemic that infected people "shed" the virus in their feces.

Further research concluded that wastewater sampling could provide a signal of a Coronavirus outbreak up to a week earlier than medical testing.

The Department for the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs says this has begun at 44 wastewater treatment sites.

 

[atyy]

https://cns.utexas.edu/news/covid-19-vaccine-with-ut-ties-arrived-quickly-after-years-in-the-making
"In both viruses, a key protein responsible for infecting cells changes shape before and after infection. If the immune system encounters the protein in the first shape, it makes potent antibodies, but not so if the protein has taken on the second shape."

Quite a readable article about stabilizing the spike protein for use in vaccines. I suspect this is intended to have a similar function as the molecular clamp technology that the University of Queensland is using: https://www.precisionvaccinations.com/vaccines/uq-covid-19-vaccine

 

[bhobba]

Australia has spent $170 billion dollars on its responce to Covid. But the UQ vaccine people are asking for donations:
https://covid19vaccine.blackbaud-sites.com/

The Covax-19 vaccine from Flinders University can be used immediately to protect very high risk Nursing Home residents in Victoria as part of stage 2 trials. Doing that, then stage 3 trials overseas in countries like SA where it is really bad (or even here if the Victoria outbreak starts to exponentially ramp up - at the moment it's fairly flat) and manufacturing the vaccine at the same time, means we can deploy it throughout Australia in 3-4 months, according to its developer Professor Petrovsky. He just needs $10 million from the government. They said they have a committee looking into it. The government has announced however it is in negotiations to source vaccines from overseas.

This is crazy - these researchers could literally stop the pandemic in its tracks, or if like the Flu vaccine and it is only partially effective still make a huge difference. But they have to go begging for money.

I have posted about this on forums here in Aus, but it is always left in a state of pending ie awaiting approval. I often post political comments that are quite controversial and understand why they sometimes get censored - being a Mentor here I know only too well how hard it is to maintain a well run forum. But censoring this beats me totally.

The other thing that I do not understand is I thought Bill Gates was taking care of this via CEPI. Bill, if you are reading this, I know you have done a lot already, but please we still need your help.

Thanks
Bill

 

[jim mcnamara]

https://covidtracking.com/data

Even if this site mentioned above, it is worth repeating. It has detailed state by state data with exposition, especially how PCR testing changed reporting.

It also lists the state/territory websites associated with each data set. Someone like @OmCheeto, who craves details, will find lots of good and not so good sources. Have fun.

 

[Ygggdrasil]

The Covax-19 vaccine from Flinders University can be used immediately to protect very high risk Nursing Home residents in Victoria as part of stage 2 trials. Doing that, then stage 3 trials overseas in countries like SA where it is really bad (or even here if the Victoria outbreak starts to exponentially ramp up - at the moment it's fairly flat) and manufacturing the vaccine at the same time, means we can deploy it throughout Australia in 3-4 months, according to its developer Professor Petrovsky. He just needs $10 million from the government. They said they have a committee looking into it. The government has announced however it is in negotiations to source vaccines from overseas.

This is crazy - these researchers could literally stop the pandemic in its tracks, or if like the Flu vaccine and it is only partially effective still make a huge difference. But they have to go begging for money.

As noted by @atyy in a previous post, it's not clear how effective we would expect the vaccine being developed by Flinders University & the Australian company Vaxine to be. It is a protein-based vaccine, and we know from previous experience with many other vaccines as well as previous research on coronaviruses, that vaccines made from the spike protein often have problems inducing immunity to the virus. It is well known that, while protein subunit vaccines are generally safer and easier to produce than traditional vaccines (live attenuated virus or inactivated virus), it can often be difficult to induce strong immunity with these types of vaccines. This challenge is especially true for the spike glycoprotein of coronaviruses as the protein can exist in various different conformations and it is very important to target the correct conformation of the protein. Some groups (such as the University of Queensland team) are using technologies, such as molecular clamp technologies, to help ensure that the vaccine elicits antibodies to the correct form of the spike glycoprotein, but it does not seem like this is true for the Flinders/Vaxine vaccine.

Currently, the only source of information about the phase I trials of the Flinders/Vaxine vaccine that I can find come from statements by Prof Petrovsky (also founder and research director of Vaxine) to the media. None of the data from the trials has been released even through press releases from the company (the company's news page mentions beginning phase I trials in early July but does not have any information about the trials' results). Petrovsky mentions that the vaccine is safe (no adverse reactions in the 30 healthy volunteers dosed with the vaccine) and that the vaccine seems to elicit an immune response. It is certainly possible that the vaccine could elicit antibodies against the protein in the vaccine that do not protect against the virus. This is why further phase II clinical trials are needed to determine the efficacy of the vaccine against infection by the coronavirus. The safety data from the phase I trials certainly justify dosing ~400 volunteers for a phase II trial, but not dosing substantially more than that (especially in high risk groups such as the elderly) as testing just 30 healthy individuals is not sufficient to catch all safety issues.

It is by no means clear that it would be worth funding further development of the Flinders/Vaxine vaccine when there are other promising candidates, especially when the argument is based solely on comments to the media made by someone with a financial stake in the vaccine and there is no publicly available data about the vaccine that can be reviewed by independent experts.

 

[bhobba]

Fair enough comments. So let's leave the Flinders Vaccine aside for the moment. There was the issue with the money required by the UQ to bring their vaccine to fruition six months earlier and the public donations it is wanting. Why the government does not support that has me scratching my head. It is a CEPI vaccine and I thought Bill Gates was pushing its vaccines through as quickly as possible.

Thanks
Bill

 

[bhobba]

It is by no means clear that it would be worth funding further development of the Flinders/Vaxine vaccine when there are other promising candidates, especially when the argument is based solely on comments to the media made by someone with a financial stake in the vaccine and there is no publicly available data about the vaccine that can be reviewed by independent experts.

Further to Ygggdrasil's excellent reply another press release has appeared in our local newspaper (edited by me):

Start of Article

Professor Petrovsky said it was frustrating not to have the financial support of the Australian government. “That is a fact, we have applied for money and we were rejected and we have applied again and have an application currently in with the Medical Research Future Fund,” Prof Petrovsky said.

But the company has been approached by other countries to purchase the vaccine if successful. “We are talking to overseas countries about that, but no, it is a frustration we have had that we haven’t been contacted by Australian authorities,” he said. “All we can say is we have had a lot of interest from overseas governments and starting to get funding from overseas governments to support the development. “We are getting inquiries from those governments about the possibility of purchasing vaccine in the future, but we haven’t had either of those things happen with the Australian government. They have been very hands-off.

“We have been funded by the US government, so all our funding comes from the US government. We would love to give them our vaccine.” The United States has already pre-purchased 600 million doses of a vaccine under development by Pfizer, German company BioNtech and Chinese Fosun Pharma and will receive 100 million doses for US citizens by the end of the year in a deal costing $2.6 billion. The Japanese Government has also invested an undisclosed amount to supply of 120 million doses of the Pfizer vaccine to be provided in the first half of 2021.

The US government also paid $1 billion to a Johnson & Johnson vaccine in August for 100 million doses if the vaccine is approved. Europe has also moved to shore up supply of a vaccine, with Germany taking a 23 per cent state in German firm CureVac after President Donald Trump tried to lure its manufacturing to the US in March to ensure its vaccine, if successful, would be distributed to the US first. The European Commission pledged another $85 million to the firm, which already had support from a European vaccine consortium.

Currently there are more than 165 vaccines in development with 28 in human trials. University of Queensland scientists have received government funds to develop a vaccine. Australia so far has granted $5 million to the University of Queensland’s “molecular clamp” vaccine, which has also entered human trials.

“It is very mysterious to me why the Australian government after seven months have only invested $5 million in vaccines, they have given money for testing other drugs but the only money that has publicly been disclosed is $5m to UQ,” Prof Petrovsky said.

A spokesman for the federal Health Department said the Australian government is investing $19 million from the Medical Research Future Fund into vaccine development. Health Minister Greg Hunt is also in talks with the British Secretary of State for Health and Social Care regarding international licensing arrangements for COVID-19 vaccines to ensure access and supply for Australia to vaccines developed in the United Kingdom.

Greg Hunt’s officer (Greg is our health minister) also said that CSL would be enlisted to produce any vaccine onshore. “The Australian government is confident that CSL has the capacity to produce sufficient vaccine for the entire Australian population either for Australian-based vaccines or under license for leading international vaccines. Negotiations are well underway with both CSL and other leading international vaccine candidates,” the spokesman said.

End Of Article.

This does not give me a lot of confidence at all. I now think Professor Petrovsky is touting this too much for my liking and combined with his financial interest, despite the seriousness of the situation, something looks not quite right here. I think the vaccine should be watched, but in this case the caution of our government may be warranted.

Fortunately the UQ vaccine is not far behind. What concerns me about that vaccine is as I posted before they are asking for public donations to get it out six months earlier:
https://covid19vaccine.blackbaud-sites.com/

Exactly why the government is not coughing up the $4.5 million for that very laudable goal is quite strange. I am suspicious there is something going on behind the scenes that is not being disclosed in the press releases. I do know our Prime Minister has had a number of discussions with Bill Gates on the vaccine issue.

The good news though is I think most now believe a vaccine is likely. Our current situation is untenable long term. As many commentators have said - just what is the end game. A number of experts have said really there is only one answer to that - a vaccine.

Thanks
Bill

 

[Vanadium 50]

e just needs $10 million from the government. They said they have a committee looking into it.

Well, there are no fewer than 165 different vaccines under development. You might be reading more about Flinders because of local interest. Should they all get $10M? Should anyone claiming to work on a vaccine get $10M? Because if that was the policy, you'd have a lot more than 165 takers. (I call homeopathy! I want $10M to test distilled water! And maybe saline too.)

And if you say the government shouldn't give $10M to quacks and frauds, or even honest attempts with a low probability of success, someone has to separate the sheep from the goats. Isn't peer review the way to do that? And don't you want multiple viewpoints - i.e. a committee?

 

[bhobba]

Isn't peer review the way to do that? And don't you want multiple viewpoints - i.e. a committee?

Of course. I am starting to get the feeling what is being reported in the press is the tip of the iceberg of things going on behind the scenes.

Thanks
Bill

 

[bhobba]

On a totally different treatment, one of our national heroes for creating the cure for Ulcers, Thomas Borody, has come up with his own 'brew' for treating Covid consisting of Ivermectin, Zinc, and Doxycycline:
https://www.biospectrumasia.com/new...fective-triple-therapy-to-treat-covid-19.html

After my recent not so 'good' posts about vaccines, I would be interested in others views rather than make a comment myself. He believes it would stop the Victorian outbreak in 6-8 weeks and would complement a vaccine well when one comes along as most vaccines are not 100% effective.

Thanks
Bill

 

[mfb]

Anything on why exactly these three drugs beyond "because the doctor thinks they are a good combination"?

 

[Vanadium 50]

In the words of Borody (who also favors poop transplants to cure autism),

"Ivermectin proposes many potentials effects to treat a range of diseases, with its antimicrobial, antiviral, and anti-cancer properties as a wonder drug."

Doxycycline is an antibiotic, and Borody seems to be arguing for an antibiotic in the brew, not necessarily this one.

As for zinc, who doesn't like zinc? Everybody loves zinc!

 

[bhobba]

Anything on why exactly these three drugs beyond "because the doctor thinks they are a good combination"?

Other than saying he used the same strategies he used to create his peptic ulcer drug - no detail - just - trust me. Not really good enough.

Thanks
Bill

 

[Rive]

On a totally different treatment, one of our national heroes for creating the cure for Ulcers, Thomas Borody, has come up with his own 'brew' for treating Covid consisting of Ivermectin, Zinc, and Doxycycline

Amateur. Any decent one would add some vitamin and lots of snake oil too.
Also, in case of any antibiotic brew adding probiotic is a good selling point

And adding all those are expected to replace clinical trials too.
Well, kind of ... for some people

 

[Vanadium 50]

This is too important for clinical trials. Because science.

 

[bhobba]

In the words of Borody (who also favors poop transplants to cure autism),

At least he publishes in legit journals. Poop transplants seem a trendy research topic these days. Dr Michael Mosley wrote a book that amongst other things touts it. I am not a fan - but maybe I should have a more open mind

Thanks
Bill

 

[mfb]

Worldwide cases reached 20 million going by official numbers, US cases reached 5 million and Brazil reached 3 million.
~250,000 new cases, ~5000-6000 deaths per day. The latter has been pretty constant since April.

Russia is the last (partially) European country in the top 10 by cases.

 

[atyy]

On a totally different treatment, one of our national heroes for creating the cure for Ulcers, Thomas Borody, has come up with his own 'brew' for treating Covid consisting of Ivermectin, Zinc, and Doxycycline:
https://www.biospectrumasia.com/new...fective-triple-therapy-to-treat-covid-19.html

Doctors need some room to prescribe drug use off-label to do what they think is best for the patient. At the same time, without clinical trials, it will be difficult to know which treatments are effective. These are professional judgement calls and depend on the context in which medicine is being practised. Clinical trial data now suggests that Remdesivir helps reduce the length of hospital stays for COVID-19 patients, yet its first use for COVID-19 was off label and not in the context of a clinical trial. Another interesting example is dexamethasone, which from first principles was guessed by many clinicians guessed to be effective against cytokine storms thought to be a factor in COVID-19 severity, but data from earlier studies for SARS suggested that it might have no effect on outcomes and possibly slow viral clearance. So that had to be trialled, as the RECOVERY trial did. Even which trials to run requires judgement. If you run too many trials, they compete with each other for patients and administrative resources, and none will be able to reach a conclusion. It can be advantageous to have central coordination and prioritization for clinical trials in a large hospital system, or by national and international bodies. Among the links below is an interesting discussion by David Paterson, Director at The University of Queensland Centre for Clinical Research and a physician at the Royal Brisbane and Women's Hospital.

How much freedom should frontline clinicians have in treating COVID-19 patients?
Ten Common Questions (and Their Answers) About Off-label Drug Use
Treating COVID-19: Reckless cowboys vs the ivory tower academics by David Paterson (talk starts about about 20 minutes in)
Covid-19: The inside story of the RECOVERY trial

Even with a large and excellent trial like the RECOVERY trial, one must be cautious, since the results are obtained in the background of care conventions at a particular time in the UK, which may differ from elsewhere. This point is discussed in David Paterson's talk linked above at around 37:30 minutes. He also briefly mentions Ivermectin at around 44:45 minutes.

 

[bhobba]

Doctors need some room to prescribe drug use off-label to do what they think is best for the patient. At the same time, without clinical trials, it will be difficult to know which treatments are effective. These are professional judgement calls and depend on the context in which medicine is being practised.

Last night a commentator went ballistic about how the bureaucracy here in Aus is not active enough in trialing and supporting possible Covid treatments - listen to the first bit:
https://play.acast.com/s/sky-news-credlin/credlin-monday10thaugust

WOW - he was fired up. But as you correctly point out there is a lot of judgement calls involved here. Personally I am rather gung-ho as can be seen from my posts, but being a judgement call there is no objective way of deciding which approach is right.

Interestingly my Rheumatologist thinks when things get so bad you start using Dexamethasone, as I mentioned in a previous post, its time to call in a Rheumatologist. Rather than Dexamethasone he favors more modern Biologics, but they need to be administered by someone experienced in their use. He has told me all sorts of horror stories when you do not get the Biologic right. It turned me off them for ages before I started taking them, despite his urging for me to try it. We have newer ones now, like the one I am on, that have much less issues such as possible infection etc. Boy are they effective though - my ESR (it is a measure of general body inflammation) was hovering around 100. After my broken Femur ( which in itself causes inflammation while healing) settled down, last time I saw him it was - 1.

Thanks
Bill

 

[atyy]

Interestingly my Rheumatologist thinks when things get so bad you start using Dexamethasone, as I mentioned in a previous post, its time to call in a Rheumatologist. Rather than Dexamethasone he favors more modern Biologics, but they need to be administered by someone experienced in their use. He has told me all sorts of horror stories when you do not get the Biologic right. It turned me off them for ages before I started taking them, despite his urging for me to try it. We have newer ones now, like the one I am on, that have much less issues such as possible infection etc. Boy are they effective though - my ESR (it is a measure of general body inflammation) was hovering around 100. After my broken Femur ( which in itself causes inflammation while healing) settled down, last time I saw him it was - 1.

One of the interesting things I've come across is an attempt to use vagus nerve stimulation for COVID-19. It's also being tested for arthritis. In both cases the idea is that it reduces inflammation:
https://spectrum.ieee.org/the-human...lator-gets-emergency-approval-for-covid19-use
https://www.healio.com/news/rheumat...tients-with-ra-for-whom-there-were-no-options

 

[Astronuc]

AP reports on new cases in NZ.

WELLINGTON, New Zealand (AP) — Health authorities in New Zealand were scrambling Wednesday to trace the source of a new outbreak of the Coronavirus as the nation's largest city went back into lockdown.

Authorities have found four cases of the virus in one Auckland household from an unknown source, the first reported cases of local transmission in the country in 102 days. The news came as an unpleasant surprise to many and raised questions about whether the nation's general election would go ahead as planned next month.

Authorities said two of the people who had tested positive had traveled to the tourist city of Rotorua last weekend while suffering symptoms, and they were now trying to track their movements.
. . .
The outbreak was found after a man in his 50s went to his doctor Monday with symptoms and was swabbed twice, testing positive both times. Six other people in the man’s household were then tested, with three more testing positive.

Apparently, Aucklanders have been “strongly encouraged” but not mandated to wear masks, and that authorities were releasing 5 million masks from a central supply. New Zealanders have not widely worn masks before, even though authorities have been urging people to buy them or fashion them from scarves or bandannas just in case.

If one has respiratory symptoms, one should definitely wear a mask to prevent infection of others. Not knowing who is infected, one should wear a mask in public in order to prevent catching the virus, to the extent possible.

 

[mfb]

Authorities said two of the people who had tested positive had traveled to the tourist city of Rotorua last weekend while suffering symptoms

I really wonder how much easier it would be to contain the pandemic without people like them.

If one has respiratory symptoms, one should definitely wear a mask to prevent infection others.

Or ideally stay at home. And certainly not travel.

 

[bhobba]

I really wonder how much easier it would be to contain the pandemic without people like them.Or ideally stay at home. And certainly not travel.

We have had no community transmission here in Qld, so I do not bother wearing a mask yet. But I have no doubt it will come. However it will not worry me at all because I hardly go out. I do know people, even those not in a high risk category that also do that. I think more people should. I wince at busses that have been stopped at our state borders full of what could only be described as people that should be in an aged care facility if that was not so dangerous. They should be at home. I know everyone can't, but IMHO it is the best option for those that can.

Thanks
Bill

 

[bhobba]

I am quite gung ho about deploying a vaccine, but what do people think of Russia approving theirs. Many think they have not done stage 3 trials. It's use at the moment is purely voluntary. Do people think releasing a vaccine out there for stage 3 trials in the general population a good idea - which seems the basic idea behind what Russia is doing. All are of course actually producing the Vaccine in large quantities, so it can be used immediately once considered safe. Most commentators now think we will have one by mid next year - done without skipping steps.

While I am gung ho I think the best approach is to - yes produce the vaccine during stage 3 trials, but carry out all the stages before general deployment. We can of course expedite publishing results and peer review using the internet to get the results out there and under scrutiny as quickly as possible. I think that way middle next year is probably realistic.

Thanks
Bill

 

[Vanadium 50]

It's use at the moment is purely voluntary.

Insofar as "voluntary" is a thing in Russia. (And I wouldn't say even in the US "if you non-essentials want to get back to work, you better volunteer")

 

[bhobba]

Good point. We need 3 volunteers - you, you and you.

Thanks
Bill

 

[Astronuc]

Or ideally stay at home. And certainly not travel.

Yes, of course. The context is out in public, which one has to do at some point unless one is fully self-sufficient. I usually go out in public to buy food and necessities, or go out somewhere just to get out, but maintain distance from others. I wear a mask within breathing distance of others.

 

[Ygggdrasil]

I am quite gung ho about deploying a vaccine, but what do people think of Russia approving theirs. Many think they have not done stage 3 trials. It's use at the moment is purely voluntary. Do people think releasing a vaccine out there for stage 3 trials in the general population a good idea - which seems the basic idea behind what Russia is doing. All are of course actually producing the Vaccine in large quantities, so it can be used immediately once considered safe. Most commentators now think we will have one by mid next year - done without skipping steps.

While I am gung ho I think the best approach is to - yes produce the vaccine during stage 3 trials, but carry out all the stages before general deployment. We can of course expedite publishing results and peer review using the internet to get the results out there and under scrutiny as quickly as possible. I think that way middle next year is probably realistic.

Thanks
Bill

See the discussion in this thread regarding the relative risks of skipping large-scale vaccine trials: https://www.physicsforums.com/threads/covid-vaccine-phase-3-significance.992337/

Note that it's unclear how much clinical testing the Russian vaccine has undergone (media reports suggest that phase I testing has likely completed, but not phase II testing). In all likelihood, approval of the vaccine by the Russian government is just a political stunt.

 

[Borg]

See the discussion in this thread regarding the relative risks of skipping large-scale vaccine trials: https://www.physicsforums.com/threads/covid-vaccine-phase-3-significance.992337/

Note that it's unclear how much clinical testing the Russian vaccine has undergone (media reports suggest that phase I testing has likely completed, but not phase II testing). In all likelihood, approval of the vaccine by the Russian government is just a political stunt.

From your media reports link:

In the meantime, according to certain Western media intelligence agencies from the UK, US, and Canada reported recently that Russian hackers were on the prowl, working to penetrate Western research groups working on COVID-19 vaccines. The TrialSite cannot verify if this is true, but the implication would be that Russian agents are seeking to steal proprietary vaccine information. According to CNN, The UK’s National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC) explained it was 95% certain the operation originated from APT29 (aka “The Dukes” or “Cozy Bear”), Russian hacking gangs that could be part of Russian intelligence operations.

Why worry about research and phase III trials?

 

[Astronuc]

CBS reports "Coronavirus may spread much farther than 6 feet in indoors"
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-spreads-farther-six-feet-indoor-spaces-poor-ventilation/

Well, duh!

Analyzing air samples in a hospital room, Lednicky's team found infectious virus can spread through the air — up to 16 feet away from an infected patient — through tiny droplets called aerosols.

"Oh, this is the smoking gun everyone has been asking for!" said Linsey Marr, a civil and environmental engineering professor at Virginia Tech who studies how viruses travel through the air.

And common areas in buildings (e.g., elevators, lobbies, corridoors, class rooms, . . . ), buses, planes and trains!

Wear a mask in public, or better yet, stay home (or in the wilderness) to the extent possible.

 

[bhobba]

Well, duh!

I thought that was found out ages ago when the stance on masks was changed. Some of this tuff beats me. Russia just going phase 1 trials then releasing the vaccine - even Professor Petrovsky does not want to do that and he is very gung ho - he just wants to include nursing home residents in the phase 2 trial - which as discussed in previous posts is probably not a good idea. After stage 2 he wants a 30,000 stage 3 trial before release.

Thanks
Bill

 

[bhobba]

In all likelihood, approval of the vaccine by the Russian government is just a political stunt.

It's a winner take all gamble using human lives. A discussion about it I heard last night with a group of economists said if it works, which it may, then the economic benefits would be enormous. But the inherent danger shows a massive disregard for human safety.

Thanks
Bill

 

[dlgoff]

This looks like a promising way to track the virus.

The University of Kansas School of Engineering and the Kansas Department of Health and Environment have expanded a project to detect COVID-19 virus in the wastewater systems of local communities across the state.

 

[Ygggdrasil]

The FDA has made an emergency use authorization for a new saliva-based COVID-19 test:

The new test, which is called SalivaDirect and was developed by researchers at the Yale School of Public Health, allows saliva samples to be collected in any sterile container. It is a much less invasive process than the nasal swabs currently used to test for the virus that causes Covid-19, but one that has so far yielded highly sensitive and similar results. The test, which also avoids a key step that has caused shortages of chemical reagents used in other tests, can run approximately 90 samples in fewer than three hours in a lab, although the number can be greater in big labs with automation.

Moreover, Yale intends to provide its “open source” testing protocol to laboratories around the country. Other labs can now adopt the method while using a variety of commercially available testing components that can reduce costs, speed turnaround times and increase testing frequency, according to the FDA. And because the reagents for the test cost less than $5, the Yale researchers estimated labs should charge about $10 per sample, although that remains to be seen. The testing method is available immediately, but the researchers added it can be scaled up quickly for use in the coming weeks.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/08/15...t-for-covid-19-opening-door-to-wider-testing/

Here is a non-peer-reviewed pre-print describing the method: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.08.03.20167791v1

The NBA helped provide samples to study the efficacy of their test: https://news.yale.edu/2020/06/22/yale-and-nba-partner-study-efficacy-new-covid-19-test

 

[Keith_McClary]

Russia just going phase 1 trials then releasing the vaccine

Most of the media got this wrong . This is what is happening:

Post-registration studies of a Russian vaccine against a new type of Coronavirus may begin in 7-10 days, reports TASS with reference to the director of the National Research Center (SIC) of Epidemiology and Microbiology named after N.F. Gamaleya of the Ministry of Health Alexander Gintsburg.

Several tens of thousands of people will take part in the post-registration studies, Gunzburg noted. He added that research will be carried out on the territory of the Moscow region.

Already on August 17, the Ministry of Health will receive the first version of the research protocol, Gunzburg said. According to him, the protocol can be approved within a week, which will allow starting research in 7-10 days.

On August 11, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that Russia was the first in the world to register a Coronavirus vaccine. It was named Sputnik V.

Google translate of
https://www.gazeta.ru/science/news/2020/08/16/n_14805607.shtml

 

[mfb]

So what exactly is this "registration" then? If it's the first in the world it can't be just a larger test phase.

 

[russ_watters]

Sounds to me like Russia created a meaningless status for the purpose of being first to achieve it. Whooptey-doo.

 

[Keith_McClary]

So what exactly is this "registration" then?

Similar to "emergency use authorization" by the US FDA?
Russia’s approval of a COVID-19 vaccine is less than meets the press release

 

[Astronuc]

Long-haulers with COVID-19 are those who have persistent symptoms after months. I heard one who has had symptoms for 97 days and counting.

https://www.technologyreview.com/20...rs-are-organizing-online-to-study-themselves/

When I spoke to her 135 days after she initially fell ill, Davis was still sick, with daily fevers, joint pain, cognitive issues, and more. But she feels a renewed sense of purpose thanks to the Patient-Led Research team.

Seemingly healthy persons in their 30s and 40s have problems for months. Perhaps, the most serious is blood clots in lungs, organs and brain.
https://www.deseret.com/utah/2020/8...19-count-in-2-months-drop-in-hospitalizations

CDC assessment - https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6930e1.htm?s_cid=mm6930e1_w

 

[bhobba]

We all will soon be facing a hard dilemma:
https://1daysooner.org/

I of course have an opinion, but really we each must make up our own mind on this.

Thanks
Bill

 

[mfb]

Yet another church-induced outbreak in South Korea

The health ministry and Seoul’s city government have filed two separate criminal complaints against Jun for allegedly disrupting official efforts to contain the virus by ignoring orders to self-isolate, discouraging worshipers from getting tested and under-reporting the church’s membership to avoid broader quarantines.

 

[DrClaude]

Some American universities have now decided not to re-open in the fall:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-college-classess-campus-211709998.html

 

[Astronuc]

'Silent spreaders' of COVID-19: Kids who seem healthy may be more contagious than sick adults, study says
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news...ptoms-more-contagious-than-adults/3392088001/

A new study adds to growing evidence that children are not immune to COVID-19 and may even play a larger role in community spread than previously thought.

Researchers at Massachusetts General Hospital and Mass General Hospital for Children found that among 192 children, 49 tested positive for the Coronavirus and had significantly higher levels of virus in their airways than hospitalized adults in intensive care units, according to the study published Thursday in the Journal of Pediatrics.

“Kids are not immune from this infection, and their symptoms don’t correlate with exposure and infection,” said Dr. Alessio Fasano, senior author and director of the Mucosal Immunology and Biology Researcher Center at Massachusetts General Hospital.

 

[nsaspook]

https://apnews.com/489bac2e4af8ddc0ea1a745dbf3529db

SEOUL, South Korea (AP) — South Korea is banning large gatherings, closing beaches, shutting nightspots and churches and removing fans from professional sports in strict new measures announced Saturday as it battles the spread of the coronavirus.
...
KCDC Director Jeong Eun-kyeong has endorsed even stronger restrictions. If there’s no sign that the virus spread is slowing after the weekend, she said the country should consider elevating social distancing measures to “Level 3,” which includes prohibiting gatherings of more than 10 people, shutting schools, halting professional sports and advising private companies to have employees work from home.

 

[Ygggdrasil]

Some American universities have now decided not to re-open in the fall:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-college-classess-campus-211709998.html

Meanwhile, the University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign invented and got an FDA EUA for a new saliva-based COVID-19 test and conducted >30k tests last week. This allowed them to quickly quarantine ~100 students who arrived to campus with the virus: https://www.chicagotribune.com/news...0200821-amrmeeuhfbcnld5bic2mqia6be-story.html

For perspective, the state of Illinois conducted ~170k tests and the US conducted ~2.6M tests over the same time period, according to the COVID tracking project. So, one single university accounts for nearly 20% of tests in Illinois and ~1% of tests in the US (pretty good given that UIUC has only ~62k faculty, students and staff versus populations of 13M and 330M for IL and the USA, respectively).

If they are successful at stopping community transmission through massive scale testing, isolating and contact tracing, perhaps they could serve as a good model for other universities to proceed.

 

[Haborix]

Duke University has also had some of their undergraduates return to campus recently. They appear to be keeping a weekly log of testing and results, available on this site. It appears they will be using pooled testing throughout the semester to monitor the spread of the virus.

 

[Rive]

Kind of fits with the expectations, I think...

The information technology worker didn’t develop any symptoms from his second infection, which might indicate “subsequent infections may be milder,” the researchers said.

One case is not statistics, but I think there will be more - soon.

 

[Vanadium 50]

Faye Flam has an interesting piece on Bloomberg. (Disclaimer: I have met Ms. Flam and dislike her intensely. She is not on my Christmas card list) It's titled: "Covid Spread Can’t Only Be Explained by Who’s Being ‘Bad’" and subtitled "Seeing disease in moral terms seems to be the American way. But scientists still have a lot of questions."

The mainstream narrative is that it’s all about good behavior when cases go down — mask wearing and giving up our social lives for the greater good. And conversely, bad behavior must be what makes them go up. We talk about certain regions having the virus “under control,” as if falling cases are purely a matter of will-power. A sort of moral reasoning is filling in for evidence.

But why, then, have cases plummeted in Sweden, where mask wearing is a rarity?

This is the time to use scientific methods to understand what’s happening.

One point she brings up is the issue of masks. (The following is my view) The evidence that masks are helpful on top over everything else is quite weak. Mask-wearing falls into the "it stands to reason" category - especially since the cost is low. I have also seen people jammed into buses, but it's all OK because "the mask will protect them". So the net impact may actually be negative.