TeethWhitener
Science Advisor
Gold Member
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Alright I’ve calmed down a bit. Apologies to @hutchphd for getting heated.
One approach that is related but which I find significantly more ethically palatable is based on the fact that it’s really quite a fast process (or at least it can be) to prototype RNA vaccines. Once the genome of a pathogen is known and understood, modified RNA sequences corresponding to promising immunological targets can be synthesized and rolled out in a matter of days to weeks. (If I recall correctly, Pfizer had a prototype vax within 2-3 days of the publication of the SARS-CoV-2 genome sequence.) If a situation arose which were as dire as you lay out, I could condone a scenario where an RNA vax were rolled out untested to the (willing) general public, with the caveat that it is untested and the requirement to be monitored for possible exposure/vaccine efficacy. Basically, the entire vaccine rollout would be one big clinical trial.
One bottleneck would be synthesis of vaccine material, but oligonucleotide synthesis is largely automated now, so one could dream up mass manufactured black boxes to synthesize the requisite RNA in a distributed fashion at scale.
All of this technology is either already available or very near-term and already in exploratory phases for a number of applications. In the long run, a priori prediction of virulence and transmissibility is a worthy goal, but my gut feeling is that it’s either 1) 50 years away, or 2) pending some machine learning breakthrough (so much closer than we anticipate).
One approach that is related but which I find significantly more ethically palatable is based on the fact that it’s really quite a fast process (or at least it can be) to prototype RNA vaccines. Once the genome of a pathogen is known and understood, modified RNA sequences corresponding to promising immunological targets can be synthesized and rolled out in a matter of days to weeks. (If I recall correctly, Pfizer had a prototype vax within 2-3 days of the publication of the SARS-CoV-2 genome sequence.) If a situation arose which were as dire as you lay out, I could condone a scenario where an RNA vax were rolled out untested to the (willing) general public, with the caveat that it is untested and the requirement to be monitored for possible exposure/vaccine efficacy. Basically, the entire vaccine rollout would be one big clinical trial.
One bottleneck would be synthesis of vaccine material, but oligonucleotide synthesis is largely automated now, so one could dream up mass manufactured black boxes to synthesize the requisite RNA in a distributed fashion at scale.
All of this technology is either already available or very near-term and already in exploratory phases for a number of applications. In the long run, a priori prediction of virulence and transmissibility is a worthy goal, but my gut feeling is that it’s either 1) 50 years away, or 2) pending some machine learning breakthrough (so much closer than we anticipate).