FLUKEY OR SPOOKY? Incredible real-life coincidences or are they?

[Ivan Seeking]

I was reminded of this today: There was a skit on the show "Saturday Night Live", way back with the original crew, in which John Belushi and Gilda Radner [two of the original cast members] were each playing them self, but many years in the future. The set-up was that as the only surviving cast members, now old and gray, together they walked around a graveyard where the rest of the cast was buried, and they reminisced about the good ole days.

Gilda and John were the first two cast members to die.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Also, take a look at the strange similarities between Kennedy and Lincoln.
http://www.school-for-champions.com/history/lincolnjfk.htm

 

[Far Star]

Gilda and John were the first two cast members to die.

Hadn't thought of that. More spooky than fluky.

 

[bassplayer142]

I have a few stories of things like this. The first one is a number one like many of you had but I feel mine is really significant. First of all the number is 817. Many times I have seen it and showed people to where they think it is kind of funny. I remember driving by a house and seeing it on a mailbox just staring at me. When I bought my used truck I opened the hood and under it near the radiator is 8-17 stamped on there. It wasn't some number that came when the truck was made. It's like a yellows stamp kind of crooked and off centered like someone put it there obviously before I owned it. Next comes a even more unprobable part. My birthday is August 17 which is 8-17. Did I mention that My birth certificate says I was born at 8:17 (pm I think). All these can be proved if someone is interested. I will try to think of more for later

 

[phlegmy]

my weirdest co-incidence was about billy joel!

i had a dream (just before waking up) with that billy joel song
"in the middle of the night... etc"
i mentioned it to my mother over breakfast. she was going to give me a lift into town, i can't remember for what.
so halfways to town i turn on the radio and, you guessed it, that exact billy joel song started playing. and it dosn't get much airtime (not sure if I've heard it since). anyway my mother and i were very amused at this!

now the chances of that happening are remote but well within possibility but...

we arrived home after about an hour or so and the postman had been. and there was a letter for me, it was from an old school friend i hadnt seen in about 2yrs and the letter started out as a how do you do type letter, he wrote that he'd remembered that i was BIG into music and he thought that i "had what it takes" and to encourage me he included the story of another young musician, which took up more than half the letter, that musician was Billy joel! that was the only time i heard from the guy in the last 7 years!

 

[Huckleberry]

When I was in the navy I was eating lunch on the ship with a friend. He was the weatherman. We had known each other for several months, perhaps a year, but had never talked about our past. Somehow the conversation came to where we were from. He said he was from Pennsylvania. I told him I had lived there for a year when I was a child. Turns out we lived in the same small town. We had a friend in common. They had the same first name. A year or so later I met him again at my friends house while I was visiting for the holidays.

Things like that happened a lot when I was in the military, with enough frequency that they weren't that surprising anymore. The number of people that I interacted with was much greater than it is now. Now I see the same people every day and there doesn't seem to be as many surprising coincidences. When I'm outside of a familiar area or activity I notice these things more.

 

[Anticitizen]

I have two.

I'm originally from Knoxville, Tennessee.

When I was in sixth grade, my parents decided to do a road trip of the northeastern coast.

We spent two days in Washington, DC.

So I'm in the Smithsonian Air and Space Museum, staring blandly at Ross Perot's helicopter, and I look down, and on the other side of the helicopter is one of my schoolmates and friends, also looking at the helicopter. His parents also had decided on a Northern trip for the summer.

I saw him the next day at the Natural History Museum.

I knew from talking to him that he lived only a few blocks away from my house, but I never saw him in my own town before or after that event outside of school. Kinda wacky that the only place I'd see him outside of school would be many hundreds of miles away.

The second is freakier in my mind...

Around 18-19 years old or so, I randomly grew a taste for island music of several flavors - calypso, reggae, mambo, etc.

I was visiting a friend in a nearby city, Oak Ridge (one of the two birthplaces of the atomic bomb) which is about 15 miles away from Knoxville.

We stopped into a thrift store at random.

Well, I started sifting through the vinyl records that one inevitably finds in a thift shop. (I had a turntable at home). I found some "south seas" music records, purchased them, and took them home.

Well, I pull the first record out of its cardboard sleeve, and find that the person that owned the record was the sort of person that puts their name and address on everything. The fact that someone would put their name and address on a vinyl record of generic mambo tunes is unlikely enough, because when are you going to ever lose a freakin' record?

Well, the name was unfamiliar, but the address was MY ADDRESS.

The home where my family lived, and still lives, (in a neighboring city of 250,000+ people!) for over 25 years!

Blew my teenage mind. Against all odds, someone decades prior liked the same obscure sort of music that I liked, in the same obscure (nowadays) medium that I employed (vinyl), that decided to put their name and address on the record, and lived in the home i was pottytrained in and graduated high school in - then gave their vinyl record to a thrift store in a neighboring city where they presumably moved, where I many years later walked in and purchased it.

Don't even know how to approach the odds on that one.

 

[DHFabian]

I'll go with fluky, considering the international nature of online stuff. I was doing some research this morning on alleged paranormal activities around southern Wisconsin. I came across a 2007 post on this board from "sas3" who mentioned being from Tichigan Lake. I grew up in Tichigan (left in the mid-1970s, and moved to Jefferson Co by way of California...don't ask). The writer mentioned a concert by the Moody Blues (my favorite band since the late 1960s)and this post was written on my birthday (July 12). Coincidences happen.

 

[DaveC426913]

I'll go with fluky, considering the international nature of online stuff. I was doing some research this morning on alleged paranormal activities around southern Wisconsin. I came across a 2007 post on this board from "sas3" who mentioned being from Tichigan Lake. I grew up in Tichigan (left in the mid-1970s, and moved to Jefferson Co by way of California...don't ask). The writer mentioned a concert by the Moody Blues (my favorite band since the late 1960s)and this post was written on my birthday (July 12). Coincidences happen.

You know what spooky activity I just saw??

I just saw a thread rise from the dead, having been buried for almost three years! Whoa!

 

[GeorginaS]

Yeah, but it works so nicely with the current "Ghost Story" thread.

Oooo was that a coincidence? Or did someone make that happen?

 

[DHFabian]

Nah, didn't rise from the dead. I just spend enough time wandering through the Internet crypts
(the fun of obscure researches). The point is, you can find an "eerie" chain of coincidence in nearly anything, if you look long enough. There's nothing mystical or spooky about it. It just happens.

 

[DaveC426913]

The point is, you can find an "eerie" chain of coincidence in nearly anything, if you look long enough. There's nothing mystical or spooky about it. It just happens.

I agree.

I often have to explain that "coincindences happen. And they don't need to be explained; they're coincidences - that's the definition."

 

[Ivan Seeking]

This is the problem that I see: What are the odds?

Far more often than not, we have no idea what the odds for any particular event might be, so we can only assume that all "coincidences" can be explained as statistical flukes. But we can't state that as a fact. We have no way to test the claim. We have no model by which to make predictions and then test the frequency of such events. If coincidences occur more often than they should, we wouldn't have any way to know.

 

[zoobyshoe]

I agree.

I often have to explain that "coincindences happen. And they don't need to be explained; they're coincidences - that's the definition."

Remember this next time you see something in a painting that looks like a brain.

 

[baywax]

I agree.

I often have to explain that "coincindences happen. And they don't need to be explained; they're coincidences - that's the definition."

Actually the definition of coincidence would be two incidences taking place at the same time... which happens all the time.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

There is no need for language trivia or discussion of the trivial case. We are talking about events that are perceived to be statistically unlikely. The trouble is that we have to define what statistical relationship exists. And then determine how often one would expect a 1:100, or 1:1,000,000 event, or whatever the odds are, to occur.

 

[Thetom]

The TV programme Million2One airs a lot of real-life incidents like some of the above, and in the end calculates the probability of that happening.

There's this old man, somewhere in England. His daughter takes care of him, but for a few hours on a particular day, she goes back to her house, which was just down the street (or somewhere pretty close by). During those fateful hours, the old man has a heart attack. He tries to call his daughter, but by mistake dials the wrong number. But guess what, he dials to a public phone in a quiet corridor in a city hospital. And who was walking by when the phone rang? His granddaughter, who happens to be working as a nurse there! He was eventually brought to the hospital and was saved.

Wow! That is... uncanny :) What are the odds of that? He was a very fluky guy (or very spooky, depending on your views).

There can't be millions of people on their death-beds all trying to call help and getting the wrong number. Enough so that it becomes probable that one would get the right wrong number at some point. Can there?

 

[DaveC426913]

Remember this next time you see something in a painting that looks like a brain.

OK, but ten things coming together at the same time and place doesn't really fit coincidence.

 

[GeorginaS]

There is no need for language trivia or discussion of the trivial case. We are talking about events that are perceived to be statistically unlikely. The trouble is that we have to define what statistical relationship exists. And then determine how often one would expect a 1:100, or 1:1,000,000 event, or whatever the odds are, to occur.

I think that the key word in this is "perceived". Perceived as statistically unlikely. I think that's beginning with the faulty premise that there is a statistical unlikelihood to begin with.

The name of this thread is "incredible real-life coincidences" when, really, I don't think they stretch credulity, but they are awfully darned interesting.

How many individual events happen to every person each and every day? We only pay attention to the ones that have any significance or meaning to us personally because we'd otherwise be overwhelmed with information. Add to that that our brains are designed to perceive patterns and then we also have a tendency to group together supporting ideas that include evidence of that pattern.

A simple one is how many people do we walk past every day? We don't take note of the majority of them nor does it seem remarkable to us that there are other people in public places where we are. But run into someone at Safeway who you haven't seen since high school 30 years ago, and you both attended a high school on the opposite end of the country, and now you have a "what are the chances?" event. It's not a statistical question. You've already been in that store day in and out with hundreds and hundreds of people. Why is running into someone you know less likely than running into all kinds of people you don't know? You don't pay attention to one grouping, but you pay attention to the other grouping.

And I think if we peer too closely at coincidences -- which are, I think, really just regular events we pay attention to rather than not -- we begin wandering into synchronicity and meaning and whatnot. (One especially has to be careful of the "whatnot". It sneaks up on you.)

 

[QuanticEnigma]

You've already been in that store day in and out with hundreds and hundreds of people. Why is running into someone you know less likely than running into all kinds of people you don't know? You don't pay attention to one grouping, but you pay attention to the other grouping.

The probability of running into someone you know is much higher than running into somebody you haven't seen for 30 years and on the other side of the country, I think it's the latter that's more significant in that situation. This is a pretty trivial point, but the number of people you don't know far outnumbers the number of which you do know, so it would make sense you would pay attention to that minority when you are out. That being said, I don't think you would walk into a store, expecting to see someone from 30 years ago, and from the other side of the country.

 

[zoobyshoe]

There is no need for language trivia or discussion of the trivial case. We are talking about events that are perceived to be statistically unlikely. The trouble is that we have to define what statistical relationship exists. And then determine how often one would expect a 1:100, or 1:1,000,000 event, or whatever the odds are, to occur.

I brought this up before a few years back, but I guess it bears repeating. Feynman deftly pointed out the irrelevancy of statistical probability to any given event:

"You know, the most amazing thing happened to me tonight. I was coming here, on the way to the lecture, and I came in through the parking lot. And you won't believe what happened. I saw a car with the license plate ARW 357. Can you imagine? Of all the millions of license plates in the state, what was the chance I would see that particular one tonight? Amazing!"

Any given specific event is statistically extremely improbable. The more specifically you define the event the more true that becomes (that particular license plate on that particular night!). As Georgina pointed out, we only notice the incredible improbability when the specific event has personal significance. The odds of running into a person you haven't seen in 30 years at the store one day are actually about the same as the odds of running into a specific individual you've never encountered before, if only you appreciate how specific that specific individual actually is, and how specific that time and place. Each stranger, each time, each place, is a very specific. Once you pay attention to that, and focus on how specific they are, the odds of you encountering them become less and less probable. We beat unbelievable odds moment by moment, all day long.

As Georgina emphasized, the key word is "perceived". We are pattern-seeking creatures, with a distinct leaning toward giving everything a kind of "pattern test". Very small whiffs of familiarity put us on alert and we test them to see if they fit a pattern we know. By this mechanism, a circle, two dots and an arc are "recognized" as a smiling face: , when in fact it bears no authentic resemblance to any face in nature. We even accept it rotated 90 degrees, without the circle :) It's a stripped down abstraction that never-the-less works due to our propensity for checking for patterns at many different levels of perception. Certain kinds of specificity take on extraordinary importance. Other kinds, though equally specific, are ignored, discounted.

Calulating the probability of an event ends up being immaterial in determining if it was a coincidence or not. If you define the event according to certain parameters it become statistically impossible that it should ever occur. Define it according to other parameters, and it becomes inevitable that it should occur.

 

[QuanticEnigma]

As Georgina pointed out, we only notice the incredible improbability when the specific event has personal significance. The odds of running into a person you haven't seen in 30 years at the store one day are actually about the same as the odds of running into a specific individual you've never encountered before, if only you appreciate how specific that specific individual actually is, and how specific that time and place. Each stranger, each time, each place, is a very specific. Once you pay attention to that, and focus on how specific they are, the odds of you encountering them become less and less probable. We beat unbelievable odds moment by moment, all day long.

Thanks for clarifying that, I think I was referring to all strangers, not a particular individual. But maybe a person isn't considered "particular" until you actually acknowledge them. For example, the probably of seeing "a person" in the street is very high, but if you find out his name and then hope to see him again, that probability drastically reduces. So, really, its the probability of finding him again that's low, not the probability of finding him in the first place. Since you've already seen the friend from 30 years ago, the chance of finding them again is very low, whereas the chance of finding a stranger for the first time is very high.

 

[turbo]

https://www.physicsforums.com/showpost.php?p=1152374&postcount=8

Old post, but still a "wow" moment.

 

[GeorginaS]

Any given specific event is statistically extremely improbable.

Thank you for all of that, Zooby. You fleshed those thoughts out far more coherently than I did.

 

[DaveC426913]

"You know, the most amazing thing happened to me tonight. I was coming here, on the way to the lecture, and I came in through the parking lot. And you won't believe what happened. I saw a car with the license plate ARW 357. Can you imagine? Of all the millions of license plates in the state, what was the chance I would see that particular one tonight? Amazing!"

The one I've always used (because I invented it) is:

"More babies are born during a full moon than any other time. Just ask any nurse; they'll corroborate it."

To which my response is: when is the last time a nurse, while attending a birth, looked out the window and remarked "Wow, another baby born during a waning gibbous Moon!"?

 

[zoobyshoe]

Thanks for clarifying that, I think I was referring to all strangers, not a particular individual. But maybe a person isn't considered "particular" until you actually acknowledge them. For example, the probably of seeing "a person" in the street is very high, but if you find out his name and then hope to see him again, that probability drastically reduces. So, really, its the probability of finding him again that's low, not the probability of finding him in the first place. Since you've already seen the friend from 30 years ago, the chance of finding them again is very low, whereas the chance of finding a stranger for the first time is very high.

You're missing Feyman's point. A "friend from 30 years ago" is much more specific than a "stranger", just like the license plate ARW 357 is vastly more specific than just "a license plate." To appreciate how unlikely encountering the stranger is, even for the very first time, you have to define them at least as specifically as the friend from 30 years ago. The stranger has to become something like: A 179 lb. blonde man wearing a leather jacket over a purple t-shirt.

You won't notice how specific that man is under normal circumstances because the specificity of his weighing 179 lbs, being blonde, and wearing a leather jacket over a purple t-shirt all at once means nothing to you. Regardless, it's pretty specific and the odds of you encountering a man that specifically defined are extremely low. Keep your eyes open for the license plate ARW 357, for instance. You'll probably never see it. Yet, on that particular night before his lecture, that's the very license plate Feynman saw. Amazing! What are the odds?

The point is that improbable odds can't be used to support the argument a thing was not coincidental. We only get exited at how specific an event is when the particular specificity happens to mean something to us. In fact, all events are specific, hence: improbable, but we normally don't notice that or care. The odds of finding a particular specificity that happens to be important to us now and then are actually high because we are pattern-seeking creatures, with prodigious memories, and we enthusiastically make connections.

That doesn't mean everything is a coincidence. It just means we can't cite improbable odds in support of non-coincidence. Proving a thing was not a coincidence, if you wanted to try, would have to be done by some other investigative means or logic.

 

[alt]

The probability of running into someone you know is much higher than running into somebody you haven't seen for 30 years and on the other side of the country, I think it's the latter that's more significant in that situation. This is a pretty trivial point, but the number of people you don't know far outnumbers the number of which you do know, so it would make sense you would pay attention to that minority when you are out. That being said, I don't think you would walk into a store, expecting to see someone from 30 years ago, and from the other side of the country.

Hi all;

I just read this entire thread. Interesting. I would respectfully call most of the incidents mentioned thus far, as coincidence or confirmation bias.

Re the above post;

- Running into someone you hadn't seen for 30 years ? Unremarkable.

- Running into someone you hadn't seen for 30 years, but whom you were clearly thinking about (for the first time in years) 30 seconds ago, or 30 minutes ago ? Very remarkable.

And as Ivan says, what are the odds .. and many deeper questions than that too.

 

[Borg]

https://www.physicsforums.com/showpost.php?p=1152374&postcount=8

Old post, but still a "wow" moment.

A neighbor of mine had a ferret that I can't remember the name of - I'll call him Bob. Anyway, Bob got away and my neighbor put up flyers around the neighborhood. Several days later he got a call from a local tavern saying that they had his ferret. The name of the place was Bob's Tavern.

 

[zoobyshoe]

Thank you for all of that, Zooby. You fleshed those thoughts out far more coherently than I did.

Thanks!

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Calulating the probability of an event ends up being immaterial in determining if it was a coincidence or not.

That is only true if we have no way to determine how often the event [probability] should occur, and to then test for the frequency of that occurence. With a large enough sample, a high confidence in the predictions can be achieved.

If I am traveling across the country and never visit the same place twice, and I keep seeing the same license plate [the same car], I could eventually rule this out as chance with high confidence.

No doubt, the perceived likelihood is often not the same as the statistical likelihood. That is why I chose the word "perceived", and then made the distinction that we need to determine the statistical relationship. However, this does not imply that all "flukey" events are merely perceived to be unlikely. Some truly are unlikely. But, we also expect strange events from time to time because we experience so many events in our lives. And therein lies the problem: In most cases, we have no means of formulating a practical test. However, depending on the case at hand, this can also limit our ability to make definitive statements either way. In some if not most cases, we can't know if events like this occur more often than they should. We can only state what we expect based on known scientific principles.