3.5. Evaluation of reliability against SBO etc. [http://www.nsc.go.jp/info/20110713_dis.pdf 23/96]
(1) Reliability against SBO
There has been no SBO precedent in Japan until now. However, SBO caused core damage PSA results are provided in (3) below.
(2) Reliability against external power, EDG, etc.
PSA of Japanese representative plants based on the loss of offsite power precedents and EDG failure precedents mentioned in "3.4. failure etc. precedents in Japan" provide the following estimates of the reliability of external power, EDG, etc.
a) External power reliability
① Loss of offsite power frequency
There are 3 precedents of BWR loss of offsite power and 1 precedent of PWR loss of offiste power. Among these, one of the BWR cases was generated by a design characteristic of the concerned plant, and later design change measures were taken, so that it can be explained that a similar event cannot occur again in Japan in the future, so we removed it from the survey for calculating the present loss of offsite power frequency. Thus, based on the 2 BWR cases and the one PWR case, loss of offsite power frequencies are determined as follows:
i)BWR: 2 cases generated in 153.8 Reactor*Year, about 1.4 10^-2 /Reactor*Year.
Under the hypothesis of an error factor of 3, the median is about 1.1 10^-2 /Reactor*Year, the 95% upper limit value is about 3.3 10^-2 /Reactor*Year, and the 5% lower limit value is about 3.7 10^-3 /Reactor*Year.
ii)PWR: 1 case generated in 136.7 Reactor*Year, about 7.3 10^-3 /Reactor*Year.
Under the hypothesis of an error factor of 3, the median is about 5.8 10^-3 /Reactor*Year, the 95% upper limit value is about 1.7 10^-2 /Reactor*Year, and the 5% lower limit value is about 1.9 10^-3 /Reactor*Year.
② Loss of offsite power restoration capacity
As shown in "3.4", loss of offsite power restoration capacity according to national records, using the two-line accident data since April 1962, the probability of restoration failure for 30 minute long accidents is about 0.05, and the one for 8 hour long accidents is about 0.001, which is a good restoration capacity in comparison with American values. In other words, in the United States, in NUREG-1032, the relation between loss of offsite power frequency and duration is evaluated by categorizing (categorization by cluster) in function of offsite power system design, power transmission system characteristics, severe weather and extremely severe weather. Just for reference, when these results are compared with the restoration capacity in real evaluations of Japanese plants, even in the plants belonging to the cluster with the most reliable offsite power, for a 30 minute accident duration, the restoration failure probability is about 0.5, and for an 8 hour long accident, the restoration failure probability is about 10^-2, so theses results are about 10 times worse than the results found in realistic evaluations of Japanese plants' restoration capacity. In the PSA of representative Japanese plants, these results are estimated conservatively, and we use data amounting to a restoration failure probability of 10^-2 for an 8 hour accident duration.
b) EDG reliability
① EDG start failure probability
As mentioned in 3.5.(3), the EDG start failure probability used in PSA is calculated from the start records from April 1970 to March 1983, as follows:
* number of starts : 14,878
* number of start failures : 18
* start failure probability : 18/14,878 = 1.2 10-3/demand (henceforth referred to as "d")
Under the hypothesis of an error factor of 3, the median is about 9.6 10^-4/d, the 95% upper limit value is about 2.9 10^-3/d, and the 5% lower limit value is about 3.2 10^-4/d.
As indicated above in 3.4, in the more recent records values are smaller, and according to the operation records from April 1970 to March 1990:
* start failure probability : 30/28,012 = 1.07 10^-3/d
Under the hypothesis of an error factor of 3, the median is about 8.6 10^-4/d, the 95% upper limit value is about 2.6 10^-3/d, and the 5% lower limit value is about 2.9 10^-4/d.
and according to the records from April 1980 to March 1990, it improves to about 5.5 10-4/d.
Under the hypothesis of an error factor of 3, the median is about 4.4 10^-4/d, the 95% upper limit value is about 1.3 10^-3/d, and the 5% lower limit value is about 1.5 10^-4/d.
② EDG failure probability in continuous operation
As no data were prepared in Japan concerning EDG continuous operation failure rates, for PSA values estimated on the basis of the the US data to which we apply the ratio of start failure probabilities in Japan and in the United States as a corrective.
In the future, it is necessary to carry out the preparation of national data on EDG continuous operation failure rates.
c) Reliability of DC sources such as emergency batteries
As mentioned above, there is no failure precedent concerning DC sources such as emergency batteries, and although its reliability is thought to be high, in the PSA evaluation we used US data as follows.
(3) SBO as seen in probabilistic safety assessment
We shall examine SBO as seen in the results of PSA performed in national representative plants.
Here, our considerations are based on PSA performed by the industry. In this PSA, transient occurrence frequencies use operation records in Japanese plants, but equipment failure data, common factor failure data are based on US data. However, as EDG failure rate data have been prepared in Japan, they can be used, so they are used. The results of PSA performed for representative Japanese plants are low, as total core damage frequencies are below the 10^-5/Reactor*Year safety goal set by the IAEA in its basic safety principles for new reactor design.
Concerning representative Japanese BWR-3, BWR-4 and BWR-5 plants, each accident sequence's contribution rate to total core damage frequency is indicated in Figure 3-16 [http://www.nsc.go.jp/info/20110713_dis.pdf 94/96].
In representative BWR-4/BWR-5 plants, evaluations including shared EDGs conclude that the SBO contribution rate is higher than that in BWR-3 plants. As BWR-3 plants possesses 2 IC systems , their design is comparatively stronger against loss of offsite power, and SBO is not dominant. In all plants, themselves, core damage frequencies generated by the SBO sequence are not high. (The SBO (TB sequence) generated core damage frequency and the contribution rate of SBO to total core damage frequency are respectively about 1.6 10^-8/Reactor*Year and 2% in BWR-3 plants, about 1.9 10^-7/Reactor*Year and 24% in BWR-4 plants, and about 7.2 10^-8/Reactor*Year and 22% in BWR-5 plants).
Also, in the Japan Institute of Nuclear Safety assessment results, the core damage frequency generated by the SBO sequence is small like in the industry's assessment. (As a result of a PSA performed for a representative 110,000 kW class Japanese BWR, the SBO (TB sequence) generated core damage frequency and the contribution rate of SBO to total core damage frequency are respectively about 2.4 10^-9/Reactor*Year and 1%).
Concerning representative Japanese PWR plants (dry type 4 loop plant, ice condenser type 4 loop plant), the the breakdown by generating factor of contribution rates to total core damage frequency is indicated in Figure 3-17 [http://www.nsc.go.jp/info/20110713_dis.pdf 95/96].
The contribution of loss of offsite power caused sequences is low in both the dry type and the ice condenser type. The contribution of loss of offsite power caused sequences is even smaller in ice condenser type 4 loop plants because they are equipped with 2 turbine driven auxiliary feedwater pumps (1 pump in dry type 4 loop plants). (The SBO (TB sequence) generated core damage frequency and the contribution rate of SBO to total core damage frequency are respectively about 1.1 10^-9/Reactor*Year and 0.2% in dry type 4 loop plants, and about 2.1 10^-10/Reactor*Year and 0.01% in ice condenser type 4 loop plants).
In the Japan Institute of Nuclear Safety assessment results too, the core damage frequency generated by the SBO sequence is small like in the industry's assessment. (As a result of a PSA performed for a representative 110,000 kW class Japanese PWR, the loss of offsite power generated core damage frequency is about 6.6 10^-9/Reactor*Year and the contribution rate to total core damage frequency is about 4%).
As the PSA performed in Japan and the PSA performed in foreign countries are not using a unified way of thinking as regards the assessment method's details or the prerequisites of data, etc., an indiscriminate comparison is not suitable, but we want to try to use the NUREG-1150 assessment results as reference. Those results are presented in Figure 3-18 [http://www.nsc.go.jp/info/20110713_dis.pdf 96/96]. In the NUREG-1150 assessment, SBO is a protruding accident sequence at the Surry and Grand Gulf reactors.
4. Assessment of guidelines and safety securing countermeasures against SBOs