Vanadium 50 said:
Twofish is, once again, letting his bitterness get the best of him, to the point of his arguments becoming illogical.
Funny thing. I'm a lot less bitter than most other people in the field.
Also, I didn't invent this.. There are two particularly influential papers in this field
http://articles.adsabs.harvard.edu/full/1991PASP..103...90T (The Production of Astronomers: A Model for Future Surpluses)
http://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1086/528878 (The Production Rate and Employment of Ph.D. Astronomers)
The reason there is an "oversupply" of PhD's has nothing to do with universities and "grunt labor". If that were driving it, we'd see the same level of PhD production and funding for philosophers and art historians as physicists
US produces about 150 or so art history Ph.D.'s each year. That's roughly the same number as the number of particle physics Ph.D.'s.
http://cnx.org/content/m13978/latest/?collection=col10377/latest
Also you can use the Thronson model to model things other than astrophysics production. What ends up happening is that if you adjust the level of funding then it saturates at a different level. In the case of art historians and philosophy, you end up with an oversupply at a much lower level of funding. In other fields like CS and finance, you don't get an oversupply because students don't become "breeders."
The reason that external funding for producing physicists is orders of magnitude higher than for producing philosophers is because the citizens of the United States, through their elected representatives, have decided that it is worth the money to produce of stream of physicists who will enter industry and make better computers and cell phones, to improve searching for oil wells and developing alternative energy, strengthen the banking system, and maybe figure out how to keep our strategic deterrent forces working in a world where every twelve years half of our tritium decays away.
And that's a good thing. The trouble is that there is no reason to think that this funding shouldn't be taken for granted. Funding for physics is highly variable, and if people in the United States start thinking that physics Ph.D.'s aren't doing anything useful, then funding is going to get cut. Personally I think that would be a bad thing.
We've already seen this happen in one situation. Personally, I think it's a *very* bad thing that the Higgs Particle was found at CERN rather than in Texas, and that was because Congress was not convinced that it was worth spending several tens of billions of dollars on the SSC.
Also, if the purpose of the physics Ph.d. is to do improve industry (and I think it would be), then there are a lot of things that could be done to improve things. Listening to people that have moved from academia to industry rather than dismissing their opinions would be a start.
One problem with "more funding" is that it changes the equilibrium, but it doesn't prevent saturation. If you increase the amount of funding but don't change the way that Ph.D.'s are trained then you change the equilibrium level, but you still end up with a lot more people looking for work than getting it.
I suspect that a Congressman's reaction to "I wanted to be a professor and couldn't get a job doing that" would be along the lines of "So you didn't get your first choice of jobs. Well boo freaking hoo. Welcome to the real world, kiddo." What is a personal tragedy to you is exactly how the system is supposed to work.
If an auto worker said that or an investment banker, they wouldn't have the same reaction. The difference is that there are maybe 1000 or so disgruntled physicists whereas we are looking at a million or so auto workers or investment bankers. Politicians can count. If you have enough votes, they aren't going to *think* "get a life."
If you watch auto makers talk to congress people, it's "give us jobs or we'll find someone that will." Personally, I think it would be a better world if particle physicists and adjunct faculty had that sort of clout. Part of this is that I've seen first hand how banks formulate the rules to stay in business, and I think it would be good if scientists had that sort of political power.
One other thing is that it feels *good* to talk to a politician. Politicians know what to say to make you feel good, and every Congressperson I've ever met up close has this "feel good" aura. They might be thinking "get a life, you worthless bum", but as long as you are a registered voter they won't say anything like that.
Now, onto the topic at hand. I see a lot more "everyone knows" and "rumor has it" and "I heard it from a friend who heard it from a friend" and even "this is the way I think the world should be" but precious few actual facts. A fact would be nice, I think.
One problem with facts is that the system deliberately is structured to hide facts. You can't *prove* anything.