tom.stoer said:
Many people think that the trivial way to quantize gravity using gravitons as small fluctuations on top of a smooth manifold is the wrong turn - and indeed this naive method has failed for decades.
Many others don't share this view. The paper
D.F. Litim
Fixed Points of Quantum Gravity and the Renormalisation Group
http://arxiv.org/pdf/0810.3675
says on p.2: ''. It remains an interesting and open challenge to prove, or falsify, that a consistent quantum theory of gravity cannot be accommodated for within the otherwise very successful framework of local quantum field theories.'' The paper
J. Gomis and S. Weinberg,
Are Nonrenormalizable Gauge Theories Renormalizable?
http://arxiv.org/pdf/hep-th/9510087.
removed the old complaints about the defects of canonical gravity, and indeed, one can treat covariant quantum gravity just one treats nonrenormalizable effective field theories, and fares well with it.See, for example,
C.P. Burgess,
Quantum Gravity in Everyday Life:
General Relativity as an Effective Field Theory
Living Reviews in Relativity 7 (2004), 5
http://www.livingreviews.org/lrr-2004-5
for 1-loop corrections, and
Donoghue, J.F., and Torma, T.,
Power counting of loop diagrams in general relativity,
Phys. Rev. D, 54, 4963-4972,
http://arxiv.org/abs/hep-th/9602121
for higher-loop behavior.
Section 4.1 of the paper by Burgess discussed recent computational
studies showing that covariant quantum gravity regarded as an effective
field theory predicts quantitative leading quantum corrections to the
Schwarzschild, Kerr-Newman, and Reisner-Nordstroem metrics.
Only a few new parameters arise at each loop order, in particular only
one (the coefficient of curvature^2) at one loop.
In particular, at one loop, Newton's constant of gravitation becomes
a running coupling constant with
G(r) = G - 167/30pi G^2/r^2 + ...
in terms of a renormalization length scale r.
Here is a quote from Section 4.1:
''Numerically, the quantum corrections are so miniscule as to be
unobservable within the solar system for the forseeable future.
Clearly the quantum-gravitational correction is numerically extremely
small when evaluated for garden-variety gravitational fields in the
solar system, and would remain so right down to the event horizon even
if the sun were a black hole. At face value it is only for separations
comparable to the Planck length that quantum gravity effects become
important. To the extent that these estimates carry over to quantum
effects right down to the event horizon on curved black hole
geometries (more about this below) this makes quantum corrections
irrelevant for physics outside of the event horizon, unless the
black hole mass is as small as the Planck mass''
My bet is that the canonical approach will win the race!