Cyrus said:
Dense? You presented me with a chart comparing Space funding, making the case that the US has so much more funding specifically because of manned space flight and that it would all go down the drain to that of the UK if we took space flight away. Within this very data you omit to mention that you included a HUGE portion of AERONAUTICS funding.
I challenge you to try to go through NASA's budget, deciding what expenditures are for human spaceflight versus unmanned versus aeronautics versus an earmark for the NASA swimming pool at Congresscritter Joe Idiot's alma mater versus slush fund for God knows what? Now you want me to do that for each country, with each country treating military versus civilian space a bit differently, each country treating aerospace versus aeronautics differently, each having their own Joseph Dummkopf who are fund their alma mater differently? Please. That is a full time job, and then some.
So I ask again, what portion of that huge chunk of US spending specifically goes to the manned space flight program? You are comparing apples and oranges.
No matter how you cut it, Britain's unmanned space program suffered immensely when Parliament obliged that country's anti-human spaceflight crowd. The US's unmanned space program suffered immensely when Nixon killed the Apollo program.
I would think unmanned space flight (today) has a much larger return on investment, as its much cheaper, and can do much more (thanks to modern technology). This was not the case in the 1960s. But I'd like to hear what you think about this.
Now you are the one comparing apples to oranges. If you want to justify unmanned space flight solely on the basis of scientific ROI you need to compare it to the research it would be competing with for funding now, not the research that was done back in the 1960s.
Modern technology doesn't help unmanned space flight near as much as it helps Earth-based scientific research. Practically everything flown into space is a one-off. The mirrors are custom-made. The sensors are mostly custom-made. Compare this to the scientist whose research is solidly affixed to the Earth and who need some newfangled piece of equipment. The first impulse is to reach for a scientific equipment catalog. Most of what they need is a phone call away.
Avionics are a huge problem, and the problem is getting bigger as die sizes get smaller. The computer on a typical space probe is ten year old technology at best. Suppose you are the PI for a space probe to be flown five years from now, a typical time span for an unmanned space probe. What CPU are you going to use? You need to decide very early in the design cycle. The CPU selection drives the design of the electrical system and constrains the design of the flight software. You have to choose from what's available at the time of the design decision. You choices include a 603MHz PowerPC processor, 733MHz PowerPC processor, a 750MHz PowerPC processor, ... When the vehicle flies in 2014, will your competitors for funding be using a single board 750 MHz PowerPC? The Mars rover's flight computers run at a hefty 25 megahertz. You would have to go to a lot of garage sales to find a 25 megahertz desktop computer.
Flight software is yet another problem. The Shuttle flight software is a famous or infamous example. Everything was planned in advance, checked, and double checked (google the term "independent verification and validation"). The test scaffolding was treated as class A software. It had to be planned in advanced, checked, and double checked. The test scaffolding for the test scaffolding wasn't class A. It still had to be planned and checked. If you counted the lines of code (the test scaffolding and test scaffolding for the test scaffolding don't count) and divided by all the people involved in the project (the people who did the planning, the testing, and the IV&V do count because they cost money) you would come up with about one line of code per person per day. While NASA has streamlined things to some extent even for class A software, and the flight software for an unmanned probe is only class B, the cost for the software for your probe will be immense.
Your competitor? He will tell a cheap grad student to whip up an analysis program using Matlab toolboxes, a statistical analysis program, and a bit of custom Python for glue. It won't take very long. And then he will run the program on a 1 THz computer.
Bottom line: Productivity and ROI are worse, not better, than in the 1960s.