Diracula said:
I was hoping that since physics is so general (and difficult; requiring analytical thinking at a level higher than a lot of other fields) I could do a Ph.D. in physics then, as I approach graduation, I could look and see what fields are currently receiving the most funding, perceived to be the most valuable, or have the best job outlook, then do a postdoc in that if I couldn't go straight into industry.
You are much more likely to find a job in industry than a post-doc in a different field. There's been a persistent glut of people looking for post-docs, and if there are more applicants with specific skills, people won't look further afield. The demand for people in industry goes up or down, but even in the worst economic situation, the demand has been higher than the demand for post-docs in the best economic situation.
This would build breadth in a field that was "useful" to the people who decide what is useful, roughly speaking (i.e. the people with the money).
That's actually not how it works. A lot of getting work involves human networks and knowing the right people and having the right people know you. One thing about job hunting at the Ph.D. level is that it becomes extremely personal. At the bachelor's level, one applicant is basically interchangeable with another applicant, whereas this is not true for Ph.D.'s.
The thought was postdocs are less competitive than tenure track prof jobs or high paying industry jobs so it wouldn't be too difficult if I remained flexible to land a postdoc in a different area that I could build breadth in, and begin to specialize in an 'in demand' field.
Postdocs are much, much harder to get than high paying industry jobs.
CORRECTION: This statement refers to postdocs in a different field than your Ph.D.
I was hoping that since physics is broad enough this would be a reasonable strategy if you were willing to work your way up from scratch or learn a new field after your Ph.D.
It's not the ability to learn, but rather knowing the right people and getting the right information. For example, I probably could do something useful in neuroscience, but I have no clue who to talk to and what to say. Whereas if you are an astrophysicist looking for work on Wall Street, you'll find someone without much difficulty that can tell you how the system works, where to look for jobs, what to say at an interview, how to write a resume, etc. etc.
The only thing I can really conclude from this is a Ph.D. is a terrible choice for career outlook no matter what you do.
Strongly disagree. I think it's great if you are interested in science. One thing that worries me is that the negativity about Ph.D.'s could go too far in the other direction. I really got a great deal from mine, and if you look closely at my postings, then you could argue that I'm annoyed because the goals that I set for myself are high and likely to be unrealistic.
You can't really predict science supply/demand for specific fields 6 years in the future.
Guess what. You can't really predict supply/demand for anything six years in the future.
The market isn't flexible enough for you to change fields if your exact skill set isn't in demand when you graduate or finish a postdoc. And there's no way to know if you are currently developing marketable skills while you are working on a Ph.D.
True. Also there *are* some generally marketable skills that people can work on while working on a Ph.D. Sales and marketing skills. People skills. A lot of dealing with the economy involves convincing people to do things. That's a skill.
Is a Ph.D. really this big of a risk that you have to HOPE you are developing a skill set that will be valuable in some way 6 years down the road?
Yes, but so is everything else, and I don't think that Ph.D.'s are more of a risk than most other things.