How many people in a group would you expect to have the same birthday?

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The discussion revolves around calculating probabilities in poker and birthday scenarios. The user correctly calculated the expected number of flushes from 2000 poker hands but questioned the textbook's lower figure. For the birthday problem, they attempted to compute the probability of unique birthdays among 40 people but used incorrect values in their calculations. A response confirmed the accuracy of the flush calculation while indicating that the birthday probability approach was flawed. The conversation highlights the complexities of probability calculations in different contexts.
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In poker, you are normally dealt a hand of 5 cards. A flush has all cards of the same suit.
From 2000 hands, how many flushes would you expect?
P(flushes from 2000 hands) = 12/51*11/50*10/49*9/48*2000=3.9616 (4) but the textbook says 3.24 (3)

Did I do something wrong?

A group of 40 people are surprised to find that 2 people have the same birthday. What is the probability that each person has their birthday on a different day?


Tried 38/364*37/363*36/362...but I just don't think that it was meant to be that long. Could someone please give me a hint on this question?
 
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Procrastinate said:
In poker, you are normally dealt a hand of 5 cards. A flush has all cards of the same suit.
From 2000 hands, how many flushes would you expect?
P(flushes from 2000 hands) = 12/51*11/50*10/49*9/48*2000=3.9616 (4) but the textbook says 3.24 (3)

Did I do something wrong?

A group of 40 people are surprised to find that 2 people have the same birthday. What is the probability that each person has their birthday on a different day?


Tried 38/364*37/363*36/362...but I just don't think that it was meant to be that long. Could someone please give me a hint on this question?

Your answer for the first one looks correct to me. The second one doesn't look right at all. You do have to multiply a lot of numbers to get the answer for 40 people. But those aren't the right numbers.
 
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