Impact of recession and oil price increase

AI Thread Summary
The discussion centers on the effects of a recession and rising oil prices on the supply curve, particularly in the context of the automotive market. A recession typically leads to decreased demand, which may not immediately shift the aggregate supply curve in the short run, as production costs remain stable. However, in the long run, a significant recession could reduce productive capacity, potentially shifting the aggregate supply curve to the left. The impact of oil prices rising to $200 per barrel would likely increase production costs for cars, leading to a decrease in supply. This scenario could exacerbate the effects of a recession, as higher oil prices would further diminish consumer demand for cars due to increased operational costs. Additionally, the discussion touches on how supply chains might adapt, with some entities potentially operating outside traditional market dynamics, creating a divide between those who can afford oil and those who cannot. This could lead to a more stratified economic environment, where resource distribution becomes increasingly hierarchical.
mel*k
Hi
I was just wondering if anyone could please help me, I was just wondering what would happen to the supply curve if;
1. There was a recession.
2. And if oil prices increases.

what would cause the supply curve to shift?
thanks heaps for your help

Mel
 
Physics news on Phys.org
mel*k said:
Hi
I was just wondering if anyone could please help me, I was just wondering what would happen to the supply curve if;
1. There was a recession.
2. And if oil prices increases.

what would cause the supply curve to shift?
thanks heaps for your help

Mel

What changes the supply curve are changes to the cost of production. This includes opportunity cost. In a recession demand is less so the only way the price would go up is if the supply curve changed. One way I could see it changing is a massive destruction of the oil producing infrastructure.
 
mel*k said:
what would happen to the supply curve if;
1. There was a recession.

Depends - long/medium/short run.

In the short run, I don't think the AS curve will move because of the previous poster's logic. Only the demand curve shifts.

In the long run it should actually change a little if it's a massive recession. It's because productive capacity will be stymied. In the long run the AS curve is vertical, and shifts to the right by 2-3% every year. (The AD curve intersects this curve). This amount will be reduced by the recession.
 
mel*k said:
Hi
I was just wondering if anyone could please help me, I was just wondering what would happen to the supply curve if;
1. There was a recession.
2. And if oil prices increases.

what would cause the supply curve to shift?
thanks heaps for your help

Mel
"Supply curve" of what? Food? Cable TV? iPhones? Aggregate supply (as one poster interpreted it to be)?
 
Hi All
thank you all for your help i really appreciate you input, sorry if i didnt explain myself properly the question was worded.

Explain what the impact on quantity demanded and supplied for cars will be if oil prices rise to $200 per barrel. What about if extreme global recessionary conditions also prevail?

thanks
 
mel*k said:
Hi All
thank you all for your help i really appreciate you input, sorry if i didnt explain myself properly the question was worded.

Explain what the impact on quantity demanded and supplied for cars will be if oil prices rise to $200 per barrel. What about if extreme global recessionary conditions also prevail?

thanks

Probably, the supply-chains would go relatively private meaning that people with control over oil harvesting and refinement would continue to produce oil and distribute it according to hierarchies of preference. The result would be relatively market-independent economic regimes that did not have to buy oil on the global free market. They would be effectively "above" the recession and would organize economic activities, such as agriculture and food distribution, to benefit the "subjects" of their regimes. If you wanted to be very uncreative, you could call them "welfare states," or maybe "welfare corporations" would be a better term. The problem would be that each would be a ticking time-bomb in that as long as one depleted non-renewable resources like oil, it would have to seek ways to expand its eventual access to oil-rights. This is why the most successful regimes will ultimately be the most sustainable, I think. While some people are fighting over oil and auto-production, others will be zipping around on bicycles and running their computers on solar power. If those people are able to ward off the desperate grasping of the failing welfare-corporations, they will probably suffer less due to oil-inflation and recession - provided they don't get caught in the crossfire of everyone else struggling for scarce resources.
 
Similar to the 2024 thread, here I start the 2025 thread. As always it is getting increasingly difficult to predict, so I will make a list based on other article predictions. You can also leave your prediction here. Here are the predictions of 2024 that did not make it: Peter Shor, David Deutsch and all the rest of the quantum computing community (various sources) Pablo Jarrillo Herrero, Allan McDonald and Rafi Bistritzer for magic angle in twisted graphene (various sources) Christoph...
Thread 'My experience as a hostage'
I believe it was the summer of 2001 that I made a trip to Peru for my work. I was a private contractor doing automation engineering and programming for various companies, including Frito Lay. Frito had purchased a snack food plant near Lima, Peru, and sent me down to oversee the upgrades to the systems and the startup. Peru was still suffering the ills of a recent civil war and I knew it was dicey, but the money was too good to pass up. It was a long trip to Lima; about 14 hours of airtime...
Back
Top