News Iraqi unrest, Syrian unrest, and ISIS/ISIL/Daesh

[edward]

Shiites gathering for war against ISIS.

 

[Ryan_m_b]

The BBC is reporting that the Iraqi government has formally requested the US to launch airstrikes:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-27905849

I'm very concerned about what is going on right now in Iraq and Syria, it's not as simple as an invading external army. Yes ISIS is a radical group which advocates a harsh interpretation of Sharia law but there are reports that Sunni civilians within Iraq are welcoming and even joining ISIS. Probably due to widespread feelings of discrimination and oppression by the predominantly Shi'ite government. In many ways what is happening now in Iraq has characteristics of a civil war with ISIS leading/aggravating/capitalising on strong sectarian tension.

I realize the US has a vested interest in supporting the Iraqi government given the last ten years but I'm honestly not convinced that any intervention which chooses one side over the other won't just make matters worse down the line.

 

[jim hardy]

The BBC is reporting that the Iraqi government has formally requested the US to launch airstrikes:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-27905849
...
I realize the US has a vested interest in supporting the Iraqi government given the last ten years but I'm honestly not convinced that any intervention which chooses one side over the other won't just make matters worse down the line.

I've never been there, I don't know beyond what's reported and don't trust that very much.

I did read Brzezinski's "Grand Chessboard" wherein he suggested that Iraq was a Normandy-like beach head from which the West should spread benign self government in that region, almost like missionaries spreading religion. Given Pres Bush's evangelism i can understand why the idea appealed to him.

Didn't catch on with the natives, i guess.

Seemed like for a while there was a semblance of a government in Iraq - i remember newscasts of some elections and street celebrations.
But i also read that all the oil contracts went to non-US companies.
At what point do you do a Gary Cooper*, ie throw down your badge and say "Your choice" ?

Maybe democracy just isn't for everybody.

*an allusion to an old mans' movie , 'High Noon' which is sometimes said to be an allegory for Cold War era ideology.

 

[Ryan_m_b]

With all due respect Jim that's a very poor opinion. The idea that it's unenlightened locals rejecting democracy would be laughable if it wasn't so sad. The issue is not pro-democracy versus non, the issue is a deeply divided society with a lot of history that has encouraged that division (way back to Iraq being created whole cloth by European empires paying no attention to cultural divides in that region). And that's all before we consider how western influence has supported dictatorships and outright subverted democratic regimes in the region.

I'm not saying this as some sort of cultural guilt trip but not understanding the current and historical realities is not going to result in a good understanding of the current conflict.

 

[jim hardy]

Thanks Ryan for your honest appraisal.

I'm not saying this as some sort of cultural guilt trip but not understanding the current and historical realities is not going to result in a good understanding of the current conflict.

The question though for me is, what should a supposedly enlightened West do about it ?

old jim

 

[Dotini]

The question though for me is, what should a supposedly enlightened West do about it ?

old jim

First do no harm! We need to come to a modus vivendi with billions of people who are still in patriarchal social structure while we have rapidly stepped into a paradigm where our identity is difficult to define. For my own part, I'm watching Game of Thrones.

 

[nsaspook]

The question though for me is, what should a supposedly enlightened West do about it ?

Don't clumsily dump homegrown dictators/thugs/kings, etc... who force the factions to live together, if not in peace then at least not in open warfare. If there is open warfare within the country contain it to the borders and let them and only them sort it out whenever possible. The odds of this happening where oil or something else valuable exists in the country is near zero.

 

[lisab]

<snip> we have rapidly stepped into a paradigm where our identity is difficult to define <snip>

...sort of like a fish who is not aware of the water he swims in, because he's never seen the surface?

I agree, it can be difficult to define ourselves. But I'm sure Iraqis have a well-defined, albeit inaccurate, impression of American/Western identity.

 

[Ryan_m_b]

Thanks Ryan for your honest appraisal.

The question though for me is, what should a supposedly enlightened West do about it ?

old jim

One question to ask would be should we do anything. Direct intervention may not be a viable solution, as I said previously supporting the government and attacking ISIS could have very negative consequences by further alienating and potentially radicalising Sunni minorities that feel oppressed by the current government.

Personally I think that putting as much political pressure on prime minister al-Maliki to step down and allow the proper formation of a unity government is the best way to curb the sectarian violence. That could ultimately draw support away from ISIS. Unfortunately though it might be a case of too little too late.

Incidentally there's been speculation that the US may embark on air strikes against ISIS with the condition that the government takes steps to become less Shi'ite dominated and more inclusive of Sunnis and Kurds.

 

[jim hardy]

One question to ask would be should we do anything. Direct intervention may not be a viable solution, as I said previously supporting the government ...

yes, it'd seem like "doing the same thing expecting different results"

Incidentally there's been speculation that the US may embark on air strikes against ISIS with the condition that the government takes steps to become less Shi'ite dominated and more inclusive of Sunnis and Kurds.

It's Dante's Fifth Circle . I'd stay out of it.

 

[mheslep]

Isn't war always, without exception, a thing out of Dante? The problem is that war is not always avoidable by adopting a stay out of it plan, as 9/11 and 7/7 most recently demonstrate.

 

[crownedbishop]

You're not saying ISIS wants to go after anything outside of Iraq, are you?

 

[edward]

You're not saying ISIS wants to go after anything outside of Iraq, are you?

What bothers me is all the attention this aspect is getting. If ISIS wants to do anything outside of Iraq, there is no guarantee our next venture into Iraq would prevent it.

 

[Dotini]

What bothers me is all the attention this aspect is getting. If ISIS wants to do anything outside of Iraq, there is no guarantee our next venture into Iraq would prevent it.

ISIS already is doing something outside of Iraq. It is attacking Assad, erasing the border to Syria, and occupying a giant swath of territory between Aleppo and Baghdad. Do we want to prevent ISIS from attacking Assad??

 

[edward]

ISIS already is doing something outside of Iraq. It is attacking Assad, erasing the border to Syria, and occupying a giant swath of territory between Aleppo and Baghdad. Do we want to prevent ISIS from attacking Assad??

Actually I was referring to news reports like this:

Republicans are sounding the warning that the next 9/11-like terror plot could emerge from the regions of Iraq and Syria that are currently dominated by an extremist group bearing down on Baghdad.

As the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) - which has already captured the cities of Tikrit and Mosul and is threatening to take the capital city as well - grows in strength and numbers, will it pose an immediate threat to the United States homeland as well?

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/will-isis-plan-a-911-style-terror-plot-against-the-u-s/

And what I meant was, would a U.S. military presence in Iraq prevent this type of attack?

 

[Czcibor]

Assuming that Obama has a plan, it involves making the situation unbearable for Iran and instead of fighting Islamic radical, watch Shia radicals fighting Sunni radicals. Callous, but may be reasonable.

Or maybe he is now haggling with Iran about US air strikes.

Of course he does not have to have a plan.

Anyway the W. should have left that region untouched. The most enlighten political system that Iraqi can maintain is cruel dictator, who at least is secular and maintains peace in country.

 

[Dotini]

The most enlighten political system that Iraqi can maintain is cruel dictator, who at least is secular and maintains peace in country.

That is a bold statement! Could it be true?

Not long ago, the middle east was dominated by cruel secular dictators who kept the lid down tight. In places including Iraq minority rights were protected, alcohol was served and women could wear make-up and western clothes.

Now many cruel secular dictators have been swept away in a series of pro-democracy revolutions collectively dubbed the "Arab spring". That this trend was supported and encouraged by the US and pro-democracy NGO's is not in much doubt, is it?

Are we now to accept that ideologically driven policies were wrong and a return to pragmatism or utilitarianism is warranted, and more enlightened?

 

[jim hardy]

Now many cruel secular dictators have been swept away in a series of pro-democracy revolutions collectively dubbed the "Arab spring". That this trend was supported and encouraged by the US and pro-democracy NGO's is not in much doubt, is it?

Sure wish i knew whether that was well intentioned evangelistic democracy-preaching missionary work gone awry, or a return to pre-opec policy of keeping the region unstable.

Maybe I've been reading too much Taylor Caldwell.

 

[OmCheeto]

Now many cruel secular dictators have been swept away in a series of pro-democracy revolutions collectively dubbed the "Arab spring". That this trend was supported and encouraged by the US and pro-democracy NGO's is not in much doubt, is it?

Sure wish i knew whether that was well intentioned evangelistic democracy-preaching missionary work gone awry, or a return to pre-opec policy of keeping the region unstable.

Maybe I've been reading too much Taylor Caldwell.

Wow. Sounds like a multilayered stream of consciousness anger fest...

Slow down kids.

Breath.

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nie jesteśmy bogiem

 

[Astronuc]

(AP) Iraq at risk again: How did we get here so fast?
http://news.yahoo.com/iraq-risk-again-did-fast-071219768.html

WHEN DID THE TROUBLE START?

The answer depends: How far back do you want to go?


There appears to be concern that if ISIS overruns Iraq (and Syria), what then?

Once they consolidate the region, where will their aspirations lead?

 

[nsaspook]

http://www.newsweek.com/how-syrias-assad-helped-forge-isis-255631

Alghorani is convinced that members of ISIS were released strategically by Assad. “From the first days of the revolution (in March 2011), Assad denounced the organisation as being the work of radical Salafists, so he released the Salafists he had created in his prisons to justify the claim ... If you do not have an enemy, you create an enemy.”
...
“Al Qaeda are extremists. They’re terrorists, they’re everything you want to say about them, but they’re operating to a central creed.” Al-Saud said. “ISIS are simply a bunch of ignorant young men who have been brainwashed into thinking what they’re doing is right.”

ISIS looks to be a mile wide and a inch thick. Assad had no problem handling them and Iraq shouldn't either if anyone there actually had a backbone.

 

[Czcibor]

That is a bold statement! Could it be true?

Not long ago, the middle east was dominated by cruel secular dictators who kept the lid down tight. In places including Iraq minority rights were protected, alcohol was served and women could wear make-up and western clothes.

Now many cruel secular dictators have been swept away in a series of pro-democracy revolutions collectively dubbed the "Arab spring". That this trend was supported and encouraged by the US and pro-democracy NGO's is not in much doubt, is it?

Are we now to accept that ideologically driven policies were wrong and a return to pragmatism or utilitarianism is warranted, and more enlightened?

No, this statement can't be true. It implies that some ethnic groups did not mature to democracy, thus is racist. And racist statements can't be true. Q.E.D. ;)

I think that the USA was slowly encouraging democracy through NGOs, however later become somewhat reluctant. I'd rather say that it undermined govs on its own, however it was more a mixture of different causes that exploded together. Anyway, (except Iraq) there was no good choice - when before '79 the USA was supporting some local ruler in Iran it backfired in possibly the most disastrous way.

Anyway, the USA had good experience with already developed Germany and Japan which had their period of curable madness, and expected that the same can be done in the Middle East. (to be honest I also used to believe that) Instead someone has to build countries in tribal societies from scratch.

 

[mheslep]

It appears you are confusing some ISIS leadership mentioned in that article with the group at large. Since ISIS is reported to control dozen Syrian cities, I don't think it is fair to say Assad "handled" them.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jun/18/isis-iraq-syria-two-wars-one-nightmare

 

[nsaspook]

It appears you are confusing some ISIS leadership mentioned in that article with the group at large. Since ISIS is reported to control dozen Syrian cities, I don't think it is fair to say Assad "handled" them.

The Syrian leadership with Russian advisers IMO are running a smart game with ISIS by playing enemy against enemy by letting them run the operation on border desert with Iraq so they will stay out of his hair within his power base cities while he handles our rag-tag Syrian National Coalition forces.

From your link.

The Syrian National Coalition, the main western-backed opposition group, quickly dismissed the raids as "a ridiculous decoy". Assad, it claimed, "aims through this fake air strike against limited Isis administrative centres to send a message to the international community and to rebuild trust with it, after its close relationship with Isis was exposed".

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...-boosting-al-Qaeda-with-secret-oil-deals.html

The Syrian regime of President Bashar al-Assad has funded and co-operated with al-Qaeda in a complex double game even as the terrorists fight Damascus, according to new allegations by Western intelligence agencies, rebels and al-Qaeda defectors.

Jabhat al-Nusra, and the even more extreme Islamic State of Iraq and al-Shams (ISIS), the two al-Qaeda affiliates operating in Syria, have both been financed by selling oil and gas from wells under their control to and through the regime, intelligence sources have told The Daily Telegraph.

 

[nsaspook]

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-28042309

The funds would help Syrians defend against forces aligned with President Bashar al-Assad, the White House said.

The aid would also counter Islamists militants such as the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (Isis), it added.

Isis's advance in neighbouring Iraq has led some in Congress to press Mr Obama to take action.

http://www.navytimes.com/article/20140310/NEWS/303100015/Report-U-S-troops-training-Iraqis-Jordan

 

[edward]

What actions would some in congress want Obama to take?

At a closed-door briefing Tuesday night, senators were told it would be two or three weeks before the Pentagon had completed its first assessment.

"The president needs to make a recommendation on a plan to make sure that our people are safe and to ensure that [ISIS] isn't in a position where it has established an Islamic caliphate that it can threaten our country," said Sen. Kelly Ayotte, R-N.H. "The reality is, I'm not sure we have two weeks for him to make a decision on the Iraqi security situation."

Demanding that the president move more quickly appears to be the only action Congress is going to take. When asked if lawmakers would go off on holiday and leave the Iraq situation to the president, McCain shrugged his shoulders.

"Apparently," he said.

Obama has no magic wand to wave. This is all politics as usual.


http://www.nationaljournal.com/congress/republicans-warn-obama-doesn-t-have-two-weeks-to-mull-iraq-20140625

 

[Chronos]

I'm rather annoyed republicans are content to pay out rope to Obama on this issue. Politics at its worst.

 

[TheAustrian]

Maybe the best solution would be to split Iraq in three. One piece for Kurds, one piece for Sunnis, and one piece for the Shi'ite people. Of course I think it should happen at an international negotiation table with the involvement of: Kurds, Sunni Iraqis, Shi'ite Iraqis, Iran, Syria, USA, Russia and China.

 

[OmCheeto]

Maybe the best solution would be to split Iraq in three. One piece for Kurds, one piece for Sunnis, and one piece for the Shi'ite people. Of course I think it should happen at an international negotiation table with the involvement of: Kurds, Sunni Iraqis, Shi'ite Iraqis, Iran, Syria, USA, Russia and China.

Although I agree with you, about splitting the country, I believe it is not acceptable to the rest of the nations of the world, as it would set a logical precedent. North America would probably choose to rearrange as the United States of Canada, Jesusland, and the Republic of Texas. The populace of the Gaza Strip would probably want to expand into Egypt, as that area strikes me as being "full". I really don't know what the deal is with Israel. Tel Aviv was founded on a pretty much unpopulated sandy shoreline, and now everyone wants the current occupants out. The rest of Israel strikes me as little better, geographically.

Wait. What are we talking about? Iraq. hmmmm...

I started to post something on this thread the other day, but someone interrupted me. It appears I didn't jot down my notes that day, so I'll try and regurgitate it from memory:

This reminds me a bit of the Northern Ireland conflict: Same god, different jersey colors.

I often see different religious sects to being comparable to sports teams. Everything is fine and dandy, until one side sees the other side winning, and then everyone wishes the toilets had been bolted down better.

Humans are funny, in a sad kind of way.

But looking over the wiki article on "The Troubles", it would appear that I had no clue what was going on there either.

The Troubles began in the late 1960s and is considered by many to have ended with the Belfast Good Friday Agreement of 1998. However, sporadic violence has continued since then.

The conflict was primarily a political one, but it also had an ethnic or sectarian dimension, although it was not a religious conflict. The key issues at stake were the constitutional status of Northern Ireland and the relationship between its two main communities. Unionists and loyalists, who are mostly Ulster Protestants, generally want Northern Ireland to remain within the United Kingdom. Irish nationalists and republicans, who are mostly Catholics, generally want it to leave the United Kingdom and join a united Ireland.

hmmm... Sounds familiar.


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as usual, I will not be offended if you delete my flippant comments

 

[OmCheeto]

I don't know whether to laugh, or cry.

ISIL declares new 'Islamic caliphate'
Rebels fighting in Iraq under ISIL banner announce creation of Islamic state, extending from Diyala to Syria's Aleppo.

Diyala is an Iraqi province which shares borders with Baghdad and Iran.
Aleppo is the largest city in Syria.
I mention this, as I'm somewhat bad with names.

hmmm... What else do people think?

Put simply, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi has declared war on al-Qaida. While it is now inevitable that members and prominent supporters of al-Qaida and its affiliates will rapidly move to denounce Baghdadi and this announcement, it is the long-term implications that may prove more significant

(ref)

Good. Let them kill each other.

Who was it that said; "... let God sort them out."?*

As former military, and current softhearted guy, who takes in malnourished stray cats and downtrodden pigeons, I find it somewhat cowardly, that people involve civilians in their conflicts.

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*Arnaud Amalric. In France no less. Another sectarian war. How appropriate.
ok2d