News Is North Korea's Defiance of U.N. Sanctions Pushing Us Closer to War?

[Topher925]

It looks like the situation with North Korea is only going to get worse. Do you think we might be able to just wait for this country to collapse in on itself?

North Korea responded to new U.N. sanctions with more defiance, promising Saturday to step up its nuclear bomb-making program by enriching uranium and threatening war on any country that dares to stop its ships on the high seas.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090613/ap_on_re_as/as_koreas_nuclear

 

[kyleb]

While I have no love for the North Korean regime, I don't see why we have to harass them over nuclear testing. Seems to me we are just egging them on when we'd be better off to ignore them.

 

[BAnders1]

Now that they are holding two Americans prisoner, we can't just ignore North Korea completely.

 

[skippy1729]

It looks like the situation with North Korea is only going to get worse. Do you think we might be able to just wait for this country to collapse in on itself?
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090613/ap_on_re_as/as_koreas_nuclear

I believe the average North Korean is 4 or 5 inches shorter that the average South Korean due to malnutrition. It took 50 years for the "people's republic" to achieve that. In another 200 years they will all be about two feet tall. No, I think "collapsing in on itself" will take too long.

20 or 30 years ago there was a presidential Executive Order prohibiting assassination of foreign heads of state. My opinion of Obama will go way up if he rescinds this order. He wouldn't actually have to commit to going through with the act, or even mention North Korea. The very act of rescinding it might bring the North Koreans back to the bargaining table.

cheers, skippy

PS It might give the ayatollahs something to think about...ah, martyrdom.

 

[BAnders1]

20 or 30 years ago there was a presidential Executive Order prohibiting assassination of foreign heads of state.

That didn't stop us from trying to assassinate Fidel Castro (not sure when our last attempt was, so I may be wrong). Even so, maybe lifting the order will be like placing a revolver on the negotiating table.

 

[kyleb]

Now that they are holding two Americans prisoner, we can't just ignore North Korea completely.

I didn't mean to suggest ignoring them completely, rather just their nuclear testing. Again, at the moment I feel we are simply antagonising them further rather than accomplishing anything productive.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

... Seems to me we are just egging them on when we'd be better off to ignore them.

I think we already tried that plan with Hitler.

 

[kyleb]

Care to elaborate? I don't see anything I've said here could be construed along the lines your analogy suggests. Also, please note my clarification I posted just before your reply.

 

[Borek]

That didn't stop us from trying to assassinate Fidel Castro (not sure when our last attempt was, so I may be wrong).

Must have been when the CIA put grease on the stairs - you remember when he slipped and fell?

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Care to elaborate? I don't see anything I've said here could be construed along the lines your analogy suggests. Also, please note my clarification I posted just before your reply.

He's a nut who cannot be ignored. Given his current posture without nuclear weapons, what do you think his position will be when he has them?

 

[kyleb]

He does have nuclear weapons, and regardless of how far he develops them he will still be the ineffectual little dictator who is bound to croak any year now, just the same as he is today.

What benefit has hounding him about nuclear testing got us?

 

[cristo]

He does have nuclear weapons, and regardless of how far he develops them he will still be the ineffectual little dictator who is bound to croak any year now, just the same as he is today.

Well, surely if he uses his nuclear weapons he will not longer be an "ineffectual little dictator", no?

 

[Phrak]

He's a nut who cannot be ignored. Given his current posture without nuclear weapons, what do you think his position will be when he has them?

What are you saying!?
Are you aware that Kim Jung-il is a Physics Forum member?

 

[kyleb]

Well, surely if he uses his nuclear weapons he will not longer be an "ineffectual little dictator", no?

Of course not, he'd be toppled immediately, and dead shortly after, which is something for him to worry about himself rather than the rest of us and isn't likely to happen anyway.

 

[mheslep]

Well, surely if he uses his nuclear weapons he will not longer be an "ineffectual little dictator", no?

Of course not, he'd be toppled immediately, and dead shortly after, which is something for him to worry about himself rather than the rest of us and isn't likely to happen anyway.

At which point some tens or hundred of thousands would be dead in S. Korea, or Japan, whatever meets Dear Leaders fancy. And if he'd been allowed to get to that point, he'd probably also already have sold weapons to some other Dear Leader wannabe, and started nuclear weapons programs in other SE Asian countries Is that the threshold you suggest before any more 'antagonizing' action can be taken?

 

[math_04]

For once, America should use its military power for a good cause to scare off North Korea. All the UN seems to have done is scold North Korea in a very puny manner and urge it to come back to negotiations which is obviously has no intention of doing. What should be done is warn North Korea that if you explode another bomb, we will search every ship and block all ships from entering North Korea. If you continue down the same path or launch a war, we will respond with force and use all means necessary to ensure that you will never be a threat to world peace again. The message should be reiterated publicly by Obama and sent to North Korea.

That should stop them for many a reason. Firstly, China will start seriously pressurizing North Korea to listen to America and return to the negotiating table. The last thing China wants is an American ally at its doorstep and it damn well would not go to war over Korea again. Secondly, it would finally penetrate those thick skulls of the North Korean military leadership that America really means business, no more mucking around and sucking up to them. North Korea seems to think it can dictate terms which it has been allowed to do for too long.

 

[evilpostingmong]

For once, America should use its military power for a good cause to scare off North Korea. All the UN seems to have done is scold North Korea in a very puny manner and urge it to come back to negotiations which is obviously has no intention of doing. What should be done is warn North Korea that if you explode another bomb, we will search every ship and block all ships from entering North Korea. If you continue down the same path or launch a war, we will respond with force and use all means necessary to ensure that you will never be a threat to world peace again. The message should be reiterated publicly by Obama and sent to North Korea.

That should stop them for many a reason. Firstly, China will start seriously pressurizing North Korea to listen to America and return to the negotiating table. The last thing China wants is an American ally at its doorstep and it damn well would not go to war over Korea again. Secondly, it would finally penetrate those thick skulls of the North Korean military leadership that America really means business, no more mucking around and sucking up to them. North Korea seems to think it can dictate terms which it has been allowed to do for too long.

Exactly, show them who's boss! You can't reason with this dictator
with glasses of tea, files, and a table between one another, he's a maniac!

 

[TheStatutoryApe]

Of course not, he'd be toppled immediately, and dead shortly after, which is something for him to worry about himself rather than the rest of us and isn't likely to happen anyway.

Considering the danger to the world that nuclear arms represents would you not think that attempts to slow and stop proliferation and development are preferable to none? Perhaps the tack that is currently being taken is ineffective and different avenues ought to be explored. But do you really think that we ought to stop trying all together? Perhaps better to try and still lose than to lose for having not tried enough?

 

[kyleb]

Considering the danger to the world that nuclear arms represents would you not think that attempts to slow and stop proliferation and development are preferable to none?

Sure, but again, I don't see hounding North Korea over its nuclear testing being productive to those ends.

 

[TheStatutoryApe]

Sure, but again, I don't see hounding North Korea over its nuclear testing being productive to those ends.

Ignoring them, as you seem to suggest, is?

 

[math_04]

While having a pacifistic view to other crisis like Iran may serve a purpose, certainly it comes to nothing with regards to North Korea. North Korea is run by a dangerous unstable dictator who is ably supported by a military who gleefully wants to wage war against South Korea at the first opportunity. Once it acquires a few nuclear bombs, who knows how the regime will behave? I would not put it past them to nuke South Korea or even Japan over a petty excuse that one of its ships was searched or there was a minor confrontation on the border.

You cannot expect North Korea to act rationally in a crisis and with a nuclear armed Korea, it becomes even more dangerous. It is clear that even China cannot control North Korea enough. We are talking about a country that sent a missile over Japan at one point. America, Japan and South Korea should start threatening North Korea with serious consequences if they continue down the same path. Now is a good time to threaten them because firstly, North Korea probably do not have a nuclear bomb yet and secondly, the delivery system for the nuke is crude and would probably blow up before launch. Mind you, no one is advocating war but merely threatening them with serious consequences. That way, we can still have a reluctant China on our side and hopefully scare off North Korea and humiliate it.

 

[kyleb]

Ignoring them, as you seem to suggest, is?

Rather, at least it wouldn't be egging them on.

 

[skippy1729]

When we had the good old Cold War, everyone had enough firepower to incinerate the planet. We also had MAD "mutually assured destruction" we knew it and the soviets knew it and it made the world a safer place to live.

Now we have Iran and North Korea being run by irrational people. MAD means nothing to them. Ahmadinejad views the total destruction of Israel as paving the way for the return of the 12th iman.
His predecessor Rafsanjani said that killing 5 million Jews might result in losses of 15 million Iranians but this would be a small sacrifice to pay for Muslims around the world. We know what is in their heads; we don't even know what makes Kim Jong-il tick. These people are much more dangerous than the USSR ever was.

Skippy

 

[kyleb]

Now we have Iran and North Korea being run by irrational people. MAD means nothing to them.

Eccentric people anyway, but I have no reason to suspect they don't respect the concept of MAD, and rather figure that understanding is exactly what motivates North Korea's current nuclear weapons program, and the one Iran was running previously.

Ahmadinejad views the total destruction of Israel as paving the way for the return of the 12th iman.
His predecessor Rafsanjani said that killing 5 million Jews might result in losses of 15 million Iranians but this would be a small sacrifice to pay for Muslims around the world.

Can you substantiate these claims?

 

[rootX]

While I have no love for the North Korean regime, I don't see why we have to harass them over nuclear testing. Seems to me we are just egging them on when we'd be better off to ignore them.

You are suggesting that let them do whatever they want and we should better ignore them.

So, when we should start taking them seriously?

 

[kyleb]

Whenever they want to have a serious talk about reconciliation with the South, which I think could have happened already by now if we had been less antagonistic.

 

[skippy1729]

Can you substantiate these claims?

Rafsanjani statement: Alan M. Dershowitz, Preemption: A Knife That Cuts Both Ways" (2006) page 175.

Ahmadinejad statement: Alan M. Dershowitz, "The Case Against Israel's Enemies" (2008) page 14.

We all eagerly await your pronouncement that Dershowitz is an unreliable pawn of the Israel Lobby, blah, blah. Save your fingers, I'll do it for you.

Cheers, Skippy

 

[math_04]

Iran, although run by a president that regularly spews out hateful rhetoric, is mostly a rational actor. There are bigger forces at work in Iran than the president, an informal politburo along with the Supreme Leader runs the country and for the most part, although they are hardliners, they are rational thinkers as well. So far, they have not launched missiles at other countries like North Korea or have had massive military buildups aimed at the total destruction of a state. In fact, recent UN reports and even American intelligence suggests that Iran has abandoned nuclear bomb production for the time being unlike North Korea which kicked inspectors out and have openly said that they will build nuclear bombs.

North Korea is different. What kyleb suggests is that we ignore North Korea and therefore let them go on with their nuclear bomb production and let them build an arsenal of nuclear bombs aimed at different cities across Japan and South Korea. What would you say to all those Koreans and Japanese who would be frightened of even living in close proximity to an irrational nation, who at the first sign of trouble, would have no qualms about launching a nuclear missile at its neighbours. The pride of North Korea's deluded leadership is not its inefficient, underequipped military but rather its ability to fire a bomb and thus create fear across the whole region.

Kim Jong Il and his military subordinates are probably laughing at America and her allies for doing practically nothing apart from a simple 'im disappointed in you' statement. This might give them the hopefully false impression that everyone is scared of North Korea's power and escalate the situation by launching cross border raids or launching more missiles over South Korea and Japan. While North Korea's population lives in extreme poverty, these megalomaniacs will within a year probably be able to have a decent delivery system and then things will definitely change. With a nuclear armed North Korea, even a small cross border incident could lead to a nuclear strike on Seoul without any warning, such is the threat posed by an irrational leadership.

 

[kyleb]

Rafsanjani statement: Alan M. Dershowitz, Preemption: A Knife That Cuts Both Ways" (2006) page 175.

Ahmadinejad statement: Alan M. Dershowitz, "The Case Against Israel's Enemies" (2008) page 14.

We all eagerly await your pronouncement that Dershowitz is an unreliable pawn of the Israel Lobby, blah, blah. Save your fingers, I'll do it for you.

Cheers, Skippy

Pawn? Hardly, more like a knight. Regardless, would you please quote the statements and present whatever sources were cited?

 

[kyleb]

What would you say to all those Koreans and Japanese who would be frightened of even living in close proximity to an irrational nation, who at the first sign of trouble, would have no qualms about launching a nuclear missile at its neighbours.

I don't see any reason to support such a claim.

 

[rootX]

Whenever they want to have a serious talk about reconciliation with the South, which I think could have happened already by now if we had been less antagonistic.

What about the arm race in that region? NK wouldn't be the only one to expand its military powers.

 

[drankin]

Of course not, he'd be toppled immediately, and dead shortly after, which is something for him to worry about himself rather than the rest of us and isn't likely to happen anyway.

Wow, that's a pretty naive statement. He's only detonating nukes and shooting rockets over other countries. Nothing to worry about you say? The term "detached from reality" comes to mind.

 

[Cyrus]

Exactly, show them who's boss! You can't reason with this dictator
with glasses of tea, files, and a table between one another, he's a maniac!

Yeah! Becuase that's exactly what's being done! Woo hoo! (Sarcasm)

 

[CRGreathouse]

Eccentric people anyway, but I have no reason to suspect they don't respect the concept of MAD, and rather figure that understanding is exactly what motivates North Korea's current nuclear weapons program, and the one Iran was running previously.

I agree.

 

[cristo]

Of course not, he'd be toppled immediately, and dead shortly after, which is something for him to worry about himself rather than the rest of us and isn't likely to happen anyway.

Who's going to "topple him" though, and what makes you think it'd be done so quickly. How long did it take to catch Sadam, again?

 

[turbo]

Let's look at reality. NK cannot even feed its own people, so how can it afford to mobilize and feed and supply its own army to wage a war? They are powerless. Does the phrase "paper tiger" ring a bell? The incessant saber-rattling by NK's "leader" is ridiculous, and it appears to be motivated by a desire for aid and appeasement. Fear-mongering over the NK situation is counter-productive. They aren't a threat to the US, and we should stop acting like we need to counter their moves. (Kind of like a kindergarten student calling out Mike Tyson.)

 

[Equate]

Whenever they want to have a serious talk about reconciliation with the South, which I think could have happened already by now if we had been less antagonistic.

Good point.




PS Your avatar is quite annoying.

 

[math_04]

I guess North Korea just proved us right;

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...orea-claims-US-could-provoke-nuclear-war.html

It believes that America has nuclear missiles aimed at them and furthermore that America wants to start a nuclear war.

 

[Office_Shredder]

Let's look at reality. NK cannot even feed its own people, so how can it afford to mobilize and feed and supply its own army to wage a war? They are powerless. Does the phrase "paper tiger" ring a bell? The incessant saber-rattling by NK's "leader" is ridiculous, and it appears to be motivated by a desire for aid and appeasement. Fear-mongering over the NK situation is counter-productive. They aren't a threat to the US, and we should stop acting like we need to counter their moves. (Kind of like a kindergarten student calling out Mike Tyson.)

North Korea drops 5+ billion a year on its military. It can definitely feed its army if it needs to, especially given how the regime doesn't care about malnutrition in the general population anyway.

Nobody's said North Korea is going to attack the US, so I don't know why you think that. More probable is North Korea attacking South Korea, which happens to be a US ally. North Korea could be a threat to Japan, and has made a point of demonstrating (or trying to) a capability of hitting Japan with missiles

 

[kyleb]

What about the arm race in that region? NK wouldn't be the only one to expand its military powers.

NK isn't the only one expanding it's military powers, but I don't see how getting worked up about testing a nuke is doing anything but inflaming that situation.

Wow, that's a pretty naive statement. He's only detonating nukes and shooting rockets over other countries. Nothing to worry about you say? The term "detached from reality" comes to mind.

How many "rockets"? I recall one which went over Japan, but that could well have been a technical malfunction for all I know. As for detonating nukes, surely you know we have done plenty of nuclear weapon testing ourselves?

Who's going to "topple him" though, and what makes you think it'd be done so quickly. How long did it take to catch Sadam, again?

Saddam was topped shortly after we set out to do it, and had he launched a nuke, it would have united the the better part of the world to make an example out of him. Granted, he could have still made it to his spider hole, but even as it was he didn't live much longer. Put simply; were "Dear Leader" to launch a nuke he'd soon be a dead leader, with North Korea reintegrated under the government of the south South in short order, his life's work would be systematically dismantled.

PS Your avatar is quite annoying.

Huh, I've received a few complements on it before and never a complaint, so I hope you don't take it personally if I leave it up. I made it one day while pondering the concept of duality. Perhaps if you consider it from that perspective you might be more comfortable with it, I find it soothing myself.

I do thank both you and CRGreathouse for agreeing with me on various points, I had been wondering if I was the only one here who finds this NK talk heavy on handwaving.

I guess North Korea just proved us right;

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...orea-claims-US-could-provoke-nuclear-war.html

It believes that America has nuclear missiles aimed at them and furthermore that America wants to start a nuclear war.

Looks more to me like the NK government is just making exaggerated arguments to rally its masses around it, which is hardly original.

Nobody's said North Korea is going to attack the US, so I don't know why you think that. More probable is North Korea attacking South Korea, which happens to be a US ally. North Korea could be a threat to Japan, and has made a point of demonstrating (or trying to) a capability of hitting Japan with missiles

I highly doubt they could ever fool themselves into beliving anything like that would go over well for them.

 

[Office_Shredder]

I highly doubt they could ever fool themselves into beliving anything like that would go over well for them.

Yeah, because the US keeps aggravating them and makes it clear that we'll step in and deal with the situation if that happens.

 

[kyleb]

Again, I don't see making a scene out of stating the obvious is doing anything but reinforcing their desire for a strong nuclear deterrent, I'd much rather let them feel comfortable enough to find other things to do with their time.

 

[TheStatutoryApe]

Again, I don't see making a scene out of stating the obvious is doing anything but reinforcing their desire for a strong nuclear deterrent, I'd much rather let them feel comfortable enough to find other things to do with their time.

What is the difference between attempting deterence and failing versus not attempting deterence? They wind up with the missile technology either way right? Do you think they will slow down development without pressure from the US? South Korea and Japan are not just going to decide they are ok with this and back off so there will be pressure put on them either way. Do you seriously think that without the US trying to stop them N. Korea will just get bored and move on to other things? That seems rather laughable.

 

[kyleb]

Do you seriously think that without the US trying to stop them N. Korea will just get bored and move on to other things?

I think that us pressuring NK to stop doing what we have done far more of is only furthering their defiance. I've yet to see a reason to believe otherwise.

 

[CRGreathouse]

PS [Kyleb's] avatar is quite annoying.

In Firefox (and possibly in your browser of choice), pressing [Esc] makes animations on the page stop.

 

[math_04]

Look, invading North Korea is not viable but certainly, there has to be a line drawn to North Korea and if they cross that line, it should be communicated that they will face serious consequences. As much as the words 'nuclear deterrent' seems music to some ears, we cannot kid ourselves of how dangerous the regime of Kim Jong Il is. Appeasement and slap on the wrists will further embolden the regime to escalate the situation knowing that little will be done.

With nuclear weapons, it takes only one strike at a Japanese or South Korean city to kill hundreds of thousands if not a million and cause widespread devastation. Imagine if they test a missile armed with a nuclear warhead and knowing how crude their missiles are, who knows where they might explode. The scenario of launching a missile with a nuclear warhead will come to pass; once they are confident in the nuclear bombs and once they develop the capability to deliver a payload on the missiles...there is no going back. This kind of war can erupt without warning; a small cross border incident, a naval engagement, new sanctions etc can all escalate very quickly to a nuclear conflict which will result in unimaginable casualties. If we step aside and allow North Korea to further threaten America, South Korea and Japan, allow it to further perfect its nuclear capabilities while its own population is on the brink of starvation (so much for the communist ideology) without drawing a line and standing up to them, then we are cowards.

And kyleb, a militaristic, irrational dictatorship does not move on to other things. It remains a militaritic irrational dictatorship that continues to invest heavily in arms, continues to build nuclear bombs while its own people are dying from living on less than a loaf of bread every day. Kim Jong Il and his associates have their eyes fixed on a forceful reunification of the Korea and their blind hatred for everything un-North Korean will not go away just because we do nothing about it.

 

[TheStatutoryApe]

I think that us pressuring NK to stop doing what we have done far more of is only furthering their defiance. I've yet to see a reason to believe otherwise.

This is the second time you have side stepped my questions.
Will they not achieve their goals with or without pressure from the US? And is it not preferable to attempt deterence even if it is not successful rather than simply allow the inevitable to happen uncontested?

 

[Tibarn]

It's mostly posturing. With Seoul within artillery range of North Korea and Japan close enough to fire a rocket barrage or missiles at, North Korea can destroy several cities in South Korea and Japan if the US threatens to invade. Nukes are just another deterrent. North Korea's defense comes down to "attack us and we'll destroy your allies". They know well that they stand no chance in a full-scale war against the United States. China certainly won't back them if they launch a first strike.

Essentially, they're in a perfect position to piss off the international community and win nice little propaganda victories against the United States with no fear of reprisal. We can threaten North Korea all we want, but it's not worth losing tens or even hundreds of thousands of South Korean and Japanese civilians unless they really do something drastic. I don't think the North Korean government is nearly as irrational as they pretend to be.

Don't expect China to do much to restrain North Korea either. Unless North Korea becomes a real threat to China, it serves as an excellent buffer zone to limit US influence. The last thing the Chinese want is an American military presence on their doorstep.

 

[kyleb]

Kim Jong Il and his associates have their eyes fixed on a forceful reunification of the Korea and their blind hatred for everything un-North Korean will not go away just because we do nothing about it.

How do you figure? That would be like Saddam and his associates invading Kuwait without thinking he had the green light from us, only multiple times stupider. Seriously, I'd put the odds of it happening at next to nil, whether we keep whining about his nuclear testing or not.

This is the second time you have side stepped my questions.

When you end a series of questions with "That seems rather laughable", it should hardly be a shock that they are taken rhetorically. And I've never intended to side step any of your questions, but rather considered my response to the last one fit to adress the others well enough.

Will they not achieve their goals with or without pressure from the US?

Again, I think that us pressuring NK is only convincing them to set their nuclear weapons aspirations even higher. If you want a more direct answer than that I'll have to resort to my magic 8-ball.

And is it not preferable to attempt deterence even if it is not successful rather than simply allow the inevitable to happen uncontested?

When attempted deterrence seems counterproductive, I'd prefer to avoid it.

Besides, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yoF518hBFjU"?

Seriously though, I'm not suggesting we do anything but our best from keeping nuclear weapons technology and materials out of NK's hands, I'm just don't see any good coming from making a big deal about their testing what they already have.

 

[TheStatutoryApe]

Again, I think that us pressuring NK is only convincing them to set their nuclear weapons aspirations even higher. If you want a more direct answer than that I'll have to resort to my magic 8-ball.

When you said that you think it would only make them more defiant in their persuit I did not see any qualitative difference to the outcome between NK striving defiantly for advanced nuclear weapons and simply striving for them in general. As for setting their goals higher I doubt that the US has much to do with that or that they would not do so absent US pressure. Local diplomatic dysfunction seems to accomplish that all on its own.

When attempted deterrence seems counterproductive, I'd prefer to avoid it.

Besides, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yoF518hBFjU"?

Seriously though, I'm not suggesting we do anything but our best from keeping nuclear weapons technology and materials out of NK's hands, I'm just don't see any good coming from making a big deal about their testing what they already have.

I don't see it as being counter productive since I don't see any reason to believe that NK would back down on its nuclear weapons program without US involvement.
I think that what we are seeing from NK is a want for attention as opposed to lack of it. In most cases not giving attention to the attention seeker is an appropriate strategy but some attention seeking actions just can not be ignored. I would consider launching test missiles over your neighbours yard one of those types of action. A different strategy for diplomatic intervention may be required but this would have to be done with cooperation from South Korea and Japan who understandably are rather more upset and worried about this than the US.



And are you making fun of me? >:0
;-)