Is the Public Perception of Global Warming Reaching a Tipping Point?

[Schrodinger's Dog]

Good for you.

London, nice place to visit but I wouldn't want to live their. Too much polution( London gave me spots) Or their was before they introduced a charge for driving in London.

Why isn't climate change a good reason to reduce energy consumption? Could you clarify what you mean there?

 

[Andre]

Because there is no connection. The contribution of CO2 to greenhouse effect is very limited and due to the saturation effect, even a significant increase in the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere will have an almost negliglible effect on the global temperatures.

Unexplained that here.

 

[Mk]

There are suggestions that dimming was behind the droughts in sub-Saharan Africa which claimed hundreds of thousands of lives in the 1970s and 80s.

How would this happen? The sunlight isn't being put in different places—wouldn't there just be a tiny bit less?

 

[Schrodinger's Dog]

Because there is no connection. The contribution of CO2 to greenhouse effect is very limited and due to the saturation effect, even a significant increase in the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere will have an almost negliglible effect on the global temperatures.

Unexplained that here.

it the only effect we can directly control though and from graphs I've seen it does have a significant effect. In a business as usual scenario CO2 could raise Global Mean Temperatures between 1-5 degrees in the next 50 years, that's pretty significant no?

How would this happen? The sunlight isn't being put in different places—wouldn't there just be a tiny bit less?

Believe me I don't understand that assertion either, perhaps an ecology boffin could explain, their are all sorts of problems with the assertions in the article, which is why I put it up, someone was using it as an excuse to advocate that global warming wasn't real, or was having a negligable effect. I think this article is a strawman.

 

[Andre]

it the only effect we can directly control though and from graphs I've seen it does have a significant effect. In a business as usual scenario CO2 could raise Global Mean Temperatures between 1-5 degrees in the next 50 years, that's pretty significant no?

Dunno. It's all about the warming value for double CO2. Pure mathematically, substituting total radiation numers of the MODTRAN IV calculation into Stefan Boltzman's law for black bodies, you'd get 0,7 degrees C per doubling CO2 instantaneously and after resettling of thermal equilibrium it would be 1,2 degrees. But this would take a few centuries.

So if we hack now at 375 ppmv and we have an increase of 1,2 ppmv per year it would be around 300 years before we double, wouldn't it? and a few more centuries before thermal equilibrium.

So, why those high numbers? 1.5 to 4.5 for this century, I think, the last time I looked. Because the simple numbers 0.7 and 1.2 for the clean physics are not seen in the wild. If we assume that the numbers of the last century, some 0,6 degrees temp increase is purely depending on the increase of CO2 from 280 to 370 ppmv then empirically it seems much worse. It's explained by a positive feedback from all kind of factors, which would boost up the clean numbers.

This is where the hockeystick comes in. When this was to be true:

compared with the CO2 hockeystick:

http://www.ens-lyon.fr/Planet-Terre/Infosciences/Climats/Rechauffement/Images/imageTCO2/CO2-1000ans.gif

...then you got the no-brainer, which has convinced the world that climate disaster was imminent; suggesting that climate is hyper-sensitive to CO2 changes

But the hockeystick is false, death, fake (updated with an interesting article). The Medieval Warm Period is back; making a big spike in the start of the temperature hockeystick, but not in the CO2 hockeystick. this shows that climate variability is much more independent from CO2. Considering further the long term history of CO2, as in five times the current level 50 millions years ago when the climate cooled at middle eocene, then the hypersensitivity cannot be true.

There is much more to this but the post is long enough for the time being, I guess.

 

[Schrodinger's Dog]

Do you know I've never seen a European expounding the other side of this debate it's usually Conservative US citizens or Australians, and their motives are somewhat biased by their political leanings(not that their stuff isn't interesting, it's just you've always got to question science with bias) I am convinced personally by the scientists that we are seeing a significant effect of CO2 but in the last year or so I have seen some fascinating counter examples which although they don't make me think the mainstream view is wrong they do give cause for concern that models aren't the whole story, that said personally it's not a bad thing as you said to make people think about preserving their environment and limiting energy usage, paticularly fossil fuels, if we're wrong then no harm done, in fact we probably will save lives anyway, if we're right then it's all gravy, either way it's win-win scenario for mankind. If only everyone was on board with this.

 

[Andre]

SD, would you think that it's impossible that ordinary unbiased people could be a little curious and a little suspicious when somebody showns a hockestick graph declares all previous science about natural climate variation void and that everybody has to cut emissions or else we all fry?

Is it really necesary to be a right wing conservative greedy oil baron not to buy that? How about those neutral unbiased scientist who saw their work being thrashed?

There is a lot to do about environment, advance of civilisation, destruction of biotopes, declining biodiversity, empty seas, etc. All serious problems, al worth fighting for but it's most definitely not by the same token to buy the physical unrealistic CO2- greenhouse gas global warming myth. It has nothing to do with any of the real environmental problems.

Any idea why all those people who doubt anthropogenic global warming are indeed those climate deniers, enemies of nature, greedy selfish crooks, bribes by the oil companies.

Perhaps because their characters are murdered like http://risingtide.org.uk/pages/voices/hall_shame.htm for instance. So if you are worried about the environment you keep encountering this kind of partisan demagoguery there is probably no way to avoid believing that every climate septic is a crook by definition. Actually I know many of them and most are those specialists whose work was voided by the hockeystick coup.

Cutting back CO2 is not per definition a win win situation if it is done on the wrong grounds and with the wrong priorities. There is absolutely no reason to panic now and take crash actions which will soon backfire, like the massive growth of counterproductive wind farms and penalizing emissions, theathening economic crises. We still have decennia to devellop alternatives to avoid being caught with empty oil wells and no alternatives.

 

[Mk]

Any idea why all those people who doubt anthropogenic global warming are indeed those climate deniers, enemies of nature, greedy selfish crooks, bribes by the oil companies.

Perhaps because their characters are murdered like here for instance. So if you are worried about the environment you keep encountering this kind of partisan demagoguery there is probably no way to avoid believing that every climate septic is a crook by definition. Actually I know many of them and most are those specialists whose work was voided by the hockeystick coup.

Oh my god, I thought we were just laughed at. There's actually an offense. The "Wall of Shame?" That's terrible.

 

[Andre]

Right, you may have learned from history that it's not the first time that hatred campaigns against certain groups can be associated with world fires, like WW II or the Russian and French revolutions. The population was to be convinced that there was a vicious enemy in our midst that would need to be eradicated.

Perhaps dig up some speeches of Robespierre, Lenin or Goebbels and see how enemy building is done.

 

[Mk]

Within the last week junkscience.com added to the top of the page "Climate Clown of the Moment."

I don't like that. That's a Wall of Shame.

 

[Andre]

Is global warming Junkscience?

Perhaps, if it can be proven that the hockeystick was distorting reality on purpose. There are several strong clues for that.

But Junkscience is bringing the message the confronting way.

But http://www.junkscience.com/Skeptics_on_trial.htm is outrageous indeed. I guess there is no way to stop the witch hunt. At the other hand, would such a trial demand evidence that the global warming is caused by increased CO2? The people listed there are more than capable to show that tonns of reasonable doubt about that.

Like here for instance

 

[Schrodinger's Dog]

SD, would you think that it's impossible that ordinary unbiased people could be a little curious and a little suspicious when somebody showns a hockestick graph declares all previous science about natural climate variation void and that everybody has to cut emissions or else we all fry?

Is it really necesary to be a right wing conservative greedy oil baron not to buy that? How about those neutral unbiased scientist who saw their work being thrashed?

There is a lot to do about environment, advance of civilisation, destruction of biotopes, declining biodiversity, empty seas, etc. All serious problems, al worth fighting for but it's most definitely not by the same token to buy the physical unrealistic CO2- greenhouse gas global warming myth. It has nothing to do with any of the real environmental problems.

Any idea why all those people who doubt anthropogenic global warming are indeed those climate deniers, enemies of nature, greedy selfish crooks, bribes by the oil companies.

Perhaps because their characters are murdered like http://risingtide.org.uk/pages/voices/hall_shame.htm for instance. So if you are worried about the environment you keep encountering this kind of partisan demagoguery there is probably no way to avoid believing that every climate septic is a crook by definition. Actually I know many of them and most are those specialists whose work was voided by the hockeystick coup.

Cutting back CO2 is not per definition a win win situation if it is done on the wrong grounds and with the wrong priorities. There is absolutely no reason to panic now and take crash actions which will soon backfire, like the massive growth of counterproductive wind farms and penalizing emissions, theathening economic crises. We still have decennia to devellop alternatives to avoid being caught with empty oil wells and no alternatives.

No and I have read your links and am interested by your side of the story, I'm listening OK, just don't expect me to throw aside the doors to the temple because of evidence of misrepresentation, you do have to remember that dumming down science even if it is dishonest is a ploy by the Governments to make what is a highly technical deabte more palatable, it's not just some conspiracy to keep the world bemused and misinformed, I'm afraid I can't buy that until I see something more concrete.

It's sad that good science is ridiculed, but stick at it if you are right then it's only a matter of time. Einstein was right in the end, Copernicus got a grudging adimital that the Earthcentric universe was wrong from the Catholic church in the 20th century, OK it took nearly 400 years but he was right. We'll see, science is nothing if not willing to change, although like any institution it does not do so overnight, and as I'm not a climatology expert I expect to see efforts by both sides to build a watertight case, until I see that, I see no harm in believing one side over another, in fact it's postively beneficial in my case, even if it's hogwash, although I don't believe that yet, is a yet a good enough compromise for you .

Efforts by both sides of the debate are scientific, especially if one side is trying to overturn accepted fact.

Science is evolutionary, if it dies it leaves offspring that are fitter, hopefully, to build a better model.

Schrodinger once said although I'm not sure it's entirley apropriate and I'm paraphrasing a bit

My one regret is that I will not be alive to see the death of quantum mechanics as I know it.

 

[Mk]

No and I have read your links and am interested by your side of the story, I'm listening OK, just don't expect me to throw aside the doors to the temple because of evidence of misrepresentation, you do have to remember that dumming down science even if it is dishonest is a ploy by the Governments to make what is a highly technical deabte more palatable, it's not just some conspiracy to keep the world bemused and misinformed, I'm afraid I can't buy that until I see something more concrete.

Is it that you have read this thread?
https://www.physicsforums.com/showthread.php?t=54723

 

[Schrodinger's Dog]

No but thanks anyway, an interesting read. The last thing I want to do is try and represent my side as being right or worthy of respect absolutely, I of course know better than to expouse a theory without having the education or the incontravertable evidence to back up my claims

 

[Pythagorean]

I was always under the impression that there wasn't much proof either way.

I mean, seriously, try to record the data of the whole Earth in a reasonable way. It just seems kind of difficult to get any kind of believable measurements with heterogenous temperatures and turbulent forces everywhere.

And one man can't possibly do it. So how do you trust that everyone collecting the data is using an accurate method, and how can you be sure everyone compiling the data didn't make any errors and how can you be sure the people calculating the implications of the data (i.e. the hockeystick) are using the right kind of statistics techniques?

If there's so much controversy over this, there's obviously not a solid answer.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

IMO, we have to make a choice based on our best guess. The problem here is that many people want undeniable proof or absolute agreement, but we may not have the luxury of time to wait for such proof. From what I can tell, for most of us at least, this is a game of playing the odds, so we need to look at the risk/benefit ratio. Obviously we can't all become climate experts in order to decide, and anyone of lesser credentials has no business arguing about or interpreting the science.

What do we almost always call do-it-yourself physics by amateurs? Nonsense?

 

[Ivan Seeking]

If the experts can't agree, how likely is it that anyone here knows best?

 

[Evo]

I can't say that I've bought into the Global Warming issue, there just aren't enough abnormailiteis that can't be explained away by common cycles, but anything we can do to preserve our natural environment I wholeheartedly endorse.

So, if the fear of global warming makes people more environmentally conscious, the results can only be positive. I don't see progress coming to a screaching halt, money talks.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Going green not only makes sense, which many corporations are beginning to learn, but [in the US] the switch to domestically produced, alternative, carbon neutral fuels, is worth about the cost of the Iraq war to date, every year.

http://newscenter.verizon.com/proactive/newsroom/release.vtml?id=92841
I just saw that this is doing about twice as well as expected in energy cost reductions.

 

[rcgldr]

Well if global warming becomes a big issue, they could set off a few hydrogen bombs in the oceans to create a mini nuclear winter.

It's not the bombs that bring about a nuclear winter, its the smoke and soot from the things that are set aflame.

Go for the smaller cities.

Wouldn't the steam / clouds from the oceans cause a similar effect? Clouds make pretty good insulators. There's got to be some pratical use for all that excess tritium we have.

And what about creating bigger holes in the ozone layer at the south pole to release more radiated heat?

 

[Andre]

So the general gist here appear to be:

the appeal to authority fallacy: you're nobody, so you're wrong.
and even if there is no global warming it can't hurt pretending, and force the people to think greener.

1: the authority fallacy:

So there is this professor traveling all around the country to give his lectures. His driver is always in the audience listening and when driving back, he uses to annoy the professor by asking critical questions. So the professor asks: "Okay, If you know it better why don't you give the next lecture?" So that happened, and the driver did a good job on that in the next lecture somewhere else. Then, however, a question came from the public which he did not who how to deal with. So he said, while pointing to the professor in the audience: "that looks like a clever question, however it's so obvious that I'll let my driver here answering it."

Here are a few of the "drivers":

http://www.leoprize.org/?Welcome
http://www.leoprize.org/?Prize_winner_2006 (see the sub-links)
http://sharpgary.org/2005_Onward.html
https://www.21stcenturysciencetech.com/Articles 2005/NoGlobalWarm.pdf
http://www.atmos.uah.edu/atmos/john_pubs.html
http://www.swissinfo.org/eng/Swissinfo.html?siteSect=511&sid=5080155
http://pubs.acs.org/cgi-bin/abstract.cgi/enfuem/2006/20/i03/abs/ef050276y.html

and within the article:

...More specifically, the outcome of the analysis does not support the concept of “forcing” or precipitation of bifurcation behavior because of increased CO2. Rather, although the evidence is clear that global warming is currently occurring as discussed elsewhere, it would appear, nevertheless, that it is not the rising carbon dioxide concentration that is driving up the temperature

Now go and check the authority of those authors.

or you can go here and visit:

http://gamma.physchem.kth.se/~climate/
http://gamma.physchem.kth.se/~climate/presentations.htm

2: About it-can't-hurt-and-get-the-people-to-think-greener

The question is if it is wise to hold climate hostage for it. So what would happen if the next Landscheidt solar minimum in 2020-2030 get the world into another little ice age after the billion$ $$ that went into the bottomless pit of attempting to reduce CO2. Can we cope with that and wouldn't environmental science be totally bankrupt after such a clear disaster of being utterly wrong. Wouldn't it be a lot better to fight the environmental problems directly and creating awareness in the process. And wouldn't environmental science be better off, if it adjusted to the real world evidence now, after the disaster of the fake hockeystick, instead of building fancy but imaginary models that can only cause warming using imaginary parameters in an imaginary world?

 

[Mk]

I see some "sine of latitude" axis in the graphs linking out from the LEO prize. What is that about?

 

[jimmie]

there just aren't enough abnormailiteis that can't be explained away by common cycles,

According to a segment on global warming yesterday on 60 Minutes, 98% of all glaciers on the planet are melting, and doing so at a high rate, which is not normal. Also, according to the 60 minutes report, the levels of CO2 and the temperature are higher now -the last 50 years- than anytime in the last few hundred thousand years, if not millions of years.

So, if the fear of global warming makes people more environmentally conscious, the results can only be positive.

There should be no fear.

Perhaps, if all independant nations would conspire to preserve the whole planet rather than only that part which is within their borders -a system that is sorely redundant- there would be coordination and cooperation and no fear of anything, including war or global warming.

 

[Mk]

Also, according to the 60 minutes report, the levels of CO2 and the temperature are higher now -the last 50 years- than anytime in the last few hundred thousand years, if not millions of years.

Well, of course. Everybody agrees on that as far as I know.
http://www.mwnx.net/users/mac/Climatology/Co2.tiff

 

[jimmie]

Oh yeah, the report also said the debate is over as to whether or not global warming is anthropogenic; it is.

 

[Pythagorean]

Oh yeah, the report also said the debate is over as to whether or not global warming is anthropogenic; it is.

I don't think 60 minutes is qualified to make a scientific assertion like that. Firstly, they represent one network that makes it's money from selling ratings (and their funders are only interested in ratings to sell products). And two, they represent one country, the USA, who's politicians already hold a confusing stance on global warming. The politicians are tied into the media and oil companies.

Also, just because a paper or two gets published in a scientific journal, doesn't always mean it's an accurate portrait of all the events and their dependencies.

From my laymen point of view, I think the 'hockey stick' authors are just as questionable as Mann (who's journal article supported the anthropological connection). They made a rebuttle to Mann's statistics, but without understanding the complexity of the math, myself, I have to be suspicious of the authors of the hockey stick article because the primary author is tied to oil companies, and the secondary author is tied to economics. I always hear economic majors practicing arguing about global warming, claiming that reduction of fossil fuel levels is uneconomically realistic, which isn't really the argument at hand, but it implies to me that both oil companies and economists are threatened if the antrhopological connection is true.

I don't think anybody can really judge yet. We're talking about international collaboration of a crapload of data in different languages, with possible errors all over. Now that it's such a big deal (and since the politicians are pushing their sides of the issue so much) I'm seeing so much disagreement that I don't think anyone really knows what's really going on.

They just have a lot of data and assumptions, so they can (each of them) pick at the data and connect it to their assumptions. I think we need mroe time for this one.

 

[jimmie]

I think we need mroe time for this one.

Uhh...the 60 Minutes report was based upon research that included core samples from the arctic and antarctic that provide data from the past 650,000 years.

I don't think anybody can really judge yet.

What do you think is required, aside from more time, for anybody to accurately judge the global warming issue?

 

[Mk]

A skeptical mind, and one that is untampered with by politicians, oil companies, environmentalists, or fear provided by news reports. One that is tampered with by straight, unpoliticized, scientific evidence.

I don't think anybody can really judge yet. We're talking about international collaboration of a crapload of data in different languages, with possible errors all over. Now that it's such a big deal (and since the politicians are pushing their sides of the issue so much) I'm seeing so much disagreement that I don't think anyone really knows what's really going on.

Not only that, but the data is touched to death. By "touch," I mean tamper. The data is manipulated and changed. Data is thrown out like crazy. Adjustments for such things as the Urban Heat Island effect (UHI), are crude, and unreliable.

A radiometic dating technique determined an odd date for the time a mastadon lived, and it was thrown out.
https://www.physicsforums.com/showthread.php?t=127240

 

[jimmie]

Ok, forget all data.

What about the archive of pictures of various glaciers, snow packs, the arctic, the antarctic, and Greenland that clearly show how the snow and ice have visibly and rapidly melted over the last 50 years?

 

[Andy]

Not sure how true it is, but i heard that the glacier in Iceland (i think) is growing and not melting.

 

[Andy]

If that glacier in Iceland is getting larger then does that mean that part of the world is getting colder?

Sounds abit simple to me but global warming as a term should refer to the whole planet and if the glacier in Iceland is getting larger then iceland is not warming, maybe we should find out why Iceland is an exception.

This is assuming that i did hear correctly about the Iceland glacier, if not just ignore me.

 

[Astronuc]

I don't think 60 minutes is qualified to make a scientific assertion like that.

Now that's an understatement. Actually, AFAIK, no media organization is qualified to make any credible assertion about anything scientific.

Anyway, as to Global Warming and its cause(s), and whether or not there is an anthropogenic cause - I'm still undecided, because I have not seen a clean and clear presentation of all the data and analyses. Clearly there seems to be a correlation with some variables, such as the quantity of CO₂. On the other hand as Andre has pointed out, moisture (H₂O) also absorbs thermal radiation.

What are other possible causes?

Geological activity - lots of thermal energy within the earth. Pros, cons?

Solar activity - is the sun producing more heat than say 10, 20, 50, 100 years ago? Pros, cons? Couldn't one simply measure the solar photon flux and measure the energy incident upon the earth? Or perhaps look at the various emission lines to see if there is a shift in the temperature of the photosphere?

Changes in the atmoshphere? Have there been changes in the Earth's atmosphere that have reduced the Earth's albedo or reflectance of solar flux?

Changes to the Earth's surface? Well here we have destruction of the temperate and tropical forests, which could increase the Earth's surface termperature by virtue of absorption of the solar photon flux (UV and visible light) thus heating up and storing the energy which is then released more slowly, and in the infrared spectrum, which is more readily absorbed by the atmosphere. The reflectance of the Earth's surface (ground) has certainly changed over the last century or two. In addition, there is more dust in the atmosphere from soot from combustion, fine sandy dust from deserts, and grime from human activity. Solution here would be to replenish the forests.

What about the culprit, CO₂? What else has increased in conjunction with CO₂? Well, how about energy generation? Coal, oil and natural gas are burned to produce electricity, in addition to providing thermal process energy. In addition to electricity, thermal energy is generated. Many coal and oil plants use the Rankine (steam) thermodynamic cycle to convert thermal to mechanical energy, however, the Rankine cycle has an efficiency in the range of 33-40%, with higher efficiencies obtained with superheated steam. That means that between 60-67% of the thermal energy is simply 'dumped' directly into the enviroment. The generation of energy has increased along with CO₂. And, the Rankine cycle is the cycle used in nuclear power plants. On a positive note, combined cycle plants using aeroderivative gas turbines (~40-45% efficiency) with the exhaused passed through a Rankine (steam) cycle (~30% efficient) can get about 60-62% thermal to mechanical conversion efficiency, so thermal energy is required for a given amount of electrical energy. If energy production is a factor, then increasing nuclear energy generation will NOT solve the problem of GW.

The solution to GW maybe to reduce the production of energy, offset by the use of 'more efficient' processes. Or use more renewable energy sources, e.g. wind and solar.

What are the ramifications of slightly higher temperatures? More energy in the atmosphere can mean more intense weather and catastrophic storms, e.g. hurricanes, tornados, etc. In some cases, more rain means - more flooding - with concommitant increase in insect borne diseases

Warmer weather may produce ares of drought - e.g. in N and S Dakota - which could reduce food production. In the extreme, people will simply have insufficient food resources.

Warmer weather in association with agricultural runoff means increases in certain phyto- and zoo-plankton which proliferate and then subsequently die. Bacteria then proliferate and produce anoxic 'dead zones' in places like the Gulf of Mexico, which has one of the largest dead zones in the world. ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dead_zone_(ecology) ) This is also a threat to the global food supply.

 

[Pythagorean]

Uhh...the 60 Minutes report was based upon research that included core samples from the arctic and antarctic that provide data from the past 650,000 years.



What do you think is required, aside from more time, for anybody to accurately judge the global warming issue?

That's unreliable data. First of all, 650,000 years is a tiny chunk of Earth's lifetime. If you were only studying tide for five hours, you'd think it was flooding, right? A whole tide cycle takes 12 hours, but you'd want to watch it for three or four days to make sure the pattern repeats itself (and there's actually long term variations, even in the tide) and you're not just seeing a biased record of events. Secondly, it's not like people have been measuring temperature for 650,000 years. It's an assumption based on an ice core sample from a particular part of the world. Again, I can't judge because I don't know the tehcnique they use to take data from an ice core, but (once more) I'm not a climatologist! Once there's a concencus between the atmospheric scientists, I might be more willing to accept the verdict. For now, it seems there isn't one.

I can't tell you that particulars of what is required to accurately judge the gblobal warming issue. The Earth is a REALLY complex system, and I am no climatologist, nor do I intend to be. Astronuc's post right above implies a considerable number of tests that seem helpful in demystifying global warming.

I want to be aware of the truth, that's all. Though my gut feeling says "yes, global warming is anthropogenic" my intellect still requires significant satisfaction because a gut feeling isn't enough (unless, of course, I was a detective).

 

[Andre]

Good thinking Pythagorean. Truth isn't always the sincere opinion of the majority.

So if Global warming is about greenhouse effect of CO2 and CO2 is a global signal, then you'd expect a rather even warming of both northern and southern hemisphere.

Remember that the satellite data for the lower atmosphere have been corrected and show more warming than before. Also, you may expect those satellite data to play a major role in the next (fourth) assessment report of the International Panel on Climate Change (FAR IPCC). Consequently those data are widely accepted.

Here are the http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/t2lt/tltglhmam_5.2 , july 2006 has just been entered today.

Let's put that in a graph, checking Northern and Southern Hemisphere.

http://home.wanadoo.nl/bijkerk/lower-troposphere.gif

Observe the difference. The northern hemisphere warms about four times as fast as the southern hemisphere. Not nearly as evenly distributed as you would expect from the greenhouse effect.

Now suppose that it was just increase in sunshine as I posted before. Then you would expect land to be much more sensitive to warming than sea. Now isn't north most land and south most sea?

 

[Andre]

Oh yeah, the report also said the debate is over as to whether or not global warming is anthropogenic; it is.

Right, let's find out why it is said that the debate is over:

http://www.ippr.org.uk/ecomm/files/warm_words.pdf

Treating climate change as beyond argument Much of the noise in the climate change discourse comes from argument and counter-argument, and it is our recommendation that, at least for popular communications, interested agencies now need to treat the argument as having been won. This means simply behaving as if climate change exists and is real, and that individual actions are effective.

I do hope that this triggers some association with 1984 and newspeak designed by the ministery of truth to fight "thoughtcrime"

 

[Mk]

Geological activity - lots of thermal energy within the earth. Pros, cons?

Rock is a very good thermal insulator, but I'm not sure we know that much about activity in the mantle. Some people have suggested the mantle is getting hotter in some places, to cause a global warming.

It seems to me that in the US we have finally reached critical mass. Since to a large extent TV merely feeds people what they want to watch and what they already believe, and since TV execs spend a great deal of money to know what people want, I keep an eye on television programming as a measure of the public pulse. Based on this and other events in the news, I suspect that we have gone over the edge: Whereas previously, in the public mind [on the average] nothing was caused by global warming, now everything will be blamed on global warming. More and more I see direct references to events like Katrina, the droughts and fires in the SW US this winter, melting bergs, the current temperatures in the Western US, rising sea levels etc, all within the context of GW. They never say it directly yet, but always the strong implication is that this is anthropogenic global warming knocking at your door.

I think that is a terrific assessment.

Have you seen the commercial that flashes from one child to another, with each saying "tick", and with each "tick" a little louder than the last, until finally they are yelling at you? TICK! TICK! TICK!

Yeah, I thought that was very effective.

 

[Mk]

Though my gut feeling says "yes, global warming is anthropogenic" my intellect still requires significant satisfaction because a gut feeling isn't enough (unless, of course, I was a detective).

I love Magnum P.I.! :!)

 

[jimmie]

Quote:
I don't think 60 minutes is qualified to make a scientific assertion like that.

Now that's an understatement. Actually, AFAIK, no media organization is qualified to make any credible assertion about anything scientific.

Uhh...the 60 Minutes report was based upon research done by Dr. Robert W. Corell, Chair of the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment and Senior Fellow, American Meteorological Society.

60 Minutes was not making the scientific assertion; it was delivering the scientific assertion made from Dr. Corell.

Back in 1987, President Reagan asked Corell to look into climate change. He's been at it ever since.

From a Rolling Stone magazine interview:

Few scientists know as much about how global warming is changing the world as Robert Corell. As chair of the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, Corell oversaw a five-year study by 300 scientists from fifteen countries who studied the effects of climate change in the Arctic. The conclusion: Greenhouse gases are causing the planet to heat up faster than anyone realizes. "We're talking about the sea level rising at a rate of about a meter every hundred years or so," says Corell -- enough water to swallow a chunk of Florida and more than forty percent of Bangladesh.

The detailed findings -- laid out in a peer-reviewed, 1,200-page report published on October 21st -- provide the most advanced evidence yet of global warming's stark reality. But a year before the study was finished, the Bush administration stalled its progress, shutting down talks designed to come up with specific policy recommendations. "The United States took umbrage to the process, even though they had voted to create it," says Corell, a senior fellow with the American Meteorological Society. "They said the science was not complete." After a series of tense meetings in Greenland, Iceland and Denmark, the administration finally yielded -- endorsing the recommendations at 3 a.m. on the very last day of negotiations.

From 60 Minutes:

"When you look at the American government, which is saying essentially, 'Wait a minute. We need to study this some more. We can't flip our energy use overnight. It would hurt the economy.' When you hear that, what do you think?" Pelley asked.

"Well, what I do then is, I try to tell them exactly what we know scientifically. The science is, I believe, unassailable," says Corell. "I'm not arguing their policy, that's their business, how they deal with policy. But my job is to say, scientifically, shorten that time scale so that if you don't push out the effects of climate change into the long, long distant future. Because even under the best of circumstances, this natural system of a climate will continue to warm the planet for literally hundreds of years, no matter what we do."

 

[Andre]

About the arctic. Perhaps check here and see in an excellent 3d presentation of the refuted hockeystick on page 9 of the executive summary.

After the unanimous rebuttal ofthe MBH methods by the NAS report and the Wegman report, using the hockeystick now would be subject to laws about the use of false information

 

[Bystander]

Geological heating? Crustal heat flows are measured in mW/m². Heat from human activities? Tens of mW/m². Insignificant. Temperature record? Inadequate to say anything. Sea level rise? No decent mass balance. Cause and effect relationships among an inconclusive temperature record, decent sea level measurements, nonexistent ground water extraction data, Antarctic and Greenland ice cap volume estimates, and atmospheric CO₂ content? "Insufficient data."

 

[Andre]

As I sain on the bottom of the former page, which is the lousiest place to get a post in: The big difference between southern and nothern hemisphere is putting big question marks to the role of greenhouse effect in the warming.

That has also been noticed here.

 

[jimmie]

Geological heating? Crustal heat flows are measured in mW/m2. Heat from human activities? Tens of mW/m2. Insignificant. Temperature record? Inadequate to say anything. Sea level rise? No decent mass balance. Cause and effect relationships among an inconclusive temperature record, decent sea level measurements, nonexistent ground water extraction data, Antarctic and Greenland ice cap volume estimates, and atmospheric CO2 content? "Insufficient data."

Bystander, you conclude that heat from human activities is insignificant and [high] temperature records are inadequate, yet maintain that there is "insufficient data" to make a conclusion on global warming.

What other conclusions have you established based upon "insufficient data"?

Perhaps, Bystander, the only global warming data that is insufficient is the amount you currently retain.

 

[Andre]

Anyway when you want searching for the bottom of the debate. That's here.

...My biases: The pronouncements of climate modelers, who don't do experiments, don't make observations, don't even confect theories, but rather [in my opinion] play computer games using huge programs containing dozens of separate components the details of which they may be largely ignorant, don't move me. I am much more impressed by direct evidence: retreating glaciers, longer growing seasons, the migration of species, rising sea level, etc.

I have lived long enough to have seen many doomsday scenarios painted by people who profited by doing so, but which never came to pass. This has made me a skeptic. Perhaps global warming is an example of the old fable about the boy who cried wolf, but this time the doomsayers are, alas, right. Maybe, but I can't help noting that some of the prominent global warmers of today were global coolers of not so long ago. In particular, Steven Schneider, now at Stanford, previously at NCAR, about 30 years ago was sounding the alarm about an imminent ice age. The culprit then was particles belched into the atmosphere by human activities. No matter how the climate changes he can correctly say that he predicted it. No one in the atmospheric science community has been more successful at getting publicity. NCAR used to send my department clippings from newspaper and magazine articles in which NCAR researchers were named. We'd get thick wads of clippings, almost all of which were devoted to Schneider. Perhaps global warming is bad for the rest of us, but for Schneider and others it has been a godsend.

Within the past 10 years or so at least four ... alarming books on the possibility of asteroid collisions with Earth were published. Such collisions, if they were to occur, would be incomparably more disastrous than global warming. I also started to read, again within about the past 10 years, The Coming Plague [published in 1995]. It painted a picture of future plagues so ghastly and sickening that I couldn't continue reading it. The shelves of bookstores groan under the weight of books proclaiming disasters of all sorts. Take your pick of how we all are going to die horrible deaths. Repent!

People who write alarmist books are either trying to make a buck or they have an axe to grind. For example, it is in the best interests of astronomers to scare us so that we'll pressure the government to support astronomy research more generously. The same is true for biology, medicine, atmospheric science [and all sciences]. This does not mean that the alarmists are wrong or even dishonest, merely that in assessing their claims we must always ask about the extent to which they will profit from our believing and acting on them.

When I was a young man I read Famine 1975! by the Paddock brothers, one a foreign service officer, the other a tropical agriculture specialist. This book profoundly affected me. The Paddocks confidently predicted massive famines in 1975, and I believed them. But the famines did not turn out as predicted. And this is just one example among many.

Skeptics about global warming are often painted as hirelings of the oil and automotive industries. Such claims irritate me. I have never earned a nickel as a consequence of my skepticism. Indeed, I have lost hundreds of thousands of dollars by it. First, you have to understand how a large research university operates. The professors are expected to obtain research grants, and in the atmospheric sciences these grants come mostly from government agencies...

 

[Bystander]

Bystander, you conclude that heat from human activities is insignificant

Do the math.

and [high] temperature records are inadequate, yet maintain that there is "insufficient data" to make a conclusion on global warming.

Learn the physics.

What other conclusions have you established based upon "insufficient data"?

Greenhousers depend upon insufficient data, I do NOT.

Perhaps, Bystander, the only global warming data that is insufficient is the amount you currently retain.

Tell ya' what, sport --- you submit a paper to any journal that's worth the powder to blow it to hell with the kind of thermometry global warming arguments are based upon, and you'll be laughed off the planet. The meteorological record contains station measurements from thermometers accurate to plus or minus 1 K (2 F); these thermometers are placed in "standard" instrument shelters which are recognizable by any chemical engineer as very inefficient heat exchangers (collected radiant energy is transferred to air moving through the enclosures); the dependence of measured temperature on wind speed is NOT accounted for in the record, is 0.3 K to 1 K above true air temperature at 1 m/s, rises as a function of shelter and thermometer emissivities at lower velocities, and drops off at higher velocities. Wind "shadows" around weather stations have increased over the past century with increased population and the associated building and development activities. The global mean temperature is constructed from a "selection" of station records that swaps stations in and out of the average with fewer constraints than the DJIA applies to swapping index stocks --- "bad juju" for any statistician. The temperature record is so thoroughly shot through with errors in method and conservation of method as to be TOTALLY USELESS, therefore, "INCONCLUSIVE for any purposes.

 

[Bystander]

(snip)Again, I can't judge because I don't know the tehcnique they use to take data from an ice core, but (once more) I'm not a climatologist!(snip)
I can't tell you that particulars of what is required to accurately judge the gblobal warming issue. (snip)

You got a physics degree? You are a climatologist; mass, length, time, temperature, amount of substance, current, luminous intensity, little Newtonian physics, conservation laws, some QM, thermo, and you're there.

 

[Mk]

Do the math.

Learn the physics.

Greenhousers depend upon insufficient data, I do NOT.

Bystander, I know it is too much to say, but you could have been nicer.

The meteorological record contains station measurements from thermometers accurate to plus or minus 1 K (2 F); these thermometers are placed in "standard" instrument shelters which are recognizable by any chemical engineer as very inefficient heat exchangers (collected radiant energy is transferred to air moving through the enclosures); the dependence of measured temperature on wind speed is NOT accounted for in the record, is 0.3 K to 1 K above true air temperature at 1 m/s, rises as a function of shelter and thermometer emissivities at lower velocities, and drops off at higher velocities. Wind "shadows" around weather stations have increased over the past century with increased population and the associated building and development activities. The global mean temperature is constructed from a "selection" of station records that swaps stations in and out of the average with fewer constraints than the DJIA applies to swapping index stocks --- "bad juju" for any statistician.

Wow.

 

[Bystander]

Bystander, I know it is too much to say, but you could have been nicer. (snip)

"Nicer" is reserved for people who conduct themselves to deserve "nicer." "Subtle" hints to those who feel that AGHGW is a problem and who have degrees, training, or other background in the physical sciences that they apply the degrees, training, and background to the problem don't seem to have had any effect the previous hundred or so times the topic has come up on the forums --- the "blunt object applied to the side of the head" becomes necessary. Lousy science with a polysyllabic name (climatology) is still lousy science when it ignores long established measurement methods and physical principles; people with degrees in physical sciences who cannot recognize lousy science need to "resign" their degrees and take up door-to-door canvassing for the democrats.

--- and, yes, I realize, Mk, that it's not you who asked for less than "nicer" response.

 

[Pythagorean]

You got a physics degree? You are a climatologist; mass, length, time, temperature, amount of substance, current, luminous intensity, little Newtonian physics, conservation laws, some QM, thermo, and you're there.

I'm on my third year towards a physics degree. My biggest issue with the global warming issue is conceptualizing the math that describes what people are describing in words. I've looked over Mann's article. I see what looks like a probability distribution function, but still, I don't understandand it enought o judge whether it works.

If you're ignorant of the way the Earth systems work (just by not studying them) you could be ignoring important factors. Seriously, I don't even know how the climatologists can come up with a prediction without having sensors placed every cubed meter all around the world, taking data in sync.

How can you measure something that could be all over the world in different densities? How do you know you're not missing a huge chunk that's unusually concentrated somewhere? How do you know there's not a system of Earth that condensates and hides greenhouse gasses but then later releases them? The data still seems blind to me

Unfortunately, it's become a big political event too, which plunges even more blatant assertions (propaganda) into the situation.

the oil companies and economists clearly don't like the implications of global warming, and the alarmists don't want to lose their research, their prestige, or their name (or, ultimately, their funding).

Who do you trust? Someone said theirselves earlier, but you'd be a fool to think you're the only one clean of idealism. You could as easly fall into a subvonscious vacuum of decision while looking over the data, yourself. We need consensus from thorough thinkers, not good arguments from people who are in still in high school debate class.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Global Warming
Frequently Asked Questions

...Can the observed changes be explained by natural variability, including changes in solar output?


...Over several centuries, it may be possible to observe the effect of these orbital parameters, however for the prediction of climate change in the 21st century, these changes will be far less important than radiative forcing from greenhouse gases.

...The IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios determines the range of future possible greenhouse gas concentrations (and other forcings) based on considerations such as population growth, economic growth, energy efficiency and a host of other factors. This leads a wide range of possible forcing scenarios, and consequently a wide range of possible future climates. [continued]

http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/globalwarming.html#Q10

Take it from the experts or choose to use do-it-yourself science.

 

[jimmie]

I don't see any input regarding the data from Dr. Corell and his study.

Dr. Corell says his data of global warming is unassailable, and I believe him.

Would anyone like to debunk Dr. Corell's data?