Is there life in the universe, and if so has it visited Earth?

[Schrodinger's Dog]

The way I see it is that life in other planetary systems, and life in the galaxy in general, is so vastly far away from each other that by the time an intelligent life form has picked up our signals, and by the time their reply has reached us here on earth, we would have became extinct. I do hold hopes that we make contact with life forms that have already sent signals, but I wouldn't bet on it.

True but isn't that given that we can never overcome the vastness of space. I personally would be wary of the claim of never or that by the time it happened we would be extinct; we do have a few billion years to play with, despite the useless politics of the 20th century; it's possible we won't wipe ourselves out quite so soon. :/

 

[Snazzy]

That's the thing, though; I don't hold the optimistic viewpoint that we can live up to the point in the far future where our planet is enveloped by fire and brimstone (not sure how that is an optimistic perspective). In order to do that, we have to protect ourselves from ourselves. I'm not trying to be misanthropic here, but in the case that humans don't blow themselves apart, or die in hoards due to some disease, or succumb to climate change within the next century or so, I do believe we can only survive for a few hundred million years, or possibly less, before Earth becomes inhospitable due to the sun's changing nature.

 

[Schrodinger's Dog]

That's the thing, though; I don't hold the optimistic viewpoint that we can live up to the point in the far future where our planet is enveloped by fire and brimstone (not sure how that is an optimistic perspective). In order to do that, we have to protect ourselves from ourselves. I'm not trying to be misanthropic here, but in the case that humans don't blow themselves apart, or die in hoards due to some disease, or succumb to climate change within the next century or so, I do believe we can only survive for a few hundred million years, or possibly less, before Earth becomes inhospitable due to the sun's changing nature.

Why is the sun going to make Earth inhospitable to life, doesn't seem to have much of a track record lately as such, if you see what I mean. Of course there have been extinction events but there's no reason to suspect we are headed towards one atm, not a total extinction event anyway? Much more likely that we will destroy ourselves given the suns history surely?

 

[Snazzy]

Well, in about 500 million years time, some NASA sources say the sun will become about 10% more luminous, which means a lot higher surface temperatures, more vapour in the atmosphere, and a runaway greenhouse effect.

 

[Schrodinger's Dog]

Well, in about 500 million years time, some NASA sources say the sun will become about 10% more luminous, which means a lot higher surface temperatures, more vapour in the atmosphere, and a runaway greenhouse effect.

Have you got a link for that. And since we've been here \simeq 200,000 years that is a long time anyway.

 

[Snazzy]

http://image.gsfc.nasa.gov/poetry/ask/a10474.html
http://www.astronomycafe.net/qadir/q79.html
http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/solarsystem/death_of_earth_000224.html

I completely agree with you that even 100,000 years is a long time for humans (let alone a few hundred million years) considering that we transitioned from hunter-gatherer societies just 10-20 thousand years ago, however I still believe that we are at the peak of our existence right now.

 

[Schrodinger's Dog]

http://image.gsfc.nasa.gov/poetry/ask/a10474.html
http://www.astronomycafe.net/qadir/q79.html
http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/solarsystem/death_of_earth_000224.html

I completely agree with you that even 100,000 years is a long time for humans (let alone a few hundred million years) considering that we transitioned from hunter-gatherer societies just 10-20 thousand years ago, however I still believe that we are at the peak of our existence right now.

Ok I don't doubt that 10% increase in luminosity claim although of course that is a hypothesis based on hypothetical conditions, and as this is a speculatory thread I respect your opinions, even though I'm not so pessimistic to agree with them.

I don't think we'll die out if the Earth becomes 10% more luminous, 10% more luminous doesn't mean the whole planet is doomed and all it's life, it's not a 10% rise in temperature on Earth. And if we can develop technologies to mitigate an effect we already know is going to happen, then we might just make it yet.

 

[Snazzy]

Oh yes, I agree that a 10% increase in luminosity doesn't necessarily correlate to a 10% increase in average temperature as the estimates are hypothetical, but the risk is still there. But does the American government itself have the incentive or the motivation to look for life elsewhere? SETI used to be funded by the US government, but is now primarily funded by private sources. Even the TPF was not on NASA's 2007 budget and still remains without a launch date.

If we want to find life, I believe that the best place to start is on the Galilean moons.

 

[Schrodinger's Dog]

Oh yes, I agree that a 10% increase in luminosity doesn't necessarily correlate to a 10% increase in average temperature as the estimates are hypothetical, but the risk is still there. But does the American government itself have the incentive or the motivation to look for life elsewhere? SETI used to be funded by the US government, but is now primarily funded by private sources. Even the TPF was not on NASA's 2007 budget and still remains without a launch date.

If we want to find life, I believe that the best place to start is on the Galilean moons.

Well that's not quite the whole picture we are looking for life beyond SETI, and anyway SETI is still going strong. But it only tells us that in x many years since we've been monitoring certain communication methods, aliens with in x light years would be discovered. Life may be discovered through other means such as finding planets analogous to Earth and then using http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Optical_interferometry#Astronomical_Optical_Interferometry" to determine whether signs of life, such as the colour of certain elements, and more importantly the colours that denote chlorophyll exist. And let's not forget that radio communication compared to today is extremely primitive, if we consider other methods of communication we have now.

 

[CEL]

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/02/080228174823.htm

I've just completely and utterly ripped this off from the biology thread, but since it has some real relevance here, and not everyone goes there:



Anyone like to speculate on life being seeded from space, or panspermia?

Or what about the discovery of methane in another solar system?

http://www.independent.ie/world-news/methane-gas-find-raises-hopes-of-life-beyond-earth-1323470.html"

Methane is a very simple molecule. One carbon and four hydrogen atoms. It would be amazing if it was not present around other stars. It is believed that methane molecules could be at the origin of life on Earth, but it is present in other planets and moons in our solar system and no sign of life was found until now.
The importance of the discovery is that scientists were able to detect the gas in the atmosphere of an extra solar planet, not that this is a sign of possible life.

 

[Schrodinger's Dog]

Methane is a very simple molecule. One carbon and four hydrogen atoms. It would be amazing if it was not present around other stars. It is believed that methane molecules could be at the origin of life on Earth, but it is present in other planets and moons in our solar system and no sign of life was found until now.
The importance of the discovery is that scientists were able to detect the gas in the atmosphere of an extra solar planet, not that this is a sign of possible life.

Oh yeah but since extrasolar planets are limited to planets around about the size of Uranus atm at the largest, it's about as good as it gets, until more powerful interferometry arrays are started up. It's I suppose a tantalising start.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Seeds of Life [reportedly] Found Near Saturn

http://www.livescience.com/space/scienceastronomy/080326-cassini-flyby-update.html

Note of caution: I assume that this will be published but I don't see that it has been yet.

 

[drankin]

Until we find evidence of a single alien microbe (I don't know biology), on another planet or astroid, I'm in the camp that says there is no other life out there. It seems to me that their should be, but there is absolutely no evidence. Even on planets & moons that have or had water on them.

There is life, if only single celled, on just about every extereme environment on Earth. Why isn't there the same on other planets in our solar system that have similar conditions? I suspect there is something about Earth that we have yet to discover that allows life to thrive almost uncontrollably. Now, if we can demostrate that crops can indeed grow and thrive, animals can live a normal lifespan and reproduce on another planet within a remote lab, I'll lose some of my skepticism. It seems to me that life should be teaming in the universe but as of yet, there is absolutely no evidence.

 

[Schrodinger's Dog]

Until we find evidence of a single alien microbe (I don't know biology), on another planet or astroid, I'm in the camp that says there is no other life out there. It seems to me that their should be, but there is absolutely no evidence. Even on planets & moons that have or had water on them.

There is life, if only single celled, on just about every extereme environment on Earth. Why isn't there the same on other planets in our solar system that have similar conditions? I suspect there is something about Earth that we have yet to discover that allows life to thrive almost uncontrollably. Now, if we can demostrate that crops can indeed grow and thrive, animals can live a normal lifespan and reproduce on another planet within a remote lab, I'll lose some of my skepticism. It seems to me that life should be teaming in the universe but as of yet, there is absolutely no evidence.

So no evidence equals evidence that it does not exist? That doesn't seem very scientific...

I think given the expanse of the Universe most scientists believe that although there is no evidence (because of the expanse of the Universe) actually saying there isn't is a leap too far. I mean do you actually know how many galaxies there are? And how many stars in each one there are. Now no problem with you saying you don't recognise life as having a possibility until you see proof, but isn't that equivalent to "atheism"? Isn't agnosticism more rational than "atheism" or "theism"? Than saying until they do, I am an atheist? Ie we cannot know as yet given the evidence available. Let's face it the evidence is accumulating.

And I disagree with that the probabilities are just so unquantifiable that life existing only here seems unlikely to say the least. I might be wrong, but atheism just seems all wrong. A healthy until I see proof I will believe the chances are good, or until I see proof the chances are slim or anywhere in between seems more rational, is better than no chance matey until I see proof. There should be? Is that it? Given there should be it doesn't lead to until I see evidence there is not? That's not logical unless you are religious about the Universe, in of course my humble opinion.

No planet in our system has anything like the conditions Earth had, and we cannot detect Earth like planets atm. But the fact that many Solar systems have planets, tends to suggest that many systems might also have Earth like planets given the numbers involved, and the numbers are so huge you can't actually conceive of them.

Now don't get me wrong I don't think life is all over the place, its no doubt quite sparse, but its sparsity is probably the reason we have no direct evidence, rather than the fact that we don't equals it does not exist.

 

[cristo]

I can't remember whether I've posted in this thread or not. Anyway, in my opinion the probability of life elsewhere in the universe is very close to 1, if not 1. Even if we are the only life in our own galaxy, then there are billions of other galaxies out there. I don't see how life can be so rare so as to only flourish in 1 out of many many many planetary systems.

 

[drankin]

So no evidence equals evidence that it does not exist? That doesn't seem very scientific...

I think given the expanse of the Universe most scientists believe that although there is no evidence (because of the expanse of the Universe) actually saying there isn't is a leap too far. I mean do you actually know how many galaxies there are? And how many stars in each one there are. Now no problem with you saying you don't recognise life as having a possibility until you see proof, but isn't that equivalent to "atheism"? Isn't agnosticism more rational than "atheism" or "theism"? Than saying until they do, I am an atheist? Ie we cannot know as yet given the evidence available. Let's face it the evidence is accumulating.

And I disagree with that the probabilities are just so unquantifiable that life existing only here seems unlikely to say the least. I might be wrong, but atheism just seems all wrong. A healthy until I see proof I will believe the chances are good, or until I see proof the chances are slim or anywhere in between seems more rational, is better than no chance matey until I see proof. There should be? Is that it? Given there should be it doesn't lead to until I see evidence there is not? That's not logical unless you are religious about the Universe, in of course my humble opinion.

No planet in our system has anything like the conditions Earth had, and we cannot detect Earth like planets atm. But the fact that many Solar systems have planets, tends to suggest that many systems might also have Earth like planets given the numbers involved, and the numbers are so huge you can't actually conceive of them.

Now don't get me wrong I don't think life is all over the place, its no doubt quite sparse, but its sparsity is probably the reason we have no direct evidence, rather than the fact that we don't equals it does not exist.

SD, I'm not a scientist so I might need a little more evidence to be persuaded. Life outside Earth certainly seems possible, mathmatically plausible, but at this point in human existence it isn't a fact.

Earth is the only planet in our solar system that has an oxygen rich atmosphere. Most life here requires it. Is oxygen a requirement for life to exist on other planets though? Or does life simply adapt to it's environment and utilize the elements that exist to survive? Thinking about it gets my mind off on tangents, why does life bother to exist? What drives it and to what end? If we had reasons for these questions then I could see it developing elsewhere a bit easier to swallow. I guess I need to understand why it is here before I'll accept it would be anywhere else. It would cool if there was at least a hint that it took somewhere else in the solar system, but as of yet, we have nothing to go on.

No matter, life "is" here on Earth for some reason or result.

 

[Schrodinger's Dog]

SD, I'm not a scientist so I might need a little more evidence to be persuaded. Life outside Earth certainly seems possible, mathmatically plausible, but at this point in human existence it isn't a fact.

Earth is the only planet in our solar system that has an oxygen rich atmosphere. Most life here requires it. Is oxygen a requirement for life to exist on other planets though? Or does life simply adapt to it's environment and utilize the elements that exist to survive? Thinking about it gets my mind off on tangents, why does life bother to exist? What drives it and to what end? If we had reasons for these questions then I could see it developing elsewhere a bit easier to swallow. I guess I need to understand why it is here before I'll accept it would be anywhere else. It would cool if there was at least a hint that it took somewhere else in the solar system, but as of yet, we have nothing to go on.

No matter, life "is" here on Earth for some reason or result.

Indeed there are http://www.springerlink.com/content/l0362x108x558g62/" on this planet that don't require oxygen at all, and it seems likely that they may have existed since the formation of the earliest life forms. So I'd say it's definitely needed as a chemical oxidising agent, but it isn't essential.

The good thing about life though, is that except in our case it tends to produce an environment that leads to more life or the optimal amount of life given the conditions. So given some or a little oxygen you end up with just the right amount for life to exist. And since oxygen is fairly abundant in the remnants of stars, I don't see where there is a problem with oxygen. In fact carbon, hydrogen, nitrogen and oxygen are relatively abundant in the Universe. Throw those into the mix at the right sort of temperatures with the right sort of planet, and I'd be surprised if you didn't get life.

When your talking 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000. Stars in the universe, it actually becomes rather far fetched to assume there isn't life elsewhere.

I doubt personally life has visited Earth except in the obvious sense, and certainly not intelligent life, which doesn't seem to exist here. But I do find the idea that life and even intelligent life does not exist somewhere else to be a rather remote possibility, if not impossible then vanishingly small. Even given the most conservative values for the http://www.markelowitz.com/drakeeqn.htm" , at least one life form per galaxy is likely, and as its recently been revealed, planets are far more common than previously thought around stars, so the estimate I gave of about 100 communicative intelligent life forms per galaxy seems a good conservative guess. It would also explain why we haven't made contact with any of them yet, given the size of the galaxy that would make intelligent life quite a rarity and the likely distances between them enormous.

Why does life bother to exist? Why does it have to have a reason? I leave such speculation in the hands of those who like ontological arguments. It could just be that life exists because given the initial conditions, it's likely too, and that is that.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Could life exist beneath Enceladus? A recent flyby of Saturn's icy moon has bolstered this fascinating idea. Two years ago, images from the robotic Cassini spacecraft orbiting Saturn led astronomers to the undeniable conclusion that Saturn's moon Enceladus was spewing fountains of gas and ice crystals through cracks in its surface dubbed tiger stripes. Last month, Cassini dove through some of these plumes and determined that they contained water vapor laced with small amounts of methane as well as simple and complex organic molecules. Surprisingly, the plumes of Enceladus appear similar in make-up to many comets. What's more, the temperature and density of the plumes indicate they might have originated from a warmer source -- possibly a liquid source -- beneath the surface. A liquid water sea containing organic molecules is a good place to look for life. Pictured above is a vertically exaggerated close-up of some long, venting tiger stripes. The computer composite was generated from images and shadows taken during the recent Cassini flyby. Nine more flybys of Enceladus by Cassini are planned. [see NASA photo]

http://apod.nasa.gov/apod/ap080331.html

 

[CEL]

Indeed there are http://www.springerlink.com/content/l0362x108x558g62/" on this planet that don't require oxygen at all, and it seems likely that they may have existed since the formation of the earliest life forms. So I'd say it's definitely needed as a chemical oxidising agent, but it isn't essential.

...

A nitpick. Life does not need oxidation. Anaerobic bacteria use fermentation instead. Since fermentation is less efficient than oxidation, it is useful only for very simple life forms. So, if we are looking for intelligent life we must certainly look for free oxygen.

 

[Schrodinger's Dog]

A nitpick. Life does not need oxidation. Anaerobic bacteria use fermentation instead. Since fermentation is less efficient than oxidation, it is useful only for very simple life forms. So, if we are looking for intelligent life we must certainly look for free oxygen.

Assumes that complex life couldn't evolve without oxygen. I tend to agree but I'm not brave enough to stake anything on it. It's a good nitpick though.

 

[pinestone]

Just because the chances are great that other life forms could exist, until an alien life form is observed, documented and verified- it remains speculation.

 

[Schrodinger's Dog]

Just because the chances are great that other life forms could exist, until an alien life form is observed, documented and verified- it remains speculation.

Indeed that's a given, we're not talking about a religion here.

 

[pinestone]

Indeed that's a given, we're not talking about a religion here.

Isn't science using the scientific method anymore?
Has logic replaced truth?

 

[Schrodinger's Dog]

Isn't science using the scientific method anymore?
Has logic replaced truth?

No. I don't see why you would need to ask that question, unless it was directed at those dreamers known as string theorists, then it'd be a valid question.

Let me rephrase it:as I said in the OP this is a speculatory thread; the fact that alien life existing has to have the same rigour as any other scientific theory to be declared evidence based is a given. However it does not stop us from speculating on what ifs at least in keeping with hypothesis about what x means. That's also quite scientific, provided we don't start claiming we have a theory like ahem... Some people do.

This is Sparta not a religious discussion group pondering the ineffable magnificence of the ubiquitous FSM.

 

[CEL]

Assumes that complex life couldn't evolve without oxygen. I tend to agree but I'm not brave enough to stake anything on it. It's a good nitpick though.

Well, complex life needs a lot of energy and intelligent life, still more. Our brain consumes more energy per unit mass than any other organ.
There are several chemical reactions that deliver energy, like fermentation that I mentioned, but the most efficient is oxidation. You don't need oxygen to obtain oxidation. Chlorine is a good oxidizer too, but since chlorine is much less abundant then oxygen in the universe, I would say that a chlorine breathing species is very unlikely.

 

[Schrodinger's Dog]

Well, complex life needs a lot of energy and intelligent life, still more. Our brain consumes more energy per unit mass than any other organ.
There are several chemical reactions that deliver energy, like fermentation that I mentioned, but the most efficient is oxidation. You don't need oxygen to obtain oxidation. Chlorine is a good oxidizer too, but since chlorine is much less abundant then oxygen in the universe, I would say that a chlorine breathing species is very unlikely.

I would have to agree. With the caveat never say never. You might make the assumption that the world in question was within the range of -50c to +50c if it was much hotter then it's possible that other life forms could be favoured over oxygen if oxygen was short for some reason. I'd say it's unlikely intelligent life would develop from something that does not need oxygen. But given the numbers involved not impossible.

 

[CEL]

I would have to agree. With the caveat never say never. You might make the assumption that the world in question was within the range of -50c to +50c if it was much hotter then it's possible that other life forms could be favoured over oxygen if oxygen was short for some reason. I'd say it's unlikely intelligent life would develop from something that does not need oxygen. But given the numbers involved not impossible.

I agree with you. Unlikely does not mean impossible. In the same way I agree with you that the vastness of the Universe or even of our galaxy gives a probability very near to one, but not certainty, that life exists outside Earth.
It is very difficult to estimate the probability of intelligent life. It is true that intelligence gave man an advantage, but while homo sapiens is here for some tens of thousand years, sharks and turtles have changed very little in the last 300 million years. For them, intelligence is unnecessary.
Intelligence does not necessarily mean technological civilization, necessary to communication with other intelligent species. Technology has existed for two or three centuries and capability of communication out planet for only a century.
Technology has a drawback: it brings the possibility of self destruction. In the sixties we were very close to it. Even now, when a large scale nuclear war seems unlikely, environment pollution risks our future. Would an alien technological civilization be wiser then ours?
If we don't destroy our civilization, I believe that we will be able in the next 200 years to colonize Earth like planets in nearby stars. In a billion years we would spread through the Galaxy.
The fact that, apart witnessing, we have no evidence of alien visitors, suggests that, if they exist, extraterrestrial civilizations must be recent. For a 14 billion year old universe, this seems to indicate the transitoriness of technological civilizations.

 

[Schrodinger's Dog]

There should of course be added to the drake equation a sub equation that determines the probability that mankind or whatever is moronic enough to annihilate itself because two governments are acting like children and getting all in a tiz about nothing.

Call it P_m(%)

The probability that someone in power will be mad or stupid or moronic enough to wipe their whole species out over who's got the biggest tadger.

I disagree with your theory that it indicates anything, I think it could just as easily indicate we are in a supremely isolated part of the galaxy, than anything. I think that's a bit of a speculation. It could also indicate that greater than c travel is never achievable by anyone ever. I could even indicate we are alone in the universe. All equally valid conclusions, if somewhat logically invalid.

 

[CEL]

There should of course be added to the drake equation a sub equation that determines the probability that mankind or whatever is moronic enough to annihilate itself because two governments are acting like children and getting all in a tiz about nothing.

Call it P_m(%)

The probability that someone in power will be mad or stupid or moronic enough to wipe their whole species out over who's got the biggest tadger.

There is:
The equation as stated by Drake is written as follows:
N = R* fp ne fl fi fc L
where: R* = The number of stars in the Milky Way Galaxy.
fp = The fraction of these stars with planets.
ne = The fraction of these planets suitable for life.
fl = The fraction of suitable planets which develop life.
fi = The fraction of life-bearing planets developing intelligence.
fc = The fraction of intelligently-inhabited planets who have formed civilization and harnessed radio or other means to communicate.
L = The lifetime of such a communicative civilization in a ratio to the age of its star.

The factor L indicates that possibility. For Earth until now L = \frac{100}{4.5*10^9}=2.2*10^{-8}.

I disagree with your theory that it indicates anything, I think it could just as easily indicate we are in a supremely isolated part of the galaxy, than anything. I think that's a bit of a speculation. It could also indicate that greater than c travel is never achievable by anyone ever. I could even indicate we are alone in the universe. All equally valid conclusions, if somewhat logically invalid.

I used 1 billion years for the spread of our civilization assuming the impossibility of FTL travel. If it was possible we could spread in a few thousand years after its discovery.
The universe is around 14 billion years old. Even accepting that first or even second generation stars could not have rocky planets, third generation stars must exist for at least some 12 billion years, so life could have started some 8 billion years before it happened on Earth. If intelligent life and technological civilization are inevitable, the last one should be short living, or else we would have had contact with it, even being in an isolated corner of the Galaxy.

 

[pinestone]

Let me rephrase it:as I said in the OP this is a speculatory thread; ... However it does not stop us from speculating on what ifs at least in keeping with hypothesis about what x means...

I based my response upon the survey at the beginning of your thread. Sorry, I didn't realize we were being speculative.

That's also quite scientific, provided we don't start claiming we have a theory like ahem... Some people do...

Isn't the scientific method all about experimental proof? Otherwise, it remains conjecture.
If you are referring to any claims that I have made either in the past or present, remember mine are based on a repeatable, verifiable experiment, and not on theory alone.