Schrodinger's Dog
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pinestone said:I based my response upon the survey at the beginning of your thread. Sorry, I didn't realize we were being speculative.
Ah should of read on, a lot of people made that assumption for some odd reason. They thought I was trying to propose the Drake equation as scientific.
Isn't the scientific method all about experimental proof? Otherwise, it remains conjecture.
If you are referring to any claims that I have made either in the past or present, remember mine are based on a repeatable, verifiable experiment, and not on theory alone.
Of course but this is scepticism and debunking not the astrophysics or cosmology section. Which means within reason speculation is allowed without scientific method, all we're talking about here is the possibility of life existing, not the certainty, I see no problem with that, provided we don't start making assumptions. Which incidentally I'm afraid is what CEL is doing, thus I can't agree with what he is saying without saying but what if... For all we know the universe is only 5 billion years old. For all we know our galaxy is only 4 billion years old. I don't think you can make the sort of assumptions he is without speculating completely. Therefore although I agree with him in principle, I keep saying only if. Because oddly and ironically a hypothesis in this area begs more questions than a theory. And the answers are a bit well let's say grey to say the least. I wouldn't presume to know what conditions are like, whether we are alone in the the 90 or so light year area since we started broadcasting radio waves into space. I wouldn't presume to make a speculation saying that life is sparse. Or that technological systems will often wipe themselves out and are short lived. Although I'd certainly respect someones opinions. As this isn't a thread about scientifically valid theories, more scientifically valid hypothesis.
I think the point is, there could be literally hundreds of thousands of civilisations in the Milky Way that are well aware of us, but like in Star Trek they are awaiting the moment we are ready to be contacted, or like in Hitch Hikers Guide to the Galaxy we are mostly harmless and of little consideration. Thus I say given your tenets I agree, I just don't necessarily agree with your tenets at least not within any certainty.
And what I mean CEL is before you apply the drake equation you apply the moron factor sub equation to the lifespan of intelligent life's civilisation. So as to adjust for crazy loons before you start.
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