Is Venus the key to economic success in our solar system?

[GTOM]

I am writing a space opera, that is meant to be hard, except some alien magic.

So far, i have the following points : asteroid belt is the most valuable for rare material mining, there they live in O Neil cylinders. Travel is done by fusion ships, that can maintain miliG-s of constant acceleration, Earth to Mars can be done in a month. Mercury is also pretty valuable, there is a single underground city under the north pole ice caps. Mars don't have so great economic value, however, there are many people, who wanted to escape from Earth, that is dominated by robots and virtual reality and corruption.

Mercury announced its independence from Earth, mining corporations of the belt became warlords, they still pay taxes to Earth, but their groving power makes the government really worried.

I wonder, whether i missed something. For example Venus, would it make much sense to build cloud cities there in this context? Could it be valuable for Mercury, that face isolation?
Would it be a priority to mine gas giants? i think no, so it is quite possible to extract deuterium from other sources.

 

[some bloke]

I'm not sure if Mercury (the planet) has ice caps, I'm pretty sure it's way too hot for that!

Venus is very hot and very hostile, with clouds of acid and volcanic activity everywhere, which makes it somewhat high risk for any colonization and mining, especially as Mars can be gotten to in a month, so one of Jupiter's moons could be a good option for a colony.

A quick research tells me Jupiter is mostly Hydrogen and Helium, which I would assume to be the most likely fuels for your Fusion drive, as these re the main ones used in the Sun (IIRC). You could potentially have mines on Jupiter which would trade with the rest of the solar system. It could also be the space-port out of the solar system, slingshotting craft off Jupiter, then the Sun, then out to space.

One thing that often niggles me in scifi is when they give an exact time for traveling between planets - as if the planets are always the same distance away. I've never read or watched anything where someone says "I need to get to mars" and they reply "you're in for a wait, it won't be this side of the sun for another 4 months!".

Consider the fact that you would have to get through the asteroid belt to get to Mars if it wasn't in line with earth, or go around the Earth's orbit until you lined up - significantly further than just traveling when the two are closest!

 

[member 656954]

One thing that often niggles me in scifi is when they give an exact time for traveling between planets - as if the planets are always the same distance away. I've never read or watched anything where someone says "I need to get to mars" and they reply "you're in for a wait, it won't be this side of the sun for another 4 months!".

It's a touch off topic to @GTOM's OP, but yes, that niggles me too so when I was writing Tyranny - which has solar system travel - I had to invest in AstroGrav to work out where everything was at that date and then calculate travel times based on where things would be at the end date. Talk about tedious! I can see why authors often don't bother, calculations like that add a lot of time to your writing.

Now, to @GTOM's question. Some things you might like to consider:

Outpost Purpose - Who established the base (country, corporate, military, private, etc.) and why. That influences the economics of each outpost and places constraints on size and interaction. What form of government is in place at each outpost. What local and system-wide tensions does that cause. Why is Mercury valuable. It's a rocky planet near the Sun, what's there to drive sufficient wealth to warrant the travel to and fro.

Population Growth at each Outpost - When did people arrive, how many arrived, what's a reasonable birthrate, what's the population now (which means when your story is set), what type of economic activity does that population support.

Resource Flow - Are outposts self-sufficient. If not, who supports them. How do the outposts pay for resources. Is there a solar system currency or do outposts have their own currency. How does currency exchange work in that case.

Raw Materials - How are things mined. Mostly robotic or manual labor. Do you have nanotech. Are the fusion ships mostly robotic or manned. How much can be moved in a single ship. How much demand is there for each type of raw material. How many ships are therefore needed. Is that number reasonable given populations of outposts.

Alien Magic - Is this relics found or active, on going engagement? If found during the story, what economics aspects does it upset. If on-going engagement...I don't know, actually, that opens up a gazillion plot options

I love reading well thought out stories of this kind, so good luck with the concept, @GTOM, I'm sure you'll have fun with the writing.

 

[GTOM]

I'm not sure if Mercury (the planet) has ice caps, I'm pretty sure it's way too hot for that!

Venus is very hot and very hostile, with clouds of acid and volcanic activity everywhere, which makes it somewhat high risk for any colonization and mining, especially as Mars can be gotten to in a month, so one of Jupiter's moons could be a good option for a colony.

A quick research tells me Jupiter is mostly Hydrogen and Helium, which I would assume to be the most likely fuels for your Fusion drive, as these re the main ones used in the Sun (IIRC). You could potentially have mines on Jupiter which would trade with the rest of the solar system. It could also be the space-port out of the solar system, slingshotting craft off Jupiter, then the Sun, then out to space.

One thing that often niggles me in scifi is when they give an exact time for traveling between planets - as if the planets are always the same distance away. I've never read or watched anything where someone says "I need to get to mars" and they reply "you're in for a wait, it won't be this side of the sun for another 4 months!".

Consider the fact that you would have to get through the asteroid belt to get to Mars if it wasn't in line with earth, or go around the Earth's orbit until you lined up - significantly further than just traveling when the two are closest!

Usually they travel to somewhere, when the distance is the smallest. I ll mention things like Mars rebel when the Sun is between it and Earth.

Mercury has ice caps.
https://www.universetoday.com/137252/surface-ice-mercury-previously-thought-says-new-study/
I think the lots of metal made it valuable.

I wonder whether the gases make somehow Venus valuable? Theoretically it is possible to convert Co2 into very strong materials (nanotubes) but i have serious doubts it is viable when one can simply mine every kind of metal.

Earth is full of robots, virtual reality stuff, it needs lots of rare materials.
Virtual reality is necessary on most colonies too, it isn't too bright to live in a tin can, or in a cavern. Mars is a bit more comfortable with domed cities and large underground areas.

No travel outside the Solar system in my story. Well my starting assumption is that even an outer planet like Saturn is too far for colonization. Although some think Titan can be a really good place due to thick air. Maybe it would be better to dig up the alien wrecks at Pluto?

 

[Drakkith]

I wonder whether the gases make somehow Venus valuable? Theoretically it is possible to convert Co2 into very strong materials (nanotubes) but i have serious doubts it is viable when one can simply mine every kind of metal.

In my opinion carbon nanotubes, and, theoretically, other similar materials composed of carbon, will always remain competitive vs metals, since they have unique properties and uses that can't be replicated by metals and their alloys.

Well my starting assumption is that even an outer planet like Saturn is too far for colonization. Although some think Titan can be a really good place due to thick air. Maybe it would be better to dig up the alien wrecks at Pluto?

Here's a tidbit I just found out. At an atmospheric pressure of 1 bar (approximately the air pressure here on Earth near sea level) Saturn's surface gravity is only 1.065 g. You could build floating cloud cities and walk around in very comfortable gravity on Saturn without having to worry about crushing pressures or the dangers of near-vacuums. Jupiter's surface gravity at 1 bar is 2.53 g unfortunately, and I don't know if the gravity ever gets low enough prior to exiting the atmosphere. So cloud cities are probably a no-go on Jupiter.

A few things to note about travel between points in the solar system (a mix of facts and personal opinions about things in the future):

1. Mercury is by far the hardest planet to reach in terms of delta-v. It's easier to go from Earth to Pluto (in terms of the amount of fuel needed) than to go to Mercury. In fact, it actually requires less fuel to go out to Pluto first before going to Mercury, though the trip takes much, MUCH longer. The only way materials or commodities originating from Mercury would be competitive in a solar-system-spanning economy would be if transportation costs were extremely small compared to the price of producing/mining those same goods and materials elsewhere.

2. All travel, except between a planet and its local moons, will take weeks to months at best, and years once you start getting to the outer solar system. Don't discount the cost of time when thinking about economics. That big load of precious metals can sit in a cargo hold for years without a problem, but something like food cannot. At least not unless it is specifically designed to last that long. So you probably aren't going to be getting fresh or frozen vegetables out to some mining colony in the asteroid belt. So your colony is either going to be eating re-hydrated something-or-another a lot, or its going to be growing much of its own food. Of course, don't let this detract from your story. Maybe these futuristic food packets are actually well made and delicious.

3.Travel time can be drastically reduced if you're willing to spend more on fuel. That multi-year trip to Saturn can be cut down to just a few months if you're willing and able to expend 10x the normal fuel required to get there (10x isn't an exact number, it's just a general example). The richest of the rich might be able to afford to go on a trip to Mars from Earth that only takes 1 or 2 weeks.

4. Spaceships will be BIG. Seriously. Any spaceship designed to transfer bulk material, like all that precious metal mined from the asteroids, is going to be staggeringly large. Just look at the cargo ships here on Earth. They are HUGE! And spaceships don't have to be built to withstand gravity or fit into ports, so they can be even more massive! The Saturn-V is the largest and most powerful launch vehicle ever brought to operational status. It has a fueled mass of about 3,000 tons. That's barely larger than a Fletcher-class destroyer from the WW2 era, and destroyers are some of the the smallest warships. A large cargo ship or tanker, when fully loaded, can displace 100,000-200,000 tons.

 

[GTOM]

In my opinion carbon nanotubes, and, theoretically, other similar materials composed of carbon, will always remain competitive vs metals, since they have unique properties and uses that can't be replicated by metals and their alloys.
Here's a tidbit I just found out. At an atmospheric pressure of 1 bar (approximately the air pressure here on Earth near sea level) Saturn's surface gravity is only 1.065 g. You could build floating cloud cities and walk around in very comfortable gravity on Saturn without having to worry about crushing pressures or the dangers of near-vacuums. Jupiter's surface gravity at 1 bar is 2.53 g unfortunately, and I don't know if the gravity ever gets low enough prior to exiting the atmosphere. So cloud cities are probably a no-go on Jupiter.

A few things to note about travel between points in the solar system (a mix of facts and personal opinions about things in the future):

1. Mercury is by far the hardest planet to reach in terms of delta-v. It's easier to go from Earth to Pluto (in terms of the amount of fuel needed) than to go to Mercury. In fact, it actually requires less fuel to go out to Pluto first before going to Mercury, though the trip takes much, MUCH longer. The only way materials or commodities originating from Mercury would be competitive in a solar-system-spanning economy would be if transportation costs were extremely small compared to the price of producing/mining those same goods and materials elsewhere.

2. All travel, except between a planet and its local moons, will take weeks to months at best, and years once you start getting to the outer solar system. Don't discount the cost of time when thinking about economics. That big load of precious metals can sit in a cargo hold for years without a problem, but something like food cannot. At least not unless it is specifically designed to last that long. So you probably aren't going to be getting fresh or frozen vegetables out to some mining colony in the asteroid belt. So your colony is either going to be eating re-hydrated something-or-another a lot, or its going to be growing much of its own food. Of course, don't let this detract from your story. Maybe these futuristic food packets are actually well made and delicious.

3.Travel time can be drastically reduced if you're willing to spend more on fuel. That multi-year trip to Saturn can be cut down to just a few months if you're willing and able to expend 10x the normal fuel required to get there (10x isn't an exact number, it's just a general example). The richest of the rich might be able to afford to go on a trip to Mars from Earth that only takes 1 or 2 weeks.

4. Spaceships will be BIG. Seriously. Any spaceship designed to transfer bulk material, like all that precious metal mined from the asteroids, is going to be staggeringly large. Just look at the cargo ships here on Earth. They are HUGE! And spaceships don't have to be built to withstand gravity or fit into ports, so they can be even more massive! The Saturn-V is the largest and most powerful launch vehicle ever brought to operational status. It has a fueled mass of about 3,000 tons. That's barely larger than a Fletcher-class destroyer from the WW2 era, and destroyers are some of the the smallest warships. A large cargo ship or tanker, when fully loaded, can displace 100,000-200,000 tons.

Ok, carbon nanotubes are very valuable, but i doubt, that the need for them alone justify Venus gas mining.

Travel time is limited by sustainable acceleration, which is a few miliGs. Travel time is at least as important as amount of fuel i think. Well, the founders of Mercury colony were the first ones who wanted to found their own kingdom independent from Earth, maybe they weren't really bothered about fuel and trade costs.
I thought that an underground city there can be a good idea, after i read about the ice caps.

Yes i think about huge cargo ships, enough for hide warships in them. Mostly they transport metal, or people from Earth to Mars. It is possible to hibernate people.

 

[member 656954]

1. Mercury is by far the hardest planet to reach in terms of delta-v. It's easier to go from Earth to Pluto (in terms of the amount of fuel needed) than to go to Mercury. In fact, it actually requires less fuel to go out to Pluto first before going to Mercury, though the trip takes much, MUCH longer. The only way materials or commodities originating from Mercury would be competitive in a solar-system-spanning economy would be if transportation costs were extremely small compared to the price of producing/mining those same goods and materials elsewhere.

That is a great point. Some stories use solar powered linear accelerators to project raw and processed materials from Mercury to keep costs down.

But this is always the primary point for me:

Of course, don't let this detract from your story.

Absolutely, teriffic advice, tell a story first, plug in the details second

 

[stefan r]

I'll try the case for Venus.

First off the cloud cities are fantastic living environments. Breathable air at comfortable temperature is a lifting gas. You could go with half pressure if you want Earth normal temperatures outside. Carbon fiber construction, especially graphene is frequently predicted for the future on Earth and in other places. Venus has among the safest most cushioned existences.

A key question is humanities ability to breed in space. Even if pregnancy could happen you still get high doses of radiation. Then questions about early childhood in low or strange gravities. We could build massive space habitats with full gravity and thick shields. Venus also has the meteor shield. Venus is just a sensible place to put resorts for child production.

The economy may be more about information flow than material goods. A lot of adult content could be produced in the cloud cities. It is reasonable to have more mass flowing down than up and still have a healthy economy.

Regardless of what sort of NSFW activity is going on in the clouds there will be abundant flybys. Venus has a nice gravity well for gravity assist maneuver but also has the best possible atmosphere for aerobreaking. Ships moving between Mercury and the outer systems will gain large changes in delta-v by flying by Venus. This makes delivery of packages to Venus inexpensive. The delivery just needs to be packaged with a re-entry shield and parachute.

Nitrogen and carbon are valuable commodities on Mercury and there is an abundance on Venus.

 

[stefan r]

In my opinion carbon nanotubes, and, theoretically, other similar materials composed of carbon, will always remain competitive vs metals, since they have unique properties and uses that can't be replicated by metals and their alloys.

1. Mercury is by far the hardest planet to reach in terms of delta-v. It's easier to go from Earth to Pluto (in terms of the amount of fuel needed) than to go to Mercury. In fact, it actually requires less fuel to go out to Pluto first before going to Mercury, though the trip takes much, MUCH longer. The only way materials or commodities originating from Mercury would be competitive in a solar-system-spanning economy would be if transportation costs were extremely small compared to the price of producing/mining those same goods and materials elsewhere.

You are assuming the delta-v from Hommen transfer orbits to Mercury. We can collect carbon from a Jupiter trojan, moons, or perhaps Kuiper belt. The guidance ship tugs the load past Jupiter for gravity assist so we can adjust to falling straight into the inner system. The tug boat guides the load with a few thin strings on approach to Mercury. Would be able to do a little aiming but mostly keep the graphite cylinder/pipe straight. The ship would not slow down just maintain velocity and head back to the outer system. The cylinder will cut a deep ring in the wall of a mountain. If will become a carbon plasma briefly. That will quickly interact with the rocks it buried itself in. If a good wall was selected most of the bounce back will stay in canyon or crater. A cylinder 1 cm thick with 10m radius and 10 km length would drive most of the plasma carbon deep into the rock. If would not bounce back to orbit. There might be better methods of litho-breaking.

Material can be launched from Mercury on the maglev mass driver. From there use solar sails. Bulk sheet metal is not a great solar sail. It does move though. The product would get places eventually, We can also use the Oberth effect passing the Sun. Solar escape velocity is nearly 600 km/s so we could fly through areas of 200 or 300 km/s escape velocity. You can burn 2 km/s fuel at perihelion and come out with an extra 20 km/s.

 

[GTOM]

I'll try the case for Venus.

First off the cloud cities are fantastic living environments. Breathable air at comfortable temperature is a lifting gas. You could go with half pressure if you want Earth normal temperatures outside. Carbon fiber construction, especially graphene is frequently predicted for the future on Earth and in other places. Venus has among the safest most cushioned existences.

A key question is humanities ability to breed in space. Even if pregnancy could happen you still get high doses of radiation. Then questions about early childhood in low or strange gravities. We could build massive space habitats with full gravity and thick shields. Venus also has the meteor shield. Venus is just a sensible place to put resorts for child production.

The economy may be more about information flow than material goods. A lot of adult content could be produced in the cloud cities. It is reasonable to have more mass flowing down than up and still have a healthy economy.

Regardless of what sort of NSFW activity is going on in the clouds there will be abundant flybys. Venus has a nice gravity well for gravity assist maneuver but also has the best possible atmosphere for aerobreaking. Ships moving between Mercury and the outer systems will gain large changes in delta-v by flying by Venus. This makes delivery of packages to Venus inexpensive. The delivery just needs to be packaged with a re-entry shield and parachute.

Nitrogen and carbon are valuable commodities on Mercury and there is an abundance on Venus.

Good points, i reconsider Venus. Although i don't really see, why it is better for producing adult content than any other places?
(Khashishi gave me the idea, that since miners moved to the belt most likely have a male majority, that could be a place for sex trafficking.)

 

[stefan r]

NASA is stonewalling about sex in space. NASA employees will get fired for harassment if they talk to an astronaut about it. Supposedly it has not been tried. People in zero g tend to have puffy faces because extra blood flowing to the head. That might it harder for female anatomy to dilate. Male anatomy may have severe mechanical difficulties. There is no hard data or published details though.

There is one crowd sourced project for sending 2 porn stars into space to try it. They raised a few $million and are waiting for commercial space launch to be available to the public.

(Khashishi gave me the idea, that since miners moved to the belt most likely have a male majority, that could be a place for sex trafficking.)

A male majority is highly unlikely. So far men have more problems with space illness than women, especially with blindness.

If we are talking about swinging a pick axe into limestone inside a pit men would statistically move more material per hour. Historically women often did work in mines. Higher power in a swing won't be useful in space mining. A small person can be smart with leverage. If you did have people manipulating tools by hand you would get the most economy using light weight miners. The vast majority of work will be done by remote. A human controller would just need to be in the area because of light lag issues.

Good points, i reconsider Venus. Although i don't really see, why it is better for producing adult content than any other places?

Venus has mythological reasons for adult content. Aside from that I have had some rambling thoughts:

Venus would not need to be a better place. Any location with adequate gravity and living space could work out for adult activity. People will figure out ways to get it done. Venus (and Earth) have a harder time exporting things that have mass. Things like research are very easy to export. Miners in the belt would call Earth anytime something complicated needed to be figured out. Software and movies are ease to send anywhere. Earth will dominate population for a long time.

The filthy rich might set up habitats at Lagrange. Vast zero g manufacturing facilities can float there. Lagrange points and Luna can be easily tied into Earth's virtual economy.

Venus is a set up away from Earth. A story universe probably needs some reason motivating people to want to be away from Earth. People tend to have violence insurgencies. Building resorts off of Earth gives people a secure place to go. Where do you retire too after having built up your wealth? Do you want an ghetto apartment in a Pacific flotilla or would you prefer a 10 acre lot in a cloud city.

Venus and Earth are more centrally located for the belt than any location in the belt. There should be frequent shipments of mined materials heading that way. The time of flight is lower because the Sun's gravity works in your favor.

If you incorporate extreme life extension people may live hundreds of years. Pregnancy and childhood will be a relatively short part of that. It would still be long enough for parents to get tired of a standard tin can space habitat. You also want a large and diverse population for socializing children. The people living in space may not like what they see happening on Earth's surface. So couples (or other options?) might save up money for a few decades and then go somewhere to procreate.

Suppose a miner/astronaut is goes on 2 year missions and then takes 2 years off. She leaves her husband and children (or perhaps creche) someplace safe while on missions. The safe place does not need to have an export industry. The only thing that needs to leave the gravity well is occasional people. Most of the economy needed will be support services. Venus looks like a good option.

A large economy around construction should develop on Venus. Lots of gas separation too. Carbon makes the rafters that support human activities. Beams sit on layers of safety lift cushions. The incoming shipments would be mostly in the form of shield re-entry disks. There would be plenty of work to do. The Apollo reentry vehicles had a limited radius because it needed to leave Earth through the atmosphere. A big disk is extremely cheap and it does not matter if it heats up to a few hundred C. You may need to relaunch a stack of control drones.

I think you could do drag line mining of Venus. Especially if you have graphene. You could support the cable with lifting gas in a tube. Could dump cold lifting gas to cool the line or use CO2 coolant in an outer sheath. IMO this version with a fully independent Venus is much less fun. They still need hydrogen imports anyway.

 

[GTOM]

NASA is stonewalling about sex in space. NASA employees will get fired for harassment if they talk to an astronaut about it. Supposedly it has not been tried. People in zero g tend to have puffy faces because extra blood flowing to the head. That might it harder for female anatomy to dilate. Male anatomy may have severe mechanical difficulties. There is no hard data or published details though.

There is one crowd sourced project for sending 2 porn stars into space to try it. They raised a few $million and are waiting for commercial space launch to be available to the public.A male majority is highly unlikely. So far men have more problems with space illness than women, especially with blindness.

If we are talking about swinging a pick axe into limestone inside a pit men would statistically move more material per hour. Historically women often did work in mines. Higher power in a swing won't be useful in space mining. A small person can be smart with leverage. If you did have people manipulating tools by hand you would get the most economy using light weight miners. The vast majority of work will be done by remote. A human controller would just need to be in the area because of light lag issues. Venus has mythological reasons for adult content. Aside from that I have had some rambling thoughts:

Venus would not need to be a better place. Any location with adequate gravity and living space could work out for adult activity. People will figure out ways to get it done. Venus (and Earth) have a harder time exporting things that have mass. Things like research are very easy to export. Miners in the belt would call Earth anytime something complicated needed to be figured out. Software and movies are ease to send anywhere. Earth will dominate population for a long time.

The filthy rich might set up habitats at Lagrange. Vast zero g manufacturing facilities can float there. Lagrange points and Luna can be easily tied into Earth's virtual economy.

Venus is a set up away from Earth. A story universe probably needs some reason motivating people to want to be away from Earth. People tend to have violence insurgencies. Building resorts off of Earth gives people a secure place to go. Where do you retire too after having built up your wealth? Do you want an ghetto apartment in a Pacific flotilla or would you prefer a 10 acre lot in a cloud city.

Venus and Earth are more centrally located for the belt than any location in the belt. There should be frequent shipments of mined materials heading that way. The time of flight is lower because the Sun's gravity works in your favor.

If you incorporate extreme life extension people may live hundreds of years. Pregnancy and childhood will be a relatively short part of that. It would still be long enough for parents to get tired of a standard tin can space habitat. You also want a large and diverse population for socializing children. The people living in space may not like what they see happening on Earth's surface. So couples (or other options?) might save up money for a few decades and then go somewhere to procreate.

Suppose a miner/astronaut is goes on 2 year missions and then takes 2 years off. She leaves her husband and children (or perhaps creche) someplace safe while on missions. The safe place does not need to have an export industry. The only thing that needs to leave the gravity well is occasional people. Most of the economy needed will be support services. Venus looks like a good option.

A large economy around construction should develop on Venus. Lots of gas separation too. Carbon makes the rafters that support human activities. Beams sit on layers of safety lift cushions. The incoming shipments would be mostly in the form of shield re-entry disks. There would be plenty of work to do. The Apollo reentry vehicles had a limited radius because it needed to leave Earth through the atmosphere. A big disk is extremely cheap and it does not matter if it heats up to a few hundred C. You may need to relaunch a stack of control drones.

I think you could do drag line mining of Venus. Especially if you have graphene. You could support the cable with lifting gas in a tube. Could dump cold lifting gas to cool the line or use CO2 coolant in an outer sheath. IMO this version with a fully independent Venus is much less fun. They still need hydrogen imports anyway.

Still i think there will be a higher number of male volunteers, who are ready to travel, and live in big tin cans (O'Neil cylinders).
Otherwise i like the idea of Venus as pleasure and graphene producing planet. (Since Mercury announce independence, Venus under colonial role can't sell nitrogen to them. But eventually Mercury can take it by force. )

Mercury can separate because its vicinity to the Sun helps it. (Solar storms damaged the sensors of fleet that tried to blockade them. Had Mercury chose to launch WMDs, the Sun would mask the heat signs)

Mars is a center of biotranshumanism, their primary export is data (well Earth simply takes it away that is why martian elite supports the rebellion)
I wonder whether they could produce ceramites too, as insulators? Or extract rare materials from the desert with the help of modified organisms?