Vanadium 50 said:
There was never a time where a PhD guaranteed you a permanent faculty or equivalent position.
There actually was. There was a pretty brief period after WWII, when most Ph.D.'s went directly into faculty. During the 1960's, most Ph.D.'s went into defense related industries, and the issues with oversupply started happening in the early 1970's.
There are a few differences. First, people have finally faced reality. When I graduated in the early-1990's, people were still talking about a shortage of scientists. Denying reality means that you don't have to do anything about it, and it was only around 2000 or so that people starting saying that "yes there is oversupply."
The other big difference is the internet. Until about 1995, the only real information that you could get about physics job market was from people that were talking about a scientist shortage. You could do this in 1975 or even 1995, because people didn't have alternative sources of information. We couldn't have this conversation in 1975.
Social networking also changes things because a Ph.D. that got another job in 1990 "went quietly into the night". This isn't true for someone that got a Ph.D. in 2000.
Good people end up doing something else
What about average or bad people? When people say "good people get jobs", that doesn't help me because I'm lousy. What should I do? Shoot myself?
Again the internet changes things. In the old days, once someone left the university they were no longer the university's problem since they disappeared. One good/bad thing about the internet is that people just don't disappear.
Something about academia is that it's something like a video game in which the top X% get to the next level, but that means that you'll eventually end up in the bottom 90% rather than the top 10%.
One problem with this obsession with being "good" is that it can be self-defeating. For example, I'm a lousy salesman. I've seen great salesman, and I'm not one of them. If I was obsessed with being the top salesman, I wouldn't have done sales. However, because I like to do new things that I'm bad at, I picked up enough sales skills so that I could do useful things when I needed to.
The fact that I'm "bad" I think makes me a much better teacher. There are a lot of professors that are lousy teachers *because* they are brilliant and cannot have empathy with someone that just can't figure out algebra. I can do algebra I, but when I have a student that has a lot of difficulty with it, I know what it *feels* like, because I've been in similar situations.
And it turns out that this is a good thing. A physics degree is something that industries (even banking!) find useful.
So why don't we change the degree to make it easier for people to move out. In my case, things ended up fine, but I had to go through a few years of wrenching changes.
Also one reason the transition was easier for me was that I did some things different. My publication record stinks because I was working on my C++, and I didn't get into the graduate schools of my choice because I was spending more time reading Marxist literature and writing poetry than turning my B to an A.
The one good thing was that I had enough teachers that encouraged me *NOT* to focus exclusively on physics, that I didn't. (Thank you Dean Macvicar).