M6.0 - 68km SSW of Bunisari, Indonesia - Sunda Activity

[Astronuc]

There's been some activity along the Sunda trench, the region where the Australia plate interacts with the Eurasia plate (Sunda Plate) along the southern border of Indonesia. I'm wondering if we'll see a Mag 7.0 or greater soon.

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us20005fv5#general
2016-04-06 14:45:30 (UTC)
Location: Lat 8.198°S, Long 107.419°E
Depth: 35.4 km (22.0 mi)

M5.7 - 232km NNW of Saumlaki, Indonesia
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us20005fx0#general
2016-04-06 20:35:15 (UTC)
Location: Lat 6.031°S, Long 130.450°E
Depth: 127.3 km (79.1 mi) - deep

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/tectonic/images/sumatra_tsum.pdf
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/tectonic/images/newguinea_tsum.pdf

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunda_Plate

Well, I just remembered the Mag 7.8 about a month ago.
https://www.physicsforums.com/threads/major-m-7-8-quake-sw-of-sumatra-indonesia.860215/

 

[Greg Bernhardt]

I'm wondering if we'll see a Mag 7.0 or greater soon.

Any probability calculations?

 

[davenn]

Oops missed responding to this thread
I hadn't bothered to post the seismogram for it as it wasn't anything spectacular to look at

There's been some activity along the Sunda trench, the region where the Australia plate interacts with the Eurasia plate (Sunda Plate) along the southern border of Indonesia. I'm wondering if we'll see a Mag 7.0 or greater soon.

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us20005fv5#general
2016-04-06 14:45:30 (UTC)
Location: Lat 8.198°S, Long 107.419°E
Depth: 35.4 km (22.0 mi)

but just to point out this M6.0 was within the subduction zone

The last 2 significant events in this area were ...

a M 7.7 July, 2006
ftp://hazards.cr.usgs.gov/maps/sigeqs/20060717/20060717.jpg
and
a M7.0, Sept 2009
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eqarchives/poster/2009/20090902.php

whereas this one ...

Well, I just remembered the Mag 7.8 about a month ago.
https://www.physicsforums.com/threads/major-m-7-8-quake-sw-of-sumatra-indonesia.860215/

This event was well west of the trench and the subduction zone. It is more directly related to the long transform faults in that region

Any probability calculations?

I haven't been able, so far, to find any information for such in the Indonesia regionDave

 

[Astronuc]

I'm doing a list of the Sunda/Java trench region over the last 20 years. I need to sort the data. There seems to be two active regions with respect to Mag 7+; one is in the east from Sulawesi through Banda Sea to Pupua, and the other is in the west including western Java and Sumatra. Interestingly, central and eastern Java, Kalimantan and Western Sulawesi don't seem to have Mag 7 earthquakes, at least not during the last 20 years.

I'll do a separate set for Mag 6 - 6.9.

I'd really like a graphic software that can do a 3D image of the Earth's surface with the location (dot) and some details of each earthquake in a given shell element.

I was planning to do a event (mag) vs time plot to see if there is some way to discern a probability.

 

[1oldman2]

I'd really like a graphic software that can do a 3D image of the Earth's surface with the location (dot) and some details of each earthquake in a given shell element.

This is as close as I can get, note the boxes checked in side pane.

 

[davenn]

I'm doing a list of the Sunda/Java trench region over the last 20 years. I need to sort the data. There seems to be two active regions with respect to Mag 7+; one is in the east from Sulawesi through Banda Sea to Pupua, and the other is in the west including western Java and Sumatra. Interestingly, central and eastern Java, Kalimantan and Western Sulawesi don't seem to have Mag 7 earthquakes, at least not during the last 20 years.

I'll do a separate set for Mag 6 - 6.9.

I'd really like a graphic software that can do a 3D image of the Earth's surface with the location (dot) and some details of each earthquake in a given shell element.

I was planning to do a event (mag) vs time plot to see if there is some way to discern a probability.

The map you posted shows a huge seismic gap between eastern Java, through the Bali region and onto the Timor region
That would be a good section of the zone to suspect a decent event in the futureD

 

[davenn]

Hi Astronuc

wonder if by any chance you know Alan Jones, Research Scientist PhD (1964) Purdue University

I have been using a couple of programs of his for many, many years ( well back into the mid '90's )
Seis/eruption and SeismicWaves
http://bingweb.binghamton.edu/~ajones/

Using the Seis/eruption prog, found that even going back to Jan, 1960, 56 years, there has been only 3 x M 7.0 - 7.9 events. Compared to the
active Sumatran Trench to the north, the Java Trench has been very quiet.D