Bush's "16 words" were not based upon the forgeries. They were based off of intelligence gathered from Wissam al-Zahawie's February 1999 departure from Italy to Niger. Because Zahawie was Iraq's ambassador to the Vatican, Italian intelligence was among the first to make note of the travel plans. The Italians alerted the French, who have better contacts in Niger. The French passed word of the visit to the British, who in turn relayed it to Washington. The CIA sent Joseph Wilson to Niger to verify and ascertain the nature of Zahawie's visit. Wilson interviewed Ibrahim Hassane Mayaki, prime minister of Niger at the time of Zahawie's arrival, who confirmed the visit and said that the Iraqi delegation was interested in "expanding commercial relations." It was Mayaki who interpreted this as an interest in uranium. Uranium talks, however, did not move forward from there, as both the UN and the French would not allow a transaction to take place even if an agreement were reached.
This was the intelligence behind Bush's "16 words." It was backed by Italian, French, British and US intelligence (including Joseph Wilson's findings).
The forged documents are a different subject entirely, as they bear the signature and diplomatic seal of Wissam al-Zahawie on papers closing a uranium deal with Niger. As such, they go far beyond the claims of Bush and the intelligence agencies noted above, who claimed only that a delegation had sought uranium from Niger, not that a transaction had taken place.
