Futobingoro
Well, it appears that Joseph Wilson was sent to Niger knowing only about the documents that would later be shown to be forgeries:
Those definitely fit the description of the forged documents.
Wilson did not know, however, that the CIA was also interested in the separate subject of the 1999 Iraqi delegation to Niger. In Niger, Wilson collected information virtually eliminating the possibility of a uranium transaction. He therefore returned to the US thinking that he had debunked the only significant intelligence on Niger, writing that the reports were "unequivocally wrong" and that the documents had been forged. The CIA, however, simultaneously viewed Wilson's report as a reinforcement of the existence of the 1999 delegation. Had Wilson known about the CIA's interest in the 1999 delegation, he likely would have still doubted the forgeries, but he would have recognized the validity of the claim that Iraq was "seeking" uranium in Niger.
Fast forward to the 2003 State of the Union, where Bush spoke the "16 words," claiming that British intelligence had learned that Iraq had sought significant quantities of uranium from Africa. Wilson, in his op-ed:
It is debatable whether Iraq's seeking of uranium was relevant enough to include in the speech, especially because no negotiations ever moved forward. The fact remains, however, that Bush was not lying.
And regarding the conjecture that Mayaki interpreted "expanding commercial relations" as an interest in uranium, I think that it is probably credible, as Mayaki would have the diplomatic background and experience as prime minister to make that interpretation. Additionally, the Butler review noted that uranium constitutes "almost three-quarters of Niger's exports." Depending on the rainfall in a given year, the balance is comprised of livestock, cowpeas, onions and cotton (source). There are also undeveloped mineral deposits.
SourceIn February 2002, I was informed by officials at the Central Intelligence Agency that Vice President Dick Cheney's office had questions about a particular intelligence report. While I never saw the report, I was told that it referred to a memorandum of agreement that documented the sale of uranium yellowcake — a form of lightly processed ore — by Niger to Iraq in the late 1990's.
Those definitely fit the description of the forged documents.
Wilson did not know, however, that the CIA was also interested in the separate subject of the 1999 Iraqi delegation to Niger. In Niger, Wilson collected information virtually eliminating the possibility of a uranium transaction. He therefore returned to the US thinking that he had debunked the only significant intelligence on Niger, writing that the reports were "unequivocally wrong" and that the documents had been forged. The CIA, however, simultaneously viewed Wilson's report as a reinforcement of the existence of the 1999 delegation. Had Wilson known about the CIA's interest in the 1999 delegation, he likely would have still doubted the forgeries, but he would have recognized the validity of the claim that Iraq was "seeking" uranium in Niger.
Fast forward to the 2003 State of the Union, where Bush spoke the "16 words," claiming that British intelligence had learned that Iraq had sought significant quantities of uranium from Africa. Wilson, in his op-ed:
It is my opinion, which I feel is well-founded, that Wilson thought that Bush was referring to the forged documents, and that Wilson understandably went public to correct this "wrong."The next day, I reminded a friend at the State Department of my trip and suggested that if the president had been referring to Niger, then his conclusion was not borne out by the facts as I understood them.
It is debatable whether Iraq's seeking of uranium was relevant enough to include in the speech, especially because no negotiations ever moved forward. The fact remains, however, that Bush was not lying.
And regarding the conjecture that Mayaki interpreted "expanding commercial relations" as an interest in uranium, I think that it is probably credible, as Mayaki would have the diplomatic background and experience as prime minister to make that interpretation. Additionally, the Butler review noted that uranium constitutes "almost three-quarters of Niger's exports." Depending on the rainfall in a given year, the balance is comprised of livestock, cowpeas, onions and cotton (source). There are also undeveloped mineral deposits.