# Paul the octopus

1. Jul 11, 2010

### Calimero

What were the chances that Paul the octopus predicts winners in 7 matches in a row? Assuming that teams are of equal quality, and that first 3 matches could have been tie, and that he didn't have 'tie' option to choose.

2. Jul 12, 2010

### CompuChip

Assuming that all the outcomes were independent,

$$\left( \frac{1}{3} \right)^3 \cdot \left( \frac{1}{2} \right)^4 \approx 0.2 \%$$

3. Jul 12, 2010

### Calimero

Thanks CompuChip. Whole thing is very amusing.

Edit: He actually accurately predicted 8 matches in World cup, so it would be around 0.1% chances to pick the winners on random basis.

Last edited: Jul 12, 2010
4. Jul 12, 2010

### Office_Shredder

Staff Emeritus
I suspect that he picked the countries based on how much red is in the flag.... all the times Germany won, they had more red in their flag with the exception of Ghana, which was equal. Both times Germany lost it was to countries with as much or more red in their flags

5. Jul 12, 2010

### techmologist

Maybe Paul can help me finally hit the pick 6. Been trying since '04. A dadburn head-foot can pick seven, and I can't pick a lousy six? It ain't right.

6. Jul 12, 2010

### SW VandeCarr

I hope this or some similar rational explanation works because otherwise, this is downright freaky!