Probability of picking one black and one white marble

In summary: So the probability of picking 3 and getting one from each color is 24/42, or about 57.14%.In summary, the speaker is discussing the probability of picking marbles from a bowl in different ways, such as picking a white marble followed by a black marble or vice versa. They then ask about how to calculate the probability of specific combinations, such as picking one of each color from a bowl containing 5 red marbles. The formula for calculating this probability involves permutations and combinations, and the speaker gives examples of how to calculate the probability of specific scenarios. The overall formula for this type of probability is to add the probabilities of each individual scenario together, as they are disjoint and cover all possible ways of picking marbles.
  • #1
Addez123
199
21
TL;DR Summary
In a bowl you got 3 white and 4 black marbles.
Pick 2 at random without putting back the marble you picked.
What's the probability of you picking one white and one black marble?
My approach is the amount of successfull options / total amount of options.

I can first pick white in 3 different ways. Then black in 4 different ways
3 * 4
But I can also pick black first then white
4 * 3

Total amount of ways to pick marbles are
7 *6

So the probability is:
(3*4 + 4 * 3) / (7 * 6) = 4/7
which is correct.

But my question is, how do I know how many ways I could've picked successfull options?
In this case it¨'s obvious that I can pick 3 * 4 and 4 * 3 only, but if I have more colored marbles to pick from etc. What's the formula for that?
I don't see how it could be combinations, 7 Choose 2? or 4 Choose 1? Maybe it's binominal 2 over 1 but what does that even mean?
 
Physics news on Phys.org
  • #2
What sort of examples are you thinking about?
 
  • #3
Lets say I add 5 red marbles to the bowl. What's probability of picking 3 and get one from each color?
3 * 4 * 5 / (12 * 11 * 10) * x
How would I get x? Maybe 'x = 3!' ?
 
  • #4
Addez123 said:
Lets say I add 5 red marbles to the bowl. What's probability of picking 3 and get one from each color?
3 * 4 * 5 / (12 * 11 * 10) * x
How would I get x? Maybe 'x = 3!' ?

There are ##3!## different ways of getting one of each: BRW, BWR, RBW, RWB, WBR, WRB.

You can calculate the probability of each of these. Either by your counting method or by direct probabilities. E.g.
$$P(BRW) = \frac 4 {12} \times \frac 5 {11} \times \frac 3 {10} $$
However, if you cakculate some of the others you might notice something about all these probabilities.

If you slelect more than three marbles and are looking for, say, two reds a black and a white, then there are ##\binom 4 2 \times 2!## different ways: RRBW, RRWB, RBRW, RWRB etc.

But, again, if you start calculating the probability of each you might notice something.
 
  • Like
Likes sysprog
  • #5
You have two picks, total.

To pick a black then a white you must pick one of 4 blacks out of 7, and then pick one of 3 whites out of 6, for a probability of 4/7 * 3/6, or 12/42.

The only other way is to first pick a white then a black, which means one of 3 whites out of 7 and then one of 4 blacks out of 6, for a probability of 3/7 * 4/6, another 12/42.

These two scenarios are disjoint and cover all possible ways of picking one of each color in two picks. So the total probability is the sum 12/42 + 12/42 = 24/42.
 

1. What is the probability of picking one black and one white marble from a bag of marbles?

The probability of picking one black and one white marble from a bag of marbles depends on the number of black and white marbles in the bag. If there are equal numbers of black and white marbles, the probability would be 1/2 or 50%. However, if there are more black or white marbles, the probability would be different.

2. How does the number of marbles in the bag affect the probability of picking one black and one white marble?

The number of marbles in the bag does not directly affect the probability of picking one black and one white marble. However, the number of black and white marbles in the bag does affect the probability. The more marbles there are in the bag, the higher the chances of picking one black and one white marble.

3. Can the probability of picking one black and one white marble be greater than 50%?

Yes, the probability of picking one black and one white marble can be greater than 50%. This would happen if there are more black marbles than white marbles in the bag. In this case, the probability would be more than 1/2 or 50%.

4. How does the probability of picking one black and one white marble change if marbles are replaced after each pick?

If marbles are replaced after each pick, the probability of picking one black and one white marble remains the same. This is because each pick is independent of the previous pick, and the number of black and white marbles in the bag remains the same.

5. Can the probability of picking one black and one white marble be calculated if the number of marbles in the bag is unknown?

No, the probability of picking one black and one white marble cannot be accurately calculated if the number of marbles in the bag is unknown. The number of marbles in the bag is a crucial factor in determining the probability, and without this information, the probability cannot be calculated.

Similar threads

  • Set Theory, Logic, Probability, Statistics
Replies
5
Views
1K
  • Set Theory, Logic, Probability, Statistics
Replies
1
Views
964
  • Set Theory, Logic, Probability, Statistics
2
Replies
36
Views
3K
  • Set Theory, Logic, Probability, Statistics
Replies
6
Views
1K
  • Set Theory, Logic, Probability, Statistics
Replies
3
Views
1K
  • Set Theory, Logic, Probability, Statistics
Replies
9
Views
1K
  • Set Theory, Logic, Probability, Statistics
Replies
22
Views
1K
  • Set Theory, Logic, Probability, Statistics
Replies
3
Views
812
  • Set Theory, Logic, Probability, Statistics
Replies
3
Views
1K
  • Set Theory, Logic, Probability, Statistics
Replies
3
Views
1K
Back
Top