Probability of picking one black and one white marble

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    Marble Probability
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Discussion Overview

The discussion revolves around calculating the probability of picking one black and one white marble from a bowl, with variations introduced by adding more colored marbles. Participants explore different methods for determining successful outcomes and total options, as well as how to generalize these calculations for different scenarios.

Discussion Character

  • Mathematical reasoning
  • Exploratory
  • Debate/contested

Main Points Raised

  • One participant proposes calculating the probability as the ratio of successful options to total options, using the formula (3*4 + 4*3) / (7*6).
  • Another participant questions how to determine the number of successful options when more colored marbles are added, suggesting possible combinations or binomial coefficients.
  • A later reply introduces a scenario with 5 red marbles and seeks to calculate the probability of picking one marble of each color, proposing a multiplication of outcomes and questioning how to account for the order of selection.
  • One participant calculates the probability of picking one black and one white marble in two picks, detailing the probabilities for each scenario and asserting that these cover all possible outcomes.
  • Another participant mentions the factorial of arrangements when selecting multiple marbles of different colors, indicating that there are multiple ways to arrange the selected marbles.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants express differing views on how to generalize the probability calculations for scenarios with additional colors of marbles. There is no consensus on a single method or formula for determining successful outcomes in more complex cases.

Contextual Notes

Some participants express uncertainty about the appropriate combinatorial methods to use when the number of colored marbles increases, and there are unresolved questions about how to calculate probabilities for more complex selections.

Addez123
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TL;DR
In a bowl you got 3 white and 4 black marbles.
Pick 2 at random without putting back the marble you picked.
What's the probability of you picking one white and one black marble?
My approach is the amount of successfull options / total amount of options.

I can first pick white in 3 different ways. Then black in 4 different ways
3 * 4
But I can also pick black first then white
4 * 3

Total amount of ways to pick marbles are
7 *6

So the probability is:
(3*4 + 4 * 3) / (7 * 6) = 4/7
which is correct.

But my question is, how do I know how many ways I could've picked successfull options?
In this case it¨'s obvious that I can pick 3 * 4 and 4 * 3 only, but if I have more colored marbles to pick from etc. What's the formula for that?
I don't see how it could be combinations, 7 Choose 2? or 4 Choose 1? Maybe it's binominal 2 over 1 but what does that even mean?
 
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What sort of examples are you thinking about?
 
Lets say I add 5 red marbles to the bowl. What's probability of picking 3 and get one from each color?
3 * 4 * 5 / (12 * 11 * 10) * x
How would I get x? Maybe 'x = 3!' ?
 
Addez123 said:
Lets say I add 5 red marbles to the bowl. What's probability of picking 3 and get one from each color?
3 * 4 * 5 / (12 * 11 * 10) * x
How would I get x? Maybe 'x = 3!' ?

There are ##3!## different ways of getting one of each: BRW, BWR, RBW, RWB, WBR, WRB.

You can calculate the probability of each of these. Either by your counting method or by direct probabilities. E.g.
$$P(BRW) = \frac 4 {12} \times \frac 5 {11} \times \frac 3 {10} $$
However, if you cakculate some of the others you might notice something about all these probabilities.

If you slelect more than three marbles and are looking for, say, two reds a black and a white, then there are ##\binom 4 2 \times 2!## different ways: RRBW, RRWB, RBRW, RWRB etc.

But, again, if you start calculating the probability of each you might notice something.
 
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You have two picks, total.

To pick a black then a white you must pick one of 4 blacks out of 7, and then pick one of 3 whites out of 6, for a probability of 4/7 * 3/6, or 12/42.

The only other way is to first pick a white then a black, which means one of 3 whites out of 7 and then one of 4 blacks out of 6, for a probability of 3/7 * 4/6, another 12/42.

These two scenarios are disjoint and cover all possible ways of picking one of each color in two picks. So the total probability is the sum 12/42 + 12/42 = 24/42.
 

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