Iskandarani said:
@Demystifier. Thank you, I appreciate the sugestion. If you have a favorite review/textbook section that walks through the hierarchy
CED → QED (Heisenberg–Euler, running of α) → SM, and a standard treatment of
Maxwell on curved backgrounds (constitutive-tensor viewpoint vs. “just” GR kinematics), I’d appreciate the citation. I think that ladder will help me frame the “vacuum properties” question within established theory.
@PeterDonis — the cautionary note is well taken.
To sharpen my understanding (and to keep this squarely within published work), could I ask for pointers on two things?
- Concrete case studies of “parameter-reduction” that failed. For example, reviews that lay out which specific predictions in simple GUTs (e.g., classic proton-decay channels and lifetimes in minimal setups) conflicted with later data, and how the community weighed those misses against the aesthetic appeal of unification/parameter economy.
For the most part, the problem is that string theory and GUTs and other BSM models simply don't make predictions about parameters at all, even though they should be able to do so in principle.
Attempts to fix parameters in the supersymmetry paradigm have a long history of making predictions about new supersymmetric particles at particular masses which haven't been seen but should be possible to observe "just around the corner" which are then ruled out, after which a new set of "just around the corner" predictions are made.
See the second to last update from Woit
at this link noting this reality. A
preprint of a commissioned review article for the Encyclopedia for Particle Physics, submitted on May 3, 2025 by Hyun Min Lee, entitled "Supersymmetry and LHC era" updates the experimental bounds on supersymmetry (SUSY) theories based upon the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) data. A paper that all but spells out this problem clearly is Luis A. Anchordoqui, Ignatios Antoniadis, Karim Benakli, Jules Cunat, Dieter Lust, "SUSY at the FPF",
arXiv:2410.16342 (October 21, 2024).
I have a running list of more interesting papers that were attempting to do this (which is far from comprehensive), none of which are particularly precise. Many were subsequently published, but its more convenient to use the arXiv link which is never pay per view and is the first one you encounter.
Tejinder P. Singh, "Fermion mass ratios from the exceptional Jordan algebra"
arXiv:2508.10131 (August 13, 2025) (90 pages).
Jean-Marcel Rax, "Gravity induced CP violation in mesons mixing, decay and interference experiments"
arXiv:2503.09465 (March 12, 2025).
Boris Altshuler, "Quark mixing angles and weak CP-violating phase vs quark masses: potential approach"
arXiv:2303.16568 (March 29, 2023) (substantial text overlap with
arXiv:2210.09780).
Nobuhito Maru, Yoshiki Yatagai, "Fermion Mass Hierarchy in Grand Gauge-Higgs Unification"
https://arxiv.org/abs/1903.08359
Van E. Mayes "All Fermion Masses and Mixings in an Intersecting D-brane World"
https://arxiv.org/abs/1902.00983
Alexander Baur, Hans Peter Nilles, Andreas Trautner, Patrick K.S. Vaudrevange, "Unification of Flavor, CP, and Modular Symmetries"
https://arxiv.org/abs/1901.03251
Andrea Wulzer, "Behind the Standard Model"
https://arxiv.org/abs/1901.01017
Junu Jeong, Jihn E. Kim, Se-Jin Kim, "Flavor mixing inspired by flipped SU(5) GUT"
https://arxiv.org/abs/1812.02556
Gauhar Abbas, "A new solution of the fermionic mass hierarchy of the standard model"
https://arxiv.org/abs/1807.05683
Emiliano Molinaro, Francesco Sannino, Zhi-Wei Wang, "Safe Pati-Salam"
https://arxiv.org/abs/1807.03669
J. T. Penedo, S. T. Petcov, "Lepton Masses and Mixing from Modular S4 Symmetry"
https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.11040
Yoshio Koide, Hiroyuki Nishiura, "Parameter-Independent Quark Mass Relation in the U(3)×U(3)′ Model"
https://arxiv.org/abs/1805.07334
T. K. Kuo, S. H. Chiu, "Flavor Mixing and the Permutation Symmetry among Generations"
https://arxiv.org/abs/1805.05600
M. Novello, V. Antunes, "Connecting the Cabbibo-Kobayashi-Maskawa matrix to quark masses"
https://arxiv.org/abs/1804.00572
Astrid Eichhorn, Aaron Held, "Mass difference for charged quarks from asymptotically safe quantum gravity"
https://arxiv.org/abs/1803.04027
HM Chan, ST Tsou, "The Framed Standard Model (I) - A Physics Case for Framing the Yang-Mills Theory?"
https://arxiv.org/abs/1505.05472
Stephen F. King "A model of quark and lepton mixing"
https://arxiv.org/abs/1311.3295
J. Lemmon, "The origin of fermion families and the value of the fine structure constant"
https://arxiv.org/abs/1307.2201
A less ambitious recent paper that tried to work out first generation SM fermion masses from self-interactions (not for the first time) is Eckart Marsch, Yasuhito Narita, "On the Lagrangian and fermion mass of the unified SU(2) ⊗ SU(4) gauge field theory"
arXiv:2508.15332 (August 21, 2025) (13 pages).
Another less ambitious paper simply tries to calculate a maximum particle energy from quantum gravity considerations. Jarmo Mäkelä, "A Possible Quantum Effect of Gravitation"
arXiv:2405.18502 (May 28, 2024).
Some papers focus on maximizing or minimizing some quantity such as:
Jesse Thaler, Sokratis Trifinopoulos, "Flavor Patterns of Fundamental Particles from Quantum Entanglement?"
arXiv:2410.23343 (October 30, 2024)
Alexandre Alves, Alex G. Dias, Roberto da Silva, "
Maximum Entropy Principle and the Higgs boson mass" (2015).
A review/analysis paper grappling with what GUT theories are and aren't inconsistent with observation is Giacomo Cacciapaglia, Aldo Deandrea, Konstantinos Kollias, Francesco Sannino, "Grand-unification Theory Atlas: Standard Model and Beyond"
arXiv:2507.06368 (July 8, 2025).
A
new review paper which will be a chapter in an Encyclopedia of Particle Physics summarizes various theories that have been advanced to explain the fundamental fermion masses in the Standard Model, and while it isn't complete, its table of contents is a nice summary of some of the leading approaches. Its table of contents lays out some of the leading approaches and catalogues their introductions and failures.
2 Fermion masses and mixing angles
3 In search of an organizing principle
4 Grand Unified Theories
5 Fermion masses from quantum corrections
5.1 Radiative fermion masses
5.2 Infrared fixed points
6.1 Massless composite fermions
6.2 Partial compositeness
7.1 The Froggatt-Nielsen Model
7.2 Variants and alternatives
8 Fermion masses in String Theory
8.1 Aiming at the SM from strings
8.2 Eclectic flavor symmetries from heterotic orbifolds
8.3 Flavor in models with D-branes
8.4 Metaplectic flavor symmetries from magnetized branes
Koide's 1981 rule for charged lepton masses is one of the few empirical successes of the genre to high precision, although there are multiple proposed theories about why it works. The
Koide's rule predicted value for the tau lepton mass is 1776.96894(7) MeV. The
Particle Data Group's world average of the tau lepton mass is 1776.93 ± 0.09 MeV which is a precision of slightly under one part per 20,000. The experimentally measured mass of the tau lepton is consistent with the Koide's rule prediction made in 1981 at the 0.4 sigma level, even though the relevant masses were known much less precisely in 1981, and the experimental value has grown closer to the predicted value over time.
Efforts have been made to generalize Koide's rule for charged lepton masses to quarks such as A. C. Kleppe's
preprint entitled "Quark mass matrices inspired by a numerical relation" that explores how Koide's rule for charged lepton masses can be extended to quarks. A similar approach is taken in Alejandro Rivero, "An interpretation of scalars in SO(32)"
arXiv:2407.05397 (July 7, 2024) (the published version is open access and was published on October 15, 2024).
But part of the problem with any proposed explanation of the quark masses is that unlike the electron, muon, and tau lepton masses, the quark masses (because they are confined in hadrons for the first five and because top quark mass is hard to measure even though it can be done directly) aren't measured nearly so precisely, so you can't definitely confirm or rule out any proposal for explaining their masses. The theory space of proposals that can fit the quark masses to ± 2 sigma (which is the usual standard in high energy physics for a theory being consistent with the experimental evidence) is huge. The relative precision of the various fundamental physics constants and their values (some of which are a few years out of date) are summarized here:
There is also no consensus on whether a proposal to explain these masses should fit some formula at a single energy scale (since masses and other Standard Model parameters run with energy scale), or if it should, like Koide's rule, apply to "pole masses" (in the case of c, b, and t quarks) which are unique, and if so why.
Not long before the Higgs boson was definitively discovered and its properties were measured, one paper listed dozens of different predictions for its mass, some of which, inevitably, were consistent with the final result because there was some paper making a guess about almost the entire plausible range of Higgs bosons masses.