Poisson counting process & order statistics

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Discussion Overview

The discussion revolves around the application of a theorem related to Poisson processes and order statistics. Participants explore the implications of treating the number of events in a Poisson process as a fixed value versus a random variable, particularly in the context of calculating expected waiting times for events occurring within a specified time frame.

Discussion Character

  • Technical explanation
  • Debate/contested

Main Points Raised

  • One participant presents a theorem stating that the conditional density function of the time of the nth event in a Poisson process is equivalent to the density function of the minimum of i.i.d. uniform random variables.
  • The same participant provides an example involving customers arriving at a store, leading to a calculation of expected waiting time.
  • Another participant questions the application of the theorem, noting that the example treats the number of events as a random variable rather than a fixed number, which may contradict the theorem's requirements.
  • Some participants suggest that the theorem's application requires taking the expectation of the conditional expectation to reconcile the random nature of N.
  • A further inquiry is made about whether the distributional equality of the arrival times and order statistics still holds when N is treated as a random variable.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants express differing views on the applicability of the theorem when N is treated as a random variable. There is no consensus on whether the theorem can be applied in the context of the example provided.

Contextual Notes

Participants highlight the importance of distinguishing between fixed and random values in the context of Poisson processes, which may affect the validity of the theorem and the calculations derived from it. The discussion remains open regarding the implications of these distinctions.

kingwinner
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Theorem: Let {N(t): t≥0} be a Poisson process of rate λ. Suppose we are given that for a fixed t, N(t)=n. Let Ti be the time of the ith event, i=1,2,...n.
Then the (conditional) density function of Tn given that N(t)=n is the exactly the same as the density function of X(1)=min{X1,X2,...,Xn}, where X1,X2,...,Xn are i.i.d. uniform(0,t).
(similar result holds for the density of the other Ti's)

Example: Let {N(t): t≥0} be a Poisson process of rate λ. The points are to be thought of as being the arrival times of customers to a store which opens at time t=T. The customers arriving between t=0 and t=T have to wait until the store opens. Let Y be the total times that these customers have to wait. Calculate E(Y).

Solution:
N(T)=N
N(T)~Poisson(λT)
(T1,T2,...,TN) is equal in distribution to (X(1),X(2),...,X(N)), where the order statistics are coming from X1,X2,...,XN which are i.i.d. uniform(0,T).
=> T1+T2+...+TN is equal in distribution to X(1)+X(2)+...+X(N) = X1+X2+...+XN
E(Y)=E(total waiting time)
=E[(T-T1)+(T-T2)+...+(T-TN)]
=E(NT) - E(T1+T2+...+TN)
=T E(N) - E(X1+X2+...+XN)
=T E(N) - E[E(X1+X2+...+XN|N)]
=T E(N) - E[N E(X1)]
=T E(N) - E[N T/2]
=T E(N) - (T/2) E[N]
=(1/2) T E(N)
=(1/2) T λT
================================
In the theorem, we require N(t)=n where n is a FIXED number. But throughout the solution (for example when they calculate E[X1+X2+...+XN]), N(t)=N is being treated as a RANDOM VARIABLE rather than a fixed number. Why? If N is a random variable, I don't think the theorem above applies...will we still have that TN is equal in distirbution to X(N)? Why or why not?
In other words, I am questioning the statement "(T1,T2,...,TN) is equal in distribution to (X(1),X(2),...,X(N))" in the solution of the example. Here N itself is a random variable, but in the theorem it is required to be fixed (in the theorem we're GIVEN the value of N(t))...

Can someone please explain? Any help is greatly appreciated!:)
 
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Apparently by "N(T)=N" they did not mean N is deterministic.
 
kingwinner said:
I don't think the theorem above applies...
That's right, you'll need the theorem that the joint distribution of the arrival times conditional on N is the same as the order stats of the uniform distribution.

kingwinner said:
...Here N itself is a random variable, but in the theorem it is required to be fixed..
To apply the theorem correctly, take the expectation of the conditional expectation.
 
If the theorem above does not apply in our problem, is it still true that "(T1,T2,...,TN) is equal in distribution to (X(1),X(2),...,X(N))" ?(here N=N(T) is a random variable, I believe) Why or why not?
 

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