Poisson counting process & order statistics

In summary, the theorem states that for a given Poisson process with rate λ and a fixed time t, the density function of Tn given that N(t)=n is the same as the density function of X(1)=min{X1,X2,...,Xn}, where X1,X2,...,Xn are i.i.d. uniform(0,t). This result also holds for the density of the other Ti's. In the given example, the waiting time of customers can be calculated using this theorem and the expectation of the waiting time can be found by taking the expectation of the conditional expectation. However, if N is a random variable instead of a fixed number in the theorem, then the joint distribution of the arrival times
  • #1
kingwinner
1,270
0
Theorem: Let {N(t): t≥0} be a Poisson process of rate λ. Suppose we are given that for a fixed t, N(t)=n. Let Ti be the time of the ith event, i=1,2,...n.
Then the (conditional) density function of Tn given that N(t)=n is the exactly the same as the density function of X(1)=min{X1,X2,...,Xn}, where X1,X2,...,Xn are i.i.d. uniform(0,t).
(similar result holds for the density of the other Ti's)

Example: Let {N(t): t≥0} be a Poisson process of rate λ. The points are to be thought of as being the arrival times of customers to a store which opens at time t=T. The customers arriving between t=0 and t=T have to wait until the store opens. Let Y be the total times that these customers have to wait. Calculate E(Y).

Solution:
N(T)=N
N(T)~Poisson(λT)
(T1,T2,...,TN) is equal in distribution to (X(1),X(2),...,X(N)), where the order statistics are coming from X1,X2,...,XN which are i.i.d. uniform(0,T).
=> T1+T2+...+TN is equal in distribution to X(1)+X(2)+...+X(N) = X1+X2+...+XN
E(Y)=E(total waiting time)
=E[(T-T1)+(T-T2)+...+(T-TN)]
=E(NT) - E(T1+T2+...+TN)
=T E(N) - E(X1+X2+...+XN)
=T E(N) - E[E(X1+X2+...+XN|N)]
=T E(N) - E[N E(X1)]
=T E(N) - E[N T/2]
=T E(N) - (T/2) E[N]
=(1/2) T E(N)
=(1/2) T λT
================================
In the theorem, we require N(t)=n where n is a FIXED number. But throughout the solution (for example when they calculate E[X1+X2+...+XN]), N(t)=N is being treated as a RANDOM VARIABLE rather than a fixed number. Why? If N is a random variable, I don't think the theorem above applies...will we still have that TN is equal in distirbution to X(N)? Why or why not?
In other words, I am questioning the statement "(T1,T2,...,TN) is equal in distribution to (X(1),X(2),...,X(N))" in the solution of the example. Here N itself is a random variable, but in the theorem it is required to be fixed (in the theorem we're GIVEN the value of N(t))...

Can someone please explain? Any help is greatly appreciated!:)
 
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  • #2
Apparently by "N(T)=N" they did not mean N is deterministic.
 
  • #3
kingwinner said:
I don't think the theorem above applies...
That's right, you'll need the theorem that the joint distribution of the arrival times conditional on N is the same as the order stats of the uniform distribution.

kingwinner said:
...Here N itself is a random variable, but in the theorem it is required to be fixed..
To apply the theorem correctly, take the expectation of the conditional expectation.
 
  • #4
If the theorem above does not apply in our problem, is it still true that "(T1,T2,...,TN) is equal in distribution to (X(1),X(2),...,X(N))" ?(here N=N(T) is a random variable, I believe) Why or why not?
 

1. What is a Poisson counting process?

A Poisson counting process is a stochastic process that models the number of occurrences of an event in a fixed interval of time, space, or volume. It is based on the Poisson distribution, which describes the probability of a given number of events occurring in a fixed interval of time or space, assuming that the events occur independently and at a constant rate.

2. What is the significance of the Poisson counting process in science?

The Poisson counting process is commonly used in various fields of science, such as physics, biology, and engineering, to model the occurrence of discrete events. It is particularly useful in situations where events occur randomly and independently, such as radioactive decay, particle collisions, and customer arrivals in a queue.

3. How is the Poisson counting process related to order statistics?

Order statistics refers to the study of the ranked order of a set of random variables. In the context of Poisson counting process, order statistics can be used to determine the probability of the kth event occurring in a given time interval. This is useful for predicting the occurrence of rare events or estimating the time until the next event occurs.

4. Can the Poisson counting process be used to model continuous events?

While the Poisson counting process is commonly used to model discrete events, it can also be applied to continuous events by dividing the time interval into smaller sub-intervals. As the sub-intervals become smaller, the process approaches a continuous-time model. However, this approach may not be appropriate for events that occur at irregular intervals or events that are influenced by external factors.

5. Are there any limitations to the Poisson counting process?

Yes, there are some limitations to the Poisson counting process. It assumes that events occur independently and at a constant rate, which may not always be the case in real-life situations. Additionally, it is not suitable for modeling events with long inter-arrival times or when the number of events is highly variable. In these cases, alternative distributions or models may be more appropriate.

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