Poisson Process Probability Question

[sakebu]

Hello,

I have this one problem but have no idea how to get started.

Avg. number of accidents is .4 accidents / day (Poisson Process)

What is the probability that the time from now to the next accident will be more than 3 days?

What is the probability that the the time from now to the 3rd accident will be more than 5 days?

Any information / formulas would be appreciated.

 

[economicsnerd]

The trick to finding the probability of a given event is to express it in terms of probabilities you know. For example, \begin{eqnarray*}<br /> P(\text{next accident is the day after tomorrow or later}) &amp;=&amp; P(\text{no accident today or tomorrow}) \\<br /> &amp;=&amp; P(\text{no accident today}) \cdot P(\text{no accident tomorrow}|\text{no accident today}) \\<br /> &amp;=&amp; P(\text{no accident today}) \cdot P(\text{no accident tomorrow}) \\<br /> &amp;=&amp; P(\text{no accident on a given day})^2 \\<br /> &amp;=&amp; [1- P(\text{accident on a given day})]^2<br /> \end{eqnarray*}