Probability of 25-30 Correct Answers on 200-Q Quiz

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The discussion revolves around calculating the probability of answering between 25 to 30 questions correctly on a 200-question multiple-choice quiz, using the binomial distribution. The initial approach involved simplifying the problem by dividing the number of questions, but this raised confusion regarding the correct methodology. Participants suggest using the normal distribution as an approximation to the binomial distribution for a more accurate calculation. The calculations for answering 5 or 6 questions correctly out of 16 were discussed, yielding a combined probability of 29%. The consensus emphasizes the importance of applying the normal approximation rather than simplifying the problem incorrectly.
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Homework Statement



A multiple-choice quiz has 200 questions each with 4 possible answers of which 1 is correct. What is the probability that guesswork yields from 25 to 30 correct answers for 80 of the 200 questions. [HINT: approximation may be helpful here]

Homework Equations



Binomial distribution
(n choose x)p^x*(1-p)^(n-x)

The Attempt at a Solution



Since 80! is too big of a number and I can't calculate for instance (80 chose 25) I decided to divide everything by 5, I am not sure if this is what the hint is indicating.

Now I have 16 questions and I have to find the probability of answering correctly from 5 to 6.

Event A: answer 5 questions correctly
Event B: answer 6 questions correctly

I am looking for P(A OR B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A AND B)

P(A)=(16 choose 5)(0.25)^5*(0.75)^11=0.18
P(B)=(16 choose 6)(0.25)^6*(0.75)^10=0.11
P(A AND B)=0

P(A OR B)=0.18 + 0.11 = 0.29 or 29%

Is this the correct way? I am mostly confused because of the "from 25 to 30" and I am not sure if the division by 5 is correct.

Thank you in advance.
 
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I think when it says use an approximation it means use the normal distribution as an approximation to the binomial distribution, not divide everything by 5.
 
danago said:
I think when it says use an approximation it means use the normal distribution as an approximation to the binomial distribution, not divide everything by 5.

Thank you, I believe you are absolutely right. I am fairly new to probability as you can see.
 
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