B Probability of loto hitting a specific place

[Zeynel]

Someone asked me this question. The numbers are real.

İn Turkey there are 957 cities where Loto is drawn every week. In the last 5 years the big prize was drawn at one location 26 times. What is the probability that a single location will get the big prize 26 times in 5 years.

I think, though, there is a missing information. We need to know how many tickets were sold at each location. Is that correct?

 

[BWV]

Yes. You need the number of tickets sold. Also its important to understand that the probability of one particular city, selected ex ante, winning 26 times in 5 years is very different than the ex post probability that one of the 957 cities wins 26 times in 5 years. Just like the odds of you winning the lottery are very different than the odds that someone will be a lottery winner

 

[Zeynel]

the probability of one particular city, selected ex ante, winning 26 times in 5 years is very different than the ex post probability that one of the 957 cities wins 26 times in 5 years.

Can you explain this? I am not sure I understand the difference.

So in this case if we assume that the same number of tickets are sold in each location, what is the probability in 5 years that one of the locations will have 26 wins? Is this ex ante case? What is ex post case, then?

Also, does it matter that there are 6 numbers in each ticket? I guess not.