Probability of Winning/Losing given the number of Wins/Losses/Draws

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The discussion focuses on calculating the probabilities of a sports team winning or losing both the first and last games of a season, given their total wins, draws, and losses. The user presents two methods for calculating the probability of winning both games, leading to a formula that simplifies to w(w-1) / [(w+d+l)(w+d+l-1)]. For the probability of losing both games, a similar approach yields l(l-1) / [(w+d+l)(w+d+l-1)]. The user expresses uncertainty about the relevance of other game outcomes between the first and last games. Overall, the thread seeks clarification on the calculations and their implications.
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I have been looking at the following problem but have doubts about my solution:

Suppose you are told that a particular team has won w games, drawn d games and lost l games during the course of a season. Calculate the probability that

a) the team won both the first and last games of the season,

b) the team lost both the first and the last games of the season.

I have tried to solve part a) using two methods and both seem to give me the same answer;

a) 1st Method using possible combinations/total combinations

Total no. of games played = w+d+l

Total no. of combinations =

(w+d+l)!
--------
w!d!l!

No. of combinations if 1st and last is a win =

(w+d+l-2)!
----------
(w-2)!d!l!

1) Probability of winning 1st and Last game) :-

(w+d+l-2)!
----------
(w-2)!d!l!
--------------
(w+d+l)!
--------
w!d!l!

where (w-2)! =

w!
-------
w(w-1)

and (w+d+l-2)! =

(w+d+l)!
---------------
(w+d+l)(w+d+l-1)

Equation 1) then simplifies to:-

w(w-1)
-----------------
(w+d+l)(w+d+l-1)


2nd Method

Probability of winning 1 game:-

P(w) =
w
-------
(w+d+l)

Probability of winning a second game

P(w2) =

w-1
---------
(w+d+l-1)

Therefore probability of winning the last game, given they won the first game :-

w(w-1)
----------------
(w+d+l)(w+d+l-1)

b)

Using the same logic I calculated that:-

Probability team loses the 1st and last game:-

l(l-1)
----------------
(w+d+l)(w+d+l-1)

I keep thinking I've missed something here. I'm not sure about the probability of the last win/loss and also if any wins/losses between the first/last game are relevant. Can someone please help?
 
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Looks o.k.
 
Thanks Pere
 
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