Science which goes into computing hurricane predictions

[scottdave]

With Hurricane Harvey hitting the Texas Gulf Coast, I came across this article, while trying to learn about these different computer models.
I found the article in this PDF file an interesting read. I'm sure that there have been some advances in real-time prediction methods, since this article (Nov. 2008). And yet we still have estimates, which often disagree with each other.
https://www.tacc.utexas.edu/documents/13601/125287/science_center_of_storm.pdf

 

[Astronuc]

And yet we still have estimates, which often disagree with each other.

Predictive analysis in multiphysics is challenging.

 

[BillTre]

You might find this open access news article from Science magazine interesting.

Its about new approaches in weather and climate prediction.

 

[BillTre]

Here is another news article from Science magazine, on this subject, WRT the current storm.

 

[Astronuc]

Here is a summary of Maria. There is an image showing the predicted paths Maria will take over the next 5 days, hopefully out to sea, rather than over the coast.

The last image is a table with the low pressure readings from various intense hurricanes. The pressure is just one key variable one has to include in a simulation.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/as-hurricane-maria-slowly-pulls-away-from-puerto-rico-the-us-east-coast-awaits-its-next-move/ar-AAsgETl?li=BBmkt5R

 

[Astronuc]

Five years later - https://www.forbes.com/sites/marsha...use-false-narratives-about-weather-forecasts/

. . . graphic below shows the reduction in average track errors in the Atlantic Basin from 1970 to 2020. Clearly, there are dramatic improvements in the 1 to 5 day range. Today, the average error at 1-day is less than 50 nautical miles. In the early 1970s, it was 2 to 3 times that amount. Today, a 3-day forecast is better than a 1-day forecast in 1970.

http://bmcnoldy.blogspot.com/2022/04/2022-cone-of-uncertainty-update.html