Severe drought and wildfires in the western US

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In summary, It looks like this year's drought might be ending, but with the possibility for more rain in the Pacific Northwest, it's still too early to tell.
  • #1
Astronuc
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Early last year, I started a thread about the severe drought in the Western US.
https://www.physicsforums.com/threads/western-us-in-severe-drought.736184/

This year has been worse, and to compound the problems, we now have wildfires.
http://news.yahoo.com/western-wildfires-wind-heat-dry-land-fueling-large-163106757.html#[/URL]

The brush and trees are so dry, that brushfires climb into the forest canopies in areas where the brushfires usually just burn the brush. I've seen at least one brushfire up close, but otherwise, we just get smoke in the air from fires that that are 100 to 150 miles away.

In our area, trees are stressed from the drought, and a recent wind/dust storm broke branches from trees and sent them flying across the area.In contrast, some are predicting more precipitation in the Pacific NW.

Super cold, slew of snow in Old Farmer's Almanac forecast
[PLAIN]http://news.yahoo.com/super-cold-slew-snow-old-farmers-almanac-forecast-155616699.html[/URL]
[QUOTE]The Old Farmer's Almanac predicts it will be super cold with a slew of snow for much of the country, even in places that don't usually see too much of it, like the Pacific Northwest.

Otherwise, look for above-normal snow and below-normal temperatures for much of New England; icy conditions in parts of the South; and frigid weather in the Midwest. The snowiest periods in the Pacific Northwest will be in mid-December, early to mid-January and mid- to late February, the almanac predicts.[/QUOTE] We really need the precipitation, and snow in the mountains. This past winter we have about 30-50% of normal snow in the mountains.

Apparently California will not get much of a reprieve from their drought - or maybe they will.

Developing El Niño could be strongest on record
[URL='http://www.nature.com/news/developing-el-ni%C3%B1o-could-be-strongest-on-record-1.18184']http://www.nature.com/news/developing-el-niño-could-be-strongest-on-record-1.18184[/URL]
[QUOTE]
[SIZE=4][B]Could this end the drought in California?[/B][/SIZE]
El Niño could offer some relief to the US state, which is now in [URL='http://www.nature.com/news/how-california-can-survive-the-drought-1.17265'][U]the fourth year[/U][/URL] of [URL='http://www.nature.com/news/native-ecosystems-blitzed-by-drought-1.15707'][U]a historic drought[/U][/URL]. Forecasters say that there is a good chance that southern California will receive more rainfall than usual throughout the winter. In the past, very strong El Niños have also soaked the central and northern parts of the state.

Still, “one season of above-normal rain and snow is very unlikely to erase four years of drought”, says Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center in College Park, Maryland. According to a study published last month in the [I]Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmosphere[/I]s[URL='http://www.nature.com/news/developing-el-ni%C3%B1o-could-be-strongest-on-record-1.18184#b1'][U]1[/U][/URL], California's rain shortfall since the start of the current drought is roughly equal to the amount of rain the state would receive in a normal year.
[/QUOTE]
 
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  • #2
Could this end the drought in California?
El Niño could offer some relief to the US state

This would just be a temporary relief though right?
 
  • #3
Astronuc said:
Early last year, I started a thread about the severe drought in the Western US.

Where do you live, Astronuc? I live in Tacoma, Washington and it's been the driest summer I can remember. I bought a lawn mower from Sears last year and got the extended 3 year warranty because I thought I'd be doing a lot of mowing this summer. Didn't happen. I think I used it once or twice during the spring but then my lawn turned into a yellow bed of straw. My immediate neighbor's of course, have a nice lush lawn, pretty enough to take out you golf bag and golf on. But guess why this is? It's becuase they are renters and utilities are probably included with the rent. So they got that sprinkler running all day and night.

I, on the other hand, do not have free utilities, I own my house. Plus, we are in a drought and the Pierce county controller just issued a request that the citizens cut their water consumption:

https://www.co.pierce.wa.us/index.aspx?NID=4242

I am tempted to call out my neighbors on this, but the counterside is that they have to put up with my environmentally conscious yellow lawn, so I'm going to hold my mud for now.
 
  • #4
Greg Bernhardt said:
This would just be a temporary relief though right?
Yes, it would be more or less temporary, since it probably would not address the longer term water usage for irrigation and municipal usage. I believe California is a year behind. What is needed is several years of snows to get the water stored in the mountains over winter so that the summer periods have sufficient water supply.

DiracPool said:
Where do you live, Astronuc?
On the drier side east of the Cascades, but aside a larger river.
 
  • #6
SteamKing said:
Then, the headlines will be about all the floods and mudslides which hit Cali after the rains start.
I suspect that would be the case should predictions of the strongest El Niño on record prove true and if the precipitation would be heavier than normal.

From fires to floods.

Hopefully, the precipitation will be in the form of snow in the mountains - Sierra and Cascades, and Rockies - during the winter, and not so much as rain.
 
  • #7
Greg Bernhardt said:
This would just be a temporary relief though right?
Why is new precipitation necessarily temporary relief?
 
  • #8
mheslep said:
Why is new precipitation necessarily temporary relief?
I think because of the severity and length of the current drought, the water levels in reservoirs have dropped to such a low level, it will take several years of above average precipitation to fully replenish them. The water problems in Cali and in much of the West are not going to disappear overnight, I'm afraid.
 
  • #9
This article in the LA Times points to how Cali has slipped into a "Never Let a Crisis Go To Waste" mode of thinking:

http://www.latimes.com/local/california/la-me-next-drought-20150816-story.html

Currently, state and local officials believe that with a little belt tightening (never on the financial side, of course) and a few key projects targeted for certain areas, Cali can support 50 million residents in the mid-21st Century about as well as it can support the current population of fewer than 40 million.

But when utility infrastructure, especially power generation, is currently operating at or beyond design capacity, how do you prevent it from aging and wearing out prematurely? What happens when a large power station can't squeeze out those few extra kilowatts and must be replaced from the ground up?

It must look funny when someone from back east visits Cali now, seeing all these officials walking around with their fingers crossed behind their backs.

(And, all this assumes that Cali will not be struck by any other natural disasters in the meantime, which unfortunately, Bay Area residents were reminded might be a tad optimistic, when they woke up to a Mag. 4.0 tremor this morning.)
 
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  • #10
It may be time to rethink water management in California, where for some time in any contest between new water infrastructure and opposition the default victor was opposition. See cancellation of capacity improvement to the Shasta Dam. See cancellation of construction of the Peripheral Canal, the large Ah Pah and Dos Rios reservoirs, and the smaller Los Banos and Temperance Flat dams.

The current drought is severe with respect to recent history, but over the longer sweep of time such is to be expected in California. Apparently the average precipitation in the 20th century was one of the highest in many centuries. Time to (re)-adapt.
20140127_031535_ssjm0126megadry90_500.jpg
 
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  • #12
  • #13
I used to fly to S. Cal several times a year for more than a decade, and it always amazed me to see hundreds of miles of irrigation canals stretch across the desert areas to patchworks of irrigated areas surrounded by desert. I've seen similar practices in other western states, who are now experiencing difficulties of insufficient water supply.
 
  • #14
I was listening to the radio this afternoon and heard that residents of two towns, Wintrop and Twisp in Washington State, were ordered to evacuate. Folks were told to go south. Folks from Winthrop were told not to drive to Twisp, because of the traffic. Well, there is little south of Winthrop except Twisp. Maybe the Winthrop folks are supposed to go west on US 20, and Twisp folks are supposed to go south. Both towns are north of the Chelan fire complex.

http://nwpr.org/post/three-firefighters-killed-battling-wildfire-twisp

Three firefighters killed in Washington state wildfire
http://news.yahoo.com/sheriff-3-firefighters-killed-washington-state-wildfire-005836275.html
 
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  • #15
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A consequence of the drought is the increased use of ground water that is not being replenished by precipitation. Some areas are experiencing significant subsidence.

California Sinking Faster Than Thought, Aquifers Could Permanently Shrink
http://news.yahoo.com/california-si...ifers-could-permanently-shrink-140333912.html

Subsidence isn't just an aesthetic problem; bridges and highways can sink and crack in dangerous ways, and flood-control structures can be compromised. In the San Joaquin Valley, the sinking Earth has destroyed the outer shell around thousands of privately drilled wells.
 
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  • #17
OCR said:
Me on the Dun Mountain Fire...
Lol... actually, it was the Dunn Mountain Fire...... :redface:

Oh, and another picture, our transport and dozer, plus other equipment, at the Skibstad Fire ... just waiting for a little storm to blow over.

Dozer at Sklbstad.JPG


Carry on... :oldsmile:
 
  • #18
Tonight, there were some raindrops for about 1 minute, if that. The cloud-to-cloud lightning was pretty cool. We really need rain. I can't see the hills for the smoke.

Forecast - Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 2am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 62. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

.ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. FREQUENT LIGHTNING...MAINLY ALONG THE CORES OF
THUNDERSTORMS HAS OCCURRED AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. NOT MUCH RAIN HAS BEEN REPORTED WITH THESE
STORMS. FREQUENT LIGHTING COULD SPARK MULTIPLE FIRES IN A SHORT
TIME.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR ABUNDANT
LIGHTNING FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES ...

Record wildfire in Washington gets international, local help
http://news.yahoo.com/im-alive-people-survey-damage-washington-fire-072854050.html
The U.S. is in the midst of one of its worst fire seasons on record with some 11,600 square miles scorched so far. It's only the sixth-worst going back to 1960, but it's the most acreage burned by this date in a decade, so the ranking is sure to rise.
 
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  • #19
Dry thundershowers in the forecast. Maybe some rain on the weekend - I hope.
 
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http://news.yahoo.com/smoke-grounds-aircraft-battling-washington-wildfires-083016239.html
More than 1,150 square miles of Washington have burned, nearly the size of Rhode Island, the state Department of Natural Resources said.
 
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  • #21
Oregon fires are so massive the military is being called into help.
http://www.kptv.com/story/29898398/canyon-creek-fire-grows-oregon-national-guardsmen-join-the-fight
The war against the fire is now being fought in part by the military. Thursday was the first full day on the fire lines across the state for 125 members of the Oregon National Guard
icon1.png
, many of them deployed to the Canyon Creek Fire.

Sgt. Joe Gassner, one of guardsmen who have been deployed to this fire, told Fox 12 Thursday via phone that troops are doing well, the motivation is high, and they're excited to help Oregonians.[/qoute]

http://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/photographs/4495/
http://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/article/4495/28123/
A small contingency from Great Britain is visiting the Canyon Creek Complex to learn how the United States manages large complex incidents. Five career firefighters from Hampshire and the Isle of Wight, working for England’s Hampshire Fire and Rescue Service, are being chaperoned by Sister’s Fire District. They are here to see operational tactics first hand and learn about the Incident Command System (a standardized approach to the command, control, and coordination of emergency response providing a common hierarchy within which responders from multiple agencies can be effective). England has one firefighting organization that manages all of their fires, structural and wildland, compared to America’s multiple agency approach.
 
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  • #22
Today was overcast with high clouds, and a brief reprieve from the smoke from various forest/brush fires. Certainly it could be worse, as the folks nearest the fires are experiencing.

Forecast tonight - Patchy Smoke

Forecast Saturday (tomorrow) - Patchy Blowing Dust and WindyHow bad is it near the fires? Well, In A Remote Part Of Washington, A Scramble To Save Cattle From Flames
http://www.npr.org/sections/thesalt...rds-in-washington-state-s-okanogan-complex-fi
 
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  • #23
Huge Windstorm Coming At Worst Possible Time For Fires
http://nwpr.org/post/huge-windstorm-coming-worst-possible-time-fires

I heard this morning that the Okanogan complex fire just became the largest fire in Washington state history. This is the fire that claimed the lives of three firefighters who crashed while trying to outrun the flames.

The complex of fires had consumed 304,782 acres as of August 30. The destruction has outgrown the Carlton Complex (2014), which had been the largest wildfire in state history.
http://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/article/4534/28596/
 
  • #24
The windstorm that blew in over the weekend sure didn't help with the fire fighting efforts.

Here's a site I've been using to monitor these fires. Scroll down to the map...it doesn't look too bad. But then zoom in, until you see the fire perimeters. It's jaw-dropping.

http://gacc.nifc.gov/nwcc/information/firemap.aspx
 
  • #25
Woman killed, 400 homes destroyed by California wildfire
http://news.yahoo.com/thousands-flee-california-wildfire-homes-flames-034133318.html
LAKEPORT, Calif. (Reuters) - A Northern California wildfire ranked as the most destructive to hit the drought-stricken U.S. West this year has killed one woman and burned some 400 homes to the ground, fire officials said on Monday, and they expect the property toll to climb.

The so-called Valley Fire erupted on Saturday and spread quickly to a cluster of small communities in the hills and valleys north of Napa County's wine-producing region, forcing the evacuation of thousands of residents.

I could smell the scent of burning brush in the air yesterday, while I was hiking. I couldn't see any haze though. A colleague told me that there was a brush fire about 60 miles north of where I was hiking. The wind carried the smoke as it dissipated.
 
  • #26
More than 1,000 homes destroyed by 2 California fires
http://news.yahoo.com/heat-spurs-fears-deadly-california-wildfires-could-revive-054526715.html

MIDDLETOWN, Calif. (AP) — The tally of homes destroyed by two massive Northern California wildfires topped 1,000 Saturday after authorities doing damage assessments in the Sierra Nevada foothills counted another 250 houses destroyed by flames still threatening thousands of more structures.
 
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  • #27
I made many visits to friends living in San Luis Obispo (SLO) back in the mid-late 80s, and as someone who grew up in the northeast, I was shocked how dry California was inland, away from the coast.

I wonder if it would be practical to build a continent wide water transport system, on the scale of our Interstate Highway network, that could transport water from regions with excess rainfall (like the southeast in recent days), to the western part of the nation, currently experiencing severe drought?
 
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1. What causes severe drought in the western US?

Severe drought in the western US is primarily caused by a combination of natural climate patterns and human activities. The region is naturally prone to drought due to its geographic location and topography, with low precipitation levels and high temperatures. Human activities such as agriculture, urbanization, and water usage also contribute to drought by altering the natural water cycle and depleting water resources.

2. How do severe droughts affect the environment?

Severe droughts can have a devastating impact on the environment. They can lead to decreased soil moisture, which can result in reduced plant growth and increased susceptibility to wildfires. Droughts can also cause water shortages, leading to the death of fish and other aquatic species. Additionally, droughts can contribute to air pollution and worsen air quality, as dry conditions make it easier for dust and other particles to become airborne.

3. Are severe droughts and wildfires linked?

Yes, severe droughts and wildfires are closely linked. Droughts create dry conditions that increase the risk of wildfires, as there is less moisture in the soil and vegetation. This makes it easier for fires to spread and more difficult to control. Additionally, droughts can also lead to an increase in lightning strikes, which are a common cause of wildfires.

4. How do scientists predict and monitor severe drought and wildfires?

Scientists use a variety of methods to predict and monitor severe drought and wildfires in the western US. This includes monitoring weather patterns and climate data, using satellite imagery to track vegetation health and soil moisture, and analyzing historical data to identify trends. Scientists also use computer models to simulate potential scenarios and predict future drought and wildfire risks.

5. What can be done to mitigate the impacts of severe drought and wildfires?

To mitigate the impacts of severe drought and wildfires, it is important to implement sustainable water management practices, such as reducing water usage and increasing water efficiency. Prescribed burns, which are controlled fires used to reduce fuel for potential wildfires, can also help prevent catastrophic fires. Additionally, promoting sustainable land use practices and reducing greenhouse gas emissions can help mitigate the effects of climate change, which is a major factor in the frequency and severity of drought and wildfires in the western US.

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