Solar Activity and Space Weather Update thread

[Stavros Kiri]

Mon. March 30, 2026
X-CLASS SOLAR FLARE AND CME: NASA's Artemis rocket might be launching into a geomagnetic storm. This morning, an X-class solar flare hurled a fast and massive CME into space. It is expected to make contact with Earth on March 31st, sparking geomagnetic storms on the night before the Moon rocket's launch window opens.

​

Above: An X1.5-class solar flare on March 30, 2026. Credit: Solar Dynamics Observatory​

.

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Space Weather News for April 3, 2026

ARTEMIS IS FLYING THROUGH A STRONG GEOMAGNETIC STORM: A strong G3-class geomagnetic storm is underway on April 3rd following a CME impact. NASA's Artemis mission is experiencing this storm inside Earth's magnetotail--a complex space weather environment that few humans have encountered before.

​

Above:​ This is the CME that just hit the Earth-Moon system​

.

 

[Stavros Kiri]

For April 8, 2026 (and for current days and abead ...)

Wake up before dawn to see Comet PANSTARRS (C/2025 R3) brightening in the morning sky.

A NAKED-EYE COMET IS COMING: There's a comet in the morning sky, and you may be able to see it with your unaided eyes. Comet PANSTARRS (C/2025 R3) just crossed the threshold of naked eye visibility as it approaches the sun for a close encounter on April 19-20.

​

Above: Comet PANSTARRS photographed on April 7, 2026, by Dan Bartlett of June Lake, CA

 

[Stavros Kiri]

April 24, 2026

X-Class SOLAR FLARE SHATTERS THE QUIET: The sun has been mostly quiet for weeks. That ended today with a powerful X2.4-class solar flare. The unexpected explosion caused a radio blackout in the Pacific Ocean and hurled a CME into space. More solar flares appear to be in the offing this weekend.

​

Above: An X2.4-class solar flare on April 24, 2026. Credit: Solar Dynamics Observatory​

.

 

[Borg]

@davenn I didn't see this app in a quick search of the thread. Enjoy.

Live Sun and Moon Dashboard with NASA Footage
https://www.lumara-space.app/

 

[Astronuc]

Solar Cycle 25 reached its maximum in October 2024
https://www.sidc.be/article/solar-cycle-25-reached-its-maximum-october-2024
Apparently, the predictions at the beginning of SC25 for maximum were between November 2024 and March 2026 (a 17 month spread).

https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/dayssnplot

There are some relatively new features regarding Solar Activity and Solar Wind on the main page
https://www.sidc.be/

For March 18, 2026
Solar Activity

Solar flaring activity was low over the past 24 hours, with only three C-class flares identified. The brightest flare was SIDC flare 7724, a C9.7 with its peak on 17 May at 20:53 UTC. It was associated with SIDC Sunspot Group 825 (NOAA Active Region 4436, Beta magnetic configuration). The solar flaring activity is expected to be low over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares very likely and a small chance for M-class flares.No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) were observed in the last 24 hours. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux, as measured by the GOES-19 satellite, was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is likely to remain so in the next 24 hours. During the past 24 hours the greater than 2 MeV electron flux as, measured by GOES 19, was above the 1000 pfu alert threshold with a peak value of 5900 pfu on 17 May at 20:53 UTC. It is expected to remain above the alert threshold in the next 24 hours.The electron fluence was at moderate in the past 24 hours and it is expected to remain at those levels in the next 24 hours.

Solar Wind

The geomagnetic conditions of the past 24 hours were both globally and locally at quiet levels (NOAA Kp 2 to 2+ and K BEL 1 to 2), with the exception of locally unsettled levels for a brief period of time (K BEL 3, 17 May 12:00-15:00 UTC). In the next 24 hours it is likely that they will increase to unsettled levels, as a glancing blow from SIDC CME 656 is expected to arrive at Earth. The effect of the High Speed Stream (HSS) that arrived on 15 May waned during the past 24 hours and currently the Solar Wind (SW) conditions feature a slow regime. The SW speed dropped from almost 700 to 500 km/s, the interplanetary magnetic field (B) reached a maximum value of 4 nT, and its North-South component (Bz) varied from -4 to 4 nT. A glancing blow from a Coronal Mass Ejection (SIDC CME 656) is predicted to arrive in the next 24 hours, however, no significant impact is expected from it.

1 pfu (proton flux unit) = particles/cm²-s-sr, a measure of proton flux

SWPC currently forecasts the probability of S1 (Minor Radiation Storm) occurrence as part of our 3-day forecast and forecast discussion products and issues a warning for an expected S1 or higher event; as well as a warning for when the 100 MeV proton level is expected to reach 1 pfu. Additionally, SWPC issues alerts for when each NOAA Space Weather Scale Radiation Storm level is reached (S1-S5) and/or when the 100 MeV protons reach 1 pfu.

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/solar-radiation-storm

From the Space Weather Prediction Center, NOAA
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/report-and-forecast-solar-and-geophysical-activity

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 137 Issued at 2200Z on 17 May 2026

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (18 May, 19 May,
20 May).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 734 km/s at 16/2108Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6117 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (18 May, 19
May) and quiet levels on day three (20 May).

III. Event probabilities 18 May-20 May
Class M 40/45/45
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 May 104
Predicted 18 May-20 May 105/110/115
90 Day Mean 17 May 124

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 May 019/034
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 May 011/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 May-20 May 015/021-018/021-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 May-20 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/35/20
Minor Storm 30/30/05
Major-severe storm 05/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/10/20
Minor Storm 25/25/30
Major-severe storm 60/60/25

 

[Stavros Kiri]

MONSTER SUNSPOT VISIBLE FROM MARS: One of the biggest sunspots in years is crossing the farside of the sun, crackling with X-class solar flares. Europe's Solar Orbiter and NASA's Perseverance rover on Mars can both see it. The behemoth will rotate toward Earth in 5 or 6 days, putting our planet in the strike zone.​

Above: This huge farside sunspot is crackling with X-class solar flares.​

 

[davenn]

MONSTER SUNSPOT VISIBLE FROM MARS: One of the biggest sunspots in years is crossing the farside of the sun, crackling with X-class solar flares. Europe's Solar Orbiter and NASA's Perseverance rover on Mars can both see it. The behemoth will rotate toward Earth in 5 or 6 days, putting our planet in the strike zone.​

View attachment 371758​

Above: This huge farside sunspot is crackling with X-class solar flares.​

and sadly, by the time it rotated around to our side, it was just shadow of its former self

 

[Stavros Kiri]

and sadly, by the time it rotated around to our side, it was just shadow of its former self

View attachment 372055

Indeed, unfortunately! ...

Now, here's an interesting topic (posted on spaceweather.com on May 4, 2026) :

"ARE WE OVERDUE FOR A SUPERFLARE? We've all heard of X-class solar flares--powerful explosions on the sun that pepper satellites with energetic particles and trigger great geomagnetic storms. They can be scary. But not as scary as a new category of solar flare being discussed by researchers: the "S-flare"--a solar superflare stronger than X10.

A new paper published in the Journal of Geophysical Research suggests we may be overdue for one.

During the current solar cycle, Solar Cycle 25, Earth has not yet experienced an S-flare. That's a little unusual, according to researchers led by V.M. Velasco Herrera of the National Autonomous University of Mexico. The team looked at 50 years of data from Earth-orbiting satellites. Among 95,627 solar flares, they found 37 Earth-directed S-flares. Every solar cycle since the 1970s has produced one--except Solar Cycle 25.

There are some clues to when the next S-flare might happen. In the 50-year dataset, the researchers found two underlying rhythms: 1.7 years and 7 years, both linked to magneto-Rossby waves inside the sun. When both rhythms swing into their positive phase at the same time, the probability of an S-flare spikes.

Right: An S-class solar flare (X45) on Nov. 4, 2003. [more]

According to those rhythms, we're exiting a high-risk S-flare window now: mid-2025 through mid-2026. The next high-risk window opens in early 2027 and lasts about 6 months.

In May 2024, Europe's Solar Orbiter detected two possible S-flares on the farside of the sun. Their intensity (with significant error bars) was X11.1 and X16.5. The sun fired the gun; we just happened to be standing behind the target.

Maybe next time. Stay tuned for updates as the 2027 window approaches."

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Space Weather News for June 3, 2026

STRONG GEOMAGNETIC STORM WARNING: NOAA forecasters are predicting strong geomagnetic storms this week as a rare 'anti-Hale' sunspot peppers Earth with strong solar flares. The X-class and near-X-class explosions are currently happening every 6 to 8 hours with CMEs expected to reach our planet beginning June 5th. Mid-latitude auroras are possible after the CMEs arrive.

Above: Earth-directed solar flares on June 2-3, 2026​

.

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Space Weather News for June 6, 2026

ANOTHER CME IS COMING: The sun just launched another CME toward Earth. Minor (G1) to strong (G3) geomagnetic storms are possible when it arrives on June 8th. If the storm becomes strong, naked-eye auroras could spread across much of Europe, Canada, and at least a dozen northern-tier US states.

Above: This is the explosion on June 6th that hurled the CME toward Earth.​

-----------

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Daily Sun: 27 Jun 26

Expand: labels | no labels
Sunspot 4478 has a 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field that harbors energy for X-class solar flares. Credit: NASA/SDO

...Visible even e.g. with just eclipse glasses (i.e. no magnification required – caution for eyes though)

 

[Ibix]

So I had a few minutes, and some cheap binoculars, a mobile phone stand, some cardboard and a phone camera. Here's an image, distorted because I didn't line the "screen" up at right angles to the binoculars, and chromatic aberrated (did I mention they were cheap binoculars?). It's also inverted with respect to @Stavros Kiri's image. But you can indeed see the sunspots even with such a terrible setup.

 

[Stavros Kiri]

June 30, 2026

EARTH-DIRECTED X-FLARE AND CME: Solar activity is at high levels following multiple explosions in new sunspot AR4479. The strongest so far, an X1.1-class solar flare on June 30th, hurled a CME directly toward Earth. This will bring a chance of geomagnetic storms and auroras later this week.

​

​ Above: Today's X1.1-class solar flare recorded by NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory with an inset picture of sunspot AR4479 (Credit: Sylvain Weiller)

July 2, 2026

4TH OF JULY AURORA WATCH: Multiple CMEs are heading for Earth, prompting an aurora watch for the 4th of July holiday weekend. The CMEs were launched by a series of strong solar flares this week, including one X-class eruption. If they all hit, they could spark moderate to strong geomagnetic storms in the nights ahead.

 

[Stavros Kiri]

July 4 & 5, 2026:

"MIDSUMMER GEOMAGNETIC STORM: Midsummer auroras are rare, but on the night of July 3/4 they blanketed the USA. The display was caused by a CME strike, which sparked a strong G3-class geomagnetic storm.

"The auroras were visible with the naked eye alone, a really strong and active display," reports Aaron Watson, who photographed dancing curtains of red above the West Elk Mountains of Colorado:

"I set up this timelapse on my camera and watched with just my eyes," he adds. "I loved watching the pillars of diffuse light grow and drift over the horizon with some nice moments of jaw dropping awe... wow!"

We've received aurora reports from New Mexico, Nebraska, Texas, Kentucky, Utah, Colorado, Washington, Pennsylvania, New York, Idaho, Virginia, Wyoming, Ohio, Oregon, Nevada, California, Arizona--and almost every northern-tier state near the US-Canadian border.

It is unusual to have such a strong display so close to the summer solstice. Two reasons: (1) Short summer nights narrow the observing window. (2) Auroras dislike solstices. The same Russell-McPherron Effect that boosts auroras around equinoxes also suppresses auroras around solstices. Yin-yang.

It took an "X-class CME" to overcome these obstacles.The storm cloud that hit us on July 3rd was launched by an X1-class solar flare three days earlier."

&

"The display was caused by a CME strike on July 3rd, which was hurled in our direction by an X1-class solar flare three days earlier. After the impact, observers in more than 30 US states reported seeing auroras.
Holy smokes!" says Roger Hill, who photographed the geomagnetic glow through an electrical storm over Bennett, Colorado (+39.8N latitude):

"The geomagnetic storm became strong just as a cluster of severe thunderstorms formed east of our house," says Hill. "The result? A *really cool* photo-op." "

So, it finally happened ... (and as 4th of July gift, perhaps ...).