Space Stuff and Launch Info

[Filip Larsen]

Eric Berger at arstechnica has collected some nice shots in his write-up of the launch:
https://arstechnica.com/science/202...n-heavy-launch-delivered-spectacular-imagery/

 

[mfb]

The Space Shuttle Columbia disaster happened 20 years ago (February 1, 2003), killing its crew of 7.

The damage happened during launch and the foam strike was noticed but the magnitude of the damage was not discovered (or even investigated) while the orbiter was in space. It's not clear if there would have been a reasonable rescue option however, even if they had known about it. This detailed article describes a potential rescue mission with another Shuttle that was studied as a hypothetical mission after the accident.
Shuttle missions after Columbia always had such a rescue mission as option available - with an extended ISS stay or with a launch soon afterwards where that was not possible. Russia follows a similar approach with Soyuz right now - MS-23 will launch to return the crew of the damaged MS-22 while the crew stays on the ISS.

 

[Redbelly98]

This is from late December, but Eric Berger of Ars Technica had a nice write-up on the "Top US launch companies of 2022—The Ars Technica power ranking"

The top 3 were 1. Space X (of course), 2. ULA, and 3. Rocket Lab. I guess ULA beat out Rocket Lab based on the much higher capacity of Atlas V over Electron -- the two companies had a similar number of total launches:

Eric Berger wrote:
Please note this is a subjective list, although hard metrics such as total launches, tonnage to orbit, success rate, and more were all important factors in the decision. Also, the focus is on what each company accomplished in 2022, not what they might do in the future.

 

[mfb]

The link doesn't look right. Here is the article.

Falcon 9 has made its 200th flight.

Virgin Orbit was #5 in that list but had a launch failure since then, making their financial situation even more problematic. Richard Branson injected some more money.

ABL's first launch attempt of its RS-1 rocket failed in January.

Out of the "also considered": From Stoke Space we now have a one hour factory and test stand tour with Tim Dodd (Everyday Astronaut) discussing tons of different aspects of the rocket they develop.

 

[Redbelly98]

The link doesn't look right. Here is the article.
.
.
.
Out of the "also considered": From Stoke Space we now have a one hour factory and test stand tour with Tim Dodd (Everyday Astronaut) discussing tons of different aspects of the rocket they develop.

Well, I botched that link. Fixed now, thank you.

I'll watch the Tim Dodd video when I have an hour to kill. Reading the article version, they don't give a payload mass -- maybe that gets mentioned in the video? At 30 m height x 4 m diameter, the closest comparable-sized existing rocket I found is Antares (42 m x 3.9 m), which has 8 tonnes to LEO capacity. So probably slightly less capacity ... or maybe more-than-slightly less, given that it'll be reusable. But it should be significantly more than the 1.3 tonnes of Relativity's Terran 1 (35 m x 2.3 m).

Edit: So, maybe 3-6 tonnes to LEO is my best guess.

 

[mfb]

I don't remember hearing a specific number in the video but it should be in the few tonnes range. It's possible the company doesn't even have a reliable estimate internally as they are still working on the first stage engine design. Payload fractions of fully reusable rockets are small, so even small design differences can have a large impact.

Speaking of fully reusable rockets: Super Heavy static fire planned for tomorrow. The last major test before a launch attempt.

The first Japanese H3 is being prepared for a launch next week, Soyuz-MS 23 will launch February 20 (without crew) and Dragon Crew-6 will launch February 26 (with crew).

 

[Redbelly98]

Super Heavy successfully ran 31 of 33 engines in today's test. Elon says that's enough to get to orbit, according to an update to this article from Eric Berger:

At around 3:15 pm local time in South Texas, SpaceX ignited its Super Heavy rocket for a "full duration" test of its Raptor engines. According to SpaceX founder Elon Musk, the launch team turned off one engine just prior to ignition, and another stopped itself. Still, he said 31 of 33 engines would have provided enough thrust to reach orbit.

About that Japanese rocket, always cool when a new rocket has a debut launch. Hoping Relativity Space can launch RS1 sometime this spring.

 

[mfb]

The Russian Progress MS-21 has developed a leak.
Not to be confused with the Soyuz MS-22, also docked to the ISS at the moment, with a leak.
Not to be confused with the Soyuz MS-09 in 2018, which also had a leak.

The Progress was already loaded with waste in preparation for its scheduled departure in a week, so the ISS crew closed the hatch and there is no danger to the crew. Russia and NASA are trying to understand where the leak comes from.
What's going on with Russia and leaking spacecraft?

Edit: A coolant leak, just like for MS-22.

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The Starship static fire only had the engines running at just 50%. For takeoff they will run at 90% (and we can expect 33 engines instead of 31), almost doubling the thrust.

Looks like there was some minor damage to concrete farther outside but the new concrete right under the launch pad seems to be in a good shape. We should get pictures soon. The launch will have more thrust but the rocket will move up quickly so the effective duration is shorter.

 

[Redbelly98]

About the payload mass of that Stoke Space rocket being developed . . .

Redbelly98:
So, maybe 3-6 tonnes to LEO is my best guess.

I don't remember hearing a specific number in the video but it should be in the few tonnes range. It's possible the company doesn't even have a reliable estimate internally as they are still working on the first stage engine design. Payload fractions of fully reusable rockets are small, so even small design differences can have a large impact.

Okay, I found a number (1.65 tonnes) in an Eric Berger article from last October, which I just read this morning. Smaller than what I/we had guessed, but comparable or slightly more than the current / soon-to-launch rockets from Firefly, Relativity, and ABL.

 

[mfb]

H3 had a first launch attempt that was aborted just before liftoff.
H3 is replacing the similar H-II family but it should only cost half as much.

For a discussion elsewhere I summed payload mass to orbit (from here) in 2022 in tonnes:
SpaceX: 629
China*: 178
Russia*: 70
United Launch Alliance: 44
Arianespace: 34
US*: 24 (SLS launch)
Northrop Grumman: 16
India*: 9
Others: 10

*the respective government organizations

Sum: 1014
Likely the first year in history we exceeded 1000 tonnes.

The abridged version:
SpaceX: 629
Rest of the world: 385

 

[mfb]

Soyuz MS-23 launched and docked with the ISS, so everyone has a ride down again.

Dragon Crew-6 will launch in around 3.5 hours, the crew is on the way to the rocket. Live coverage:
NASA
SpaceX
NASASpaceflight
This will be the last flight of the original commercial crew contract but NASA already booked 8 more.
Boeing's Starliner is planned to make its first crewed test flight in April.

On its other Florida launch pad, SpaceX is preparing the first launch of "v2" Starlink satellites. They are significantly larger so Falcon 9 will only carry 22 instead of ~53, but each satellite is reported to have ~4x more capacity, so capacity per launch increases. In California yet another Starlink launch is in preparation.
If all three launches happen this month then SpaceX will break its record for launches in a month (7->8), despite February being a short month. The current record of 7 launches in a month was set in December last year, and matched again in January.

Edit: Crew-6 launch attempt has been scrubbed shortly before T=0 because of some concerns with the ignition system, will likely try again tomorrow. First time a crewed Falcon 9 mission was delayed by a technical issue - there had been delays from weather or people entering the restricted area in the past.
No new monthly launch record for SpaceX then, but they could still get 7 launches again (California flight today, Crew-6 tomorrow) and start March with a launch on the first day.

 

[mfb]

Starlink v2 deployment and a nice view of the upper stage in orbit.

Crew-6 has been moved to March 2, 5:34 UTC (evening/night of March 1 for most of the US).

Terran 1's maiden flight is planned for March 8.

 

[mfb]

Crew-6 is on the way to the ISS.

SpaceX has now landed 101 boosters in a row successfully. Even for the easier launches this would be the second-longest success streak in spaceflight history (after Falcon 9 launches: 179 and counting), surpassing Delta II's 100 successful flights in a row.

 

[mfb]

H3 had a first launch attempt that was aborted just before liftoff.

Liftoff and nice first-stage flight of H3, but the second stage failed to ignite.
https://spaceflightnow.com/2023/03/06/h3-tf1-mission-status-center/

Terran 1 is still on track for a launch in 1.5 days: Livestream starting in 37 hours.
First mostly 3D-printed rocket, with a chance to become the first methane-burning rocket to reach orbit (methalox race).

 

[DennisN]

Want to try docking with the International Space Station?
Try the SpaceX Docking Simulator online here : https://iss-sim.spacex.com/

 

[mfb]

Terran-1 is still on track for a launch attempt in 54 minutes.



Edit: Scrubbed because of some issues with the upper stage fuel temperature. Next attempt on March 11.

Edit2: Artemis 2 is now planned to launch November 2024. During Artemis 1 the ablative heat shield of Orion lost more material than expected, but still within acceptable limits.

 

[Dullard]

Delta II's 100 successful flights in a row

Reference: https://www.physicsforums.com/threads/space-stuff-and-launch-info.879196/page-32#post-6862818

I vividly remember the day that streak ended. Open-Loop hydraulic systems are great, but an unexpected oscillation will (demonstrably) use up all of your hydraulic fluid in a hurry.

 

[mfb]

That streak ended with the retirement of the rocket.

 

[Dullard]

That streak ended with the retirement of the rocket.

I guess that's true. oops. The first launch of it's successor is what I was talking about. Delta II, Delta III... They all look the same when you're the passenger.

 

[.Scott]

They all look the same when you're the passenger.

Hmmm... If you've been a Delta rocket passenger, I think you just outed yourself as an AI.

 

[Dullard]

Figuratively. I worked on the payloads.

 

[Borg]

Spacesuit for return to the Moon unveiled

 

[Redbelly98]

Couple of interesting launches coming up this week.

March 22, 4:45 a.m. EDT: Rocket Lab will attempt an ocean recovery of their Electron rocket.

March 22, 10 pm - March 23, 1 am EDT: Relativity Space plans another attempt at the maiden launch of their Terran 1 rocket. This would be the first methalox rocket to reach orbit, if successful.

 

[Redbelly98]

Spacesuit for return to the Moon unveiled

... previous plans to send female astronauts to space have been scuppered by the lack of spacesuits in their size.

Little perplexed by this statement. Why were they unable to make additional suits in an appropriate size?

 

[mfb]

Hakuto-R has entered lunar orbit. The next Japanese mission attempting a soft landing (in about a month).

How many suits do you want to store on the ISS?

But just days before Anne McClain and Christina Koch were due to depart on the walk, Nasa realised they didn't have two spacesuits in the correct size for both women, and McClain had to be replaced by colleague Nick Hague.

Artemis III and IV can launch suits on Starship and both surface crew members will get their own custom suit, no problem there.

March 22, 4:45 a.m. EDT: Rocket Lab will attempt an ocean recovery of their Electron rocket.

Now March 24

 

[mfb]

A test version of the upper stage of Vulcan failed in a ground test.

Keeping you posted: During Qual testing of Centaur V structural article at MSFC, the hardware experienced an anomaly. This is is why we thoroughly & rigorously exercise every possible condition on the ground before flight. Investigation is underway. Vulcan will fly when complete.
[...]
Extreme structural load testing of various worst possible conditions

It's likely the test conditions were beyond the conditions expected for a flight, but it was still an unexpected failure so it could delay the launch of the flight hardware.

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SpaceX has launched 21 times so far this year and another mission is scheduled to fly in three hours, which means most likely[/size] 22 launches in the first quarter. Not too far behind the pace needed for 100 launches this year.

Here is a graph comparing different years. Since 2020, each year was clearly beating all previous years.

 

[.Scott]

This is Bizarre:
As described in many news articles including this one, Kazakstan has grounded Roscosmos until Russia pays up $30M in Baikonur Cosmodrome related debt.

Perhaps we need to start a Roscosmos Go-Fund-Me site.

More seriously, I notice that this Cosmodrome is not listed among Kazakstan's World Heritage sites. Nor is it on Kazakstan's "tentative" list.

 

[mfb]

It's only affecting some future rocket plans as far as I understand, normal Soyuz launches are unaffected.

The US doesn't have any spaceflight-related World Heritage Sites either. These seem to focus on older things.

SpaceX's 22nd launch this year was delayed twice, now it's planned for April 1.

 

[mfb]

The Artemis II crew has been announced:

Commander Reid Wiseman - previously flew one half-year mission to the ISS in 2014 (Soyuz)
Pilot Victor Glover - previously flew one half-year mission to the ISS in 2020 (first operational Dragon flight)
Mission Specialist 1 Christina Koch - almost a year at the ISS in 2019/2020 (Soyuz)
Mission Specialist 2 Jeremy Hansen - first flight for him (from Canada)

I didn't expect them to include someone without flight experience, but the crew will always stay together so the risk from Hansen getting sick in space is probably limited.

 

[mfb]

A Chinese start-up launched their first rocket, Tianlong-2, and it was successful. 2 tonnes to low Earth orbit, very large for a start-up. News article

Starship has a very preliminary launch date: April 10. In under a week.
The ship has been stacked on the booster again.

 

[mfb]

No Starship on April 10, now no earlier than April 17 (and not expected to fly then, either).

A test version of the upper stage of Vulcan failed in a ground test.

The ULA "anomaly" turned out to be a significant explosion.

Article

 

[mfb]

Four of the largest rockets are currently on their launch pads (Tweet with images):

* Ariane 5 with JUICE, a European mission to Jupiter, launching in 1.5 hours (live coverage)
* Delta IV Heavy with NROL-68, a US military satellite (April xx)
* Falcon Heavy with ViaSat-3 Americas, a communication satellite (April 18)
* Starship/Super Heavy without payload, for its test flight (April 17-x)

SpaceX is now aiming at a flight on April 17, pending regulatory approval. They also created a website.

 

[.Scott]

Before a Starship launch, we should see a TFR (Temporary Flight Restriction) issued by the FAA.
It should be issued about a full day before the airspace over Starbase is put under control - so more than a day before a launch.

The FAA TFR's are posted at https://tfr.faa.gov/tfr2/list.jsp.

If you visit that web page, see near the top of that page that there are dropdown menus for "Center", "State", and "Type". The center will be "Houston", the State will be "Texas" and the "Type" will be "Space Operations". Suggest you select "Space Operations", then click the word "GO".

Currently, only one is listed for the Brownsville area - for activity on March 31st.

 

[mfb]

The beach will be closed on Monday April 17 for "spaceflight activities", with April 18 and 19 as backup dates.

Tory Bruno (CEO of ULA) shared a better video of the "anomaly" on Twitter. A hydrogen leak in a closed volume, hydrogen accumulated and ignited:

 

[.Scott]

TFR for SpaceX "Space Operations"
For Monday, April 17, 2023 1200-1505UTC (8:00-11:05am local time)

Issue Date :​	April 14, 2023 at 1044 UTC
Location :​	Brownsville, Texas
Beginning Date and Time :​	April 17, 2023 at 1200 UTC
Ending Date and Time :​	April 17, 2023 at 1505 UTC
Reason for NOTAM :​	Space Operations Area
Type :​	Space Operations
Replaced NOTAM(s) :​	N/A
Pilots May Contact :​	Houston (ZHU) ARTCC, 281-230-5560

 

[.Scott]

Tory Bruno (CEO of ULA) shared a better video of the "anomaly" on Twitter. A hydrogen leak in a closed volume, hydrogen accumulated and ignited:

This explosion was on March 29.
You can see flames cooking the frame as the video starts - well before the explosion.

 

[.Scott]

There is now an identical SpaceX TFR for Tuesday.

 

[mfb]

Interesting Tweets from Eric Berger:

Quite obviously this [launch license on Thursday] did not happen. However, generally, there remains confidence that a license is forthcoming for SpaceX when it is needed—i.e. before 7 am CT on Monday morning. A license could be issued any time, any day, including weekends.

SpaceX could literally launch within minutes of receiving a launch license from the FAA. Every indication from the company and FAA (i.e. road closures, flight restrictions) indicate that planning moving toward a Monday morning launch attempt.

SpaceX and the FAA are working together so they'll have an internal target date for that launch license. Looks like it's Monday morning or earlier. Getting a launch license with the rocket already in the fueling process would be a very interesting move.

 

[mfb]

Starship has a launch license
SpaceX confirms Monday for its first launch attempt

The launch window opens 7 am CT, 12:00 UTC, or 2 days 7 hours after this comment, and goes for three hours.

If the launch happens next week then SpaceX might make four launches within 7 days for the first time: A Falcon 9 rideshare mission on Saturday, Falcon Heavy on Tuesday, a Starlink mission on Wednesday, and Starship.

 

[.Scott]

SpaceX has now reserved airspace for possible launches on Monday through Friday of this coming week.

 

[dlgoff]

Is this a good site to watch the SpaceX launch tomorrow 4/17/23?
https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-orbital-launch-test-flight-livestream

 

[mfb]

I'm not sure what they are going to show but I would prefer the stream from SpaceX. More options in the Starship thread

 

[dlgoff]

I'm not sure what they are going to show but I would prefer the stream from SpaceX. More options in the Starship thread

Thank you.

 

[mfb]

Hakuto-R will try to land on the Moon in a bit over 24 hours. Livestream will be here.
If successful, it will make Japan the fourth country to softly land on the Moon (after the Soviet Union, the US and China, and failed attempts by India and Israel).

Six new missions with landers/rovers are planned to launch later this year.

A Falcon Heavy launch is planned for Wednesday 23:24 UTC. Falcon Heavy will fly fully expendable for the first time to deliver the satellite directly to geostationary orbit - no booster landings.

 

[mfb]

Hakuto-R will try to land on the Moon in a bit over 24 hours.

Lost signal shortly before the planned landing.

 

[berkeman]

Lost signal shortly before the planned landing.

It seemed weird that they pre-announced that they would lose the comm signal before the landing, and should re-acquire it shortly after landing. Why would they anticipate losing the signal right before landing? There were obviously no plasma effects like in Earth re-entry. I don't think I've heard of an "anticipated comms blackout" during the last few meters of landing on the Moon" before...

 

[mfb]

Could be related to the spacecraft orientation. Maybe it needs to re-orient its antenna after landing?
They are working on a second mission already.

Unrelated news: China has announced they lost communication with their Mars rover Zhurong

More Moon missions: Astrobotic will launch its third lander on Falcon Heavy in 2026. The first one will launch on Vulcan's maiden flight, the second one was already booked on a Falcon Heavy.

 

[mfb]

Fairing reentry video from the Falcon Heavy launch. Fastest and hottest reentry so far as all boosters were expended:

 

[mfb]

Vast, a company of a cryptocurrency billionaire, plans to build a commercial space station. We'll see how well that works, but at least they have funding. They now have launch contracts, too: One Falcon 9 flight to launch a first station module and a Falcon 9 / Dragon flight to visit it. No earlier than August 2025 and with delays basically guaranteed, but it's the first company with a launch contract.

Axiom-2, the second fully commercial mission to the ISS, is now scheduled to launch May 21.

 

[mfb]

Falcon rockets have achieved 200 successful missions in a row. This streak includes all 6 Falcon Heavy launches and all 166 launches of the only operational Falcon 9 version (Block 5), plus 28 launches of older Falcon 9 versions.
If we only consider rocket versions SpaceX uses today: They have made 171 flights and never failed. This is 5+166 as the first FH flight used older hardware.[/size]

As a related milestone, we can expect 200 consecutive Falcon 9 successes in June.