Space Stuff and Launch Info

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A defunct satellite and an old rocket stage passed each other within tens of meters 1.5 hours ago. The latest prediction before the potential collision was a closest approach of 25 +- 18 meters and a few percent collision chance. One of the satellites has been tracked again after the event and there is no indication of a collision.

Tweet before the event
Tweet after the event

At 1000 km altitude this could have created thousands of debris particles for decades to centuries.

 

[mfb]

Morgan Stanley expects SpaceX will be a $100 billion company thanks to Starlink and Starship.
This is almost twice their previous estimate from just 3 months ago. It is dominated by Starlink (~$80 billion). In the last three months SpaceX has expanded the size of the Starlink constellation rapidly, and it has started the private beta which demonstrated both high bandwidth and low latency.

As comparison, Boeing's market cap is 95 billion.

 

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and it has started the private beta

Well that got outdated quickly. They started the public beta.

SpaceX prices Starlink satellite internet service at $99 per month, according to e-mail

“Expect to see data speeds vary from 50Mb/s to 150Mb/s and latency from 20ms to 40ms over the next several months as we enhance the Starlink system. There will also be brief periods of no connectivity at all.”

[...] initial Starlink service is priced at $99 a month – plus a $499 upfront cost to order the Starlink Kit.

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November 3 ULA will make its first Atlas 5 flight with a new version of solid rocket boosters ("GEM 63"). The same boosters are expected to launch crew on Starliner in the future. Launch news

 

[Tom.G]

new Falcon 9 rockets were grounded for a month

On October 2 a launch was aborted because 2 engines started early and were vibrating.

The 2 engines were removed and sent back to the SpaceX lab for evaluation.

The problem was traced to a couple small engines used to supply auxiliary power. They contained a pressure relief valve made of anodized Aluminium. The mask that was applied for the anodizing operation was not completely removed, blocking a vent hole less than 2mm diameter.

Oops!

Launch rescheduled for November 14 to carry a crew of 4 to the Space Station.

https://arstechnica.com/science/202...-for-crew-launch-explain-merlin-engine-issue/

 

[mfb]

SpaceX could launch three Starlink batches while investigating the accident - because these launches reused older boosters that were known to not have that issue. It's supporting what people have suspected for a while: Reused boosters are safer.
Crew-1 will likely be the last time SpaceX uses a new booster to launch people.

 

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Successful maiden flight of Ceres-1. More and more of these small rockets make it to orbit, but the market is not big enough to support many companies. We'll see which companies survive the next few years.

NASA and SpaceX Complete Certification of First Human-Rated Commercial Space System
The result of years of paperwork, experimental demonstrations and more. The launch of Crew-1 is currently planned for the evening of November 14 (Nov 15, 0:49 UTC) but it's quite likely weather will delay it.

China prepares Chang'e 5 for a late November launch, the first lunar sample return mission since the 1970s.

 

[Stavros Kiri]

TOTAL SOLAR ECLIPSE: One month from today, on Dec. 14th, the new Moon will pass in front of the sun, producing a total solar eclipse over Argentina and Chile. This year, eclipse chasers have more than eye safety to worry about; the eclipse is happening during a worldwide pandemic. [So the necessary rules and precautions apply ...]

 

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Dragon Crew-1 launch in half an hour.
Second private orbital spaceflight with crew, first routine flight. The crew and the spacecraft will stay at the ISS for half a year.

Propellant loading is beginning.

 

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Launch failure of Vega - the second in three flights. Two Earth observation satellites were lost after the fourth stage didn't work properly.
Vega's first 14 flights were successful - a remarkable success given the high rate of launch failures with new rockets. But now... 15/17.

Dragon arrived at the ISS, here is the crew entering the ISS.

In two days RocketLab will launch its next rocket and attempt to recover the first stage after a parachute-assisted splashdown. For reuse the stages will need to be caught with a helicopter, but recovering the stage will still help the company to learn more about the rocket. If that is successful they plan to catch a stage in mid-air soon, the long-term plan is reuse of the boosters.

 

[mfb]

Human error blamed for Vega launch failure

cables to two thrust vector control actuators were inverted

That's not just human error, that's a quality control failure, too.
On the positive side: It's not a design problem and Vega should be able to return to flight quickly. Two more flights in early 2021 are planned before Vega-C takes over mid 2021.

 

[Klystron]

Human error blamed for Vega launch failure
That's not just human error, that's a quality control failure, too.
[...]

Concur. Yet, given the two failed launches with sensitive payloads, one is curious if and how intentional sabotage; such as deliberately inverting the actuator arms, can be eliminated as the failure source instead of human error.

Carefully vetted personnel with current security checks, omnipresent video cameras in build and maintenance areas, rigorous cross-checked configuration management and pre-launch quality control procedures provide a basis for integrity. Trust and loyalty certainly counted during my tenure as a NASA contract engineer, but how do these failure investigations eliminate sabotage or malice?

 

[mfb]

Two rocket recovery news!

Electron's booster survived re-entry, deployed its parachutes, and landed softly in the ocean. Recovery via ship is ongoing, pictures will follow. Future missions might be caught with a helicopter.
TweetThe Falcon 9 booster that launched Crew-1 encountered rough seas and barely managed to stay on the barge.

 

[nsaspook]

Human error blamed for Vega launch failure
That's not just human error, that's a quality control failure, too.
On the positive side: It's not a design problem and Vega should be able to return to flight quickly. Two more flights in early 2021 are planned before Vega-C takes over mid 2021.

If you can accidentally swap the cables and have them still fit into the wrong connectors, that IS a design error for something as important as critical thrust vector control. Different termination connectors, harness asymmetry (won't reach the incorrect component) in line/cable length, blocking pins and sockets in connectors, bright color matching codes for terminations are some of the things commonly used to prevent assembly errors.

 

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Electron in the water:

 

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First flight of Cargo Dragon in 5.5 hours
It's a simplified version of Crew Dragon, basically, so the mission should be uneventful.
Soon there will be two Dragon capsules docked to the ISS at the same time. Crew-1 and their Crew Dragon capsule are still there.

 

[Jonathan Scott]

First flight of Cargo Dragon in 5.5 hours

@SpaceX on Twitter:
Due to poor weather in the recovery area for today’s attempt, now targeting Sunday, December 6 at 11:17 a.m. EST for launch of CRS-21

 

[mfb]

Forgot this one: Hayabusa 2 deployed its asteroid sample over Australia.
It landed an hour ago, they located its beacon, a helicopter will now search for its exact place and pick it up.

 

[dlgoff]

I got a great view last night,here in Perry, Kansas, of the ISS fly-over. Tonight will be even better; visible for about 5 minutes and almost directly overhead.

from https://spotthestation.nasa.gov/sightings/view.cfm?country=United_States&

 

[mfb]

Did you see Dragon chasing it?
I saw that once by chance, but it's rare with the typical short approach duration.SpaceX is serious with the Starship prototype launch attempt.
Livestream starts in 14 hours
As this is a highly experimental spacecraft and flight the launch can happen at any time during the day, or it can be moved to the following day or the day afterwards.
There will be some warning time, first from filling the rocket with propellant and then on a shorter notice (10 minutes) from a siren. And SpaceX might also comment on planned launch times during the livestream.

If the flight works we'll see a spectacular landing (with the spacecraft rotating from horizontal to vertical shortly before landing), if it fails we'll get a spectacular explosion. Either way, this will be very interesting.

 

[Stavros Kiri]

CONJUNCTION OF JUPITER AND SATURN: In two weeks, Jupiter and Saturn will be so close together, some people will perceive them as a single brilliant star. It's a rare Great Conjunction, the likes of which have not been seen in hundreds of years. They are already getting closer and closer, so take a look for yourself in the early night sky, before their setting ...

The Conjunction happens right on Winter Solstice, 21 Dec., 2020. Perhaps that's a Christmas star! ...
https://www.livescience.com/jupiter-saturn-close-on-winter-solstice.html

 

[berkeman]

SpaceX is serious with the Starship prototype launch attempt.
Livestream starts in 14 hours
As this is a highly experimental spacecraft and flight the launch can happen at any time during the day, or it can be moved to the following day or the day afterwards.
There will be some warning time, first from filling the rocket with propellant and then on a shorter notice (10 minutes) from a siren. And SpaceX might also comment on planned launch times during the livestream.

 

[mfb]

They removed the strings that held the "flaps" in place and then tested moving them.

No launch time estimate from SpaceX so far. Starship is not fueled yet.
spacelaunchnow.me thinks that the launch will be 22:20 UTC, in 1.5 hours. That would be 40 minutes before the end of today's window. I don't know where they get their oddly specific time from.
Allegedly a NASA plane will be near the launch site in about an hour, possibly to take some measurements from the air?

Edit: Tanking started, estimated launch time 22:00 UTC if nothing goes wrong.

Edit2: NASA plane confirmed. Arrived on site.

Edit3: As of 22:11 fueling seems to proceed. Still 50 minutes remaining in the launch window.

 

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SpaceX livestream is running, their countdown ends :35 or in 4 minutes.

Edit: Aborted just at ignition.
"Standing down for the day" - probably another try tomorrow.

 

[dlgoff]

Did you see Dragon chasing it?

Well, I'm not sure.

I was going outside ~every 15 minutes to view the skies starting at about 6:30 pm CST on 12/6. At about 45 minutes before seeing the station at the scheduled time at 7:07pm CST I saw what I thought was an "ordinary" satellite; but it Did follow the same path as the station. Is it possible that that was the Crew Dragon chasing the station? It appeared with the brightness of the other stars. I didn't put two and two together until you asked.

 

[mfb]

Sounds like Dragon. It's much dimmer than the ISS, of course, but still quite visible. It launched Dec 6 in the morning CST and docked a day later, so in the evening it was in a similar orbit but chasing the ISS.

 

[dlgoff]

Sounds like Dragon.

Thanks @mfb

 

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Starship is getting fueled again.
SpaceX livestream in 20 minutes
Let's use the existing test thread for further updates.

 

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Explosion, but on the landing pad at relatively low velocity. Overall a great test flight. Towards the end the thrust was lower than planned.

 

[berkeman]

Interesting. But the flame-out of the first engine wasn't planned, was it? Or is the plan to go from 3 engines to 2 engines to just one for landing?

 

[mfb]

The general expectation was a three-engine burn that stops at ~8 km followed by 4 km upwards coasting, but that didn't happen. Starship wouldn't have had the fuel (or the permission) to improvise, so this 3 -> 2 -> 1 engine burn all the way up to 12.5 km was planned. That way one engine was burning longer, maybe that was the idea.
During landing it looks to me like one of the engines lost thrust completely, but it's hard to see.