Space Stuff and Launch Info

[1oldman2]

http://spaceflight101.com/spacex-completes-falcon-9-amos-6-failure-investigation/
"SpaceX concluded an exhaustive investigation into the cause of the dramatic explosion of a Falcon 9 rocket during a pre-launch test on September 1 and is now looking forward to returning to launch operations as early as Sunday with the first of seven missions dedicated to deploying Iridium’s next generation of low-orbiting communications satellites."

"It is not yet known when SpaceX can resume flights from Cape Canaveral as the company works to fully activate Launch Complex 39A at the Kennedy Space Center that will serve as the primary east coast launch pad for Falcon 9 until Space Launch Complex 40 can be repaired after receiving extensive damage in the September 1 mishap. First on the Cape manifest for Falcon 9 is the launch of the EchoStar 23 communications satellites which can be expected no-earlier than January 15 and will likely be followed by the Dragon SpX-10 resupply mission to the Space Station".

 

[mfb]

Jan 15 is quite close, so they probably have a fixed timeline now, and delay it only if something goes wrong.

 

[1oldman2]

Jan 15 is quite close, so they probably have a fixed timeline now, and delay it only if something goes wrong.

I'm only going off of this one article however it seems to be as good of information as can get at the moment, I wouldn't doubt that Planetary.org will have something to add also though.
http://spaceflight101.com/spacex-completes-falcon-9-amos-6-failure-investigation/
"It is not yet known when SpaceX can resume flights from Cape Canaveral as the company works to fully activate Launch Complex 39A at the Kennedy Space Center that will serve as the primary east coast launch pad for Falcon 9 until Space Launch Complex 40 can be repaired after receiving extensive damage in the September 1 mishap. First on the Cape manifest for Falcon 9 is the launch of the EchoStar 23 communications satellites which can be expected no-earlier than January 15 and will likely be followed by the Dragon SpX-10 resupply mission to the Space Station".

It seems likely that SpaceX will have a very aggressive launch schedule to try and clear their backlog after the September incident, I would think the January 15th launch date is a "best case" scenario, contingent on getting the 39A pad ready for launch. Two flights in about a week would be unprecedented for SpaceX, It could be possible, however the company is being very cautious as well as very aggressive. I note they won't be doing static testing with the payload attached, The actual launch vs. schedule rate should be somewhat telling as to their progress rebounding from the setback.

I also noted that the near term fix amounts to re-configuring the COPV's to allow loading warmer helium temperatures, the long term fix is a redesign of the COPV's to prevent the buckling that led to the meltdown. I can't imagine NASA/FAA clearing manned flight until the redesigned COPV system has been implemented. This should be a good test of how resilient the company is overall.

 

[mfb]

Planning date of Jan15

Related discussion

 

[mfb]

And slipped to 26th as "preliminary placeholder".
We'll see what happens.

The return to flight (but from Vandenberg) is still scheduled for Sunday.

 

[1oldman2]

Related discussion

 

[1oldman2]

Asteroids are in the news again.
https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-selects-two-missions-to-explore-the-early-solar-system
"NASA has selected two missions that have the potential to open new windows on one of the earliest eras in the history of our solar system - a time less than 10 million years after the birth of our sun. The missions, known as Lucy and Psyche, were chosen from five finalists and will proceed to mission formulation, with the goal of launching in 2021 and 2023, respectively".



This may explaine some of interest in Psyche.

https://arxiv.org/abs/1610.00802

 

[mfb]

Lucy just has fly-bys at the Jupiter trojans, unfortunately. A Dawn-like mission would have to pick one side, but could stay much longer at the targets there.

 

[1oldman2]

Lucy just has fly-bys at the Jupiter trojans, unfortunately. A Dawn-like mission would have to pick one side, but could stay much longer at the targets there.

The Lucy mission is going to be an awesome tour, I see several members are veterans of the New Horizons shot.
The 16 Psyche mission is dedicated to just studying the one Asteroid if I'm not mistaken. I looked up some data on that one and noticed the rotation period is just over four revolutions per hour, not quite a "spinner". Here's a little more info on that target.
http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?feature=6713
http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=Psyche;old=0;orb=0;cov=0;log=0;cad=0#phys_par
4.196 rotations per hour, Absolute magnitude 5.9

While I'm at it I thought this was pretty cool.
http://www.planetary.org/blogs/jason-davis/2016/20170103-axiom-profile.html
Interesting company name, the rate of Space privatation is going to surprise a lot of peaple in the next decade, I didn't see this coming.

"An axiom is a statement that is established, accepted or self-evidently true, and that's how the company talks about its future. They aren't planning to build the first private space station - they're doing it. They aren't hoping to launch a mutlipurpose module to the International Space Station in 2020 - they are. An Axiom-sponsored astronaut isn't projected to visit the station in 2019 - he or she is".

And JWST is going back to it after an issue halted a vibration test.
https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddar...escope-to-resume-vibration-testing-in-january
"Currently, the team is continuing their analyses with the goal of having a review of their findings, conclusions and plans for resuming vibration testing in January," said Eric Smith, program director for NASA's James Webb Space Telescope, NASA Headquarters in Washington.

 

[mfb]

"An axiom is a statement that is established, accepted or self-evidently true, and that's how the company talks about its future. They aren't planning to build the first private space station - they're doing it. They aren't hoping to launch a mutlipurpose module to the International Space Station in 2020 - they are. An Axiom-sponsored astronaut isn't projected to visit the station in 2019 - he or she is".

Blah blah blah.
They also misunderstand how axioms are used in mathematics. It doesn't make sense to ask "is an axiom true?" - if you can ask that, it is not an axiom any more, it is a theorem that gets proved based on axioms.

 

[1oldman2]

Blah blah blah.
They also misunderstand how axioms are used in mathematics. It doesn't make sense to ask "is an axiom true?" - if you can ask that, it is not an axiom any more, it is a theorem that gets proved based on axioms.

You know, in light of your post it seems likely that they choose the name "Axiom" as a marketing or commercial angle rather than a math concept, the author of the article (Jason-Davis) may have seized on the math aspect to tie his story together with a twist. For all I know they could have named their Space station after the ship in Disney's Wall-E. (Thanks for the introduction to axioms, seems almost a philosophical concept on the surface).

 

[1oldman2]

The return to flight (but from Vandenberg) is still scheduled for Sunday.

At least this point has been reached regarding the launch.
http://spaceflight101.com/falcon-9-iridium-flight-1-static-fire/
SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket fired up its nine first stage engines on Thursday in a critical Static Fire Test carried out at Vandenberg Air Force Base.

Then of course there's this.
http://spacenews.com/nasa-selects-x-ray-astronomy-mission/
GRAPEVINE, Texas - NASA has selected an X-ray astronomy spacecraft to study black holes and other astronomical phenomena as the next flight in a program of small astrophysics missions, the agency announced Jan. 3.

 

[mfb]

The launch slipped to Monday, but with the static fire done it looks promising. Now they have to put the payload on top of the rocket.
The drone ship is on the way.
FAA approval seems to be not done, but I guess they expect it by Friday.

 

[mfb]

https://twitter.com/Pat_DefDaily/status/817414001386733568 .

Everything ready for a launch on Monday.

 

[1oldman2]

More "Space Junk"? nearly even odds.

http://spaceflight101.com/close-orbital-encounter-january-7-2017/
"The JSpOC has identified a close approach between two non-maneuverable satellites in a sun-synchronous orbit (approximately 800km altitude) with a time of closest approach at 21:53:00 UTC on 7 January 2017,"the warning said. "The probability of collision has been predicted as high as 44%."

 

[1oldman2]

The game is rained out until at least the 14th.
http://spaceflightnow.com/2017/01/0...ipped-to-avoid-stormy-weather-range-conflict/
"Forecasters predict a rainy, breezy week along California’s Central Coast, and the poor weather will keep SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket grounded until at least Jan. 14, officials said Sunday".

Regarding this piece, it would be very nice if detectable mergers were common. (Seems like there shouldn't be shortage of them over the life of the universe)
http://www.astrowatch.net/2017/01/ligo-expected-to-detect-more-binary.html
"We began LIGO’s second observing run (called "O2") on November 30, 2016. O2 is planned to continue for approximately six months until the late spring or early summer of 2017. After it ends, we will enter another period of detector commissioning where we will work to improve the Hanford and Livingston detectors’ sensitivities through the end of 2017. It’s also possible that the Virgo interferometer (located near Pisa, Italy) will come online and join LIGO sometime in the next few months, which will bring an added capability to our ability to detect and locate gravitational wave sources," David Reitze of the California Institute of Technology (Caltech) told Astrowatch.net.

 

[mfb]

More "Space Junk"? nearly even odds.

We got lucky.

44% collision risks means they could predict the orbit at least with meter- and millisecond-sized accuracy a day ahead - quite impressive.

Based on the previous run, LIGO should detect a few more events in this run: It is a bit more sensitive now, and the run is longer. Adding Virgo would improve the sensitivity a lot.

 

[1oldman2]

We got lucky.

Very lucky, I don't think the loss of the equipment would have been that big of a deal overall, the debris field on the other hand would add to a very real issue that is going to need dealt with sooner rather than later. I noticed Japan recently launched an experimental debris removal mission, I would imagine about the time popular orbits are too cluttered to be usable, the commercial field of "Orbital Cleanup" will become big business. (the CubeSats etc. in LEO tend to not be much of a long term problem, however the craft in the 500 to 800 km orbits can take decades to reenter and their debris fields can be rather extensive from what I read).

44% collision risks means they could predict the orbit at least with meter- and millisecond-sized accuracy a day ahead - quite impressive.

True, that's some impressive math. I looked into it a bit and came across this.
A little dated but this is interesting reading on the subject. (I love a creative acronym).
http://celestrak.com/SOCRATES/AIAA-03-548.pdf
http://celestrak.com/SOCRATES/

From, http://spaceflight101.com/close-orbital-encounter-january-7-2017/
"Due to errors in orbit determination and external influences on a satellite’s orbit, it can not be predicted with absolute certainty that the satellites will indeed collide. A 44% probability is considered very high - almost even odds of a collision taking place. Satellite operators typically track conjunctions starting at a 1/1000 probability of collision".

Based on the previous run, LIGO should detect a few more events in this run: It is a bit more sensitive now, and the run is longer. Adding Virgo would improve the sensitivity a lot.

I believe the Livingston detector began "O2" with a 25% increase in sensitivity (I need to confirm this). Next upgrade is scheduled for Hanford and Virgo is new to me, any idea if it will feature upgrades or improvements based on the current observatories ?.Here is an excellent article on the Lucy/Psyche mission, it appears the Psyche aspect is scheduled for a nominal observation period of one year, not unlike the Ceres mission. (If asteroid Psyche lives up to it's expectations it would be one of the best "Nuggets" in the solar system to an outfit such as Space Resources).

http://www.planetary.org/blogs/guest-blogs/van-kane/20170109-lucy-and-psyche-asteroid-missions.html
"Last week, Santa in the guise of NASA managers brought the solar system small bodies science community a sack full of belated Christmas presents. The Venus science community was unfortunately left with no presents under the tree".In the world of smaller commercial launch systems, the Electron has been scheduled for a test flight in the first half of 2017. Originally set for late December of 2016, this will be worth watching, very cool engineering. The launch site is another huge advantage, apparently the location is prime for rapid turn around with up to one launch per week.

I wish the writer wouldn't use the phrase "battery-powered" Rocket, I think "Hybrid" would be more appropriate.
http://spaceflight101.com/spacerockets/electron/

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11432396

This is a new startup I hadn't heard of, I think "Reusable" is going to be very popular in the future.
http://spacenews.com/spains-gmv-takes-a-stake-in-pld-spaces-reusable-rocket-quest/

Then of course this dovetails nicely with the subject, not exactly commercial but the technology is relevant.
http://spaceflight101.com/ss-520-4-smallest-orbital-rocket-set-for-launch/
"Japan plans to launch the smallest orbital space launch vehicle ever flown on Tuesday, lifting into orbit a tiny satellite of only 3 Kilograms. The launch of the SS-520-4 modified sounding rocket is planned at 23:48 UTC from the Uchinoura Space Center and will carry into orbit the TRICOM-1 CubeSat, dedicated to Earth-imaging and store-and-forward communications".

 

[mfb]

I believe the Livingston detector began "O2" with a 25% increase in sensitivity (I need to confirm this). Next upgrade is scheduled for Hanford and Virgo is new to me, any idea if it will feature upgrades or improvements based on the current observatories ?.

25% increase in sensitivity is a factor 2 (1.25³) in event rate. An additional factor 2 from the longer observation time and the best estimate is 8 observed black hole mergers. Plus whatever the neutron star merger search will find.

This is a new startup I hadn't heard of, I think "Reusable" is going to be very popular in the future.

I'm quite sure it will become the default. "Reusable rockets" will be like "reusable airplanes". Technically a correct description, but everyone just says "airplane" and assumes it can fly more than once.

Then of course this dovetails nicely with the subject, not exactly commercial but the technology is relevant.
http://spaceflight101.com/ss-520-4-smallest-orbital-rocket-set-for-launch/
"Japan plans to launch the smallest orbital space launch vehicle ever flown on Tuesday, lifting into orbit a tiny satellite of only 3 Kilograms. The launch of the SS-520-4 modified sounding rocket is planned at 23:48 UTC from the Uchinoura Space Center and will carry into orbit the TRICOM-1 CubeSat, dedicated to Earth-imaging and store-and-forward communications".

This is a weird rocket. It makes sense, but it is quite unusual.
Smaller rockets have trouble with atmospheric drag - it scales with the area, not with the mass of the rocket. They chose solid fuel for the first stage - it gives a high acceleration to get through the atmosphere quickly and with a very steep flight profile. The downside: You end up with a low horizontal velocity, and the first stage burns out when the rocket is quite low. Therefore, it cruises for a while until the rocket reaches a reasonable perigee height. There, the second stage ignites, solid fuel like the first stage. It is spin-stabilized to save mass (no active attitude control) - this spin is also used by the third stage later. The third stage uses solid fuel as well.

You cannot throttle or stop a solid rocket motor. Once it is ignited, it will burn at full thrust until it is empty. Spin-stabilization means no active control while the engines are burning. The only time where the rocket can be controlled is between the first and second stage, and the precise time of the ignition. The rocket will probably have a poor precision.

Overall, that flight profile needs larger accelerations and slightly more delta_v than regular rocket launches, but it leads to a very small rocket.

 

[1oldman2]

http://www.njit.edu/news/2013/2013-262.php
"Researchers at NJIT’s Big Bear Solar Observatory (BBSO) in Big Bear, CA have obtained new and remarkably detailed photos of the Sun with the New Solar Telescope (NST). The photographs reveal never-before-seen details of solar magnetism revealed in photospheric and chromospheric features".

*See video of "real Alien craft" as it lands on moon!*

 

[1oldman2]

Things look good for Saturday morning on the west coast.
http://spaceflight101.com/falcon-9-stands-ready-for-return-to-flight-2/


Japan is planning another launch attempt of the SS-520-4 "Demonstrator" for small commercial payloads on the 14th, not sure of the window time.

It appears NASA's ARM may face "amputation".
http://spacenews.com/asteroid-missions-face-delays-and-restructuring/
WASHINGTON - NASA is delaying contracts and other awards planned for its Asteroid Redirect Mission (ARM) early this year by a few months, citing uncertainty about the agency’s budget.

Roscosmos is making progress with December 1st Soyuz Anomaly.
http://spacenews.com/engine-failure-destroyed-progress-launch-russia-says/
Roscosmos said Wednesday the leading cause for the Dec. 1 launch failure was foreign particles that got into the Soyuz rocket’s engine, causing a fire and explosion that ripped apart the oxidizer tank.

 

[1oldman2]

Things look good for Saturday morning on the west coast.

 

[mfb]

And liftoff...

And the first stage has landed on the drone ship.

The second stage has cut off, it will ignite again to boost the satellites to their target orbit in about 45 minutes.

Edit: Satellites are getting deployed.

 

[1oldman2]

Impressive "comeback mission"
http://spaceflight101.com/falcon-9-iridium-flight-1-launch-success/
"SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket made an impressive Return to Flight on Saturday, blasting off from California and earning double check-marks by achieving a flawless delivery of ten Iridium-NEXT communications satellites and successfully landing the rocket’s first stage at sea for the first time after a West Coast launch".

The next launch is set for January 26, at LC-39A KSC the payload being EchoStar 23.

JAXA's SS-520-4 launch looks good,(winds are currently moderate at the launch site, however the forecast looks favorable). The burn time on these solid motors deserves notice, these suckers are fast. (I wonder what the max G's are on a flight like this ?).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S-Series_(rocket_family)
"Launch is scheduled to occur during a 16 minutes window opening at 23:33 UTC on 14 January 2017 (08:33 JST on 15 January). For more information, please see 2017 in spaceflight and the spaceflight portal".

 

[OmCheeto]

As I mentioned on my FB page; "That, was incredible."

 

[mfb]

(I wonder what the max G's are on a flight like this ?)

The third stage accelerates by 4500 m/s in 25.6 seconds, for an average acceleration of 176 m/s² or 17.9 g.

As it is a solid rocket engine, its Isp is probably below 300s. Assuming 300s, the third stage has a mass ratio of 4.6. Assuming a constant thrust, the average acceleration is 0.42 times the final acceleration. The final acceleration is 42 g.
A worse Isp would lead to a larger mass fraction, increasing the final acceleration even more.

Solid-fuel rockets can have ridiculous accelerations. Sprint reached 100 g with a small nuclear warhead on top, the experimental HIBEX reached 400 g according to this website. At this acceleration, the rocket travels at 90 m/s after a single meter, and reaches the speed of sound after 75 milliseconds and 14 meter, just three times its length. Well, in actual use the initial acceleration is a bit lower.

 

[1oldman2]

Solid-fuel rockets can have ridiculous accelerations. Sprint reached 100 g with a small nuclear warhead on top

Wow! 0 to Mach 10 in 5 seconds... as if that's not enough G's, "Sprint was also constructed to withstand shocks up to 25,000Gs which meant it could handle nearby nuclear explosions and their resulting blast (how hardened it was to EMP and radiation is unknown)".

http://spaceflight101.com/ss-520-4-rocket-launches-on-experimental-mission/
"SS-520-4 lifted off from the Uchinoura Space Center in Japan’s Kagoshima prefecture at 8:33 a.m. local time on Sunday, 23:33 UTC on Saturday on a one-off demonstration mission, aiming to put the TRICOM-1 CubeSat into an elliptical orbit around Earth. The small rocket quickly vanished from view after an on-time blastoff with a thrust eclipsing the rocket’s initial mass by a factor of seven".

 

[mfb]

Looks like we have to wait until tomorrow to see if the launch was successful.

Can't expect a live video when the transmission system would be half the payload mass ;).

 

[1oldman2]

Looks like we have to wait until tomorrow to see if the launch was successful.

Update...
http://spaceflight101.com/ss-520-4-rocket-launches-on-experimental-mission/
"The rocket’s climb to orbit was expected to take seven and a half minutes, however, all telemetry from the ascending launch vehicle was lost after the first stage had finished its 31-second burn. Tracking data showed debris of the rocket falling into the Pacific Ocean in a closed zone south-east of the launch site".

At least 50% of today's launches went according to plan.

 

[mfb]

To give some idea of the scale...

 

[1oldman2]

Any word on its condition for reuse ?, doesn't appear to be as fried as some of the others they have landed.

 

[mfb]

They'll probably test fire it soon, as they did with the other cores.

SpaceX plans to introduce a new booster version soon, beyond showing that it is possible (currently scheduled for February) it is unclear how often they will re-fly the older boosters. Re-using the newer versions will be easier. Source

 

[1oldman2]

It appears we may be rethinking the history of our Solar system.
http://www.lunduniversity.lu.se/art...allenge-our-understanding-of-the-solar-system
Researchers have discovered minerals from 43 meteorites that landed on Earth 470 million years ago. More than half of the mineral grains are from meteorites completely unknown or very rare in today’s meteorite flow. These findings mean that we will probably need to revise our current understanding of the history and development of the solar system.

 

[1oldman2]

This is a good example of SpaceX's resilience.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/congressional-investigators-warn-of-spacex-rocket-defects-1486067874
"Congressional investigators are raising new safety concerns about Space Exploration Technologies Corp.’s plans for future manned launches, citing persistent cracking of vital propulsion-system components, according to government and industry officials familiar with the details."

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-space-spacex-idUSKBN15H307
SpaceX's final version of the Falcon 9 rocket, which Elon Musk aims to launch before the end of the year, will fix a potential problem with cracks in its turbopumps, the company said on Thursday. Its statement followed a report that the U.S. Government Accountability Office will flag turbine wheel cracks in the rocket's turbopumps as a safety issue. NASA, the U.S. space agency, and the Air Force are among SpaceX's customers.https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2017/noaas-goes-16-exis-instrument-observes-solar-flares
On January 21, 2017, the GOES-16 Extreme Ultraviolet and X-Ray Irradiance Sensors (EXIS) observed solar flares.

 

[1oldman2]

While reading about this I was surprised to learn there is such a thing as "speed of sound in interstellar space" I should of filed this in T.I.L.
From, http://www.nro.nao.ac.jp/en/news/2017/0116-yamada-e.html
"During the survey, the team found a compact molecular cloud with enigmatic motion. This cloud, named the "Bullet," has a speed of more than 100 km/s, which exceeds the speed of sound in interstellar space by more than two orders of magnitude. In addition, this cloud, with the size of two light-years, moves backward against the rotation of the Milky Way Galaxy."