Space Stuff and Launch Info

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They don't need static fires or launches on the same day - at least not with the current launch frequency. Launching their satellite constellation will need higher launch rates.

In Boca Chica they have a permission for 12 launches per year, and they have to launch in a very narrow (~2 degrees) angle to avoid going over Florida or one of the many islands south of it. Missions to geostationary orbit are probably the only things they can launch from there.

 

[1oldman2]

Looking back at post #273, this dovetails nicely with Fraser's article.
http://sci.esa.int/cosmic-vision/59...elected-planet-hunting-mission-moves-forward/
http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-40346410

 

[1oldman2]

90% chance of go for the weather today.

http://spaceflight101.com/falcon-9-static-fire-for-second-iridium-launch/
"Falcon 9 carrying the BulgariaSat-1 communications satellite is working toward liftoff on Friday during a two-hour window opening at 18:10 UTC, to be followed - if all goes according to plan - by the west coast Falcon 9 on Sunday with an instantaneous launch opportunity at 20:25 UTC to send the second batch of ten Iridium-NEXT communications satellites on their way to Low Earth Orbit."

Update, launch is rescheduled for 3:10 EST. today.

 

[mfb]

Falcon 9 will experience its highest ever reentry force and heat in today's launch. Good chance rocket booster doesn't make it back.

Tweeted by Musk

SES-10 was heavier, so I assume they go beyond GTO (a larger apogee, makes it easier for the satellite to circularize its orbit) or do some plane change for the satellite (to get closer to the equatorial plane).

 

[OmCheeto]

Watching http://www.spacex.com/webcast

 

[mfb]

The first stage landed (again!) - unusually far away from the center, but well within the size of the possible landing area.

 

[1oldman2]

Good Show!

 

[1oldman2]

Interesting upgrade information in this article. Launch is looking like a go so far, "Forecasters call for a 100 percent chance of favorable weather at launch time."
https://spaceflightnow.com/2017/06/24/iridium-next-mission-2-mission-status-center/

 

[mfb]

They changed the grid fins (used for steering) to titanium. They expect them to be more durable, so they can be reused without refurbishment. They are also a bit larger to improve the steering.

It is the 9th launch this year, breaking the 2016 record of 8 launches per year. And we are not even halfway through the year.

 

[1oldman2]

It is the 9th launch this year, breaking the 2016 record of 8 launches per year. And we are not even halfway through the year.

I count 19 more F-9's and a couple of Heavy launches to go in 2017
Some interesting upgrade information and a video feed at https://spaceflightnow.com/2017/06/24/iridium-next-mission-2-mission-status-center/
currently a 100% chance of favorable weather for the launch.

 

[mfb]

I count 19 more F-9's and a couple of Heavy launches to go in 2017

Don't expect the time estimates to be reliable. SpaceX doesn't maintain a launch schedule (just a manifest without dates), so all we have are (a) a few random tweets, (b) announcements by the satellite operators, (c) rarely official announcements by SpaceX, and (d) educated guesses.

An odd flight profile today. Launch for 10 minutes, then coast for 40 minutes, then fire the second stage again for ... 3 seconds. Enough to circularize the orbit, and it is more efficient than going up steeper to make that earlier.

 

[1oldman2]

I was counting from https://spaceflight101.com/calendar/ although one bad day could make that schedule moot.

 

[1oldman2]

Happy National Asteroid Day.
This pass, the Great Red Spot will be the star of the show.
https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news...._campaign=NASAJPL&utm_content=daily20170630-4
"Telescopes in Hawaii have obtained new images of Jupiter and its Great Red Spot, which will assist the first-ever close-up study of the Great Red Spot, planned for July 10. On that date, NASA's Juno spacecraft will fly directly over the giant planet's most famous feature at an altitude of only about 5,600 miles (9,000 kilometers)."

 

[mfb]

We have yet another SpaceX launch tomorrow - a heavy satellite to geostationary orbit, which means no attempt to recover the first stage. If it doesn't get delayed, it is the fourth SpaceX launch in 30 days (June 3, June 23, June 25, July 2) and the tenth this year.

Taiwan will launch their first satellite (Formosat-5) in August. The satellite was originally planned to be launched on a Falcon 1. Then Falcon 1 got cancelled, the mission was combined with several other satellites and planned for Falcon 9. Then the satellite was delayed a lot, the other satellites were removed, Falcon 9 was upgraded... now a rocket that can deliver 20,000 kg to orbit launches a satellite with a mass of just 475 kg. They cannot even let the booster return to launch site because they don't have the permission to land there on the West Coast yet. I guess they will do something to use this massive overcapacity. Test something related to second stage reuse, test some different flight profile for the first stage, or something like that.Japan plans to send humans to Moon by 2030. Let's see if that actually gets funding.LISA got approved as mission! Note even the downsized eLISA - what ESA builds is now close to the original LISA mission where NASA contributed notably.

 

[1oldman2]

China has had a second "anomaly" in as many weeks.
http://spacenews.com/long-march-5-launch-fails/
"Chinese broadcaster CGTN reported that the Long March 5 "started to malfunction shortly after take-off." Observers watching in-flight video of the launch noticed a plume of gas late in the first stage burn, suggesting a problem with one or both of the engines in the core stage."

Going live in Five hours from post time,(7:36 p.m. EDT, or 23:36 UTC.)

https://spaceflightnow.com/2017/06/29/falcon-9-intelsat-35e-launch-
"SCRUB. The SpaceX launch director says a computer abort was triggered at T-minus 10 seconds in the rocket's guidance, navigation and control system."

 

[mfb]

Next launch attempt is tomorrow at the same time.

 

[1oldman2]

Deja vu

 

[mfb]

Not the same reason as yesterday apparently, but the countdown was halted at -9 seconds again.
July 4 - independent of problems?

 

[1oldman2]

July 4 - independent of problems?

Never, but third times a charm.

 

[1oldman2]

Here's a cool shot of Dragon.

 

[mfb]

Nice picture of Dragon entering the atmosphere.

No launch today. 5th or 6th.

 

[SamBeer]

Does anyone know anything about electrogravitics??

 

[1oldman2]

Does anyone know anything about electrogravitics??

electrogravitics... That would be a very brief conversation on this Forum.

 

[mfb]

Please see our guidelines.

 

[1oldman2]

An interesting Video, It's a little rough so a higher Definition setting and full screen mode is recommended, it doesn't look good for AMC 9.
From, https://spaceflight101.com/amc-9-restores-contact-with-ground-sheds-debris/

 

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it doesn't look good for AMC 9.

Well, the satellite is old already, had 14 of its 15 years design lifetime.

No launch today. 5th or 6th.

5th - today.
23:37 UTC (6.5 hours after this post) or up to one hour after that.

 

[1oldman2]

Well, the satellite is old already, had 14 of its 15 years design lifetime.

Good point, The article mentions a Kinetic event, any word on the cause ? Debris collision vs. Equipment failure ?

5th - today.
23:37 UTC (6.5 hours after this post) or up to one hour after that.

This will be a test of the "Third Times a Charm" theory. I'm betting the bugs are worked out and they will fly today.

 

[1oldman2]

https://www.missionjuno.swri.edu/junocam/processing/
https://spaceflightnow.com/2017/07/12/first-images-of-jupiters-great-red-spot-reach-earth/
http://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley....N)1944-8007.JUNO1/?campaign=dartwol|427538210

 

[1oldman2]

A better idea in the works ?
http://spacenews.com/spacex-drops-plans-for-powered-dragon-landings/
WASHINGTON - "SpaceX no longer plans to have the next version of its Dragon spacecraft be capable of powered landings, a move that has implications for the company’s long-term Mars plans."

"There was a time that I thought the Dragon approach to landing Mars, where you’ve got a base heat shield and side-mounted thrusters, would be the right way to land on Mars," he said. "Now I’m pretty confident that is not the right way and there’s a far better approach."

Quoting Musk
"Plan is to do powered landings on Mars for sure, but with a vastly bigger ship"

 

[mfb]

He also confirmed that SpaceX works on a smaller version of ITS.
The impact on the planned path to Mars is huge, but it also impacts other parts of SpaceX operation.

• The largest thing humans landed on Mars so far (Curiosity) had a mass of 900 kg. Red Dragon would have landed multiple tons. A downscaled ITS would probably land with ~100 tons. Without previous experience of propulsive landings on Mars in general, and without any landing experience from SpaceX.
• Before humans can be sent to Mars, spacecraft there have to demonstrate the landing capability, and they have to demonstrate that fuel production is feasible. Previously this was expected for the Red Dragon missions in 2020 and 2022. If a downscaled ITS is the first spacecraft to do go to Mars, then 2022 is a super optimistic timescale, and 2024 or later is more likely. You probably want another round to refine that - 2026. That means humans won't go there before 2029, even if everything goes well.
• Currently they can reuse the pressure vessel of Dragon, but not the full capsule. The salt water landing corrodes other parts. A propulsive landing on land would have made full reuse much easier. Musk mentioned a possible landing on a soft surface, but that didn't look like a real plan. Landing in a lake might be possible.

On the positive side, the business model will probably look much better now. A rocket with a payload in the 100 ton range, where both stages are reusable very often, can take over the full commercial launch market, even the parts that do not exist yet (e. g. LEO satellite internet constellations or space tourism besides short ISS visits).
With a lot of in-orbit refueling, such a system could go to Moon as well. NASA or ESA might buy a few trips.

 

[1oldman2]

It's interesting to hear about the Heavy's plans for this year, hope all goes well. They should be able to get several wheels of cheese in orbit with the maiden flight.
https://phys.org/news/2017-07-space...e=menu&utm_medium=link&utm_campaign=item-menu

Here's a good one, thought it was a joke but unfortunately just another "sign of the times".
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...martian-civilizations/?utm_term=.d6810cfcbe35

 

[1oldman2]

News on the Heavy.
https://spaceflightnow.com/2017/07/25/musk-sets-expectations-low-for-maiden-falcon-heavy-launch/
"When SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy rocket finally takes off for the first time, a debut now scheduled this fall, there’s a good chance the commercial heavy-lifter will falter short of reaching orbit, company founder and chief designer Elon Musk said last week."
"There’s a lot of risk associated with Falcon Heavy, a real good chance that that vehicle does not make it to orbit," Musk said, referring to the inaugural test launch. "I want to make sure to set expectations accordingly. I hope it makes it far enough beyond the pad so that it does not cause pad damage. I would consider even that a win, to be honest."

 

[mfb]

It is the pad they want to use for the manned missions to the ISS next year. If they would think damage to the pad was a likely outcome they wouldn't do that. More delays of Dragon 2 would make NASA a very unhappy customer, and so far it is the most important customer.

On the other hand, the US has some more military satellite contracts they want to award soon, for a total of $2 billion. For SpaceX to participate, they need at least one FH launch before the end of this year.

 

[1oldman2]

On the other hand, the US has some more military satellite contracts they want to award soon, for a total of $2 billion. For SpaceX to participate, they need at least one FH launch before the end of this year.

The STP-2 launch should make a pretty good proving ground for that. Any Idea what the payload mass is on that flight?

 

[mfb]

The demo mission with the dummy payload is all that counts. STP-2 will be too late.

I don't think the payload is the point, no one questions that FH will be able to lift every satellite currently designed. The interesting part is the flight dynamics. Does the rocket survive the vibrations induced by 27 rocket engines, is the aerodynamics simulation accurate, does the separation work?

ISAT has a mass of more than 5000 kg, COSMIC-2 adds 1700 kg, no idea about the other payloads but they should be lighter.
ISAT and COSMIC-2 go to LEO, but with different orbital planes. The total payload mass is probably not too high but the second stage will need fuel for all the plane changes.