News Can Terrorism Futures Markets Predict Events Accurately?

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The discussion centers around the Pentagon's Policy Analysis Market (PAM), which has faced criticism from legislators like Sen. Ron Wyden, who deem it "grotesque." Proponents argue that PAM's cancellation deprives intelligence agencies of a valuable tool that has historically shown promise in predicting future events. Concerns are raised about the potential for investors to incentivize negative actions, such as terrorism, by participating in such markets. The conversation highlights skepticism regarding the ethical implications of allowing foreign investors, including those with ties to terrorism, to engage in these markets. The concept is described as bizarre, with some participants questioning the practicality and morality of using a market-based approach for intelligence analysis.
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"Legislators like Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) may have found the Pentagon's Policy Analysis Market, or PAM, "grotesque." But proponents of "idea markets" say PAM's quicksilver cancellation will rob the country's intelligence agencies of a tool with a strong history of accurately predicting future events."

http://www.wired.com/news/politics/0,1283,59818,00.html
 
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OK, but at the same time, wouldn't investors have a cause to ENCOURAGE terrorism and the like?
 
Originally posted by Zero
OK, but at the same time, wouldn't investors have a cause to ENCOURAGE terrorism and the like?

To me this idea just stinks; but there is some logic to it. Still, you make a good point. It could end up contributing to the problem.
 
Originally posted by Ivan Seeking
To me this idea just stinks; but there is some logic to it. Still, you make a good point. It could end up contributing to the problem.

Especially since(I think I read this), foreign investors will participate, possibly including the very individuals who finance terror, like George H.W. Bush's saudi business partners.
 
It didn't appear to me that the market would use real money. The examples they gave such as the Hollywood Stock Exchange do NOT use real money. Its all just an intellectual exercise.

That said, its still a pretty bizarre idea.
 

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