News This hurricane Harvey/Irma is nuts

[DS2C]

This is a picture my buddy sent me. There is an interstate underneath all this water.
Anyone in Texas, be safe!

 

[Greg Bernhardt]

The stories coming out of the Houston area are chilling. I hate to see the misery, but cheer on the heroic acts of those putting themselves in danger to assist people in need.

 

[Evo]

My mother and youngest sister live there, still trying to find out how they are.

 

[MarkFL]

A local meteorologist said today that in about 10 days time, the SE Atlantic coast of the U.S. could be threatened by a category 4-5 hurricane. That's a long way out, but it still caught my attention. The model he is using is the same one that predicted very accurately what Hurricane Harvey did. My heart goes out to the folks affected in SE Texas.

 

[DS2C]

The stories coming out of the Houston area are chilling. I hate to see the misery, but cheer on the heroic acts of those putting themselves in danger to assist people in need.

There are some good people coming out of the works for sure. Wish I could be there to help.

My mother and youngest sister live there, still trying to find out how they are.

Really hope they're okay. I've heard it's hard to contact people for many reasons such as communication lines, or they lost their phones in the muck. My buddy is in the fire department further south but fire and rescue and other relief organizations and citizens are working non stop.

A local meteorologist said today that in about 10 days time, the SE Atlantic coast of the U.S. could be threatened by a category 4-5 hurricane. That's a long way out, but it still caught my attention. The model he is using is the same one that predicted very accurately what Hurricane Harvey did. My heart goes out to the folks affected in SE Texas.

Is this a separate one? I've heard Harvey might double back to where it came from as well.

 

[berkeman]

And just when you thought it couldn't get any worse...

http://kron4.com/2017/08/29/more-th...texas-flood-waters-approach-height-of-fences/

More than 300 gators could escape as Texas flood waters approach height of fences

 

[Greg Bernhardt]

A local meteorologist said today that in about 10 days time, the SE Atlantic coast of the U.S. could be threatened by a category 4-5 hurricane.

Harvey was cat 4. I think it also depends on the elevations of the east coast. Have you been through a hurricane in St. Augustine, FL.?

 

[Greg Bernhardt]

And just when you thought it couldn't get any worse...

Meh, I say let them be free

 

[DS2C]

And just when you thought it couldn't get any worse...

http://kron4.com/2017/08/29/more-th...texas-flood-waters-approach-height-of-fences/

What a damn nightmare. This is seriously some nightmarish stuff going on. What's next, a sharknado?

 

[russ_watters]

A local meteorologist said today that in about 10 days time, the SE Atlantic coast of the U.S. could be threatened by a category 4-5 hurricane. That's a long way out, but it still caught my attention. The model he is using is the same one that predicted very accurately what Hurricane Harvey did. My heart goes out to the folks affected in SE Texas.

Irma: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Official predictions only go out to 5 days though, and it won't be that serious or near by then.

 

[phinds]

I STILL simply can't get my mind around the concept of 50 INCHES ! of rain falling in a few days. I mean that sounds practically biblical.

 

[MarkFL]

Harvey was cat 4. I think it also depends on the elevations of the east coast. Have you been through a hurricane in St. Augustine, FL.?

I've been here over 30 years, and we haven't had a direct hit here during that time. Hurricane Frances in 2004 knocked out my power for over 3 weeks, and Hurricane Matthew last year brushed by our coast and knocked out my power for 3 days and dumped enough water (10 inches) that we had a six week plague of mosquitoes afterwards. But, I've been through nothing like the folks in the Houston area are experiencing.

 

[jim hardy]

A local meteorologist said today that in about 10 days time, the SE Atlantic coast of the U.S. could be threatened by a category 4-5 hurricane.

keep an eye on this It's in a bad place - doesn't have to cross Cuba or Hispaniola where the big hills break them up.
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/goes-e/goes-catl-ir.html

old jim

 

[jim hardy]

oops my bad looks like they named it already !

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

 

[scottdave]

And just when you thought it couldn't get any worse...

http://kron4.com/2017/08/29/more-th...texas-flood-waters-approach-height-of-fences/

Wow! On the Houston news, they warned that there may be displace gators coming into residential areas. I assume they were talking about wild gators that were force to move away from their habitat due to storm surge or flooding. The kicker is that they thought important to tell us "Do not approach or try to feed a gator in your neighborhood".

 

[scottdave]

My mother and youngest sister live there, still trying to find out how they are.

On Facebook, there is a page for Harvey, where people can mark themselves as Safe, or needing help (or people who can offer help). It is pretty cool. There may be other website/service to check on people, but I am not aware.

 

[256bits]

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/30/....html?nl=todaysheadlines&emc=edit_th_20170830
Watch where you put your foot down.

These must be a different breed - native to S.America? the article said. An invasive species.
The prairies of Canada years ago had/has what we called fire ants - large ( a little more than a 1/4 inch long ) and black/orange color. I do not know what they had for a defense mechanism for colony survival in a flood would be.

All the critters down there birds, mammals, insects, reptiles, would have to be a little bit confused as to what is going on.

 

[scottdave]

I STILL simply can't get my mind around the concept of 50 INCHES ! of rain falling in a few days. I mean that sounds practically biblical.

I know. Where I live, I decided to make my own rain gauge out of a Tupperware style plastic container. The sides were practically vertical an it was about 6 inches tall. It fit nicely into a cinder block, so I was fairly certain that it wouldn't blow away (it did not). I didn't start until 5 pm on Saturday the 26th, though. The next morning when I woke up at 7:30 it was at the brim. I had not planned on that. I dumped it and kept recording into a spreadsheet.
For the rest of that day, it was fairly constant rate of 0.5 inch per hour, so I went back and estimated an extra inch for the first time period.
The rate slowed down some on Monday, and eventually stopped. My last reading at 6 PM Tuesday, gave a total of 25.125 inches. I wish I had started measuring earlier, when the rain first started.

Our house did not flood. Our garage had flooded in previous storms (about 7 inches one time) , so I made my own levy out of 40 pound bags of topsoil (they were out of sandbags). It turned out that this was less expensive for the necessary volume.

 

[scottdave]

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/30/....html?nl=todaysheadlines&emc=edit_th_20170830
Watch where you put your foot down.

These must be a different breed - native to S.America? the article said. An invasive species.

All the critters down there birds, mammals, insects, reptiles, would have to be a little bit confused as to what is going on.

I have seen the floating clusters in floodwater. I did not know how they did it, till now. The attack mode sounds about right. It was an interesting article. I was not aware about the South American origin. In general, it looks like the animals seem to take care of themselves.

 

[MarkFL]

I have seen the floating clusters in floodwater. I did not know how they did it, till now. The attack mode sounds about right. It was an interesting article. I was not aware about the South American origin. In general, it looks like the animals seem to take care of themselves.

We have fire ants here in Florida, and from what I recall, they were introduced into the U.S. by a ship that traveled from South America to a Mississippi River port in Alabama around 1938 or so. They have since spread throughout the SE U.S., and are adapting to colder climates to move ever northward. I read recently that they are now as far north as southern Indiana.

 

[256bits]

Oh MY God.
Worse to come, but when - chemical fire(s).
http://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/explosions-reported-at-chemical-plant-that-lost-power/ar-AAr0X4U?li=AAggv0m&OCID=ansmsnnews11

 

[Borg]

Looks like the storms are building up again. Possible tropical depression formation south of Texas that is expected to drift north. Plus, Tropical Storm Irma will be is a hurricane tomorrow now and is expected to be a major hurricane by Sunday tomorrow. It's headed straight for the leeward islands which will of course put it right in the Carribean to wreak havoc on some unlucky coastline.

 

[OmCheeto]

My mother and youngest sister live there, still trying to find out how they are.

My niece, her husband, and 3 children live there. It was like pulling teeth to find out their situation.
Everyone is ok, and their house is apparently not flooded.

Having never been to Houston, and not being a "media" watcher, I've been fascinated by the situation, and have been doing lots of maths.
I also got sucked into a "social experiment" in the last couple of days. That was really enlightening/entertaining:

If a man and a woman both post the same thing on social media; "Why are people building in flood plains?" (we are/were both clueless armchair quarterbacks, btw)
The man will get 25 "Frowns" and 9 "Likes", while the woman will get 191 "Likes" and only 17 "Frowns".​

ps. The maths is really interesting too: "Holy cow! They really did get trillions of gallons dropped on them. And that river by my niece's house would take over 100 days to "drain the pond" at that rate."
I would share the data, but I'm really bad at science.

 

[OmCheeto]

Finally!
I've been getting a lot of conflicting stories regarding historical flooding in Houston. This article answers most all of my questions:

Future Flood Control: Time To Buy And Bulldoze Houston's Most Flooded Homes
AUG 30, 2017 @ 10:48 PM

I thought this was interesting: “...For example, a house built in 1969 that has had sixteen claims under the National Flood Insurance Program totaling $1.3 million, was purchased at a total cost of $129,000, resulting in estimated avoided damages in the hundreds of thousands of dollars.”

I'm also curious how common this is in the rest of the country.

 

[256bits]

If a man and a woman both post the same thing on social media; "Why are people building in flood plains?" (we are/were both clueless armchair quarterbacks, btw)
The man will get 25 "Frowns" and 9 "Likes", while the woman will get 191 "Likes" and only 17 "Frowns".

social experiment you say...
I wonder what the Likes/Frowns would be for a "How do I change a flat tire on my car?"
Betcha a Like/Frown the results would be similar.
sliding off the Hurricane Harvey discussion, but the social experiment just tweaked my mind that way.

 

[jim hardy]

If a man and a woman both post the same thing on social media; "Why are people building in flood plains?" (we are/were both clueless armchair quarterbacks, btw)
The man will get 25 "Frowns" and 9 "Likes", while the woman will get 191 "Likes" and only 17 "Frowns".

History of NFIP here
https://www.nap.edu/read/21709/chapter/4

basically it's welfare for insurance industry

In practice, at the end of each year the federal Treasury would make a subsidy payment to the pool equal to the difference between the revenue that would have been earned from sale of NFIP risk-based premiums and the premium charged for existing properties..
...
FEMA moved to implement the NFIP without a private risk-sharing partner. Instead, it engaged private “write your own” (WYO) companies to act as NFIP policy servicing agents. The WYO program allowed insurance companies to sell and manage flood insurance policies in their own names, which encouraged sales. The companies also would process claims but would not bear any risk or set rates.

 

[BillTre]

I thought this was interesting: “...For example, a house built in 1969 that has had sixteen claims under the National Flood Insurance Program totaling $1.3 million, was purchased at a total cost of $129,000, resulting in estimated avoided damages in the hundreds of thousands of dollars.”

I'm also curious how common this is in the rest of the country.

Read this Science news article this morning, which was republished from ProPublica, which dealt with this subject.
There are many economic and other forces opposed to this, but there is this case:

"New York City has been pursuing targeted purchases and acquisitions in some of the city’s most flood-prone spots, building on similar buyouts undertaken by the state. The purchases include the entire community of Oakwood Beach, a Staten Island coastal neighborhood submerged by Hurricane Sandy’s surge in October, 2012."​

 

[OmCheeto]

social experiment you say...
I wonder what the Likes/Frowns would be for a "How do I change a flat tire on my car?"
Betcha a Like/Frown the results would be similar.
sliding off the Hurricane Harvey discussion, but the social experiment just tweaked my mind that way.

I found it mostly entertaining, as it reminded me of that old saying; "If a man says something in the forest, and there's no woman to hear him, is he still wrong?"

History of NFIP here
https://www.nap.edu/read/21709/chapter/4

basically it's welfare for insurance industry

Thanks! Welfare for industries has always raised one of my eyebrows.

Read this Science news article this morning, which was republished from ProPublica, which dealt with this subject.
There are many economic and other forces opposed to this, but there is this case:
"New York City has been pursuing targeted purchases and acquisitions in some of the city’s most flood-prone spots, building on similar buyouts undertaken by the state. The purchases include the entire community of Oakwood Beach, a Staten Island coastal neighborhood submerged by Hurricane Sandy’s surge in October, 2012."

Excellent article. One line in there; "It took that third blow to prompt the municipality in 2014 to bolster its building codes, said Simmons, ..."
kind of reminds me of the "social experiment" situation I referred to earlier. The target woman of the article said this was the third time in 3 years her house had flooded. Which is where I believe the lady from San Francisco and I assumed she was living in a flood plain. I believe somewhere else, it stated that it hadn't flooded there in 60 years prior to this recent round of flooding events.

 

[Mikezilla]

We just barely escaped the wrath of wet drywall, trim and cabinets. The images are as high up as it got. Receding now.

Have to give the builder of subdivision a lot of credit for knowing floodplain in relation to Addicks reservoir spillover worst-case scenario (other than the dam being washed away). Similar story for most every other home in the area. Just repainted 1st floor over the winter too. What a relief!

 

[DS2C]

Wow! That is so much water. A+++ to whoever built that home.

 

[Mikezilla]

Not just one house; similar story for most of subdivision plus a few nearby subs. We're talking around a few hundred homes northeastern edge of Addicks reservoir. Cutting it close, though

 

[Greg Bernhardt]

Irma now Cat 5

 

[Borg]

Irma now Cat 5

And headed straight for the warmer waters of the gulf.

 

[MarkFL]

It looks like it may turn north before entering the Gulf:

 

[Greg Bernhardt]

@MarkFL how are you preparing?

 

[jim hardy]

My youngest daughter just moved from Homestead(just South of Miami) to Kentucky. Looks like good timing. This could be another Andrew or Donna.

Wind damage not flood
...

 

[MarkFL]

@MarkFL how are you preparing?

I've got all my supplies, and I can board up the windows in less than an hour, as I store boards cut for each window. Generator is good to go, plenty of fuel. I will evacuate with my mother, and youngest sister and her family if that looks prudent.

I'm in NE Florida, on the Atlantic coast about 38 miles south of Jacksonville, and the latest spaghetti models I have seen are beginning to move to the west a bit. But, I know it is still too far off for anything to be considered likely at this point.

 

[Borg]

This is nuts! All three of these storms are expected to be hurricanes by Friday.

The current track for Irma is frightening. The current forecast is a direct strike on Miami.

 

[jim hardy]

It's about as tall on the map as all of Florida.. That's a big one.

This will be an historic weather map.

 

[Aufbauwerk 2045]

I would like to see the mechanical engineers as well as others weigh in on what kind of structures, if any, can stand up to a cat 5. Among other things, I've always thought that building houses out of wood is not wise here in America. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I've read that North America has the worst weather catastrophes of any other region in the world.

I see two basic problems. We have overpopulation and global warming. The effects of overpopulation are clear enough. As for global warming, is there peer reviewed analysis showing that global warming is leading to more severe weather? I've heard there is lots of it; perhaps the weather experts can provide some good examples.

Finally, once again I link to Dr. James Powell. At the top of the page are the following two videos. For the tl;dr crowd, these are very short indeed. I wish more people would visit his site and spread the word. It might cut down on scientific ignorance regarding this question.

http://jamespowell.org/

Best wishes and good luck to all the unfortunate people who are caught up in these weather catastrophes. Kudos to the first responders and the altruistic ordinary citizens who have helped as best they can.



P.S. there are two nuclear power plants which may be in Irma's path.

 

[Aufbauwerk 2045]

Here is the National Hurricane Center's page on Irma.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#Irma

This page is useful.

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/hurricane-irma-extreme-storm-surge-threat-us-and-bahamas

Take care, Floridians and others.

 

[jim hardy]

They keep moving the predicted path Eastward Last night it was centered over Miami.

i think there's a good chance it'll miss Florida's mainland .

old jim

 

[jim hardy]

Which will get to Andros Island first - Irene or the Eastward flow ?

https://aviationweather.gov/windtemp/plot
click 'vert level' to see winds aloft

 

[Aufbauwerk 2045]

NASA has a YouTube channel with lots of videos. Here's one that shows global warming from 1880-2015.



They have released a new one for 1880-2016 which is downloadable. This page contains information and links about how they come up with it. I include the 2015 video because at least on my browser the bottom part gets cut off a bit on the NASA page.

https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/details.cgi?aid=4546

 

[Aufbauwerk 2045]

This one is interesting because it shows a guy in a wind tunnel at up to Cat 5 wind speed.

 

[Aufbauwerk 2045]

Please allow me one last post on this topic. We want to understand the science behind hurricanes. Here is a quick and simple explanation of how hurricanes form.



Here is the story in much more detail, thanks to NASA.

https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/ClimateStorms/page1.php

 

[Borg]

It looks like Florida is seriously screwed. Irma is now predicted to run straight up the middle of the state all the way to Georgia.
The only upside is that it won't be a major hurricane for very long once it's inland.

 

[jim hardy]

Hurricane season is the price you pay for those fabulous Florida winters.

Barring a last minute turn East - any substandard construction will get found out, as happened with Andrew. This one must be 4X the diameter of Andrew.

 

[Dr Transport]

Hurricane season is the price you pay for those fabulous Florida winters.

Barring a last minute turn East - any substandard construction will get found out, as happened with Andrew. This one must be 4X the diameter of Andrew.

Last description I heard was Irma was bigger than Texas...

 

[jim hardy]

Key West to Jacksonville is only 5.8 degrees