DaveC426913 said:
No, by your logic, you would deduce that, since you've never actually seen me in china, there is something preventing me from going there. You would suggest my absence is evidence of the impossibility of intercontinental flight (or at the very least, that I am on a no-fly list).
I am not
deducing anything, I am using
inductive reasoning. Do you understand the difference? I have mentioned it already and you continue to talk about deduction.
In inductive reasoning, for something to be
evidence of a hypothesis it merely needs to be more likely under the hypothesis than not. So, if time travel to now is impossible then the probability of us not seeing time travelers now is 1. If time travel to now is not impossible then the probability of us not seeing time travelers now is less than 1. Therefore, us not seeing time travelers now is, in fact, evidence in favor of time travel to now being impossible.
In contrast, by your own admission, your absence from China is due to personal choice, not the availability of air transport. So the probability of your being in China is no different under the impossibility of intercontinental flight than under its possibility. So it is, in fact, neither evidence for nor against the impossibility of intercontinental flight.
However, under the impossibility of intercontinental flight my presence in China is almost 0 probability, while under the possibility of intercontinental flight my presence in China is much more likely. Therefore my presence in China is strong evidence against the impossibility.
So inductively, factoring in all of the evidence available, we would have to conclude that intercontinental flight to China is possible and time travel to now is impossible.
DaveC426913 said:
The fact that we do not see time travelers is only evidence that not every one of the above conditions have been met. You cannot deduce the behaviour of our descendants, and then constrain their actions to a given course based on your deductions.
Fair enough (except again that I am not deducing anything). You have exposed some underlying assumptions that I have. Specifically that if technology progresses to the point that we can build a working time machine that economics would not be a factor, and that human nature would prompt the rest. Therefore I am assuming that if time travel to now is possible the probability of us not seeing any time travelers now is relatively low.
But you are correct, those are all separate assumptions and rely heavily on my view of "human nature". Your assumptions all increase the probability of us not seeing time travelers even given that time travel to now is possible, weakening the strength of the evidence. So we should disagree about the strength of the evidence, but not on the fact that it is evidence.