Vaccines: Overwhelming Benefits, Few Risks

[member 342489]

Thank you for the tip @pinball1970

 

[OmCheeto]

...
His argument was that he had never heard of anybody among his family or friends that had died from...

Reminds me of a post of mine from a few years back.

Trying to combine my thoughts from then, with this mornings mathematical ruminations, I see that we'll get back to the rates from 100 years ago, in almost exactly 15 years: July 11, 2034

I'm guessing the death rates need to get "personal", as in, "not hear say", to get people to act, responsibly.

 

[MikeeMiracle]

My friend had an alergic reaction to a vaccine he had that put him in a bad way for a few days, doctor said it was a once in a million chance, he had been alergic to the shell of the altered virus which he had been injected with.

He still firmly believes in the merits of vaccination.

 

[Dale]

That has got to be the worst. When you understand the benefits of vaccination, but cannot have them due to severe allergies

 

[Rive]

...and with that you are at the mercy of the anti-vaxers (due herd immunity threshold).

 

[Mary Conrads Sanburn]

Vaccines help everyone — even the unvaccinated

Here’s why falling vaccination rates worry doctors, cancer patients and parents of young babies

by KATHIANN KOWALSKI

APR 4, 2019
https://www.sciencenewsforstudents.org/article/vaccines-help-everyone-even-unvaccinated
Very informative article. A must read!

I'm heading to the 2019 Alameda County Fair. Makes you wonder how many people there haven't been vaccinated. My next posting in a few days will be on another topic about the wonder of Sea Ranch. U.C. Berkeley has a wonderful source of information about the history of Sea Ranch. Have a super dupper July 4th! Thanks Dale. I see you below me.

 

[pinball1970]

Thank you for the tip @pinball1970

Did you read it Brian?

 

[member 342489]

Yes I did read the article @pinball1970

Reading it, and others, have made me review my opinion, but I'm still struggeling, with how to deal with the forced vaccination.
The term forced always makes me think, then how to deal with denial.
I read, an opinion, where non-vaccinated, but un-infected people should be isolated from society, to secure herd-immunity. That is a very scary opinion, and sounds almost like some sci-fi movie.
I am from Europe. We could face even more migration, caused by climate change. Africa does not seem like the most vaccinated area of the world, is herd-immunity even possible with such a scenario?PS: My current opinion ;-)

I am pro a government vaccination program, to try to eleminate the threat from some special infecteous, and dangerous deseases.

I am pro, that a doctors opinion should be heard, if you have doubts, and I now believe, that some moderate pressure from society, like a fine, is ok.

I am pro isolating sick people from society, until a doctor says ok for them to return.

 

[Orodruin]

Africa does not seem like the most vaccinated area of the world, is herd-immunity even possible with such a scenario?

This statement is quite prejudiced. Global vaccination programs reach many in Africa as well. How do you think diseases such as polio are fought? There is only one country left in Africa where polio is endemic, the Democratic republic of Congo.

I am pro isolating sick people from society, until a doctor says ok for them to return.

And as you have been told already, this does not work due to incubation times for highly contagious diseases such as measles. By the time you would realize that someone has been infected, they can already have infected several other people and so the measure would not stop the outbreak.

I am pro, that a doctors opinion should be heard, if you have doubts, and I now believe, that some moderate pressure from society, like a fine, is ok.

A fine does not stop the spread of the disease. A person without any medical counter indications that chooses not to get vaccinated is knowingly endangering fellow human beings. Would you allow people to carry around bombs that would randomly (even with a very small frequency) go off in crowded areas just because they have deeply convinced themselves that it is the right thing to do? Of course you would not, in many societies that would be criminal.

 

[Dale]

I read, an opinion, where non-vaccinated, but un-infected people should be isolated from society, to secure herd-immunity. That is a very scary opinion

That was my opinion. Why is that scary? Quarantine would be entirely at their choice. If they do not enjoy being in quarantine at any time all they have to do is be vaccinated.

I do, of course, recognize that this is an untenable position. The better position is simply to make vaccination mandatory. However, in the event that someone insists on having the choice, then that is the choice that I think should be offered. It is the only choice that doesn’t deliberately put others at risk, particularly those medically unable to receive vaccinations.

 

[StoneTemplePython]

This statement is quite prejudiced. Global vaccination programs reach many in Africa as well. How do you think diseases such as polio are fought? There is only one country left in Africa where polio is endemic, the Democratic republic of Congo.

of interest:
https://www.economist.com/science-a.../08/progress-on-eradicating-polio-has-stalled

(I hope there's still 2 free online articles per month and not everything is behind a pay wall)

 

[Orodruin]

of interest:
https://www.economist.com/science-a.../08/progress-on-eradicating-polio-has-stalled

(I hope there's still 2 free online articles per month and not everything is behind a pay wall)

You can also just visit the page of the global polio eradication program that I linked earlier in this thread for the latest statistics.

 

[member 342489]

That was my opinion. Why is that scary? Quarantine would be entirely at their choice. If they do not enjoy being in quarantine at any time all they have to do is be vaccinated.

I do, of course, recognize that this is an untenable position. The better position is simply to make vaccination mandatory. However, in the event that someone insists on having the choice, then that is the choice that I think should be offered.

Scary because I don't think it is realistic to convince all.
A lot of people still visits and moves to vaccinated countries.
The herd-immunity of 95% seems unrealistic within the modern structure of society, imo.
In a scenatio, with perhaps 10-15% of society, that denied taking the vaccine, then exatly how would you isolate those? I don't imagine them doing it voluntarily.

 

[Orodruin]

The herd-immunity of 95% seems unrealistic within the modern structure of society, imo.

And you are basing this on what information? This is not something that you can should have unsubstantiated opinion on. If everybody that are medically fit for the vaccine get the vaccine, herd immunity is not problematic to achieve.

 

[member 342489]

And you are basing this on what information? This is not something that you can should have unsubstantiated opinion on. If everybody that are medically fit for the vaccine get the vaccine, herd immunity is not problematic to achieve.

This is based on nothing more than everyday experiences.
Where I live, we have a lot of rules, and crime.
When people break the rules and commit crime, we try to catch them, but with very little luck.
A lot among the anti-vax movement are also active within the radical western political movements, where trust to governments are low or non-existing.
Like I said earlier, the potentially growing number of refugees, are also hard to control and to secure vaccinated.

but yeah, perhaps not very solid evidence,

 

[Orodruin]

Like I said earlier, the potentially growing number of refugees, are also hard to control and to secure vaccinated.

Why? Do you think vaccines do not exist in other countries? It is not difficult to secure vaccination.

80% of all the world's children are vaccinated against measles.


Granted, that is less than the 95% required for herd immunity, but the 20% are mainly in the absolutely hardest to reach areas.

 

[member 342489]

Why? Do you think vaccines do not exist in other countries? It is not difficult to secure vaccination.

80% of all the world's children are vaccinated against measles.


Granted, that is less than the 95% required for herd immunity, but the 20% are mainly in the absolutely hardest to reach areas.

I got confused with many inputs, some while I posted.

I did not know, that africa are so well vaccinated, happy to hear, that. :-)

 

[Mary Conrads Sanburn]

My father-in-law just passed away due to the flu. He was 92 years old. He had been taking a flu shot for many years. I'm so sad. It's been a rough road. I've never had a flu shot in my life and I am over 60 years.

Hope to get back to Sea Ranch later as I mentioned. I love being around the sea.

 

[MikeeMiracle]

The flu is one of the fastest mutating virus out there. When flu vaccines are being made for the year ahead they have to guess which varients will be most prevailent that year a long time beforehand so they can be manufactured and distributed. It's hard to guess which ones to protect against.

 

[Nik_2213]

I'd an unhappy reputation at work for catching seasonal flu a couple of weeks before our free vaccination was due...
FWIW, I did get the 'decadal' pneumonia vaccination. Like the seasonal flu mix, it gives limited protection against the most aggressive strains. But, worst case, should a hospital calls 'Code Black', your vaccinated status provides valuable triage points. You're more likely to get treatment than those hapless anti-vaxxers on the gurneys in the corridor...

 

[oldexpat]

Your right to swing your arm ends where my nose begins.

 

[Orodruin]

Your right to swing your arm ends where my nose begins.

Not if you otherwise threaten the well being of me or others. Such as if your nose has the potential to spread a deadly and highly contagious pathogen to unsuspecting fellow humans.

 

[Lewis Goudy]

On a rational level I completely agree with the standard approach to vaccination and I recognize that any adverse effects to vaccines have been historically limited.

I am conflicted about the personal liberty aspect of this and, while it may be true that 'most' 'anti-vaxxers' are 'fundamentalist' I think that things are more nuanced than this. First, I think 'anti-vaxxer' itself is an oversimplification and that there are well-educated folk who have good reason for questioning the standard vaccine protocols that might be labeled as this even though they are not against vaccines, but question the timing and safety of some vaccines based on the current CDC guidelines.

As I said above, I don't follow this stuff much and am not very knowledgeable about the details. However, my wife is a doctor (veterinarian) and she is. In her practice (which schedules 60 minute appointments so that is already unusual) she discusses the potential risks of vaccine protocols with clients and that is just for dogs and cats. So, my understanding is that there is some risk involved with vaccination based on genetics and other aspects of health. I think that risk associated with medical treatment should be communicated to patients and if certain factors put a person at high risk of complications I support the person's right to refuse treatment.

>there is some risk involved<
I think this is another example of a proxy domain in which the genesis of conflict is ideological disagreement about the nature of risk and how its management ought to addressed (and by whom). Here the radical fundamentalists are those who ignorantly suppose that we could live risk-free lives in a risk-free world were it not for Monsanto/the medical establishment/the nuclear cartel/capitalism/etc. ad infinitum and further suppose that mere identification of risk ought suffice to prompt expenditure to mitigate. To suggest that mitigation ought follow assessment brands you an ally of the vast boogie conspiracy of whatever their particular boogieman happens to be (vaccines, gmo crops, nuclear power, fluoridation, etc.) Believing you have an unfair advantage (ironically true enough, but rather than informed by fact and reason they assume you have been paid off by [insert applicable vested interest(s) here], they engage in a no-holds-barred war to capture opinion. The anti-nukes have developed rhetoric into a martial art, notably the "gish gallop"--relying on the fact that bunking is cheaper and faster than debunking they are often very effective in time-limited arenas like town hall meetings, spewing BS faster than it can be shoveled off the platform. Thus fear, uncertainty, and doubt recruit while understanding and equity recede.

 

[russ_watters]

>there is some risk involved<
I think this is another example of a proxy domain in which the genesis of conflict is ideological disagreement about the nature of risk and how its management ought to addressed (and by whom). Here the radical fundamentalists are those who ignorantly suppose that we could live risk-free lives in a risk-free world were it not for Monsanto/the medical establishment/the nuclear cartel/capitalism/etc. ad infinitum

I definirely agree, but if anything I think it's even more fundamental: people just don't understand and don't care to learn about or attempt to do risk analysis. Big/intense problems are a matter of emotions/feelings, to be dealt with in a way that feels good, not by analyzing the risk and finding the best solution.

That's the only way I can make any sense of in particular the anti-vax and anti-nuclear stances.

...let's try to keep the political stuff out of this, though and just focus on technical examples.

 

[Lewis Goudy]

I definitely agree, but if anything I think it's even more fundamental: people just don't understand and don't care to learn about or attempt to do risk analysis. Big/intense problems are a matter of emotions/feelings, to be dealt with in a way that feels good, not by analyzing the risk and finding the best solution.

That's the only way I can make any sense of in particular the anti-vax and anti-nuclear stances.

...let's try to keep the political stuff out of this, though and just focus on technical examples.

I am alive to the sense and purpose of your closing caveat, as well as to the fact that political stuff is at some level both technical and unavoidable. Just as justice delayed is justice denied, so procrastination and temporizing can serve to kick the can down the road long enough that somebody else gets to deal with it (surviving, perhaps thriving, as a species) because you get to die first. I'm not sure who remarked that science makes progress one funeral at a time, but I think that there is a duality here regarding progress in the moral domain. That said, I hear you and won't need a second admonishment.

Understanding risk is not easy. I took a course in ANOVA that used Henry Scheffé's text and remarked to a doctoral candidate in statistics that it was hard to read. He nodded and grimaced. "Scheffé's a b****h." Truth told, so is statistics. When given unlimited time, professionals score 100% on examinations testing mastery of counterintuitive results, but when time is constrained their performance decays to that of the man in the street and *they give the same wrong answers*. We appear to be hard-wired to misapprehend risk, and I suspect the mechanism of confirmation bias is related to this.

 

[Vanadium 50]

their particular boogieman

I think you mean "bogeyman". "Boogieman" is associated with KC and the Sunshine Band.

 

[Lewis Goudy]

I think you mean "bogeyman". "Boogieman" is associated with KC and the Sunshine Band.

Suggest you get back to me after a glance at Safire's typically workmanlike treatment. http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/editorials/archives/2004/02/01/2003097080
No Bogart but she was a dead ringer for Lauren Bacall.

 

[pinball1970]

There is another thread on pf about a promising treatment for Ebola. It is based on a mixture of antibodies that attack the virus. This is not a vaccine as it is curative rather than preventative but I would be curious what the anti vaxer view would be. Vaccines stimulate the immune system via harmless versions of the target virus ( dead/attenuated) This treatment gives the antibodies directly.

 

[pinball1970]

I think you mean "bogeyman". "Boogieman" is associated with KC and the Sunshine Band.

Agreed Boogie nights Boogie wonderland = Heat wave / 1970s Earth wind and fire ridiculous clothes. Boo as in two
Bogey at 9 o clock, Bogus = fake, Bogeyman mythical man. The o as in toe.
Americans say bogeyman as in bug, Buggie in the UK is child's pram

 

[WWGD]

Reminds me of a post of mine from a few years back.

Trying to combine my thoughts from then, with this mornings mathematical ruminations, I see that we'll get back to the rates from 100 years ago, in almost exactly 15 years: July 11, 2034

View attachment 246134

I'm guessing the death rates need to get "personal", as in, "not hear say", to get people to act, responsibly.

When will that happen with the Corona virus? Hard to even know the number of cases.

 

[OmCheeto]

When will that happen with the Corona virus?

To act responsibly? Or when will this get "personal"?
I don't know that there's anything people can do about it, as there's no vaccine.

According to the charts @ wiki, and my always suspicious maths, the entire world will be infected in approximately 35 days: March 2nd, 2020.
At which point we will each have 1 chance in 35 of dying.

Though, I suspect it won't be quite this grim.
It will be interesting though.
I just spent about an hour skimming through the Washington Post's "coronavirus-china-latest-updates" article.
Wow!

 

[Rive]

...At which point we will each have 1 chance in 35 of dying.

Though, I suspect it won't be quite this grim.

Erm. That time with the H1N1 it was 'interesting' to see the difference between countries. Ukraine got it worst as I recall: once the hospitals got overrun with patients the mortality peaked several times over the 'normal' value.

 

[OmCheeto]

Erm. That time with the H1N1 it was 'interesting' to see the difference between countries. Ukraine got it worst as I recall: once the hospitals got overrun with patients the mortality peaked several times over the 'normal' value.

From the graph, it is my guess that some countries didn't bother going to much trouble diagnosing who had it.
While other countries, Italy and France in particular, seemed to be giving out candy for each confirmed case.

data source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_flu_pandemic_by_country

ps. It's odd, but I have no recollection of the 2009 pandemic.

 

[Rive]

From the graph, it is my guess that some countries didn't bother going to much trouble diagnosing who had it.

No mention there about the amount of actual tests performed and the population per countries: without that it's difficult to take that 'statistics' seriously...

Belarus: 86% dead among the confirmed cases
Guess they made the test only on patients already on intensive care with pneumonia.

ps. It's odd, but I have no recollection of the 2009 pandemic.

It was quite an odd pandemic, actually. I think we got off easy that time.
I had some bouts 'at home' against some anti-vaxers, that's why I have more memories.

 

[OmCheeto]

No mention there about the amount of actual tests performed and the population per countries: without that it's difficult to take that 'statistics' seriously...

Belarus: 86% dead among the confirmed cases
Guess they made the test only on patients already on intensive care with pneumonia.It was quite an odd pandemic, actually. I think we got off easy that time.
I had some bouts 'at home' against some anti-vaxers, that's why I have more memories.

If one counts the number of deaths compared to the entire population, the oddballs get lost in the data.

It looks like Columbia was in the middle with 5.3 deaths per million population. That's about 1 in 200,000. That seems like a very low rate to me. It's no wonder I don't remember it.

 

[WWGD]

With Venezuela in the condition its in now, seems a plague would have free rein there, with people weakened by hunger and the extreme shortage of most basic medicines. Maybe similar for others like NK.

 

[fresh_42]

According to the charts @ wiki, and my always suspicious maths, the entire world will be infected in approximately 35 days: March 2nd, 2020.
At which point we will each have 1 chance in 35 of dying.

I took the chance and added a SIR calculator on
https://www.physicsforums.com/threa...h-physics-earth-and-other-curiosities.970262/

 

[BWV]

Regardless of who gets infected the odds of dying remain constant at 100%

 

[WWGD]

Regardless of who gets infected the odds of dying remain constant at 100%

You mean for the Corona virus? And for now?

 

[PAllen]

You mean for the Corona virus? And for now?

Birth is a 100% fatal condition.

 

[BillTre]

Life is a terminal disease.

 

[fresh_42]

Life is a terminal disease.

$a.a.$

 

[WWGD]

$a.a.$

Almost Always?

 

[fresh_42]

Almost Always?

Well, there are rumors ...

 

[WWGD]

Bah, I keep falling for the same.

 

[Nik_2213]

IIRC, SARS' lethal cytokine storm was thwarted by canny Canadian medics who treated it with steroids per 'normal' pneumonia. (*)

But, making a zillion doses ASAP then delivering them to affected areas is non-trivial...

*) Speaking of 'normal' threats, you have had your 'seasonal' 'flu vaccination and your 'decadal' pneumonia equivalent ? Be real-silly to dodge the nasty nCV, but succumb to something so easily prevented or mitigated.

Worst case, if your hospital goes 'Code Black', those vaccinations may earn you potentially life-saving triage points, unto 'Is Worth Treating'...

 

[Bandersnatch]

Life is a terminal disease.

Luckily, its basic reproduction number has been declining worldwide.

Spoiler

 

[WWGD]

Luckily, its basic reproduction number has been declining worldwide.

Spoiler

View attachment 256294

Unfortunately, the decrease is not equally weighted between the developed and non-developed countries. Ethiopia and Nigeria alone will be adding a total of some 340 million people by 2050 ; 120 and 220 million respective ly, per CIA's world factbook.

 

[Bandersnatch]

@WWGD that's total change in population (in this analogy ~total number of infected individuals). Their fertility rate drop is among the sharpest.

 

[WWGD]

@WWGD that's total change in population (in this analogy ~total number of infected individuals). Their fertility rate drop is among the sharpest.

By fertility rate you mean the average number of children?