What's your comment on the debate between Bush and Kerry?

[BobG]

There's a warped part of my phsyci that's rubbing it's hands in anticipation of the surprises of October...any guesses as to what they might be?

A new explanation for Bush's pauses, facial expressions, and hunched posture during the first debate, perhaps?

http://www.salon.com/news/feature/2004/10/08/bulge/index_np.html
http://www.electoral-vote2.com/images/bulge.jpg

 

[Moonbear]

A new explanation for Bush's pauses, facial expressions, and hunched posture during the first debate, perhaps?

http://www.salon.com/news/feature/2004/10/08/bulge/index_np.html
http://www.electoral-vote2.com/images/bulge.jpg

I've seen people posting this elsewhere, mostly the image shown in the first link. From that one, I just thought it was nothing more than an odd wrinkle in his jacket when he leaned forward. The second link has an image with a touch better clarity. It actually looks more like he may be wearing a bullet-proof vest under his clothing. That might seem like a reasonable security precaution for a president. But, it still could just be the fabric of his jacket pulling in a funny way. It's a silly rumor that anyone was feeding him answers.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Is everyone ready for number two?

If Kerry kicks butt again tonight, Bush is in deep doo doo. I really expect Kerry to do better here than in the last debate but he had more to prove last time - he needed to look presidential, and strong - so the impact may not be so great; even if he does very well. I also think Kerry stands a better chance of getting too complicated and losing people this time. Bush may crash and burn on the facts.

 

[graphic7]

I'm looking forward very much to this debate tonight. There shouldn't be so much repetition considering that tonight's debate is not about foreign policy - Iraq, in general. I'm going to be watching to see if Kerry or Bush stray from the subject matter and go into some foreign issue, Iraq, for example.

But as you said, Ivan, Kerry is going to have to be very careful not to complicate things. Edwards was even having a hard time defining the 'global test' quote. I think as long as Kerry stays with the facts, he's got Bush beat.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Bush is now officially the first president in 72 years to lose jobs on his watch - John Kerry; responding to today's jobs report

So we have the greatest blunder in foreign policy, and the greatest failure in creating jobs in 72 years. Bush is quickly gaining historical status.

Edit: misquote, sorry about that.

 

[Gokul43201]

I think Bush'll do better this time. For one thing, he'll be better prepared, and will be coached to not repeat his earlier screw-ups. And it's a more informal setting, and the speakers get feedback from the audience. Bush thrives on that. Kerry tends to be more professorish, which worked well for the formal, strictly regulated first debate, but could work against him now.

 

[klusener]

I think this has been a good start for Kerry, but Bush has really learned some few lessons from the last debate: not look like a chimpanzee and not smirk a lot...

 

[graphic7]

Bush made himself look like a child when he violated the rules.

 

[Moonbear]

Bush made himself look like a child when he violated the rules.

He's proving that he's impatient and impulsive by continually jumping up and rebutting when the moderator hasn't allowed it. But, I agree, he's learned some lessons from last time. Was pretty fidgety in the beginning, and still seemed to be making some faces...I think he was trying hard to not smirk. Instead of smirking, he's spending some time thinking about his answers while Kerry is talking.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

If you're a Redsocks fan? whoops!

 

[Ivan Seeking]

On the other hand, "if you want to be popular in the halls of Europe...". Bush's language towards Europe has been harsh at least twice.

Spin: How do you build a coalition if you insult your allies?

Bush is not making sense. He stated or implied that taxing small business owners [making over 200,000 per year] through personal income tax reduces expansion and hiring. This is not true. The personal tax only affects net income after operating expenses - including employee salaries and benefits.

 

[Moonbear]

He never answered that question about mending the hard feelings of our allies (or is that former allies) toward us, instead he told us that he made a lot of unpopular decisions. Duh! We knew that part, that's why they asked the question. So, I guess no plan to fix it.

He also had a tough time answering about the environment. His entire speech pattern changed from the tone he's held the rest of the debate.

 

[Moonbear]

Just to be fair here...Kerry has also stumbled a few times in this debate. Both times dealing with medical issues. First on medicare, the second on stem cell research. It's clear that his strength is not in understanding medicine or medical research.

 

[motai]

A minute or two ago Bush said he wanted to follow a "strict constructionist" version of the U.S. Constitution... the only problem is that nothing new could be done without adding an amendment to the U.S. Constitution.

Anyway, I thought this issue was debated and decided on (with loose constructionist winning) between Alexander Hamilton and Thomas Jefferson...

 

[Spectre32]

My favorite was the Lumber yard commen, from Kerry to bush.. That was almost as classic as the "Global Test" statement.. Or Edwards bringing in Dick's gay daughter

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Regarding worman who asked about abortion: You can see in her eyes that this issue is everything. This I think drives a large portion of Bush devotees. For a large percentage of those who support Bush on this issue, I doubt anything else really matters.

 

[Moonbear]

I'm watching audience faces too. Most just look bored, but I've seen a few looking like they were in pain during these last few questions on abortion.

 

[Moonbear]

Regarding worman who asked about abortion: You can see in her eyes that this issue is everything. This I think drives a large portion of Bush devotees. For those who support Bush on this issue, I doubt anything else really matters.

I think there certainly is a group of voters who do base their decision entirely on this issue. I wonder why they think it's okay to send young men out to Iraq to kill and be killed. It's this inconsistency that bugs me about this more than that these people have a different opinion of when life or personhood begins.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

I predict that Kerry wins the debate: 55%, 45%.

Kerry gains another 0.2% in the popular vote over the next seven days.

I'm sure someone can find a poll that agrees with my prediction. :tongue2:

...[edit] I'm guessing it won't be kat.

 

[Gokul43201]

Okay folks...end of part II.

 

[Moonbear]

This one was at least a lot closer than the last one. No embarrassing performance by Bush. I think 45% will go to each side and 10% will say it was a tie. We need JimmyP over here to give us the odds on our bets

 

[HazZy]

I think there certainly is a group of voters who do base their decision entirely on this issue. I wonder why they think it's okay to send young men out to Iraq to kill and be killed. It's this inconsistency that bugs me about this more than that these people have a different opinion of when life or personhood begins.

maybe because the men and women in iraq made a choice to join the military? comparing the two simply isn't realistic.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

This one was at least a lot closer than the last one. No embarrassing performance by Bush. I think 45% will go to each side and 10% will say it was a tie. We need JimmyP over here to give us the odds on our bets

all tie votes go to Kerry. :tongue2:

Really, it will probably go down as a tie.

 

[kawikdx225]

Mark just said Kerry is full of BS about Patriot act! :rofl:

 

[selfAdjoint]

I think Kerry will go up a few points, but not because of this debate. Some of the questions and answers were a litttle technical, and I think by the end only the partisans were watching. The Kerry bounce has a little further to go based on the events of this week (the WMd report, Bremer, etc., not to mention the jobs disappointment). Whether that and the expected drop in Bush's popularity will carry through to election day is anybody's guess.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

It is a classic American horse race. In spite of my feelings about Bush, I love watching the process and drama as it unfolds - democracy in action - with each candidate grasping for those undecided votes. Each trying to say exactly the right things to the right people in the right way...each trying to walk a tight-rope and balance the truth with spin...great stuff!

 

[Gokul43201]

I believe I'm the only one here that thinks Kerry did a lot better this time.

 

[Tigers2B1]

Well I'll add this --- the farts over at the Democratic Underground (a heavily traveled Internet Board) are once again fouling the 'vote as you go' Internet instant polls with their planned gang bangs. It's Kerry in a landslide! Hell, Kerry could have killed a baby on TV and it would have been 'Kerry by a landslide' with those half-wits. What a pissing contest.

 

[Gokul43201]

So just ignore the internet polls, as any sensible person would anyway.

 

[Moonbear]

Well I'll add this --- the farts over at the Democratic Underground (a heavily traveled Internet Board) are once again fouling the 'vote as you go' Internet instant polls with their planned gang bangs. It's Kerry in a landslide! Hell, Kerry could have killed a baby on TV and it would have been 'Kerry by a landslide' with those half-wits. What a pissing contest.

What's to say the rabid rightwing aren't doing the same thing? (And before anyone jumps on me for this, I'm not referring to all conservatives, not even most, but the counterpart to the rabid left...but that doesn't have the same ring of alliteration...who think it's going to make a difference to vote a few thousand times on the internet polls). I have to say this is the first election that I've followed so closely. I've never been very interested in politics, and have always been one of those people undecided until the last moment, mostly because I'm a cynic and don't trust any politician to keep their promises. But, with this one, it's really fun to follow. Or maybe it's because I have a stronger opinion of one candidate over the other in advance.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

an early return from Nightline:
Kerry: 44%
Bush: 41%
Tie: 13%

there were slighty more democrats than republicans polled.

Edit: Charley Gibson was just talking about the rules for the debate. There were 52 lines of text that described how the coin toss would be handled. :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

 

[BobG]

I saw an edge for Bush in delivery. He cleaned up a lot of mistakes from the first debate. Moving around the stage improves his delivery. His messages are simple.

Both misuse numbers badly. Bush tosses out the number of jobs created over the last year, Kerry tosses out the number of jobs lost over the past 4 years (and limits his number to a particular class of jobs, at that). Neither are particularly relevant in themselves. There's a reason for that. People don't handle numbers very well.

A more effective number for Kerry would really be how many jobs/month does the economy have to add for a healthy economy? How many jobs were added? Except, that raises questions that can't be answered in 2 minutes - why does the economy have to add 170,000 jobs/month? Instead they opt for the numbers that are easier to explain.

Numbers really created problems for them when Charlie Gibson pressed them on how they plan to cut the deficit with no new taxes. (That's because neither will.)

The lasting impression from the first debate was "It's hard work" being President. The lasting impression from the second debate is "I have a plan." But, can you summarize that plan in clear, simple terms in less than 2 minutes?

Rather than try to explain the numbers or nuances of why you supported or opposed a particular bill, it's more important to get your overall view across. I thought Bush did a better job at that. If he loses this debate, it's because people don't believe in him anymore, not because he didn't get his message across.

 

[Gokul43201]

Both misuse numbers badly. Bush tosses out the number of jobs created over the last year, Kerry tosses out the number of jobs lost over the past 4 years (and limits his number to a particular class of jobs, at that).

What I find surprising is that neither of them debunks the fallacious statistics of the other.

Okay, for instance, this one struck me as a little odd : Bush keeps claiming that he's created 1.8 million new jobs this year. The last I remember (I think according to the 2000 census), the population growth rate was a little over 1%. Now 1.8 million is 1.2% of the total workforce of about 150 million. So, it seems to me that the job creation rate is just about keeping pace with the population growth.

Nothing to write home about...unless I'm making a mistake somewhere.

 

[wasteofo2]

What I find surprising is that neither of them debunks the fallacious statistics of the other.

Okay, for instance, this one struck me as a little odd : Bush keeps claiming that he's created 1.8 million new jobs this year. The last I remember (I think according to the 2000 census), the population growth rate was a little over 1%. Now 1.8 million is 1.2% of the total workforce of about 150 million. So, it seems to me that the job creation rate is just about keeping pace with the population growth.

Nothing to write home about...unless I'm making a mistake somewhere.

When your previous years saw the loss of millions of jobs, any net growth of jobs is something to write home about.

It's like when a 2 year old learns not to crap their pants anymore.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Okay its time for number three.

Is this where Kerry takes a defintive lead, or blows it? Will Bush keep his cool; and are his batteries charged? Expectations are high on both sides, and whatever happens, Tim Russert expects the race to open up after this - with a clear leader emerging before the election.