Republican for 2008 depends on Bush's next four years. Right now, his victory is as much a mandate for the religous right as it is that any war against an Islamic country is a war against terrorism.
Most likely candidates:
Bill Frist - would have some appeal to the religous right, fiscal conservatives, and reasonable enough not to alienate the moderates. If Bush's second term goes well, Frist could ride the momentum to a 2008 victory.
Chuck Hagel - mainstream conservative, enough of an independent streak to take over John McCain's role. He may overdo the independent bit, though. While Lugar pretty much did his job and stated his honest opinion of the state of things in Iraq, Hagel did a pretty enthusiastic dance about how bad things were.
Rudy Giuliani or George Pataki - very moderate Republicans. A lot of appeal to the general public if Bush's foreign policies aren't successful (the far right wing of the Republican party follows Bush right down the tubes). Additional advantage is avoiding the detailed history that senators have to lug around. Problem is, if they have to distance themselves from the president in power then things aren't going very well for Republicans in general.
Others:
Jeb Bush - I think we'd need a reality check for this one. However, if one of Bush's sons had to make a run for president, I wish it would have been this one. At least he accomplished a little on his own.
McCain's big chance was 2000 - he'll be to old in 2008 to make a serious run.
Powell has shown no willingness to run and I don't see that changing.
Democrats have to rethink and regroup. Can any non-southern democrat win the election?
John Edwards - main disadvantage was the perception he might be a little too shallow to weather a year long campaign; that repeating the same message over and over isn't enough to win an election. Dems may rethink that idea and decide a shallow southern Democrat may be the perfect candidate. The funny thing is that while being a southern Democrat may give the idea that he's at least a moderate, he's actually liberal enough to appeal even to the Dean fans.
Beyond Edwards, the dems need someone drastically new. Bringing out the old gang of Kerry, Hillary, Gore, Gephardt, Dean or Lieberman just won't do.
- Hillary might actually be the most conservative of the lot, but carries a lot of baggage from her hubby. Plus, NY Democratic Senator just gives an overwhelming feeling of a very left wing liberal.
- Lieberman is the least hated (and maybe the most respected), but his likableness is somewhat due to not being able to generate much passion in anyone.
- Gore. Get real.
- Gephardt. Could appeal to mainstream dems, but if Frist is the Republican nominee, I'd think they'd want someone to fill the middle.
- Kerry. If you lose to the Republican that Democrats hate most, can they forgive him?
- Dean made his run. I don't see him carrying enough respect to make a repeat performance.
Wesley Clark was a one-time fling and never a very realistic one at that.
Possible new blood:
Barack Obama - 2008 is probably too soon for him to make a serious run.
Anyone else? I don't normally follow Democrats that much in spite of my anti-Bush sentiments.
