It is not luck, it's cleverness.
That's my point. Denying the assumption that things happen for some "reason" would mean that F = ma is just a lucky guess, but as you say, it's not luck.
But that doesn't mean they tell us what can or cannot happen; it only means most known phenomena can be accounted for by existing laws because that is what the laws were made for in the first place.
This is wrong, to a degree. Scientific laws are not just clever tricks that are hard to falsify. What makes them hard to falsify? They are very easy to falsify, theoretically. If a law is correct (i.e. if the law we believe is an actual law of physics) then it will obviously be impossible to prove false, but that's not what we mean when we talk about "falsifiable." Of course, we don't demand that all of our laws are false - those that are true cannot be shown false. But there must be a method that could be used to show it is false if it really were. A cleverly worded hypothesis might be impossible to falsify, even in theory. However, F = ma can be falsified. Measure the mass and acceleration of an object as you apply a force to it. If the equation doesn't work, then either account for the hidden force, or accept that the law is wrong. If we can prove that there are no hidden forces (and I believe things like this aren't impossible to prove, Bell supposedly proved something like this with respect to local causes of random quantum events) then we have falsified F = ma. So it's not just "cleverness".
If we propose F = ma because we notice things in our labs work that way, and then we find that when we observe stars millions of miles away, they behave in accordance with the very same equation, then the equation is not just clever wording, it is a good general prediction of physical phenomena. And although our physical laws cannot tell us with absolute certainty whether something will happen or can't happen, it is
very reasonable to make predictions based on scientific laws than based on nothing, as though scientific laws give us no better understanding than if there were nothing.
Science does not give us certainty, but we do use scientific laws to predict physical phenomena every day. If F = ma were just a clever guess, and weren't really a reliable tool for prediction, then engineers couldn't do all the things they do today safely. The science of electronic circuits allows us to design and build computers. If those laws confered no power to predict on us, then we would be no worse of just randomly soldering chips together. But we don't. We can look at the laws and principles, design on paper a chip whose behaviour and efficiency we can predict, and then proceed to build it.
So why do people often say "that cannot happen because it violates the laws of physics"?
Because if people were to prepend every claim with "Although there is the possibility that things will be otherwise, it is very reasonalbe to believe that..." it would get annoying. If someone says something like "this cannot happen because of the laws of physics" and you decide to be the pedant and say, "ah, but there's a chance that the laws we think are right, are actually wrong," most people do indeed realize this and will say something like, "yeah, yeah, of course they may be wrong, but you're just being pedantic... I'll trust scientific claims about gravity and human biology and won't jump off this cliff, but go ahead and do it if you think anyone should bother considering the slight chance that the laws are wrong and you'll be able to fly once you jump off." There is of course the possibility that laws are wrong, but this possibility is irrelevant in everyday conversation. This doesn't mean people deny the possibility, they just don't waste time considering it every step of the wa