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microsansfil said:it seems to me that you have also an other possibility develop by E.T.Jaynes "probability theory as an extension of logic". In this context probability is not reduce to random variables.
That's the Bayesian view where its how plausible something is.
What you do is come up with reasonable axioms on what plausibility should be like - these are the so called Cox axioms. They are logically equivalent to the Kolmogorov axioms where exactly what probability is is left undefined.
Ballentine bases it on those axioms but called it propensity - which isn't really how Coxes axioms are usually viewed. It's logically sound since its equivalent to Kolomogorovs axioms - just a bit different.
In applied math what's usually done is simply to associate this abstract thing called probability defined by the Kolmogerov axioms with independent events. Then you have this thing called the law of large numbers (and its a theorem derivable from those axioms) which basically says if you do a large number of trials the proportion of outcomes tends toward the probability. That's how you make concrete this abstract thing and its certainly how I suspect most people tend to view it.
Basically what Ballentine does it look at probability as a kind of propensity obeying the Cox axioms. Then he uses the law of large numbers to justify his ensemble idea.
There is no logical issues with this, but personally I wouldn't have used propensity - simply an undefined thing as per Kolomogorov's axioms.
But really its no big deal.
Thanks
Bill
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