Why P(A|B') not P(A)-P(A n B)?

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The discussion centers on the distinction between conditional probability P(A|B') and the expression P(A) - P(A ∩ B). It clarifies that P(A|B') is calculated within a probability space where event B does not occur, while P(A) - P(A ∩ B) still considers the entire sample space, including B. The key point is that the two expressions refer to different probability spaces, which is crucial for accurate calculations. The misunderstanding arises from not accounting for the implications of excluding B from the sample space when calculating P(A|B'). Understanding these differences is essential for correctly applying probability concepts.
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I know the equations that P(A|B') = P(AnB) / P(B')

But why isn't it P(A) - P(A n B)

See photo attachment

We know b didn't happen so isn't it just A minus the middle?
 

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P(A)=P(A ∩ B )+P(A ∩ B')
P(A|B')=P(A ∩ B')/P(B')

Your version will hold only of P(B')=1.
 
Specifically, P(A | B^{C}) := P(A) - P(A \cap B) would still include B in the sample space. Given that B hasn't happen, you don't want B in the sample space.
 
CAH said:
I know the equations that P(A|B') = P(AnB) / P(B')

But why isn't it P(A) - P(A n B)

In an expression for probability P(S), there are more things involved that the set S. The expression for a probability involves (perhaps implicitly) a particular "probability space". The expressions P(A|B') and P(A \cap B') both refer to the same set. However, they refer to different probability spaces. In the probability space for P(A|B') no events in A \cap B exist. In the probability space for A \cap B' , events in A \cap B may exist and may be assigned nonzero probabilities.

Your reasoning with the Venn diagram doesn't include the information about what sets are in the two different probability spaces.
 
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