News Will Palin's VP Debate Performance Impact McCain's Campaign?

[Art]

The purpose of disinformation campaigns (swift-boating, smears, etc) is to hype up the already-committed people, who will not bother to dig up the back-story or do any fact-checking, and will pass the lies on as if they were truth. Political dirty tricks do not play by any ethical rules, nor do they have to adhere to what we might expect as a "standard of proof" even in very loose non-scientific fields. In fact, the less-believable the claim, the more tenaciously the faithful hold them. Have you not gotten a forwarded email from someone you know claiming that Obama's view are the same as his Christian pastor of ~20 years and then gotten another forwarded email from that same person claiming that Obama is a Muslim? Logical consistency has little place in the minds of people who love political attacks.

Unfortunately what you say is true but my personal choice is to not feed the monster and urge others to do the same.

Often the purpose of these campaigns is to goad the accused into a response to put them on the defensive so to my mind to show absolutely no reaction deprives the authors of their goal.

 

[LowlyPion]

Unfortunately what you say is true but my personal choice is to not feed the monster and urge others to do the same.

Often the purpose of these campaigns is to goad the accused into a response to put them on the defensive so to my mind to show absolutely no reaction deprives the authors of their goal.

This was Kerry's tactic with the Swift Boaters at first and it likely ended up hurting him. I think direct assault should be met with direct responses to deny them oxygen.

What about the rumors of McCain having an affair with Vicki Iseman?
He was able to dismiss those by taking them head on. Here is a transcript of that Press Conference.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/02/21/AR2008022101410.html

Answering is by far the better approach. There is no question that if he lied he gave Iseman a powerful lever over his candidacy. If he lied, his legacy is toast.

 

[Alfi]

So far I like the Obama response of 'keep the children out of policy '
She can implode all by herself and needs no help.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Palin's daughter should be kept out of this. I can only imagine what it must be like for a seventeen year old girl to have her pregnancy made national news! I feel so bad for her.

But, as for the McCain's choice, I haven't quit laughing since I read Palin's bio. This alone will probably kill any chance of winning that he had.

I missed part of the Mclaughlin group this week, but apparently Eleanor Clift stated that the entire newsroom broke out in laughter when the Palin annnouncement was made.

This will slowlly speak volumes to McCain's lack of judgement. This choice seems almost pedestrian. The moose stew bit even reminds me a bit of the local would-be politician whose campaign slogan was: "I am as common as dirt".

And then, to compare Palin to Obama! What a riot! He was President of the Harvard Law Review, and she played basketball. He was a professor of Constitutional Law, and she has a BS in journalism. Alaska has a population of about 660,000 - there are Congressional districts about that large in Chicago!

 

[Math Is Hard]

Something about this picture makes me think of a weekday morning talk show...

http://www.johnmccain.com/Images/HP3/hp3_lo_logo.jpg

...a la Regis and Kathy Lee.

And I have this annoying image in my head of McCain marketing people doing focus groups, showing the same picture with different possible VPs pasted in.

 

[lisab]

Something about this picture makes me think of a weekday morning talk show...

http://www.johnmccain.com/Images/HP3/hp3_lo_logo.jpg

...a la Regis and Kathy Lee.

And I have this annoying image in my head of McCain marketing people doing focus groups, showing the same picture with different possible VPs pasted in.

Regis and Kathy Lee......thats perfect! MIH, you're a riot!

 

[turbo]

Regis and Kathy Lee......thats perfect! MIH, you're a riot!

And Kathy Lee's Central American sweat-shops (supervisor cracks a whip over the backs of working children) "Work harder! Cody wants a pony!"

 

[BobG]

I wonder whether she will be made to answer - personally and on the record that Trig is hers?

It would be kind of novel. Usually it's the guy taking a paternity test to prove he's not the father.

I'm a little stumped how this whole plan works out, though.

1) Bristol Palin misses a prolonged period of school due to mono.

2) Sarah Palin announces she's seven months pregnant and the announcement came as a shock.

So far, so good for the conspiracy.

3) The daughter that was supposedly pregnant is pregnant!

She covers up her first pregnancy by getting pregnant again incredibly fast? Or perhaps people think she's covering up the real pregnancy with a fake pregnancy?

I just hope that family remembers, "You can't lateral a horse".

 

[LowlyPion]

We've been warned:

First lady Laura Bush said today that sexism aimed at Sarah Palin was a very real prospect and suggested Democrats watch what they say about the Alaska governor and John McCain's ticketmate.
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“The other side will have to be particularly careful," Bush said in an interview on Fox News from St. Paul, "because that’s something we all looked at."

Questioned about whether Palin may face sexism from the media in the way Hillary Rodham Clinton supporters claim she did, Bush said: "I think that's a possibility."

http://news.yahoo.com/s/politico/20080901/pl_politico/20378

 

[turbo]

It would be kind of novel. Usually it's the guy taking a paternity test to prove he's not the father.

I'm a little stumped how this whole plan works out, though.

1) Bristol Palin misses a prolonged period of school due to mono.

2) Sarah Palin announces she's seven months pregnant and the announcement came as a shock.

So far, so good for the conspiracy.

3) The daughter that was supposedly pregnant is pregnant!

She covers up her first pregnancy by getting pregnant again incredibly fast? Or perhaps people think she's covering up the real pregnancy with a fake pregnancy?

I just hope that family remembers, "You can't lateral a horse".

It gets worse, Bob. A very cynical friend of mine wants to bet me that Bristol's current pregnancy is fake and that she will suffer a tragic (fake) miscarriage in late October. I can't take it! Writers for soap operas couldn't have come up with this stuff!

 

[Gokul43201]

This alone will probably kill any chance of winning that he had.

I don't see how you can say that. From what little I've gathered so far, the Evangelicals are totally fired up. And the daughter's pregnancy only rallies them closer. The person I feel terrible for is Bristol herself - no matter what she may have wanted before, she has absolutely no choice now.

And then, to compare Palin to Obama! What a riot! He was President of the Harvard Law Review, and she played basketball. He was a professor of Constitutional Law, and she has a BS in journalism. Alaska has a population of about 660,000 - there are Congressional districts about that large in Chicago!

Do you think the social conservative base of the Republican population cares about any of those 3 points? She's more like them. And she will fight for the causes that are most dear to them. End of story.

There's only three ways in which this can be dangerous:
1. What effect does this have on the moderate/independent segment of the population that were leaning McCain?
2. How will the VP debate go?
3. What happens to the undecided Hillary gang?

I think the first point is going to lose McCain some votes, but not as many as he will now have got from a more enthused Evangelical base. The second point could go either way - if Palin (with short, well rehearsed and jingoistic phraseology) appears to not get thrashed by Biden, that will be seen as a huge win for them. On the other hand, if she looks clueless or actually tries to engage in an intellectual debate intead of producing the prescribed talking points, that could be very bad. The third, I think, is the most harmful. McCain will now have lost more of the Hillary supporters than he could have gained with any other pick. I don't think this is a large enough number of people to matter though.

Whatever her ideology, qualifications and intellectual capability may be, she is definitely a person with a lot of moral fortitude (how misguided those "morals" may be is irrelevant), and that's what a lot of people will see.

 

[LowlyPion]

She covers up her first pregnancy by getting pregnant again incredibly fast?

I pray this is not the case. This whole thing might become like McGovern selecting Eagleton who turned out to have had a nervous breakdown lurking in his past.

I am prepared to believe that things are as represented. However, this latest development and the rather close 4 month-5 month thing - when pregnancy times to term already as I recall pretty much depend inexactly on mother's remembering last periods or ultrasounds placing observations within distributions, does not exactly close the door on the rumor that its release would apparently seem intend to dispel.

I guess I must labor under being naturally suspicious of convenient excuses - when the excuse seems as improbable as the rumor it's intended to dispel.

 

[BobG]

It gets worse, Bob. A very cynical friend of mine wants to bet me that Bristol's current pregnancy is fake and that she will suffer a tragic (fake) miscarriage in late October. I can't take it! Writers for soap operas couldn't have come up with this stuff!

That's exactly the lame plot they would come up with and never even give an explanation of why any of the characters did any of the things they did.

The better plot line would be that the family finds out the baby has Down's syndrome and realizes that while the dependent daughter is covered under parents' medical insurance, the daughter's dependents aren't. The family and the doctors all conspire to destroy and/or falsify all medical records up to that point and lateral the baby to Sarah Palin so the baby's medical expenses will be covered on the mother's health insurance.

I'm still stumped where the extra pregnancy comes in, but the moral is clear: If we had universal medical coverage, none of this would have had to happen.

And, having previously done the sports on an Alaska TV station, I'm sure Sarah Palin knows all about Bill Stern (even Ronald Reagan knew the Bill Stern trick), but she might not know about Clem McCarthy.

 

[Cyrus]

palin's daughter should be kept out of this. I can only imagine what it must be like for a seventeen year old girl to have her pregnancy made national news! I feel so bad for her.

But, as for the mccain's choice, i haven't quit laughing since i read palin's bio. This alone will probably kill any chance of winning that he had.

I missed part of the mclaughlin group this week, but apparently eleanor clift stated that the entire newsroom broke out in laughter when the palin annnouncement was made.

This will slowlly speak volumes to mccain's lack of judgement. This choice seems almost pedestrian. The moose stew bit even reminds me a bit of the local would-be politician whose campaign slogan was: "i am as common as dirt".

And then, to compare palin to obama! What a riot! He was president of the harvard law review, and she played basketball. He was a professor of constitutional law, and she has a bs in journalism. Alaska has a population of about 660,000 - there are congressional districts about that large in chicago!

aahahahahaha, Ms. Palin BYE BYE

 

[russ_watters]

And I have this annoying image in my head of McCain marketing people doing focus groups, showing the same picture with different possible VPs pasted in.

I just assumed this was how VPs were chosen!

Though I don't think his particular choice was the right one, picking a young[er], white woman was the right choice, just like picking an old white man was the right choice for Obama. Both provide an image that their running mate needs along side them. Demographically, both picks were pretty obvious.

 

[edward]

The McCain people knew about the pregnant teen aged daughter before Sarah Palin was picked as the VP candidate.

It would be illogical to assume that the pregnancy would not come up in the news media.

The person chosen as a running mate is carefully screened and both public relations people and psychologists are involved in the selection process.

So what is their scheme? Are they using a 17 year old girl to make the point that Christian conservatives don't have abortions??

Would they throw a young girl to the wolves just to attempt to prove that McCain is a kind and caring person??

Is it to prove that McCain is truly a maverick?

There is always a gimmick, always a catch, what is it with this situation??

Why would a loving mother subject her daughter to this kind of nationwide scrutiny?

I would really like to see the balance sheet used to made this decision, because I see more questions than answers.

 

[Cyrus]

Edward, probably for the same reason why she would have a down syndrome baby and leave it behind while going on tour.

 

[Gokul43201]

The person chosen as a running mate is carefully screened and both public relations people and psychologists are involved in the selection process.

Seems not to have been the case. Never attribute to ... you know.

Aides to Mr. McCain said they had a team on the ground in Alaska now to look more thoroughly into Ms. Palin’s background. A Republican with ties to the campaign said the team assigned to vet Ms. Palin in Alaska had not arrived there until Thursday, a day before Mr. McCain stunned the political world with his vice-presidential choice.
...
Up until midweek last week, some 48 to 72 hours before Mr. McCain introduced Ms. Palin at a Friday rally in Dayton, Ohio, Mr. McCain was still holding out the hope that he could name as his running mate a good friend, Senator Joseph I. Lieberman, independent of Connecticut, a Republican close to the campaign said. Mr. McCain had also been interested in another favorite, former Gov. Tom Ridge of Pennsylvania.
...
With time running out ...he turned to Ms. Palin. He had his first face-to-face interview with her on Thursday and offered her the job moments later.
...
Representative Gail Phillips, a Republican and former speaker of the State House, said the widespread surprise in Alaska when Ms. Palin was named to the ticket made her wonder how intensively the McCain campaign had vetted her.

“I started calling around and asking, and I have not been able to find one person that was called,” Ms. Phillips said. “I called 30 to 40 people, political leaders, business leaders, community leaders. Not one of them had heard. Alaska is a very small community, we know people all over, but I haven’t found anybody who was asked anything.”

The current mayor of Wasilla, Dianne M. Keller, said she had not heard of any efforts to look into Ms. Palin’s background. And Randy Ruedrich, the state Republican Party chairman, said he knew nothing of any vetting that had been conducted.

State Senator Hollis French, a Democrat who is directing the ethics investigation, said that no one asked him about the allegations. “I heard not a word, not a single contact,” he said.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26501863/page/1

 

[Astronuc]

With time running out ...he turned to Ms. Palin. He had his first face-to-face interview with her on Thursday and offered her the job moments later.

That seems an example of rather poor judgement. He didn't have a definite candidate when his campaign announced that he would name a VP nominee before the RNC, so he was forced into making a decision. If one mucks up a simple process like this, what's going to happen if the guy is president. The country needs someone who is thoughtful and deliberative, not someone who makes a bad decision.

Seems he would have preferred Lieberman or Ridge.

And four days later, they still haven't done their homework.

 

[lisab]

Why would a loving mother subject her daughter to this kind of nationwide scrutiny?

That's exactly what I was wondering. I'm the mom of a 16-year-old girl and I can't fathom putting my daughter through something like what Bristol is going through now. Is her mom trying to embarrass and shame her? How terrible for that girl!

 

[Gokul43201]

Is her mom trying to embarrass and shame her?

Nah! She's just trying to be VP.

Check out a McCain spokesman looking totally idiotic trying to defend Palin: http://www.cnn.com/video/#/video/politics/2008/09/01/brown.tucker.bounds.interview.cnn

 

[Gokul43201]

There's only three ways in which this can be dangerous:
1. What effect does this have on the moderate/independent segment of the population that were leaning McCain?
2. How will the VP debate go?
3. What happens to the undecided Hillary gang?

There's one more point that I missed. More risky than the debate (which can be coached, scripted and rehearsed) will be her responses to press questions. The campaign will have to get her a script real fast and make sure she doesn't say anything not in the talking points (sort of like they've done with McCain, but for a different reason). And they will also need to keep any interaction with the press to a minimum.

 

[turbo]

There's one more point that I missed. More risky than the debate (which can be coached, scripted and rehearsed) will be her responses to press questions. The campaign will have to get her a script real fast and make sure she doesn't say anything not in the talking points (sort of like they've done with McCain, but for a different reason). And they will also need to keep any interaction with the press to a minimum.

Her "public" appearances will probably consist of town-hall talks with pre-screened participants and planted questions, at least for the next few weeks. There is just not enough time to bring her up to speed on all the GOP talking points and point out all the messy spots that she has got to avoid in public.

 

[LowlyPion]

Her "public" appearances will probably consist of town-hall talks with pre-screened participants and planted questions, at least for the next few weeks. There is just not enough time to bring her up to speed on all the GOP talking points and point out all the messy spots that she has got to avoid in public.

That will be a challenge, because apparently the field of landmines looks pretty broad and she apparently likes to talk - a recipe for a Phil Graham moment.

 

[BobG]

How soon until the new campaign buttons come out?

Geezer and Gidget '08

 

[Vanadium 50]

...she apparently likes to talk...

Unlike, say, Senator Biden.

 

[turbo]

Unlike, say, Senator Biden.

Yep! that boy was vaccinated with a phonograph needle.

 

[LowlyPion]

Unlike, say, Senator Biden.

He is a blabbermouth to be sure. And at times his motorboat mouth doesn't seem to let his brain in on what it's about to say either.

I think the difference though is that Obama is the star doing the heavy lifting for their campaign, and at this point Palin is the one looking like the star more than McCain.

How many autographs have you seen McCain sign?

 

[Ivan Seeking]

I don't see how you can say that. From what little I've gathered so far, the Evangelicals are totally fired up. And the daughter's pregnancy only rallies them closer. The person I feel terrible for is Bristol herself - no matter what she may have wanted before, she has absolutely no choice now.

I was speaking as an independent. Sure, she appeals to the far right, but not moderates, which is who McCain needs. Under the right circumstances I could vote for McCain, but this decision would really set me back under any circumstances. As for Hillary, I think most female Hillary supporters will see McCain's choice as condescending and superficial.

But most of all, how can anyone trust his judgement after this? Palin is not even in the same league as Obama or Biden, and I think this will be painfully clear soon enough.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

I get such a kick out of listening to Rep pundits answer the following: Is Palin the most qualified person that McCain could have picked?

The only reason for her selection that one can imagine is the fact that she's a woman. It is sooooo transparent! In my mind, McCain just got a foot shorter.