News Will Palin's VP Debate Performance Impact McCain's Campaign?

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The discussion centers around John McCain's selection of Sarah Palin as his vice presidential candidate in the 2008 election. Participants express mixed reactions to her nomination, noting her limited experience as the governor of Alaska and questioning whether her gender will attract disenchanted Hillary Clinton supporters. There is speculation about Palin's appeal to female voters and potential strategies to counter Barack Obama’s campaign. Concerns are raised about her qualifications and the implications of having a less experienced candidate on the ticket, especially given McCain's age and health issues. The conversation also touches on the broader themes of gender in politics, the effectiveness of her candidacy in swaying voters, and the potential for her to energize conservative bases. Overall, the selection is viewed as a strategic move, but opinions vary on its effectiveness and implications for the election.
  • #501
Evo said:
Bogus? As opposed to non bogus polls? Explain why you think these polls are any different than any other opinion polls.

To the extent that there are 60 days to election I think we all expect that today's poll doesn't express the will of the electorate when votes are cast. That's the only poll that does count.

Not measured are the intangibles like whether sexism or racism will play a silent part in this year's go round. Or whether the people polled will actually vote.

I think it was Gallup that selected Dewey over Truman so ... go figure.
http://64.233.169.104/search?q=cache:aMXPENG8syEJ:www.pbs.org/fmc/timeline/e1948election.htm+gallup+dewey+truman&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=1&gl=us

But you may be sure that if McCain were leading, it would be proof for the right wing that it represented a clear mandate of acceptance of McCain/Palin.
 
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  • #502
I checked electoral-vote.com today and it had Obama winning by a larger lead than in the past four or five days I've looked at it:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

I then checked "this day in 2004" and saw Bush in the lead by a smaller margin than Obama's current lead:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2004/Pres/Maps/Sep05.html

So this gives me hope, as I lean towards Obama (I'm not even voting for him, though, and in front of my home, on the grass, you will see a yard sign for nader).
 
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  • #503
LowlyPion said:
For information only for any that didn't see the cover of the National Enquirer:

http://i295.photobucket.com/albums/mm157/THESPREADIT/nationalenquirersarahpalinstorycove.jpg

This is what the references have been to.
Now that fair dinkum is defined up thread to mean anything at all, relevant or not, I choose to include
NASA MOON WALKER ALIEN COVER UP
Former NASA astronaut Dr. Edgar Mitchell, an Apollo 14 moon-walking vet alleges extraterrestrial contact has been covered up for sixty years!
http://www.nationalenquirer.com/nasa_moon_walker_edgar_mitchell_alien_cover_up/celebrity/65204
Hey they were right about Edwards.
 
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  • #504
OrbitalPower said:
I checked electoral-vote.com today and it had Obama winning by a larger lead than in the past four or five days I've looked at it:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

I then checked "this day in 2004" and saw Bush in the lead by a smaller margin than Obama's current lead:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2004/Pres/Maps/Sep05.html

So this gives me hope, as I lean towards Obama (I'm not even voting for him, though, and in front of my home, on the grass, you will see a yard sign for nader).

Just curious, op (not original poster!)...why won't you vote for Obama, especially since he's earned your, um, lean :wink: ?
 
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  • #505
OrbitalPower said:
So this gives me hope, as I lean towards Obama (I'm not even voting for him, though, and in front of my home, on the grass, you will see a yard sign for nader).

I could never vote for Nader. I consider him a bit too selfish and eager for limelight, lacking in pragmatism, without any hope of ever doing anything, but being an election year gad fly. I recognize his rights of course to run as he wishes, just as he must as well recognize he will have to live without my vote.

For me it will always boil down to his tipping Florida to Bush by siphoning Gore votes. If he truly believed in his stated agendas, he did more damage to those agendas than any good his candidacy has ever accomplished. I've no question in my mind the world has NOT been a better place since that inauspicious start to the Bush term in office.
 
  • #506
lisab said:
Just curious, op (not original poster!)...why won't you vote for Obama, especially since he's earned your, um, lean :wink: ?

If it was solely out of those two I would probably vote for Obama. However, he hasn't spoken up, or has even voted the other way, on a lot of the key issues I care about. He has played to the religious right a bit and I'm not sure if he's as big of reformer as he claims to be. Biden as well voted for some of the same Bush attacks on civil liberties and democracy.

There are a few other candidates in the race, although they only poll at 3 and 4%. Still, I believe the American people should have more voices and choices when it comes to candidates and parties, especially since the two party duopoly is looking more and more like a one party figure with two talking heads.

And besides, I'm in a "safe state" anyway. :wink:
 
  • #507
LowlyPion said:
I could never vote for Nader. I consider him a bit too selfish and eager for limelight, lacking in pragmatism, without any hope of ever doing anything, but being an election year gad fly. I recognize his rights of course to run as he wishes, just as he must as well recognize he will have to live without my vote.

For me it will always boil down to his tipping Florida to Bush by siphoning Gore votes. If he truly believed in his stated agendas, he did more damage to those agendas than any good his candidacy has ever accomplished. I've no question in my mind the world has NOT been a better place since that inauspicious start to the Bush term in office.

I believe this has been analyzed dozens of times and I think a majority of Nader's voters would have stayed him on election day and another large faction were conservatives, as "Republicans for Nader" was bigger in Florida than other places.

And some people think that Gore did win in Florida, anyway, despite Nader's precense (as well as the few thousand votes the other left-wing third parties got, it wasn't just the Greens down there).

I think third parties can be good because they help raise issues many of the official candidates aren't talking about. This is true with regards to women's rights, the farmer's progressive populist movement, and so on. Taking on the entrenched corporate interests is the social movement of our times in my opinion and Barack I don't think is as good as he could be.
 
  • #508
The people who think Nader cost Gore the election in 2000 might get their justice, though, because Bob Barr and the Libertarians could tip a few states to Obama if the race is close enough.
 
  • #509
OrbitalPower said:
I think third parties can be good because they help raise issues many of the official candidates aren't talking about. This is true with regards to women's rights, the farmer's progressive populist movement, and so on. Taking on the entrenched corporate interests is the social movement of our times in my opinion and Barack I don't think is as good as he could be.

I don't disagree with what you say, it's just that I lost respect for Nader the man, given that even a little effort on his part could have actually changed the world. Should Gore have worked to get more votes there? Probably. Was the loss his responsibility? Probably. It all is what it is. Nothing to do about it now ... except I do get to vote against Nader at every election.
 
  • #510
OrbitalPower said:
The people who think Nader cost Gore the election in 2000 might get their justice, though, because Bob Barr and the Libertarians could tip a few states to Obama if the race is close enough.

I think this would be small consolation. Bush as the talking head for Cheney Rove is far the worse outcome than if McCain had been President those first 4 years. Though admittedly I think keeping McCain from office with this Palin woman next in line, would be best, since such a possibility apparently presents some outcomes more dangerous than having had Bust the last 8 years.
 
  • #511
Here is a rundown on some of the Palin scandals from the NY Daily News:

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/republican_race/toplists/sarah_palin_scandalwatch_whats_true_whats_false/sarah_palin_scandalwatch_whats_true_whats_false.html

Fired the librarian for not banning certain books?
NYDailyNews said:
ALLEGATION: Tried to censor public library

VERDICT: SOME TRUTH. Palin, as mayor of Wasilla, discussed the possibility of banning some books. Palin fired the town librarian, but rehired her after residents voiced disapproval. Palin later told a local newspaper that her discussion about book banning was "rhetorical."


Makes it hard to believe that she didn't intervene inappropriately in the Monegan forced resignation.
 
  • #512
LightbulbSun said:
Election polls are bogus, I hope you realize this.

Yes, this is why candidates, and in particular, political strategists, are so interested in polling data.
 
  • #513
The problem I have with polls comes when they get disseminated a few days before an election, or even on the day of an election. People may or may not go to the polls based on some poll that may or may not be correct, or maybe even purposely falsified.

Giving election results before before all polling places are closed I would consider to be inappropriate also.
 
  • #514
http://www.adn.com/news/alaska/story/516967.html
It's the season for Alaskans to be rewarded just for living here, and this year's take is extra sweet: $3,269, a record share of the state's oil wealth combined with a special cash payout to help with stratospheric energy prices.
I know it would have happened any way but it still must be nice to cut checks for the people you want voting for you. I wonder if Obama or Biden could get away with giving away money.
 
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  • #515
Regarding the Wasilla Librarian,

http://www.adn.com/sarah-palin/story/515512.html

Regarding Subpoenas being issued by the legislature in regard to the legislative investigation into Monegan being pressured to resign after refusing to fire Palin's ex-brother in law.

http://www.adn.com/news/alaska/story/517681.html

Apparently the latest Palin tactic to remove the case from the legislative process to a panel of her own appointees is failing. I see the subpoenas as the legislature's response to Palin's attempt to suborn their authority to the investigation. Palin herself was not subpoenaed, as they were offering her the opportunity to give her account by phone or by being deposed on the campaign trail at her convenience. (But of course that could change if she never finds the time.) And they have dcided to move up the release of whatever report so as not to appear on the eve of the national election.
 
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  • #516
TheStatutoryApe said:
http://www.adn.com/news/alaska/story/516967.html

I know it would have happened any way but it still must be nice to cut checks for the people you want voting for you. I wonder if Obama or Biden could get away with giving away money.
:confused: Giving away money is the primary selling point of democratic candiates!

Regardless - I don't see your point here. Alaskans always get money. Are you suggesting that if positions were reversed, Obama or Biden would get slammed for it? Absurd.
 
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  • #517
Alaskan GOP are trying to remove the legislator leading the Palin ethics investigation, saying that he has politicized the investigation.

http://www.newsweek.com/id/157439
 
  • #518
turbo-1 said:
Alaskan GOP are trying to remove the legislator leading the Palin ethics investigation, saying that he has politicized the investigation.

http://www.newsweek.com/id/157439

Yes, but as he has pointed out in the piece I posted a link to, the Independent Counsel looking into the matter is the one asking the questions and writing the report.

Hollis_French said:
"The key point here is, I'm not doing the investigation. Steve Branchflower is," French said, adding Branchflower is free to reach any conclusions the facts support.

Apparently French is moving the date of the report up 3 weeks, so as not to appear to be a "just before the election" backstabbing. (Maybe just a month before one?)

And of course it is politicized. It was all politics back in July as well when it was begun. And before that it was apparently vindictive politics and some kind of twisted part of a family feud.

But the investigation was begun well before her selection by McCain. And Palin's attempt to subvert the Legislative process now with the recent disingenuous complaint against herself, to try and grab jurisdiction doesn't look good at all. (Shades of Nixon's sorry attempts to stonewall Special Prosecutor Cox by firing him and the Attorney General he rode into town on?)

Just think if Palin had cooperated as she said she would, it could be over by now even.

I must say these machinations certainly look at odds with the "Refom" image McCain/Palin want to project. Sadly it looks like the same business as usual cover-ups that Washington DC has become all too familiar with.
 
  • #519
Evo said:
Bogus? As opposed to non bogus polls? Explain why you think these polls are any different than any other opinion polls.

A) They're not as scientific as surveys.
B) Surveys will ask questions in different ways to control for the "intangible" factors, which polls do not do.

C) Surveys will write down what the person says instead of checking their answer off as "other" if they don't choose from one of their predetermined answers.

D) Polls will twist questions any way they want to just to skew public perception.

For more information about polls, visit the following links:

http://www.fallacyfiles.org/readpoll.html"

http://www.veoh.com/videos/v15836386ZYfpPMcW"
 
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  • #520
LightbulbSun said:
A) They're not as scientific as surveys.

Fwiw, the Gallup polls at least do apply some methodology to the gathering of their data. If you are interested here are their criteria, and how they attempt to normalize their data with appropriate population selection.:
http://media.gallup.com/PDF/FAQ/HowArePolls.pdf

As to today's Poll numbers - which I imagine you breathlessly await, it's Obama 47% and McCain 45%.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/110047/Gallup-Daily-Obamas-Lead-Shrinks-Points.aspx
 
  • #521
  • #522
russ_watters said:
:confused: Giving away money is the primary selling point of democratic candiates!
True! Like tax cuts and credits funded by China and Japan. The dems just love to give those away.
 
  • #523
LightbulbSun said:
A) They're not as scientific as surveys.
B) Surveys will ask questions in different ways to control for the "intangible" factors, which polls do not do.

C) Surveys will write down what the person says instead of checking their answer off as "other" if they don't choose from one of their predetermined answers.

D) Polls will twist questions any way they want to just to skew public perception.

For more information about polls, visit the following links:

http://www.fallacyfiles.org/readpoll.html"

http://www.veoh.com/videos/v15836386ZYfpPMcW"
Yes, an opinion I found believable: accuracy is not the pollsters primary motivation until a week or two before the election when their polls get checked against results and their reputations are at stake; prior to that they're temptation to shape opinions rather than measure them is overwhelming for many.
 
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  • #524
Gokul43201 said:
True! Like tax cuts and credits funded by China and Japan. The dems just love to give those away.
One does not 'give away' a tax cut, unless you presuppose that the money is primarily the governments to begin with.
 
  • #525
mheslep said:
One does not 'give away' a tax cut, unless you presuppose that the money is primarily the governments to begin with.
Government prints the money - it's theirs. It's a bit like Ceasar and his coins. :biggrin: And there was some bloke way back when who said - give unto Ceasar, what is Ceasar's, give unto the higher authority what is his or His as the case maybe. :smile:
 
  • #526
mheslep said:
One does not 'give away' a tax cut, unless you presuppose that the money is primarily the governments to begin with.
One doesn't get primary education, police protection, fire protection, highway access, national defense, etc. for free. You do owe the Government.
 
  • #527
mheslep said:
Yes, an opinion I found believable: accuracy is not the pollsters primary motivation until a week or two before the election when their polls get checked against results and their reputations are at stake; prior to that they're temptation to shape opinions rather than measure them is overwhelming for many.
Opinion polls are just opinions.

I have been in some of these polls before and they do a lot of questioning before you answer the questions. Once I was told that they already had my 'demographic' filled so could not be included. I did find that they will call you for later polls. I also was a "Neilson's TV Ratings" family for several years until I stopped bothering to fill out my viewing diary regulary. I guess you get put on some type of sucker list once they know you will spend 30 minutes giving your opinions.
 
  • #528
Evo said:
Opinion polls are just opinions.

I have been in some of these polls before and they do a lot of questioning before you answer the questions. Once I was told that they already had my 'demographic' filled so could not be included. I did find that they will call you for later polls. I also was a "Neilson's TV Ratings" family for several years until I stopped bothering to fill out my viewing diary regulary. I guess you get put on some type of sucker list once they know you will spend 30 minutes giving your opinions.

I got a call one time from someone wanting to do similar ratings for tv or radio. They sent a little diary to my house. After I sent it back they sent me five bucks taped inside an envelope!
 
  • #529
Cyrus said:
I got a call one time from someone wanting to do similar ratings for tv or radio. They sent a little diary to my house. After I sent it back they sent me five bucks taped inside an envelope!
I'm amazed that it wasn't stolen by someone in the post office. I received a dollar bill once for a poll I was in, how'd you get five?
 
  • #530
russ_watters said:
:confused: Giving away money is the primary selling point of democratic candiates!

Regardless - I don't see your point here. Alaskans always get money. Are you suggesting that if positions were reversed, Obama or Biden would get slammed for it? Absurd.

Lol... I said I know that it would have happened anyway. They get money yearly. Its just convenient (and I don't mean in any conspiratorial way) that she gets to give all the residents of AK extra large checks this year. And I'm not saying Obama or Biden would be slammed for it but that they haven't a similar means of endearing themselves to their constituents.

Its just a side note. I'm sure that McCain and Palin would have taken AK either way.
 
  • #532
It is tough to know how much of that is McCain's convention bounce and how much is the fading of Obama's convention bounce - probably some of both. The trend will settle out over the next few days as McCain's "bounce" peaks, then fades, so we'll probably end up with the virtual dead heat we had before the conventions.
 
  • #533
TheStatutoryApe said:
Lol... I said I know that it would have happened anyway. They get money yearly. Its just convenient (and I don't mean in any conspiratorial way) that she gets to give all the residents of AK extra large checks this year. And I'm not saying Obama or Biden would be slammed for it but that they haven't a similar means of endearing themselves to their constituents.
Since they get money every year, how does continuing that "endear" her to her constituents? I'm sure they know that what they get has virtually nothing to do with who is in office in AK.
 
  • #534
russ_watters said:
It is tough to know how much of that is McCain's convention bounce and how much is the fading of Obama's convention bounce - probably some of both. The trend will settle out over the next few days as McCain's "bounce" peaks, then fades, so we'll probably end up with the virtual dead heat we had before the conventions.

Gotta agree here. People may also get an overdose of Palin, and spit it out like a bad taste. Time will tell.
Yet another poll.
http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/2008-09-07-poll_N.htm
 
  • #535
Presidential Debate Schedule

September 26, 2008: Presidential debate with domestic policy focus, University of Mississippi, Oxford, MS
October 2, 2008: Vice Presidential debate, Washington University, St. Louis, MO
October 7, 2008: Presidential debate in a town hall format, Belmont University, Nashville, TN
October 15, 2008:Presidential debate with foreign policy focus, Hofstra University, Hempstead, NY

Less than a month to ready Palin to respond on National issues. I think we can be sure that she will avoid the Press like the plague until then and likely all the way to November.
 
  • #536
I can't believe McCain is ahead by such a margin with all the problems going on, and with other polls showing Americans agree more with the Obama camp, such as the war and most of the social issues including the death penalty.

You might as well just let him win at this point. Apparently, America is an exmaple of Lenin's analysis: things have to get really bad before we can have this change, something near a Great Depression.

I'm not going to vote for someone who's going to lose the popular vote and have a chance to still be elected president; I don't think that's right.
 
  • #537
LowlyPion said:
Less than a month to ready Palin to respond on National issues. I think we can be sure that she will avoid the Press like the plague until then and likely all the way to November.
Why? It doesn't seem like she was avoiding the press at that rally yesterday.

I think you guys are speculating about nothing.
 
  • #538
OrbitalPower said:
I can't believe McCain is ahead by such a margin with all the problems going on, and with other polls showing Americans agree more with the Obama camp, such as the war and most of the social issues including the death penalty.

You might as well just let him win at this point. Apparently, America is an exmaple of Lenin's analysis: things have to get really bad before we can have this change, something near a Great Depression.
People in this forum tend to get caught up in their perceptions and forget that their perceptions are just perceptions. They aren't reality. The reality is that a large fraction of Americans like McCain - about as many as like Obama. The lopsided-ness of this forum is not representative.

I would like to see these "other polls" you are referring to, though. Near as I can tell, there isn't any functional difference between their death penalty policies, except that Obama's is wrapped in his usual blanket of hedges: http://pewforum.org/religion08/compare.php?Issue=Death_Penalty
I'm not going to vote for someone who's going to lose the popular vote and have a chance to still be elected president; I don't think that's right.
Huh?
 
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  • #540
russ_watters said:
Near as I can tell, there isn't any functional difference between their death penalty policies...
Near as I can tell, McCain wants to expand the death penalty and limit appeals, while Obama wants to limit the death penalty and expand checks and safety measures.

http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2008/08/27/america/NA-POL-US-Elections-Where-They-Stand.php

Most people not wearing a binary filter or living their lives through two-line soundbites can tell the difference.
(Reuters) - Presidential candidates Barack Obama and John McCain are often at odds or hold differing opinions on legal issues like the death penalty, immigration enforcement, the Supreme Court, wiretapping and civil rights.

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN2140737520080721
 
  • #542
OrbitalPower said:
I'm not going to vote for someone who's going to lose the popular vote and have a chance to still be elected president; I don't think that's right.
Then you shouldn't vote for Obama.
 
  • #543
Gokul43201 said:
Oops!

It is certainly out of line with the rest of the polls over the last few days.

It's the Palin honeymoon. I find it quite entertaining to see such enthusiasm about someone who almost no one knows anything about - including McCain!

There was actually some concern about McCain and Palin appearing together because she upstages McCain every time. The McCain people decided to keep them together for now, but one would almost think it's a Palin-McCain ticket. ...in fact, I wonder if this might not start to intrude on McCain's ego.
 
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  • #544
russ_watters said:
The lopsided-ness of this forum is not representative.

Though perhaps suggestive given that PF is probably the smartest group of people on any forum on the internet.
 
  • #545
Ivan Seeking said:
There was actually some concern about McCain and Palin appearing together because she upstages McCain every time. The McCain people decided to keep them together for now, but one would almost think it's a Palin-McCain ticket. ...in fact, I wonder if this might not start to intrude on McCain's ego.


It's likely to intrude on Obama's ego long before it will McCain's!
 
  • #546
chemisttree said:
It's likely to intrude on Obama's ego long before it will McCain's!

What makes you think Obama would be concerned about how Palin might upstage McCain?

Making McCain look to be the third most popular candidate in the field can't help McCain.
 
  • #547
Read the latest polls and get back to me...
 
  • #548
chemisttree said:
Read the latest polls and get back to me...

I'm missing the connection with the latest polls and your supposition that Obama's ego would have a problem with Palin's popularity before McCain would?
 
  • #549
Perhaps most stunning is the fact that Palin’s favorable ratings are now a point higher than either man at the top of the Presidential tickets this year. As of Friday morning, Obama and McCain are each viewed favorably by 57% of voters. Biden is viewed favorably by 48%.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/palin_power_fresh_face_now_more_popular_than_obama_mccain

Or I could put it into Father Pfleger terms for you...

'...this is mine. I'm Michelle's husband and a friend of Ayers. I'm black, and this is mine. I just got to get up and step into the plate.' Then out of nowhere, 'I'm Sarah Palin!' Imitating Barak's response, screaming at the top of his lungs again, he continues, 'Ah, damn! Where did you come from? I'm black! I'm entitled! There's a woman stealing my show!'
 
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  • #550
chemisttree said:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/palin_power_fresh_face_now_more_popular_than_obama_mccain

Or I could put it into Father Pfleger terms for you...

'...this is mine. I'm Michelle's husband and a friend of Ayers. I'm black, and this is mine. I just got to get up and step into the plate.' Then out of nowhere, 'I'm Sarah Palin!' Imitating Barak's response, screaming at the top of his lungs again, he continues, 'Ah, damn! Where did you come from? I'm black! I'm entitled! There's a woman stealing my show!'

Sorry, I guess I'm not tuned into your fantasy stereotyping characterizations of the candidates then. It seems a thin substitute for a rationale.

But ultimately I suppose that same thing touches on the great Republican strategy/hope that they can cling to power through image without substance. Masquerade meanness as compassion, divisiveness as consensus, while pretending all the time that continuation is change.
 
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