Solar Activity and Space Weather Update thread

[Stavros Kiri]

I am picking this up as a continuation and extension of the idea laid out e.g. in @davenn 's thread
"The Sun today - 9 July 2017 - nice spot group"
https://www.physicsforums.com/threads/the-sun-today-9-july-2017-nice-spot-group.919696/

See also (for continuity purposes):
https://www.physicsforums.com/threa...17-nice-spot-group.919696/page-2#post-5825645

But the idea here is extended not to just one day or around that time, but to monitor the Sun's activity and Space Weather over time, beginning right after the Eclipse (in the US) of Aug. 21, 2017.
Everyone is welcome and encouraged to post valid updates for noticed significant solar activity and space weather facts and events, including personal or otherwise photos, videos etc., as long as they are valid. That also includes quoting appropriate [PF accepted] articles and sources, and other valid means of correct relevant imformation, or scientific news and updates on the field.

Currently there are still two significant Sun Spot groups, that acquire the names "group region 2671" and ".. region 2672". Here is a view of the Sun today 22 Aug. 2017, one day after the eclipse:
"

Sunspot regions

On this page you'll find an overview of all the visible sunspot regions on the Sun together with their properties, images and the chances on solar flares or proton events. This page is updated daily and the sunspot images every hour.

Region 2671
Number of
sunspots Size Class Magn. Class Spot Location
18 250 -180 FSI N10W32

Flare probabilities
C M X Proton
55% 10% 1% 1%
Region 2672
Number of
sunspots Size Class Magn. Class Spot Location
10 5 270 110 DAO N08E46

Flare probabilities
C M X Proton
45% 5% 1% 1%
Back to top
Current data suggest that it is not possible to see aurora now at middle latitudes
Active geomagnetic conditions expected
Latest news

Sunday, 20 August 2017 - 07:31 UTC
M1.2 solar flare, C7.0 solar flare
More news
Today's space weather
Auroral activity Minor Severe
High latitude 25% 40%
Middle latitude 10% 1%
Predicted Kp max 4
Aurora forecast HelpMore data
Solar activity
M-class solar flare 15%
X-class solar flare 1%
Sunspot regionsMore data
Moon phase
New Moon
Moon Phases Calendar
"

Source: https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/solar-activity/sunspot-regions

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Here is the view of the sun today, Aug. 25, 2017, after 3 days of rotation. Region 2671 is getting ready to leave us. Region 2672 still has some future ahead ...

Note that these are telescope views (inverted image).
With direct visual mode[/view] (upright image) we see in the afternoon and forth a picture oriantation similar to the above, while in the morning hours an upside down version of it.

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Spot region 2671 just left us a few hours ago, today Sun 27 Aug., 2017. The remaining group 2672 is also winding down. Perhaps we are heading to a spotless day soon (last one was Aug 1).
Right now solar wind a bit high, with active geomagnetic conditions expected. Here is a full update:
"

Sunspot regions
On this page you'll find an overview of all the visible sunspot regions on the Sun together with their properties, images and the chances on solar flares or proton events. This page is updated daily and the sunspot images every hour.

Region 2672
Number of
sunspots Size Class Magn. Class Spot Location
10 -2 130 -10 EAI N07W20

Flare probabilities
C M X Proton
45% 10% 1% 1%
Solar flares from today
B1.6 B1.4
Back to top
Current data suggest that it is not possible to see aurora now at middle latitudes
Active geomagnetic conditions expected
The solar wind speed is currently moderately high (520.6 km/sec.)

Latest news

Sunday, 20 August 2017 - 07:31 UTC
M1.2 solar flare, C7.0 solar flare
More news
Today's space weather
Auroral activity Minor Severe
High latitude 15% 15%
Middle latitude 1% 1%
Predicted Kp max 4
Aurora forecast HelpMore data
Solar activity
M-class solar flare 10%
X-class solar flare 1%
Sunspot regionsMore data
Moon phase
Waxing Crescent
Moon Phases Calendar
"
+ (some Almanac facts:)

"
Space weather facts
Last X-flare: 2015/05/05 X2.7
Last M-flare: 2017/08/20 M1.1
Last geomagnetic storm: 2017/08/23 Kp5 (G1)
Number of spotless days in 2017: 56
Current stretch spotless days: 2
This day in history*
Solar flares
1 1999 X1.1
2 2002 M4.6
3 1999 M2.8
4 2015 M2.2
5 2015 M2.1
Ap G
1 2015 40 G2
2 1998 30 G1
3 2000 27 G1
4 2014 19 G1
5 2003 18
*since 1994
"

 

[Stavros Kiri]

New coronal hole facing Earth appeared last Mon (2 days ago - today is Wed 30 Aug., 2017) and after that two more new groups of sun spots! Currently three groups visible ! : region 2672 (old) and the new ones 2673, 2674 ! :

For more see:
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/solar-activity/sunspot-regions
and
http://spaceweather.com/

The solar wind due to the coronal hole is expected to reach Earth tomorrow Th, Aug. 31.

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Four groups visible now. Wow! Local record.

 

[Stavros Kiri]

"

Region 2672
Number of
sunspots Size Class Magn. Class Spot Location
4 -2 70 DAO N07W81

Flare probabilities
C M X Proton
25% 1% 1% 1%
Region 2673
Number of
sunspots Size Class Magn. Class Spot Location
1 80 10 HSX S08E25

Flare probabilities
C M X Proton
5% 1% 1% 1%
Region 2674
Number of
sunspots Size Class Magn. Class Spot Location
10 5 770 280 EHO N13E42

Flare probabilities
C M X Proton
40% 10% 1% 1%
Solar flares from today
B4.9 B3.4 B4.6 B7.1 B3.7 C2.0
Region 2675 New
Number of
sunspots Size Class Magn. Class Spot Location
4 30 DRO S07W35

Flare probabilities
C M X Proton
10% 1% 1% 1%
Back to top
Current data suggest that it is not possible to see aurora now at middle latitudes
The solar wind speed is currently moderately high (623.6 km/sec.)

Latest news

Friday, 1 September 2017 - 18:03 UTC
Sunspot region 2674
More news
Today's space weather
Auroral activity Minor Severe
High latitude 20% 20%
Middle latitude 35% 10%
Predicted Kp max 5
Aurora forecast HelpMore data
Solar activity
M-class solar flare 10%
X-class solar flare 1%
B4.9 B3.4 B4.6 B7.1 B3.7 B4.8 B5.1 C2.0 C1.2
Sunspot regionsMore data
Moon phase
Waxing Gibbious
Moon Phases Calendar "
Group 2672 departing, while 2674 becomes a potential player! ...
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/news/view/298/20170901-sunspot-region-2674

 

[Blank_Stare]

Total newb here, when it comes to observing sunspots, or even observing the sun at all...

I see that your images have a location listed for where the spots are. How do you record a location on a swirling ball of gases and plasma? Is the system set up to just locate on the disk, and each image records a new location with regards to the disk top/bottom, left/right, or do you have some magical fixed point of reference, that rotates with the sun? (The sun does rotate, right?)

Since I don't know if sunspots move, looking at the locations listed doesn't really get me to a definitive answer...

Sorry if it's a stupid question, but it begged asking.

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Total newb here, when it comes to observing sunspots, or even observing the sun at all...

I see that your images have a location listed for where the spots are. How do you record a location on a swirling ball of gases and plasma? Is the system set up to just locate on the disk, and each image records a new location with regards to the disk top/bottom, left/right, or do you have some magical fixed point of reference, that rotates with the sun? (The sun does rotate, right?)

Since I don't know if sunspots move, looking at the locations listed doesn't really get me to a definitive answer...

Sorry if it's a stupid question, but it begged asking.

No stupid question at all. AR s (Active Regions) [of Sun spot groups] are dynamic and get a sequence number as they appear, where they appear. E.g. the next one will be 2676 (last one was 2675) etc.
The Sun does rotate of course, but the rotation period depends on the latitude, because the Sun is composed of a gaseous plasma (24.47 days at the equator versus 38 days at the poles) [differential rotation ...].

Regarding charting and orientation in the Sun, I am not an expert either, but I will try to learn some more and perhaps get back later.

 

[Stavros Kiri]

This is interesting. They just became 5 groups visible (one gone [2672], but two new came [2676 and, just fresh, 2677]).

2674 is the biggest (kind of huge) and 2673 seems to have just started growing.

Also time again for "eye tests". Group 2674 is also visible with unaided eye (wearing solar [eclipse] glasses of course)! You just need to know where to look, and a good vision. I saw it clearly yesterday and today (Sept. 3). By tomorrow perhaps group 2673 will also be similarly visible. We'll see.
But CAUTION: never look at the sun with naked eye, or not even with just sun glasses
(even if the sun is behind clouds). Use solar [eclipse] glasses, or other appropriate filter, with your eyes, cameras, telescopes and other instruments ...

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Still 5 groups visible right now (but not for long). 2 major huge ones (2673, 2674).

By tomorrow perhaps group 2673 will also be similarly visible.

Yep!

But CAUTION: never look at the sun with naked eye, or not even with just sun glasses
(even if the sun is behind clouds). Use solar [eclipse] glasses, or other appropriate filter, with your eyes, cameras, telescopes and other instruments ...

Also CAUTION: and in any case do not look at the Sun for long, even if you have protection (I usually observe at max 30 sec intervals, spaced out in between ...). Non visible consequences may be in effect ...

Today's update: a few M-class strong flares from group 2673. Latest one M4.21, advised about an hour ago.

Summary of current space weather facts:

Current data suggest that it is not possible to see aurora now at middle latitudes

G1 - Minor geomagnetic storm expected
The observed Kp index is 4+ but the predicted K-indice of 5- indicates that stronger geomagnetic conditions might occur at this moment.

The solar wind speed is currently moderately high (594.9 km/sec.)

The maximum X-ray flux of the past two hours is:
M4.21

S1 Space Radiation Storm
At the moment there is a minor S1 class space radiation storm active. This happens about 50 times in one solar cycle.

Latest news

Monday, 4 September 2017 - 16:35 UTC
M-class solar flares, Sunspot region 2673

Note: group region 2673 has grown rapidly into a "player" the past 48 hours. 2674 is still big and important though. The rest ones seem to be winding down, two setting soon.
So ... a lot going on in the Sun, that we usually ignore! It's not just a bright fire ball in our day sky! ...

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Just for a very short time 6 groups now visible (new one appeared, 2678). The biggest one now is 2673, which grew very rapidly the last few days. It also gave rise to significant class M- flares, which will be affecting Earth shortly (Geomagnetic storm, predicted Kp index 7, possibly even radio blackout and significant aurora activity expected). Here is some more details from SpaceWeatherLive.com:
"

Region 2673
Number of
sunspots Size Class Magn. Class Spot Location
33 5 880 200 DKC S09W35

Flare probabilities
C M X Proton
95% 55% 25% 95%
Region 2674
Number of
sunspots Size Class Magn. Class Spot Location
23 -11 680 -60 FHI N14W19

Flare probabilities
C M X Proton
75% 20% 1% 1%
Region 2675
Number of
sunspots Size Class Magn. Class Spot Location
1 -3 10 BXO S07W87

Flare probabilities
C M X Proton
5% 1% 1% 1%
Region 2676
Number of
sunspots Size Class Magn. Class Spot Location
2 -2 30 BXO S09W81

Flare probabilities
C M X Proton
5% 1% 1% 1%
Region 2677
Number of
sunspots Size Class Magn. Class Spot Location
1 -1 20 10 AXX N18E34

Flare probabilities
C M X Proton
5% 1% 1% 1%
Region 2678 New
Number of
sunspots Size Class Magn. Class Spot Location
2 10 BXO N11E40

Flare probabilities
C M X Proton
5% 1% 1% 1%
Back to top
Current data suggest that it is not possible to see aurora now at middle latitudes
The maximum X-ray flux of the past two hours is:
M7.7
S1 Space Radiation Storm
At the moment there is a minor S1 class space radiation storm active. This happens about 50 times in one solar cycle.
Latest news

Monday, 4 September 2017 - 16:35 UTC
M-class solar flares, Sunspot region 2673
More news
Today's space weather
Auroral activity Minor Severe
High latitude 10% 90%
Middle latitude 40% 45%
Predicted Kp max 7
Aurora forecast HelpMore data
Solar activity
M-class solar flare 75%
X-class solar flare 25%
Sunspot regionsMore data
Moon phase
Full Moon
Moon Phases Calendar

Space weather facts
Last X-flare: 2015/05/05 X2.7
Last M-flare: 2017/09/05 M2.3
Last geomagnetic storm: 2017/09/04 Kp5 (G1)
Number of spotless days in 2017: 56
Last spotless day: 2017/08/01
This day in history*
Solar flares
1 2011 X2.1
2 2011 M5.3
3 2012 M1.6
4 2005 M1.4
5 2014 M1.1
Ap G
1 1995 23 G2
2 2004 14
3 1994 14 G1
4 2016 13
5 2015 13
*since 1994 "

 

[davenn]

Space weather facts
Last X-flare: 2015/05/05 X2.7
Last M-flare: 2017/09/05 M2.3
Last geomagnetic storm: 2017/09/04 Kp5 (G1)
Number of spotless days in 2017: 56
Last spotless day: 2017/08/01

update ... there's been a M7.7 flare in the last 2 hrs

 

[davenn]

another update ... a X9.3 monster ... largest flare in a decade

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Thanks davenn! Wow! Waiting for the effects on Earth ... . Already caused radio blackouts in high frequencies earlier today. More M-class flares followed after those. (All these goodies from AR2673 ...)
Here is a relevant video posted today (6 Sept), a few hours ago:

For the full story read also:
https://www.space.com/38057-sun-unleashes-decades-strongest-solar-flare.html

 

[Stavros Kiri]

+ here comes the expected CME, after studying the coronagraph [announcement made over an hour ago]:
"Latest news

Wednesday, 6 September 2017 - 21:09 UTC
X9.3 earth-directed coronal mass ejection
More news"

 

[davenn]

Thanks davenn!

please call me Dave
the nn are the first and last letters of my surname

I have used davenn on the internet since the early - mid 1990's

Dave

 

[Stavros Kiri]

please call me Dave
the nn are the first and last letters of my surname

I have used davenn on the internet since the early - mid 1990's

Dave

Ok Dave

 

[Stavros Kiri]

New type IV moderate radio blackout effective (from a previous class M-flare, a couple of hours ago) and a new strong M7.36 flare the last hour ...

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Also, latest type II radio emission and another X-class flare (X1.39), from group 2673. Also more activity in between, since the last update. Looks like the Sun is having a party! ...

 

[Stavros Kiri]

A portion of AR2674 has now completely separated and became AR2679 (again 5 groups visible now, 2 major). Also the large CME arrival:
"Latest news

Friday, 8 September 2017 - 03:37 UTC
X9.3 CME impact, Severe G4 storm
More news"

Max predicted Kp index 8 (G4)! [The highest is 9 (G5).] Aurora time!

Also new strong M8.12 solar flare from group 2673, the past hour or so.

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Currently from SpaceWeatherLive.com:

"Current data suggest that there is a decent possibility that aurora can be seen now at middle latitudes

G4 - Severe geomagnetic storm
Observed Kp: 9-

The solar wind speed is currently high (742.6 km/sec.)

The direction of the interplanetary magnetic field is slightly South (-6.69nT).

The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts strong storm conditions right now (-118nT)

The maximum X-ray flux of the past two hours is:
M3

S1 Space Radiation Storm
At the moment there is a minor S1 class space radiation storm active. This happens about 50 times in one solar cycle."

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Another strong M3.79 flare, just a few minutes ago, from sunspot region 2673. So hopes for more aurora in a couple of days (max 3) !

 

[davenn]

Another strong M3.79 flare, just a few minutes ago, from sunspot region 2673. So hopes for more aurora in a couple of days (max 3) !

it's not Earth bound as the spot group is about to disappear around the limb of the sun

 

[Stavros Kiri]

it's not Earth bound as the spot group is about to disappear around the limb of the sun

I was afraid of that ... . Is that always the case when close to limb, no matter how strong is the flare? Or it depends on the angular distribution of the CME?

Yesterday (other issue), a few hours after my last post above, I witnessed myself a short-wave band Radio Blackout, which was also announced (by SpaceWeather...) at the time, but I am not sure what the origin was. The whole short-wave band was totally wiped out (for an hour or so, if I am not mistaken).

 

[davenn]

Is that always the case when close to limb, no matter how strong is the flare? Or it depends on the angular distribution of the CME?

the size and the way/direction(s) the flare erupts has a direct effect on the CME produced. That said, it isn't totally black and white.
Flares may or may not produce significant CME's and sometimes a smaller flare say a M2.2 can produce a bigger CME than a M6.1.

When it comes to flares that are pointing at an angle significantly away from the earth, they tend to have little effect umless they
produce a "full halo " CME ... You will see the term "full halo" used periodically when describing CME's

Dave

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Thanks Dave!

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Just before the culprit 2673 rotated out of view:
"Latest news

Sunday, 10 September 2017 - 16:18 UTC
X8.2 solar flare"

Currently no named sunspot regions! (may be tomorrow one ...)

But: (active as we speak)
"S3 Space Radiation Storm
At the moment there is a strong S3 class space radiation storm active. This happens about 10 times in one solar cycle."
(From SpaceWeatherLive.com)

 

[stoomart]

the size and the way/direction(s) the flare erupts has a direct effect on the CME produced. That said, it isn't totally black and white.
Flares may or may not produce significant CME's and sometimes a smaller flare say a M2.2 can produce a bigger CME than a M6.1.

Reading about the monster X9.3 event on Sept. 6 got me onto the near hit of the massive CME in 2012. As an IT professional, I'm curious about how much warning we would get if one of these Carrington events was headed straight for us, which apparently has a 12% chance of happening between 2012-2022.

Edit: Looks like DSCOVR can provide a 15-60 minute early warning from the L₁ Lagrangian point.

 

[davenn]

Edit: Looks like DSCOVR can provide a 15-60 minute early warning from the L1 Lagrangian point.

the time difference is related to the speed of the CME and these can vary significantly ... 400 to 1500+ km/sec
over 1000 km/sec is reasonably rare but 700 - 1000 km / sec is quite common for the avg to large CME

that first link you gave about the CME in 2012 was mostly good, tho there are some total inaccuracies
like this comment

All this activity would have been missed if STEREO A — the STEREO spacecraft ahead of us in Earth’s orbit and the twin to STEREO B, which trails in our orbit — had not been there to record the blast.

this is total garbage ... we have had other spacecraft orbiting at the L1 Lagrangian point for years
namely SOHO and more recently the SDO ( Solar Dynamics Observatory)
they would not have missed the eventDave

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Yesterday's X8.2 solar flare produced halo CME (partially heading towards Earth ...).


+ see
https://www.space.com/38115-sun-monster-solar-flares-seven-days.html?utm_source=notification

and
https://www.physicsforums.com/threads/aurora-alert-for-6th-and-7th-sept.924608/#post-5839107

 

[stoomart]

Yesterday's X8.2 solar flare produced halo CME (partially heading towards Earth ...).

Wow, is this flurry of major flares very unusual? Solar warming perhaps? : )

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Wow, is this flurry of major flares very unusual? Solar warming perhaps? : )

I think it's just a final breakout before solar minimum. But rare, indeed!
Or it may be a random, but normal, fluctuation in the solar cycle.

 

[davenn]

Yesterday's X8.2 solar flare produced halo CME (partially heading towards Earth ...).

So far there hasn't been any warnings relating to that flare. I suspect it is just too far around the limb to be significantly geo-effective

On the other hand, there has been a warning released for a CME relating to the coronal hole that will probably cause unsettled to active conditions with probability of some auroral activity

 

[Stavros Kiri]

So far there hasn't been any warnings relating to that flare. I suspect it is just too far around the limb to be significantly geo-effective

On the other hand, there has been a warning released for a CME relating to the coronal hole that will probably cause unsettled to active conditions with probability of some auroral activity

Here is what I found:
1. "S2 Solar Radiation Storm
Infrequent effects on HF radio through polar regions and satellite operations" (as we speak)
2. R2 Radio emission (beginning ~07:29 UTC) [lasting/lasted about an hour or so] ... (I think, because I lost the original alert)
3. Latest news

Monday, 11 September 2017 - 16:42 UTC
X8.2 coronal mass ejection
4. Latest news

Monday, 11 September 2017 - 23:01 UTC
Coronal hole faces Earth

(Source: SpaceWeatherLive.com and spaceweather.com)

What do you make of those?

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Here is what is interesting from the CME link (#3 above):
A) "Yesterday's X8.2 (R3-strong) solar flare from sunspot region 2673 was one of the most spectacular solar flares we have ever seen. Not only was this the second strongest solar flare of the current solar cycle, it also launched an extremely fast and broad coronal mass ejection. What a way to say goodbye! Let's hope it survives its 2 week journey on the far side of the Sun!

As a matter of fact, sunspot region 2673 was already behind the western limb when the solar flare erupted. We will never know for sure but this event might have been even stronger than an X8.2 solar flare if sunspot region 2673 was still present on the earth-facing side of the solar disk. You can find more information in yesterday's news article.

Following the flare, we quickly reached the strong S3 solar radiation storm level which only takes place about 10 times during a 11 year solar cycle. Possible effects of the ongoing S3 solar radiation storm are: degraded HF radio propagation at polar regions and navigation position errors, satellite effects on imaging systems and solar panel currents, significant radiation hazard to astronauts on extra-vehicular activity (EVA) and high-latitude aircraft passengers."B) "The flanks of a coronal mass ejection are always a bit slower than the bulk so we can't go with 2.700km/s but the transit time should still be around one and a half day or about 36 to 40 hours (calculated with SARM) which puts the expected impact time of this coronal mass ejection at 06:00 UTC on 12 September 2017 with a plus/minus of 6 hours. Note that the NOAA SWPC has a much later impact time late on September 13 which was a surprise to us.

It remains to be seen how strong the magnetic field will be at impact as this is a value that can disappoint with these glancing blows but a distinct increase in the solar wind speed up to at least 700km/s should be possible. A minor G1 geomagnetic storm will be possible after the plasma cloud arrives."

Personaly I think that chances for aurora are slim this time.