News What are the Key Factors for Victory in the 2008 Presidential Election?

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AI Thread Summary
The discussion centers on the electoral significance of Hispanic and Black voters in the upcoming Obama-McCain election, highlighting that New Mexico's 5 electoral votes may not be pivotal despite its Hispanic population. Eligible Hispanic voters total approximately 17 million, while Black voters are around 24 million, compared to 151 million White voters, indicating a demographic imbalance. Concerns are raised about the potential impact of a Hispanic vice-presidential candidate for Obama, with opinions divided on whether it would significantly sway Hispanic votes. The conversation also touches on the importance of the vice-presidential picks for both candidates, especially considering McCain's age and the historical context of racial tensions surrounding Obama. Overall, the thread emphasizes the need for informed discussions about voter demographics and electoral strategies as the election approaches.

Who will win the General Election?

  • Obama by over 15 Electoral Votes

    Votes: 16 50.0%
  • Obama by under 15 Electoral Votes

    Votes: 6 18.8%
  • McCain by over 15 Electoral Votes

    Votes: 4 12.5%
  • McCain by under 15 Electoral Votes

    Votes: 6 18.8%

  • Total voters
    32
  • #301
Defennder said:
I'll bet a week from now, we'll see a "McCain Wins Election" ad.

Save it. Could be a collector's item like the "Dewey Beats Truman" headlines in the papers in 1948.
 
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  • #302
Ruben Navarrette - Commentary: McCain has his priorities straight
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/09/26/navarrette.obama.mccain/index.html
Earlier this week, McCain abruptly suspended his campaign and requested that the debate be postponed until Congress finishes the heavy lifting of approving a bailout. That put Obama and McCain in a classic Mexican standoff with each trying to look presidential, while attempting to map out a course that would benefit him politically.
. . .
After all the doom and gloom, pundits were then somehow surprised when McCain decided to temporarily suspend his presidential campaign and return to his day job in Congress, where he tried to work out a bailout deal with his colleagues. Well at least most of his colleagues.

Despite having decried the economic crisis in near-apocalyptic terms in an attempt to lay blame on President Bush and, by association, McCain, the junior senator from Illinois didn't feel the urgency to show up for work and try to do what he could to address it. Obama certainly has standing and more than his share of influence. This is, after all, the de-facto leader of the Democratic Party.
. . . .
OK - that's one version of what happened. But, . . .

http://www.cnn.com/2008/SHOWBIZ/TV/09/26/letterman.mccain.rant.ap/index.html
The late-night CBS comedian was upset Wednesday when McCain canceled an appearance to deal with the economic crisis.

After backing out of the Letterman show, McCain sat for an interview with Katie Couric, then didn't leave New York until Thursday, further angering Letterman.

So, apparently what did happen is that McCain delayed his return to Washington (so he didn't rush back), and when he got there, he disrupted the discussion (he huddled with GOP House members), and apparently did not try to work out anything with most of his colleagues, unless colleagues refers only to GOP members who oppose the bailout.

Meanwhile Obama reamins in touch with Congressional leaders.

Assuming an agreement was reached, then McCain and Obama can return Saturday to Washington. No need to pretend on McCain's part.
 
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  • #303
Here's Letterman's reaction, hillarious.

But it was prelude to the wrath of Letterman after McCain canceled an appearance on his show -- especially when Letterman found out that McCain was still doing an interview with Couric at CBS News.

“I’m more than a little disappointed by his behavior,” Letterman said of McCain's decision to cancel his appearance on the show and suspend his campaign until Congress passes a bailout plan.

“We’re suspending the campaign -- suspending it because there’s an economic crisis, or because the poll numbers are sliding?”

“You don’t suspend your campaign -- something about this stinks,” Letterman continued, using a phrase he would repeat over and over throughout the show. “Do you suspend your campaign? No, because that makes me think maybe there will be other things down the road, like if he’s in the White House, he might just suspend being president. I mean, we've got a guy like that now!”

Adding insult to injury, Letterman brought on MSNBC host and left-wing attack dog Keith Olbermann as the substitute guest for McCain.

During his chat with Olbermann, Letterman used the in-house CBS cameras and monitors to show McCain being readied for his interview with Couric on the set of the CBS Evening News.

“He doesn’t seem to be racing to the airport, does he?” Letterman said referring to McCain's call earlier in the day when he told Letterman he was canceling because "the economy is cratering" and he has to rush back to Washington to work on a Wall Street bailout plan.

“Hey John, I got a question! You need a ride to the airport?” Letterman yelled at the TV monitor as the in-house camera showed McCain talking to Couric.

The audience howled in delight at the merciless edge of Letterman's anti-McCain barbs. The comedian also repeatedly asked why McCain didn't send Palin in his place -- suggesting the GOP handlers were afraid that she couldn't handle it.

http://weblogs.baltimoresun.com/entertainment/zontv/2008/09/couric_letterman_too_much_for.html
 
  • #304
CNN said:
...where he tried to work out a bailout deal with his colleagues.

I just don't see where that has happened at all. He's not been a part of any of the negotiations. He didn't even speak out in the meeting with the President by taking any position at all, even though he clearly knew his buddy Boehner was going to pee on the parade. I don't think he has yet to articulate a position other than what Obama has crafted.

And why did he know? Because he had apparently argued at the Republican Caucus that he needed a crisis if his candidacy was going to be successful and if they didn't want to have to be a smaller minority in the Congress they had to monkey wrench it.

Whatever happened it was so guileless that no one outside of Fox News has been fooled as to who had forced the disruption, and that rather than mediating, McCain's role has been that of petulant agitator desperate to save a sagging campaign.
 
  • #305
Evo said:
Here's Letterman's reaction, hillarious.

Getting the Late Night audiences against you is a swift current to swim against. That's middle America independents.
 
  • #306
McCain's got another audience against him from the get-go.
Rich Lowry said:
One side effect of McCain's debate gambit is, I'm told, that everyone at Ole Miss now hates him. It will make for a very hostile audience tonight among those students and faculty attending. He might have to apologize for creating the uncertainty or make some explanation up front, which is never ideal.
http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZGMyMzdkMDk3NzNmM2EzMmRmNDAzYTZhMjlhM2Y4MzI=

Not an ideal situation for McCain, who will need some positive audience reaction for his spinners to use to proclaim his stunning victory in the debate.
 
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  • #307
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080926/ap_on_el_pr/candidates_debate
McCain had also said he would suspend all campaign activities, but in reality the campaign just shifted to Washington while the work of trying to win the election went on.

McCain had taken a gamble with the move, trying to appear above politics and as a leader on an issue that had overshadowed the presidential campaign and given him trouble. But Democratic rival Barack Obama had not bowed to McCain's challenge, and instead questioned why the Republican nominee couldn't handle two things at once — the debate and involvement in the bailout negotiations.

An Associated Press-Knowledge Networks poll out Friday just before McCain's announcement showed the public overwhelmingly wanted the candidates to debate, 60 percent to 22 percent, with the rest undecided.

By Friday morning, it appeared McCain was looking for a face-saving way to get to the debate even though a deal had not been reached. He met with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., and House Minority Leader John Boehner, R-Ohio, before heading to his campaign headquarters and issuing a statement that blamed others in Washington for the failure to reach an agreement.
It seemed they had an agreement until McCain showed up. Is this an example of McCain snatching defeat from the jaws of victory?

A president has to be able to handle two or more things at once. Apparently, McCain can't handle that. Will McCain call time outs during his presidency if he is elected?
 
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  • #308
Who's to Blame for the Bailout Deal's Stumble?
http://news.yahoo.com/s/time/whostoblameforthebailoutdealsstumble
John McCain arrived on Capitol Hill early Thursday afternoon just as a bipartisan group of senators and representatives were announcing they had reached an agreement on the broad outlines of a bill to bail out Wall Street. For a moment, as the press conference broke up, members of the media traveling with McCain mingled with reporters covering the Hill. "Wait, there's a deal?" one surprised McCain reporter asked his congressional colleague.

That one question summed up the confused state of a high-stakes day in the nation's capital that only got more confusing as the hours passed. For a few hours, it looked as if McCain, who came to Washington with the stated goal of helping to hammer out a final deal, had shown up just minutes too late to speed along the once-stalled negotiations. Then McCain, his Democratic rival Barack Obama and congressional leaders from both parties went to the White House for what some billed as a photo-op, a public showing of bipartisan support for a piece of legislation that Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and the President himself have called absolutely vital to preventing economic collapse. Reporters waited and waited on the rainy White House driveway expecting to hear from the two candidates, only to be informed by Senator Richard Shelby, the top Republican on the Senate Banking Committee, that there was no deal.

With the fate of the bailout bill in peril, it's not clear whether the presence of the presidential candidates is doing more damage than good. Members of both parties emerged from that meeting accusing each other of playing politics with the crucial legislation. Both sides to some degree are right. Less than 40 days from the presidential election, this crisis has been anything but the shining moment where candidates transcend politics and come together for the good of the country - as McCain suggested it should be when he suspended his campaign and asked to postpone Friday's debate until a deal could be worked out.
. . . .
So what caused the breakdown of a $700 billion rescue package that at one point seemed to have been amended to everyone's liking - with limits on executive compensation, more protections for taxpayers and homeowners, and additional oversight of the buying and selling of Wall Street's toxic mortgage-backed securities? . . . .
Deal or No Deal?
 
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  • #309
I guess it will be me, the cat, and dog watching the debate tonight. They never seem to offer much in the way of opinions, unfortunately. :frown:
 
  • #310
I wouldn't mind at all if Obama called McCain reckless in his efforts to lift his sagging campaign. While I'm sure McCain will retreat at warp speed to saying that his action was solely motivated by his love for his country, this has been such a totally self serving political move as to be pretty obvious to anyone not watching Fox News. There they apparently think even his b.o. is perfume.
 
  • #311
Evo said:
I guess it will be me, the cat, and dog watching the debate tonight. They never seem to offer much in the way of opinions, unfortunately. :frown:
They'll probably give you opinions as valuable as all the talking heads who will be falling over themselves to spin the debate for their candidate.
 
  • #312
"It seemed they had an agreement until McCain showed up. Is this an example of McCain snatching defeat from the jaws of victory?"

Honestly, McCain's campaign is looking pretty desperate. As such, a gambit like this isn't really that inappropriate. I think this will be remembered as the week that he lost the election though.
 
  • #313
What time is the debate on at? And what stations are showing it?
 
  • #314
Art said:
What time is the debate on at? And what stations are showing it?

9:00 PM EST and more stations than you can shake a stick at.
 
  • #315
LowlyPion said:
9:00 PM EST and more stations than you can shake a stick at.
Thanks LowlyPion. I'm in Ireland so I only get a few US stations such as Fox and CNN but if it's on several no doubt one of them will have it if I'm still awake at 2 a.m. that is.
 
  • #316
Art said:
Thanks LowlyPion. I'm in Ireland so I only get a few US stations such as Fox and CNN but if it's on several no doubt one of them will have it if I'm still awake at 2 a.m. that is.
I'm sure CNN will carry it. It will probably be on the internet by the morning.
 
  • #317
Art said:
Thanks LowlyPion. I'm in Ireland so I only get a few US stations such as Fox and CNN but if it's on several no doubt one of them will have it if I'm still awake at 2 a.m. that is.

Yes, it is on CNN and Fox News and Fox and MSNBC and ABC, NBC, CBS, CSPAN, BBC America, PBS, and in Spanish on Telefutura and in French TV5Monde.
 
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  • #318
LowlyPion said:
Yes, it is on CNN and Fox News and Fox and MSNBC and ABC, NBC, CBS, BBC America
You forgot C-SPAN and PBS stations, those are the English speaking channels covering it.
 
  • #319
Evo said:
You forgot C-SPAN and PBS stations, those are the English speaking channels covering it.

Yeah. I have those too now.

I note that TV Kuwait is not carrying it though.
 
  • #320
LowlyPion said:
I note that TV Kuwait is not carrying it though.
You apparently have more channels than I do. :-p
 
  • #321
Evo said:
You apparently have more channels than I do. :-p

1951

But a number are radio. And I didn't mention the radio stations that are carrying it. There is an Asian and Indian station that I didn't find, but seeing as how its for Ireland and all ...
 
  • #322
Evo said:
I guess it will be me, the cat, and dog watching the debate tonight. They never seem to offer much in the way of opinions, unfortunately. :frown:


Sure, they do. Their opinion is probably that a little petting is much more important than two guys yelling to each other :approve: Ask them.
 
  • #323
The McCain-Obama debate -

Ouch! That hurt my ears.

Obama was not as smooth as I expected, and didn't sound like a great orator. McCain was smoother, but offered the same old tired rhetoric.

I turned it off when McCain mentioned that we have to drill off-shore.

Frankly, I could have done a better job addressing federal spending, taxes, the bailout, energy, healthcare, eductaion, national security, . . . .

I going to read a book.
 
  • #324
Astronuc said:
The McCain-Obama debate -

Ouch! That hurt my ears.

Obama was not as smooth as I expected, and didn't sound like a great orator. McCain was smoother, but offered the same old tired rhetoric.

I turned it off when McCain mentioned that we have to drill off-shore.

Frankly, I could have done a better job addressing federal spending, taxes, the bailout, energy, healthcare, eductaion, national security, . . . .

I going to read a book.

I agree, I wonder if Biden would do a better job against Palin in the VP Debate.
 
  • #325
Both came off very well, but I've got to say that Obama completely changed my impression of him tonight. I never cared for Obama, never thought he was that great at speaking, but tonight, he was awesome. He was to the point and had great, focused statements.

So, I take back any reservations on Obama that I had, tonight won me over. He is the only choice.

Just on health care alone, Obama is the only choice. McCain's tax credit for Americans to "shop around" is insane. Obviously he has no idea what getting health insurance is like. He is apparently oblivious to the fact that if you have a pre-existing condition, you will be virtually unable to get health insurance to cover it at any cost. McCain is clueless on health insurance. And he wants to tax my health insurance?
 
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  • #326
SkyNews here, an affiliate of Fox News, gave it hands down to Obama. Although they thought both of their spiels were the standard stock fare delivered a hundred times before they thought Obama's presentation style was vastly superior to McCain's and they thought that McCain badly underperformed on what was supposed to be his strong suit.

Personally I thought Obama looked a hell of a lot more comfortable than when he debated with Clinton and looked by far the more presidential of the two candidates.

So far McCain has always far outperformed Obama in polls on the issue of foreign policy, it will be interesting to see if this debate changes the numbers.
 
  • #327
I count myself as an Obama supporter, and while I believe he didn't make any gaffes, tonight he failed to score a knockout against McCain. That doesn't mean he didn't "win", or whatever you guys mean when you say "win".

Anyway, while I think he did better against McCain than against Hillary in the primaries, he just wasn't as Astronuc put it, "smooth" enough.
 
  • #328
BUWAHAHAHAHA.

On CNN, they just had a great interview with Biden, impressive. Wolf said he would have hoped that Palin would also have been willing to talk and the host says "Don't hold your breath on that one".

:smile:
 
  • #329
I was disappointed in the way Obama spoke about Iraq and Afghanistan. McCain made the proper point that regardless of whether Iraq was a good idea in the first place or not the next president will have to deal with the fallout. Obama simply continued to criticize the original decision. I'm bothered that he doesn't seem to want to discuss in a clear fashion what he thinks ought to be done. What bothers me more is that he kept talking about Afghanistan and sending more troops there. He seemed to be invoking the desire for vengence and probably for little other reason than to show he is not 'soft' and will support military actions. "...and kill Osama bin Laden" was probably the worst part of what he said.
 
  • #330
After carefully listening to the debate, and of course totally discounting and laying aside any mild bias that I may possibly have harbored prior to the debate, I thought that Obama did the far better job.

McCain was petulant, disdainful, not always answering the question directly and tended to ramble. What a sour loser.

If Obama was to be faulted it was perhaps for being a little too gracious and diplomatic and maybe even could have been more provocative in needling McCain. But his account of things seemed the more reasoned.
 
  • #331
TheStatutoryApe said:
I was disappointed in the way Obama spoke about Iraq and Afghanistan. McCain made the proper point that regardless of whether Iraq was a good idea in the first place or not the next president will have to deal with the fallout. Obama simply continued to criticize the original decision. I'm bothered that he doesn't seem to want to discuss in a clear fashion what he thinks ought to be done. What bothers me more is that he kept talking about Afghanistan and sending more troops there. He seemed to be invoking the desire for vengence and probably for little other reason than to show he is not 'soft' and will support military actions. "...and kill Osama bin Laden" was probably the worst part of what he said.
Actually Obama gave a time frame of 16 months to start (I think) withdrawals. I definitely remember 16 months.
 
  • #332
LowlyPion said:
After carefully listening to the debate, and of course totally discounting and laying aside any mild bias that I may possibly have harbored prior to the debate, I thought that Obama did the far better job.

McCain was petulant, disdainful, not always answering the question directly and tended to ramble. What a sour loser.

If Obama was to be faulted it was perhaps for being a little too gracious and diplomatic and maybe even could have been more provocative in needling McCain. But his account of things seemed the more reasoned.
McCain is being faulted for talking about the past. There was very little about the future, too much about talking about "the way it was", "what I remember".
 
  • #333
Evo said:
Both came off very well, but I've got to say that Obama completely changed my impression of him tonight. I never cared for Obama, never thought he was that great at speaking, but tonight, he was awesome. He was to the point and had great, focused statements.

So, I take back any reservations on Obama that I had, tonight won me over. He is the only choice.

Just on health care alone, Obama is the only choice. McCain's tax credit for Americans to "shop around" is insane. Obviously he has no idea what getting health insurance is like. He is apparently oblivious to the fact that if you have a pre-existing condition, you will be virtually unable to get health insurance to cover it at any cost. McCain is clueless on health insurance. And he wants to tax my health insurance?

Astronuc, after all of your rants and screaming and tirades on here, have you changed your mind? I've notice that you don't seem to have a side in this anymore. I know you can't vote, but I noticed a change.

Yeah , he had that " forward " - moving on with what matters - agenda about him that really came on display while McCain was constantly ridiculing him on naivety all the while alluding to his infinite wisdom and appearing disgusted by Obama. I found this aspect of McCain disturbing and dispicable. He never faced Obama during the debate to acknowledge him. If I was Obama I may have just went on a verbal tirade by being immensely annoyed by him. McCain played the self righteous game - throwing stuff at Obama while wrapping himself in delusion - and I hate him for this ... While Obama maintained composure and kept his head.
 
  • #334
TheStatutoryApe said:
I was disappointed in the way Obama spoke about Iraq and Afghanistan. McCain made the proper point that regardless of whether Iraq was a good idea in the first place or not the next president will have to deal with the fallout. Obama simply continued to criticize the original decision. I'm bothered that he doesn't seem to want to discuss in a clear fashion what he thinks ought to be done. What bothers me more is that he kept talking about Afghanistan and sending more troops there. He seemed to be invoking the desire for vengence and probably for little other reason than to show he is not 'soft' and will support military actions. "...and kill Osama bin Laden" was probably the worst part of what he said.

I tend to agree that Obama could have made better position statements on Iraq/Afghanistan and not have dwelled so heavily on "getting Osama", but then I think I need to consider the debate was for a broad slice of Americans, including those that have possibly snickered at the Obama bin Biden bumper stickers. Being tough on Osama. Tough on Muslim Extremists is likely an important base that he needs to touch.
 
  • #335
Evo said:
Actually Obama gave a time frame of 16 months to start (I think) withdrawals. I definitely remember 16 months.

I know he wants to pull out. McCain says he wants to pull out too but only when it is safe to do so. He says he wants to 'win'. Obama never gave any reason why his plan, if one exists, is preferable to McCain's. He never tried to draw McCain out on what he plans to do other than 'win'. Rather it seemed to me that McCain was drawing Obama out. He just deflected it and distracted with talk of Afghanistan.

I'm just criticizing because I like him and expect better than that.
 
  • #336
The first thing I thought of when I heard Obama mention about getting Osama and taking the eyes off the ball on Afghanistan and onto Iraq was "Didn't Kerry say the same thing 4 years ago in the first debate? "
 
  • #337
Interesting on CNN, with a group of "undecided' voters in Ohio, 64% gave the debate to Obama.
 
  • #338
The Republicans are trying to spin it that because Obama agreed with some of McCain's points and McCain didn't agree with any of his, that it was a great victory. I think that is a rather stunning calculus, as if choosing something arbitrary like say the number of prepositional phrases had anything to do with the power of the arguments.
 
  • #339
LowlyPion said:
The Republicans are trying to spin it that because Obama agreed with some of McCain's points and McCain didn't agree with any of his, that it was a great victory. I think that is a rather stunning calculus, as if choosing something arbitrary like say the number of prepositional phrases had anything to do with the power of the arguments.
It's a common tactic to say you agree with an opponent in order to not alienate those that agree with your opponent, then say how you disagree. I have been through years of training on how to debate and negotiate, this is Negotiation 101.
 
  • #340
Evo said:
It's a common tactic to say you agree with an opponent in order to not alienate those that agree with your opponent, then say how you disagree. I have been through years of training on how to debate and negotiate, this is Negotiation 101.

Yes, and in particular I think he is trying to appeal to the undecided independents who are looking for someone who is willing to work across the aisle. I also think McCain missed the boat on this one. McCain was trying to drive the point of experience but instead appeared condescending. That will appeal to McCain's base but apparently not many of the undecided voters.
 
  • #341
CNN's poll of polls has Obama up by 48-43 today [pre-debate].

With Michigan and Penn now listed as leaning Obama [up by at least 7%], the CNN electoral map shows Obama 240, McCain 200. The rest are within the margin of error for the polls. It takes 270 electoral votes to win.
http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/
 
  • #342
Evo said:
...Just on health care alone, Obama is the only choice. McCain's tax credit for Americans to "shop around" is insane. Obviously he has no idea what getting health insurance is like. He is apparently oblivious to the fact that if you have a pre-existing condition, you will be virtually unable to get health insurance to cover it at any cost. McCain is clueless on health insurance. And he wants to tax my health insurance?...
No, he wants to cut us loose from the employer based tax break and the employer playing doctor. You get a personal tax break instead.

The employer based health care deduction is the primary reason for out of control health costs in the US. The US starting doing this by accident in WWII as consequence of war wage and price controls. Because of this, most people on employer plans don't know or care about the true cost of most medical services. At my recent employer which had good health plans, the full PPO family plans ran $20k/yr, with 1/2 - 2/3 of that paid by the employer. As a sometime consultant I keep an eye on private plans: MSA same plan/insurer w/ high deductible runs ~60% less. I found most people w/ the big employer were unaware of the total cost. The key to fixing health care is to bring the costs down, coverage is secondary (coverage <> health care).

Pre-existing or chronic illnesses are an issue and that has to be fixed as employers are cut loose from playing doctor. McCain proposes GAPs:
http://www.johnmccain.com/Informing/Issues/19ba2f1c-c03f-4ac2-8cd5-5cf2edb527cf.htm
A Specific Plan of Action: Ensuring Care for Higher Risk Patients

John McCain's Plan Cares For The Traditionally Uninsurable. John McCain understands that those without prior group coverage and those with pre-existing conditions have the most difficulty on the individual market, and we need to make sure they get the high-quality coverage they need.

John McCain Will Work With States To Establish A Guaranteed Access Plan. As President, John McCain will work with governors to develop a best practice model that states can follow - a Guaranteed Access Plan or GAP - that would reflect the best experience of the states to ensure these patients have access to health coverage. One approach would establish a nonprofit corporation that would contract with insurers to cover patients who have been denied insurance and could join with other state plans to enlarge pools and lower overhead costs. There would be reasonable limits on premiums, and assistance would be available for Americans below a certain income level.

I understand many people would like to keep things just the way they are w/ their employer tax free plans, but it is an untenable situation. Costs are growing exponentially, and not just because of the aging population and not just because of new expensive technology. They are growing because the health care receiver doesn't pay the provider. That has parallels with the subprime problem at hand: bundled and resold mortgages where the mortgage buyer down the line didn't actually know what it was worth. So either we fix the cost problem or as masses of people fall off unaffordable plans the government will be forced to nationalize the whole thing. Choose your poison.

Edit: Health Affairs came out this month w/ an eval of both plans: McCain will cut health costs, Obama will drive them up, Obama will get more people covered.
 
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  • #343
Evo said:
Interesting on CNN, with a group of "undecided' voters in Ohio, 64% gave the debate to Obama.

I was just watching the debate again on CNN with the dynamic + or - responses shown. It appears that the Independents and the Democrats were trending the same more than not. The gap between the Dems and Inds is almost always smaller than the gap between the Reps and Inds. And the moment McCain mentioned Palin - indirectly - the Independents dropped like a rock, just slightly behind the Dems.
 
  • #344
mheslep said:
No, he wants to cut us loose from the employer based tax break and the employer playing doctor. You get a personal tax break instead.
That's what McCain says. Here is what he's really planning.

Adrenaline had originally posted this, she's a doctor.

adrenaline said:
Does anyone else think this is a bad idea?

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/16/opinion/16herbert.html?hp

A study coming out Tuesday from scholars at Columbia, Harvard, Purdue and Michigan projects that 20 million Americans who have employment-based health insurance would lose it under the McCain plan.



For starters, the McCain health plan would treat employer-paid health benefits as income that employees would have to pay taxes on.

“It means your employer is going to have to make an estimate on how much the employer is paying for health insurance on your behalf, and you are going to have to pay taxes on that money,” said Sherry Glied, an economist who chairs the Department of Health Policy and Management at Columbia University’s Mailman School of Public Health.

According to the study: “The McCain plan will force millions of Americans into the weakest segment of the private insurance system — the nongroup market — where cost-sharing is high, covered services are limited and people will lose access to benefits they have now.”

The net effect of the plan, the study said, “almost certainly will be to increase family costs for medical care.”
 
  • #345
Evo said:
Just on health care alone, Obama is the only choice. McCain's tax credit for Americans to "shop around" is insane. Obviously he has no idea what getting health insurance is like. He is apparently oblivious to the fact that if you have a pre-existing condition, you will be virtually unable to get health insurance to cover it at any cost. McCain is clueless on health insurance. And he wants to tax my health insurance?
I agree with this assessment. When McCain talks about tax credits for health insurance, he doesn't seem to get it that those who can't afford health insurance also don't pay much in the way of taxes - because their incomes are too low.

There are about 47 million Americans without health insurance (I wonder if that includes illegal aliens and migrant workers).
http://www.nchc.org/facts/coverage.shtml

The emphasis needs to be on 'prevention' rather than treatment, which can be way too expensive.


Obama was correct on the privatization of Medicare/Medicaid. The private companies are making millions, and the elderly (based on family experience) are underserved or ill-served in some (many) cases.
 
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  • #346


A significant Obamaward swing in some of the maps, following bailout week:

Electoral maps (Obama/McCain):
Code:
                     AGGREGATES OF CURRENT POLLS                 |     PROJECTIONS
                                                                 |
Date      RCP1     RCP2     CNN   Elec-Vote  USAtlas-A  Pollster | Elec-Proj  USAtlas-P   
                                                                      
06/21   238/163  289/249  211/194  317/194    271/191            |  349/189    298/240
06/26   238/163  317/221  211/194  317/194    288/180            |  338/200    298/240 
07/01   238/163  304/234  231/194  317/221    268/180            |  338/200    293/245 
07/06   238/163  304/234  231/194  320/218    268/177            |  338/200    293/245
07/11   238/163  304/234  231/194  320/215    268/188            |  306/232    293/245
07/16   255/163  304/234  231/194  320/204    268/177            |  311/227    293/245
07/21   255/163  322/216  231/194  312/199    268/172   293/214  |  298/240    293/245
07/26   238/163  322/216  221/189  292/195    264/175   284/147  |  338/200    298/240
08/11   238/163  322/216  221/189  289/236    264/202   284/157  |  298/240    293/245
08/21   228/174  264/274  221/189  264/261    264/210   260/191  |  264/274    293/245
08/26   228/174  273/265  221/189  273/252    259/210   260/176  |  273/265    293/245
09/06   238/174  273/265  243/189  301/224    259/194   260/179  |  278/260    293/245                                                                           
09/16   207/227  286/252  233/189  247/257    216/246   243/219  |  273/265    273/265
09/26   228/163  286/252  240/200  286/252    264/185   229/174  |  273/265    273/265
 
  • #347
I could see 55% of the popular vote for Obama and 45% for McCain, but I would not be surprised if it went 60/40 Obama/McCain.
 
  • #348
Ivan Seeking said:
... but instead appeared condescending. That will appeal to McCain's base but apparently not many of the undecided voters.

Oh it was like tossing puppy kibble to the 101 Dalmatians. They were lapping that stuff up on Fox. But I think I could see the sad realizations in the eyes of the Fox Anchors that they don't really believe this, because McCain is like already used spit to the real conservatives, who really only have lust in their hearts for Palin, and Obama, even to them, didn't sound all that unPresidential.
 
  • #349
LowlyPion said:
and Obama, even to them, didn't sound all that unPresidential.

I noticed that Obama was doing well with Republicans a number of times in the dynamic trending. And the pundits were saying exactly the same thing. Even to the Republican pundits, Obama looked Presidential.
 
  • #350
Ivan Seeking said:
I noticed that Obama was doing well with Republicans a number of times in the dynamic trending. And the pundits were saying exactly the same thing. Even to the Republican pundits, Obama looked Presidential.

Coming on the heels as it did of the disastrous McCain ploy to dramatically return to Washington to pose for his portrait as the executive in charge, sabotaging the bailout that was on track to get things done, all in the name of partisan aggrandizement, McCain was already on the fast track to looking decidedly Un-Presidential before he even arrived in Oxford.

While he didn't drool or misplace any global hemisphere's in the debate, he looked to me more irascible and irritated - that the grand script the Republican handlers had plotted for his trajectory had gone awry - than he was engaged in the issues or inspiring to the Nation beyond of course to the Conservative base.

With so many divisive issues facing the country from Foreign policy to economic developments to energy security, Obama was the one that inspired some degree of confidence that he would make sound decisions, seeking compromise and consensus, in place of the ideologically popular choices that the current administration has employed.
 
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