Police Study: Astrological Evidence in Tail of Normal Distribution

AI Thread Summary
The discussion centers on the use of astrological signs to predict arrest rates, referencing a study that suggests a correlation between zodiac signs and criminal behavior. The article mentioned claims that Aries individuals are arrested more frequently, which is supported by Georgia Nicols, a horoscope writer. However, the analysis of the data reveals a normal distribution, where the focus on a specific tail of the distribution exemplifies the Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy—drawing conclusions from arbitrary data points. The probability of observing a specific number of arrests in a given month is low, indicating that annual variations in arrest rates are likely more significant than any correlation with astrological signs. The conversation emphasizes the importance of critical thinking and skepticism when interpreting such claims.
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Astrological "evidence" produced by looking at the tails of a normal distribution

I just ran across this on a large news aggregation website, so I'm sure some people here might have seen it as well.

http://www.inquisitr.com/173752/jail-time-predetermined-by-astrology-signs-says-police-study/

But just because the police don’t see the value in such a list doesn’t mean that the pattern isn’t there. Georgia Nicols, who writes the National Post’s horoscope, said that it isn’t surprising to her that Aries are arrested the most.

“Aries is the sign of the warrior. Aries rules the military. Aries jump in head first, and love adventure. A lot of people in the newsroom are Aries.”

If you look at the data, it appears to be a gaussian distribution, which shouldn't be too surprising. They just picked one of the tails (and it isn't even an extreme outlier, maybe 1 or 2 sigma, I haven't done the math) and are trying to attach some significance to it.

This is commonly known as the Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy, where this article is drawing a bullseye around the outlier.

I'm sure this isn't the first time people have tried using outliers in a normal distribution to show evidence for astrology (or any number of other woo-woo claims). So, it's important to keep your tools sharp in your baloney detection kit, and keep an eye out for this sort of thing.
 
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The probability that the worst month will have 203 or more arrests is calculable, and is 3.4%. I can't get excited about that.
 


I'm willing to bet that if they tracked data for multiple years, the annual variation would be similar to or exceed variation based on birth date.
 

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