I think there is a simple way to determine whether a retrograde satellite will crash or not:
Calculate the minimal radius for an orbit - for most objects, it will be the Roche limit, for very small objects it might be smaller. Calculate the orbita period of the satellite in this distance. Assume that both satellite and main body rotate with that period, and that the satellite is in this orbit (with the same direction as the initial rotation). Calculate the total angular momentum. If the initial angular momentum is smaller, the system does not have a stable configuration - the satellite will disintegrate and/or crash. If the initial angular momentum is larger, there is some stable configuration with a larger radius - which can be calculated, too.Numbers :).
Moon has an angular momentum of 2.87*10
34 Js.
Earth has an angular momentum of approxinately 0.71*10
34 Js (with the approximation of a perfect sphere of constant density).
I neglect the angular momentum from the movement of Earth (around the common center of mass) and the rotation of the moon, as they are of the order of the last digit.
If our moon suddenly moves in the opposite direction, the total angular momentum of the system is the difference between those numbers, 2.16*10
34 Js.
In equilibrium with locked rotation:
Capital letters (V,M,R) refer to orbital parameters of Earth (around the common center of mass), lower-case letters (v,m,r) are parameters of the moon. ω is the common angular velocity.
I'll solve the system for r.
##v = \sqrt{\frac{\mu^2MG}{m^2r}}## where ##\mu=\frac{Mm}{m+M}## is the reduced mass.
##MR=mr## (center of mass system)
##MV=mv## (center of mass system)
##\omega=\frac{v}{r} = \sqrt{\frac{\mu^2MG}{m^2r^3}}##
We have 4 contributions to the total angular momentum:
##mrv=\sqrt{\mu^2 MG r}## orbital momentum of moon
##MRV=\frac{m}{M}\sqrt{\mu^2 MG r}## orbital momentum of earth
##\frac{2}{5}m r_{moon}^2 \sqrt{\frac{\mu^2MG}{m^2r^3}}## rotational momentum of moon (r
moon is its physical radius)
##\frac{2}{5}M r_{earth}^2 \sqrt{\frac{\mu^2MG}{m^2r^3}}## rotational momentum of earth
Now we can use the known parameters of the system:
##\frac{m}{M}=\frac{1}{81.3}##
##m=7.35*10^22kg##
##\sqrt{\mu^2MG}=1.449 \cdot 10^{30}\frac{kg\, m^{3/2}}{s}##
##\frac{2}{5}m r_{moon}^2 = 8.87 \cdot 10^{34}kg\, m^2##
##\frac{2}{5}M r_{earth}^2 = 9.72 \cdot 10^{37}kg\, m^2##
and solve the equation (sum of all 4 components)=2.16*10
34 Js for r. I drop the units, as they are all compatible.
##1.449\cdot10^{30}\cdot\sqrt{r} + 1.516 \cdot 10^{45} \cdot r^{-3/2} = 2.16\cdot10^{34}##
This has
two solutions:
r
1=21900km (15% above the
roche limit for moon)
r
2=212000km
The second solution is unexpected... maybe it is a stable solution, but requires different initial conditions to be reached.
Edit: No, the second solution is the relevant one. The orbit of moon is the dominant source of angular momentum, so it does not take too much to stop and re-accelerate Earth in the opposite direction.
With the current orbit (same direction as rotation of earth), I get
r
1=13500km (not possible)
r
2=607000km (that looks good as final distance)